Understading vaccine efficacy

[watu05]

Cool, so make an effort to explain what many people would see as a lack of correlation between govt. response and outcome at the global level(and state level in the US) rather than just saying “lol don’t you even believe in #science bro.”

This is a big problem for public health experts whose recommendations failed to achieve the promised results at nearly every turn. The arrogance to not feel you have to explain why your didn’t work is astounding. Failure of anyone in the profession to own up to anything or convey uncertainty will come back to bite us next time because no one will listen any recommendation. “The public just wasn’t obedient enough” won’t cut it.

What is your evidence that the consistently followed public health didn't deliver the promised results? The US sure didn't follow anything consistently and earned the predicted results.

I'd suggest reading Michael Lewis' book Premonition to learn more about how the US public health system works and doesn't work. Discussing this topic on the basis of one extremely high level chart is pointless.

 

[URedskin54]

What is your evidence that the consistently followed public health didn't deliver the promised results?

This is an amazing sentence. We could pick out any number of proclamations, but we'll start with "wearing masks in public would save hundreds of thousands of lives." Understand, these proclamations were made with no caveats. It was just "simply wearing masks without doing anything else will make a huge difference." Here in El Paso compliance has been as close to 100% as you can get with local mask mandates. We had one of the worst outbreaks in the world and at one time more than 50% of people in our county's hospitals were covid patients. Are you really going to pretend that the mask mandate (with good compliance) actually worked?

Of course it didn't, because masks are not worn at home where most transmission occurs. So perhaps our health experts should at least have to explain why they said something so stupid.

Discussing this topic on the basis of one extremely high level chart is pointless.

Luckily no one said to do that

 

[watu05]

This is an amazing sentence. We could pick out any number of proclamations, but we'll start with "wearing masks in public would save hundreds of thousands of lives." Understand, these proclamations were made with no caveats. It was just "simply wearing masks without doing anything else will make a huge difference." Here in El Paso compliance has been as close to 100% as you can get with local mask mandates. We had one of the worst outbreaks in the world and at one time more than 50% of people in our county's hospitals were covid patients. Are you really going to pretend that the mask mandate (with good compliance) actually worked?

Of course it didn't, because masks are not worn at home where most transmission occurs. So perhaps our health experts should at least have to explain why they said something so stupid.



Luckily no one said to do that

Public health programs worked in Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand and elsewhere where it was implemented in a timely, consistent manner. I'm sure you are right about El Paso, but when did they start? We know for sure now that Covid is airborne. My experience in the state of Washington is the opposite of El Paso. Trump called our governor a 'snake' for taking steps early, but we did well despite being the first place in the country to report a Covid outbreak in an old folks home. The one area in the state that suffered the worst was the area perhaps a bit like El Paso, the Yakima valley, which has a large population of Latino farm workers whose working conditions and wages are among the poorest in the state.

 

[astonmartin708]

Cool, so make an effort to explain what many people would see as a lack of correlation between govt. response and outcome at the global level(and state level in the US) rather than just saying “lol don’t you even believe in #science bro.”

This is a big problem for public health experts whose recommendations failed to achieve the promised results at nearly every turn. The arrogance to not feel you have to explain why your didn’t work is astounding. Failure of anyone in the profession to own up to anything or convey uncertainty will come back to bite us next time because no one will listen any recommendation. “The public just wasn’t obedient enough” won’t cut it.

I wasn’t saying that you couldn’t be correct that those metrics might correlated, I’m just saying as someone who’s been doing a lot of data science in the past few years that I have many reservations as to what that graph actually points to... especially because the variables you’re looking at are conglomerated values which are throwing about a million variables, which are changing over time, into a single fixed one. Reducing dimensionality of your dataset like that is complicated even when you’re talking about non-subjective things like is a car red or blue or if it has an automatic transmission or it’s a standard. A lot of the sub variables used to create that metric aren’t concrete and they introduce a lot of bias and uncertainty. So, any correlation you see at the end might be influenced by that bias and uncertainty.

 

[URedskin54]

I wasn’t saying that you couldn’t be correct that those metrics might correlated, I’m just saying as someone who’s been doing a lot of data science in the past few years that I have many reservations as to what that graph actually points to... especially because the variables you’re looking at are conglomerated values which are throwing about a million variables, which are changing over time, into a single fixed one. Reducing dimensionality of your dataset like that is complicated even when you’re talking about non-subjective things like is a car red or blue or if it has an automatic transmission or it’s a standard. A lot of the sub variables used to create that metric aren’t concrete and they introduce a lot of bias and uncertainty. So, any correlation you see at the end might be influenced by that bias and uncertainty.

I think that’s kind of the point though. Throughout the pandemic experts and ordinary people alike have been making statements with a high degree of certainty on things where imo there is not a high degree of certainty, because there are so many variables that affect any outcome.

There are a number of examples of cases declining in a given area and experts boldly proclaiming that it was due to the public following their advice, while at the same time saying that outbreaks continued in other areas because the public was not following their advice, even though there was no meaningful difference in behavior or policy. There’s nothing scientific about that. A reasonable person might conclude that at times there are limitations to what public policy can do, and during this pandemic those limitations have shown themselves but experts and politicians haven’t been very honest about those limitations.

All I’m saying is that I don’t have confidence that many of the recommendations were as effective as promised and that it would make sense for public health experts to be honest to the public about where these measures failed, where there is uncertainty about efficacy, and where outcomes were bad despite following CDC guidance and what the explanations for those outcomes are. If their only explanation for bad outcomes is “you didn’t behave well enough” not only is that embarrassingly shallow intellectually, but I’m willing to bet blaming the public for stuff like that actually goes against best practice guidelines within the profession.

 

[astonmartin708]

I think that’s kind of the point though. Throughout the pandemic experts and ordinary people alike have been making statements with a high degree of certainty on things where imo there is not a high degree of certainty, because there are so many variables that affect any outcome.

There are a number of examples of cases declining in a given area and experts boldly proclaiming that it was due to the public following their advice, while at the same time saying that outbreaks continued in other areas because the public was not following their advice, even though there was no meaningful difference in behavior or policy. There’s nothing scientific about that. A reasonable person might conclude that at times there are limitations to what public policy can do, and during this pandemic those limitations have shown themselves but experts and politicians haven’t been very honest about those limitations.

All I’m saying is that I don’t have confidence that many of the recommendations were as effective as promised and that it would make sense for public health experts to be honest to the public about where these measures failed, where there is uncertainty about efficacy, and where outcomes were bad despite following CDC guidance and what the explanations for those outcomes are. If their only explanation for bad outcomes is “you didn’t behave well enough” not only is that embarrassingly shallow intellectually, but I’m willing to bet blaming the public for stuff like that actually goes against best practice guidelines within the profession.

What it reminds me of, is trying to tell kids to eat their vegetables / to stop eating candy. Everyone (including the child) knows it’s good for them, but temporary but immediate pleasure (or a lack of displeasure) is more meaningful to them than long term benefit.
It’s a bit of a lack of discipline in our society. Not a lack of regulation, but an intolerance to adhere to regulation.

 

[watu05]

There are a number of examples of cases declining in a given area and experts boldly proclaiming that it was due to the public following their advice, while at the same time saying that outbreaks continued in other areas because the public was not following their advice, even though there was no meaningful difference in behavior or policy.

Many factors can explain this given the difference in locations, especially in the short term and as the virus spread

There’s nothing scientific about that.

Science is a method of exploring what we don't know, and Covid was a novel virus. Expecting perfect knowledge at the outset is not science either. What public health did know was the if you isolate people from each other the virus won't spread. Epidemiologists start with initial assumptions based on limited data and constantly update their projections by revising their assumptions as better data comes in. Pressure by the public and from politicians to to ignore the problem or deliver a particular outcome is what crushes the science.

.A reasonable person might conclude that at times there are limitations to what public policy can do, and during this pandemic those limitations have shown themselves but experts and politicians haven’t been very honest about those limitation

Agree about public policy limits and politicians, and some public health officials many of whom were subject to being fired by elected politicians. For example, Reagan made the head of the CDC a political appointee to control messaging about AIDS. Deborah Birx was an appointee when she claimed it was safe to open up last summer. Fauci is a civil servant therefore more (but not completely) isolated from political pressures and remained more consistent and independent.

 

[URedskin54]

I’ll respond to more when I have time but I’ll just say that the FOIA dump of Fauci’s emails doesn’t point to a completely transparent and honest discussion with the public

 

[shon46]

I’ll respond to more when I have time but I’ll just say that the FOIA dump of Fauci’s emails doesn’t point to a completely transparent and honest discussion with the public

It’s bad. That guy should have been fired long ago. People touted him as their savior and turns out he was a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

 

[astonmartin708]

I saw nothing that was revealing in his emails. Lots of what you would expect from an administrator in the early days of the pandemic. He was wrong on a few issues (like mask wearing) early on. But he changed his tune later on. Trump was still throwing out lies despite his administration being told by Fauci and others that they were lies.

 

[watu05]

Test case in Northern California. California has Covid under control except where public health measures are being flaunted.

“After largely avoiding the worst of the pandemic, a block of far northern California counties now leads the state with nearly 40 cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, according to statistics maintained by the Los Angeles Times. Tehama county ranked the highest in the LA Times case ratings with 139 cases per 100,000 residents. Meanwhile 10 of the 21 total Covid deaths in nearby Siskiyou county have occurred since the beginning of May.”

 

[URedskin54]

Test case in Northern California. California has Covid under control except where public health measures are being flaunted.

“After largely avoiding the worst of the pandemic, a block of far northern California counties now leads the state with nearly 40 cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, according to statistics maintained by the Los Angeles Times. Tehama county ranked the highest in the LA Times case ratings with 139 cases per 100,000 residents. Meanwhile 10 of the 21 total Covid deaths in nearby Siskiyou county have occurred since the beginning of May.”

That's not a test case. This is what I mean about expressing certainty when there really is none. What does the bold tell you might be plausible about the reason for an outbreak? And what does it tell you about what the results of not following the guidelines have been up until recently?

 

[watu05]

That's not a test case. This is what I mean about expressing certainty when there really is none. What does the bold tell you might be plausible about the reason for an outbreak? And what does it tell you about what the results of not following the guidelines have been up until recently?

It is, however, an ongoing example of locals ignoring public health recommendations and experiencing the results public health officials predicted.
State after state has experienced the same cycle. Shut down for a while, get things under control, open up, Covid surges, repeat.
The effects of political pressures, not following the science, and our lack of a national public health system caused far more deaths than public health officials getting the science wrong. The US has the results to prove it.

 

[URedskin54]

It is, however, an ongoing example of locals ignoring public health recommendations and experiencing the results public health officials predicted.
State after state has experienced the same cycle. Shut down for a while, get things under control, open up, Covid surges, repeat.
The effects of political pressures, not following the science, and our lack of a national public health system caused far more deaths than public health officials getting the science wrong. The US has the results to prove it.

Or it’s an example of locals ignoring public health recommendations and it not making a difference for over a year. You’re getting close, but you have to look at more than just the time period that fits your preferred narrative. These are really obvious things that people refuse to come to terms with.

 

[shon46]

FauciGate.
Link to all released emails:


This is how the virus was created:


Lab leak cover up:


Asymptomatic was a lie:



"Looks engineered"

Luigi Warren on Gab: ''

Luigi Warren on Gab: ''

gab.com

Masks are ineffective:


Gain of function:

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[URedskin54]

FauciGate.
Link to all released emails:

View embedded media

This is how the virus was created:

View embedded media

Lab leak cover up:

View embedded media

Asymptomatic was a lie:

View embedded media

"Looks engineered"

Luigi Warren on Gab: ''

Luigi Warren on Gab: ''

gab.com

Masks are ineffective:

View embedded media

Gain of function:

View embedded media

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

It’s amazing to me that you can take what is a legitimate scandal about the way Fauci may have misled people at different stages, and completely discredit it with garbage

 

[shon46]

It’s amazing to me that you can take what is a legitimate scandal about the way Fauci may have misled people at different stages, and completely discredit it with garbage

😂 Bro, you eat much Crow? The same things I have been echoing here for months about the Covid lies and Fauci are finally being exposed. Guess what? It wasn’t exposed by MSM. You don’t have to like it, respect it!

 

[URedskin54]

😂 Bro, you eat much Crow? The same things I have been echoing here for months about the Covid lies and Fauci are finally being exposed. Guess what? It wasn’t exposed by MSM. You don’t have to like it, respect it!

Garbage

 

[watu05]

PolitiFact - No, emails to Fauci don’t show early agreement that virus was man-made

The release of thousands of emails to and from U.S. infectious disease chief Dr. Anthony Fauci has fueled claims that th

www.politifact.com

It is good someone actually reads and thinks about these ‘revelations’ before claiming what they mean.

 

[watu05]

A more sober examination of what is known about the origins of Covid.

PolitiFact - Debating the origins of the COVID-19 virus: What we know, what we don’t know

Confronting Dr. Anthony Fauci at a Senate committee hearing on the COVID-19 pandemic, Sen. Rand Paul argued that the Uni

www.politifact.com

 

[URedskin54]

One thing I found interesting in the emails is that indefinite lockdown seems to have always been the plan. The "2 weeks to slow the spread" and "keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed" stuff was never really the goal. Setting aside how unrealistic indefinite lockdown is here, it's apparent that Fauci and others within the trump administration were not forthright about this.

 

[watu05]

it's apparent that Fauci and others within the trump administration were not forthright about this.

Fauci was not a member of the Trump administration. He is a civil servant. The head of the CDC, Scott Atlas (quack from Stanford), and Birx were all appointed by Trump and, yes, have been far from forthright. Trump admitted to lying about the risks. That's why the POT is working so hard now to shift the blame around or continue to claim no one could have done better despite the horrendous results.

 

[URedskin54]

Agree. There obvious things people refuse to come to terms with.

Fauci was not a member of the Trump administration. He is a civil servant. The head of the CDC, Scott Atlas (quack from Stanford), and Birx were all appointed by Trump. That's why the POT is working so hard now to shift the blame around or continue to claim no one could have done better despite the horrendous results. As you said there are obvious things.......

NIH falls under the executive branch. Does anyone want to tell WATU23 who is in charge of the executive branch?

 

[watu05]

NIH falls under the executive branch. Does anyone want to tell WATU23 who is in charge of the executive branch?

Really, you don't know the difference? OK, believe what you wish, but beliefs aren't science.

 

[URedskin54]

Really, you don't know the difference? OK, believe what you wish, but beliefs aren't science.

I don’t know how to break this to you but whether or not a person is considered a member of an administration is not science no matter which position you take on it.

 

[URedskin54]

Test case in Northern California. California has Covid under control except where public health measures are being flaunted.

“After largely avoiding the worst of the pandemic, a block of far northern California counties now leads the state with nearly 40 cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, according to statistics maintained by the Los Angeles Times. Tehama county ranked the highest in the LA Times case ratings with 139 cases per 100,000 residents. Meanwhile 10 of the 21 total Covid deaths in nearby Siskiyou county have occurred since the beginning of May.”

LOL did you even click on the link you shared? If you look at the trends and the totals for the pandemic there's not even a story there

 

[shon46]

Vaccine researcher: Spike protein from COVID-19 vaccination is dangerous ‘toxin’

A new study shows that the spike protein from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Virus (COVID-19) va...

m.thebl.tv

 

[watu05]

The new variant that crippled India is now widespread in the US. Infections rates for the unvaccinated are increasing dramatically. Reducing the numbers of unvaccinated also reduces the creation of new variants.
------------
"Meanwhile, COVID-19 infections are at new lows in the United States, but the virus continues to spread in communities with low vaccination rates, where highly contagious virus variants like Delta threaten those who have not had shots.

In Smith County, Tenn., where only 20 percent of people are fully vaccinated, there has been an almost 700 percent increase in hospitalizations for COVID-19 over the past two weeks, The New York Times reported. In Trousdale, Tenn., where only 23 percent of people have had two vaccine doses, hospitalizations have also surged by 700 percent in the same period.

People who become ill with COVID-19 now are, "in most age groups, twice as likely to end up hospitalized as people who got the virus earlier in the course of the pandemic," Dr. Ted Delbridge, executive director of the Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems, told the Times".

 

[watu05]

Interesting article from the Washington Post analyzing how MSM reporting changed about where the virus came from. Some people like to be critical of MSM, but none of the right wing media would dare to publish an equivalent self examination.

 

[shon46]

Interesting article from the Washington Post analyzing how MSM reporting changed about where the virus came from. Some people like to be critical of MSM, but none of the right wing media would dare to publish an equivalent self examination.

😂 these assholes lied for months selling bs propaganda, demonizing anyone who called them on their lies and labeling them as conspiracy theorist. Their viewership and profit margin is the lowest it’s ever been. They have ZERO credibility. They should be on their hands and knees groveling and begging for mercy!

 

[URedskin54]

The New York Times, which called the COVID-19 lab leak hypothesis a "fringe ... conspiracy theory" because acknowledging the possibility at the time could have been helpful to its political opponents, has just won a pulitzer for its coverage of the pandemic. They also previously won a pulitzer for the 1619 project after large portions of it had to be retracted due to outright falsehoods. That's roughly the degree of accountability and "self-examination" in media.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Don't know if you guys saw this article, or read about any of the things mentioned in it anywhere else,. The possibilities seem like the next gen of medicine and all it's discoveries are right around the corner. mRNA!!! The cure for the common cold?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/01/health/mrna-vaccines-covid-future/index.html

 

[shon46]

Don't know if you guys saw this article, or read about any of the things mentioned in it anywhere else,. The possibilities seem like the next gen of medicine and all it's discoveries are right around the corner. mRNA!!! The cure for the common cold?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/01/health/mrna-vaccines-covid-future/index.html

Yup, you were the experiment dummy 😂

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Yup, you were the experiment dummy 😂

No I wasn't. The experiment dummy's are the ones who went through the trials.

You still can't get it through your head that this is an emergency vaccine, not an experimental vaccine. The trials took it from experimental to finished vaccine. And besides that, I didn't take it until late May. I left it to the immuno compromised and the over 65 crowd to take it first. Didn't want to take any of their places in line.

Was only fully vaccinated on the 10th of this month.(two weeks after the last shot.) That's four days ago, in case you can't count.

 

[TUMe]

Oklahoma said I was eligable then told me to go find some. Johnson and Johnson was slow out of the gate. I couldn't get VA to follow their own rules, which kept changing. Then St. Francis sent me an e-amial and said "come on down." I was there 2 minutes before I had my first shot. Reminder for the second shot. March 1 and March 22.

Government makes things harder. People who do things regularly make things simplers.

 

[astonmartin708]

Oklahoma said I was eligable then told me to go find some. Johnson and Johnson was slow out of the gate. I couldn't get VA to follow their own rules, which kept changing. Then St. Francis sent me an e-amial and said "come on down." I was there 2 minutes before I had my first shot. Reminder for the second shot. March 1 and March 22.

Government makes things harder. People who do things regularly make things simplers.

I had the opposite experience. My Covid shot was run at a government facility both times and they were quick and efficient. I think the problem in Oklahoma (that I witnessed as I tried to get my mom a vaccine) was that the local / state government there is just a bit inept. We had far fewer problems with the government in my neck of the woods (at least in terms of making sure the vaccine was appropriately distributed)

 

[shon46]

Four British Airline Pilots died in one week, Airline dismisses the vaccine link, but few convinced

British Airways lost four of its pilots this week, and social media believed the cause of the death...

thebl.tv

 

[shon46]

Short selling the Airlines means something big could possibly be on the horizon. I just threw a couple of bones 🦴 that direction.

https://fintel.io/ss/us/aal

 

[URedskin54]

Four British Airline Pilots died in one week, Airline dismisses the vaccine link, but few convinced

British Airways lost four of its pilots this week, and social media believed the cause of the death...

thebl.tv

Ah well if social media believes it I guess we’ll just have to go with it

 

[watu05]

One thing I found interesting in the emails is that indefinite lockdown seems to have always been the plan. The "2 weeks to slow the spread" and "keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed" stuff was never really the goal. Setting aside how unrealistic indefinite lockdown is here, it's apparent that Fauci and others within the trump administration were not forthright about this.

Again, if one wants to understand the way various groups in the administration participated in the pandemic, read Michael Lewis' book: Premonition. A terrific read by the author of Money Ball and the Big Short. One key point is the CDC has been increasingly politicized since Reagan made the head of the CDC a political appointee so he could control the public messaging about AIDS. The head of the NIH and Fauci are not political appointees. That there was a group of federal employees that the President couldn't fire if they followed the law and science or could disagree with him was what led to the claim that there is 'a deep state'.
I had a chance to talk to two epidemiology professors last week who had worked for the CDC before Reagan, and they confirmed that the CDC has become ineffectual over the last 40 years and was ill prepared to deal with Covid. It needs to be fixed. They give Fauci generally high marks.
Finally, the US's strategy for dealing with a pandemic was developed in 2005/6 at the direction of George Bush and that strategy was always social distancing/isolation until a vaccine could be developed.