Understading vaccine efficacy

04Watu

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From Lancet

It is imperative to dispel any ambiguity about how vaccine efficacy shown in trials translates into protecting individuals and populations. The mRNA-based Pfizer
1,
2and Moderna
3 vaccines were shown to have 94–95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, calculated as 100 × (1 minus the attack rate with vaccine divided by the attack rate with placebo). It means that in a population such as the one enrolled in the trials, with a cumulated COVID-19 attack rate over a period of 3 months of about 1% without a vaccine, we would expect roughly 0·05% of vaccinated people would get diseased. It does not mean that 95% of people are protected from disease with the vaccine—a general misconception of vaccine protection also found in a Lancet Infectious DiseasesEditorial.
4 In the examples used in the Editorial, those protected are those who would have become diseased with COVID-19 had they not been vaccinated. This distinction is all the more important as, although we know the risk reduction achieved by these vaccines under trial conditions, we do not know whether and how it could vary if the vaccines were deployed on populations with different exposures, transmission levels, and attack rates.
Simple mathematics helps. If we vaccinated a population of 100 000 and protected 95% of them, that would leave 5000 individuals diseased over 3 months, which is almost the current overall COVID-19 case rate in the UK. Rather, a 95% vaccine efficacy means that instead of 1000 COVID-19 cases in a population of 100 000 without vaccine (from the placebo arm of the abovementioned trials, approximately 1% would be ill with COVID-19 and 99% would not) we would expect 50 cases (99·95% of the population is disease-free, at least for 3 months).
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Accurate description of effects is not hair-splitting; it is much-needed exactness to avoid adding confusion to an extraordinarily complicated and tense scientific and societal debate around COVID-19 vaccines.
 

TUMe

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From Lancet

It is imperative to dispel any ambiguity about how vaccine efficacy shown in trials translates into protecting individuals and populations. The mRNA-based Pfizer
1,
2and Moderna
3 vaccines were shown to have 94–95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, calculated as 100 × (1 minus the attack rate with vaccine divided by the attack rate with placebo). It means that in a population such as the one enrolled in the trials, with a cumulated COVID-19 attack rate over a period of 3 months of about 1% without a vaccine, we would expect roughly 0·05% of vaccinated people would get diseased. It does not mean that 95% of people are protected from disease with the vaccine—a general misconception of vaccine protection also found in a Lancet Infectious DiseasesEditorial.
4 In the examples used in the Editorial, those protected are those who would have become diseased with COVID-19 had they not been vaccinated. This distinction is all the more important as, although we know the risk reduction achieved by these vaccines under trial conditions, we do not know whether and how it could vary if the vaccines were deployed on populations with different exposures, transmission levels, and attack rates.
Simple mathematics helps. If we vaccinated a population of 100 000 and protected 95% of them, that would leave 5000 individuals diseased over 3 months, which is almost the current overall COVID-19 case rate in the UK. Rather, a 95% vaccine efficacy means that instead of 1000 COVID-19 cases in a population of 100 000 without vaccine (from the placebo arm of the abovementioned trials, approximately 1% would be ill with COVID-19 and 99% would not) we would expect 50 cases (99·95% of the population is disease-free, at least for 3 months).
View related content for this article
Accurate description of effects is not hair-splitting; it is much-needed exactness to avoid adding confusion to an extraordinarily complicated and tense scientific and societal debate around COVID-19 vaccines.
I have re-read alot of facts about this and I have learned on thing...much of it is way over my head. But let me ask you a question.

Johnson and Johnson comes in around 66 percent. They also say it would have been higher but a lot of tests were performed in poorer countries. Moving right along, a lot of people are pro J-J. It doesn't have to be kept extremely cold, only one "jab" not two, and has a better efficacy than the flu shot. I'm not quite sure how the flu shot got in there. My initial slowness in understanding what was happening combined with an endless snow storm has me behind the curve. That is I have no vacinne even though I am on three waiting lists. Moderna is big here but there is alot of interest in J-J. How does one decide.
 

TUMU

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I have re-read alot of facts about this and I have learned on thing...much of it is way over my head. But let me ask you a question.

Johnson and Johnson comes in around 66 percent. They also say it would have been higher but a lot of tests were performed in poorer countries. Moving right along, a lot of people are pro J-J. It doesn't have to be kept extremely cold, only one "jab" not two, and has a better efficacy than the flu shot. I'm not quite sure how the flu shot got in there. My initial slowness in understanding what was happening combined with an endless snow storm has me behind the curve. That is I have no vacinne even though I am on three waiting lists. Moderna is big here but there is alot of interest in J-J. How does one decide.


TUMe,

Call Morton Health Services, 918 388 1990. You should be able to schedule a vaccine shot.
 
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04Watu

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The example used showed that compared to 5,000 deaths expected out of 100,000 people, 95% efficacy means only 50 people would get the virus. Apply the reduction to those who would be expected get the virus, not the entire group. Using the same caculation on the J&J vaccine means about 330 would get COVID out of 100,000. Still a huge reduction. To be fair, all this applies to a three month period used in the trial.

There are other benefits. First vaccines totally elinated deaths from infections in the trials. Getting vaccines widely distributed worldwide would also reduce the number of new variants by reducing the pool of replicating viruses and therefore the chances for mutation.

If J&J were my first option I would not hesitate, either for me or my family.
 
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aTUfan

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Just as the covid19 numbers are dropping, Biden has basically opened the border to a massive influx of illegals. Nearly 25% of the members of these groups are infected with the virus.

Millions of us just spent a year hibernating. Hiding behind a mask, washing our hands and avoiding social contract. We wre willing to sacrifice for the greater good.

Now all that effort is being threatened. Hexx I'm not allowed in my grocery store if I have a non covid related fever,
 

shon46

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Of far greater importance is expanding vaccinations worldwide to eliminate dangerous variants.

Why do you need a world wide vaccination for a virus that has a 97% recovery rate and that’s only lethal to the population over 70 or people that have 2 or more underlying health issues?
 
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04Watu

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Why do you need a world wide vaccination for a virus that has a 97% recovery rate and that’s only lethal to the population over 70 or people that have 2 or more underlying health issues?
That’s much the same agrgument used (and posted by some here) for ignoring Covid a year ago. 500,000+ dead Americans later hopefully we have reason to take things more seriously.
Equally, Covid is not a static adversary, but is constantly evolving and mutating. The more people we can vaccinate worldwide, the fewer opportunities the virus has to mutate and become more contagious and more deadly.
Finally, your post’s characterization of the virus’ effects is understated. The virus has long haul effects for those who recover, and has killed and does kill those under 70 without underlying conditions.
 
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Gmoney4WW

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Equally, Covid is not a static adversary, but is constantly evolving and mutating. The more people we can vaccinate worldwide, the fewer opportunities the virus has to mutate and become more contagious and more deadly.
He doesn't even process that if you let the virus kill millions, it might mutate and kill x10 what it would have killed b4 it mutated. If you can't keep a virus coralled for the most part, to a certain region of the world, then a vaccine is neccessary.
 
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shon46

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He doesn't even process that if you let the virus kill millions, it might mutate and kill x10 what it would have killed b4 it mutated. If you can't keep a virus coralled for the most part, to a certain region of the world, then a vaccine is neccessary.
How can you claim 500,000 deaths from Covid? The CDC website actually only says Covid related. What are Covid related deaths? We discussed this at nauseam in previous threads. Covid “related” deaths are/do not equal actual Covid deaths. I said from the beginning that the test measuring Covid was off. I was right. The test has since been adjusted. Since that adjustment was made, Infection rates have significantly dropped all over the world. Go to the CDC website and look again at the total number of Covid deaths.
 
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Gmoney4WW

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How can you claim 500,000 deaths from Covid? The CDC website actually only says Covid related. What are Covid related deaths? We discussed this at nauseam in previous threads. Covid “related” deaths are/do not equal actual Covid deaths. I said from the beginning that the test measuring Covid was off. I was right. The test has since been adjusted. Since that adjustment was made, Infection rates have significantly dropped all over the world. Go to the CDC website and look again at the total number of Covid deaths.
He's not even on the right subject.
 
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shon46

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BREAKING: Netherlands suspends use of AstraZeneca COVID vaccine due to "possible side effects" in Denmark and Norway.
 

URedskin54

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Breaking: Sticking to my long-standing posture of not giving af about what Europe thinks or is doing.

We have almost 60% of age 65+ vaccinated already. That would be a huge win even if the vaccines had terrible side effects(they don’t)
 
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shon46

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Breaking: Sticking to my long-standing posture of not giving af about what Europe thinks or is doing.

We have almost 60% of age 65+ vaccinated already. That would be a huge win even if the vaccines had terrible side effects(they don’t)
Huge win for who?
 

aTUfan

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I after my second Moderna shot I felt like crap for 36hrs. Weak and sleepy.
Small price to pay.

Life is good
 

04Watu

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Why do you need a world wide vaccination for a virus that has a 97% recovery rate and that’s only lethal to the population over 70 or people that have 2 or more underlying health issues?

So 3% of people who get the virus do not recover? Even if only 100M out 330M Americans are infected (leave out small children and school kids) that is still 3 million Americans dead from the disease. The number is already 530K and still rising. Then there are long haulers who recover but not completely. Add in the viruses constantly mutating to new forms, and for most people that is a compelling social issue.

The CDC runs QC checks on its number of Covid deaths which you can read about on their site.

IOW it is not a hoax.
 

shon46

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So 3% of people who get the virus do not recover? Even if only 100M out 330M Americans are infected (leave out small children and school kids) that is still 3 million Americans dead from the disease. The number is already 530K and still rising. Then there are long haulers who recover but not completely. Add in the viruses constantly mutating to new forms, and for most people that is a compelling social issue.

The CDC runs QC checks on its number of Covid deaths which you can read about on their site.

IOW it is not a hoax.
As I wrote in a previous post, the 530,000 is Covid related and not actual Covid deaths. When you look at the Covid only deaths, it’s on par with the flu and the common cold. I’m all about vaccinations. God only knows how many I have had in my lifetime. This is not a virus worth getting a vaccination for but I respect your views otherwise!
 

drboobay

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How can you claim 500,000 deaths from Covid? The CDC website actually only says Covid related. What are Covid related deaths? We discussed this at nauseam in previous threads. Covid “related” deaths are/do not equal actual Covid deaths. I said from the beginning that the test measuring Covid was off. I was right. The test has since been adjusted. Since that adjustment was made, Infection rates have significantly dropped all over the world. Go to the CDC website and look again at the total number of Covid deaths.
Very simple.

If you died earlier than you would have died because of Covid 19, it is a Covid related death.

It is like any other cause of death. Death is inevitable. Anything that speeds death is a contributing cause.
 

drboobay

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We also has an incredibly high number of excess deaths last year compared to recent historical trends. So you see it in the population level data too.

The first person to die of Covid in Oklahoma was in his 50s. Not his 70s.

We need to start caring more about one another. And have more trust in expertise.
 

shon46

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We also has an incredibly high number of excess deaths last year compared to recent historical trends. So you see it in the population level data too.

The first person to die of Covid in Oklahoma was in his 50s. Not his 70s.

We need to start caring more about one another. And have more trust in expertise.
Incredibly high bc the common cold and flu were mixed in with fake positives. You are right! Caring for one another means letting the fearful know If you think you are vulnerable, stay home or get a vaccination!
 

URedskin54

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Incredibly high bc the common cold and flu were mixed in with fake positives. You are right! Caring for one another means letting the fearful know If you think you are vulnerable, stay home or get a vaccination!

Look up viral interference. Flu actually did disappear this year. It’s not a testing artifact or miscategorization. Flu testing this year has come back less than 0.5% positive.
 
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shon46

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Look up viral interference. Flu actually did disappear this year. It’s not a testing artifact or miscategorization. Flu testing this year has come back less than 0.5% positive.
We have come to an impasse in regards to the way we view things. I respect your opinion however IMHO Common sense has disappeared. We are now making excuses for lies. We know it’s a lie but don’t want to believe we are being lied to. I offer you this. Watch what comes next. The war pitting vaccinated vs unvaccinated is about to begin. Biden said it starts 1 May. The question you need to ask yourself is why. We will revisit this like we do every other post when the time comes.
 

URedskin54

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We have come to an impasse in regards to the way we view things. I respect your opinion however IMHO Common sense has disappeared. We are now making excuses for lies. We know it’s a lie but don’t want to believe we are being lied to. I offer you this. Watch what comes next. The war pitting vaccinated vs unvaccinated is about to begin. Biden said it starts 1 May. The question you need to ask yourself is why. We will revisit this like we do every other post when the time comes.

Yeah sorry, you can’t say you respect someone’s opinion and then say they lack common sense. Fwiw I do not respect your opinion on this because you’ve given in to conspiratorial nonsense when there are reasonable logical explanations for things that do not require a coordinated conspiracy from every government in the world. The common sense train left the station for you long ago.

Understanding that experts sometimes make political calculations and lie because they are human beings doesn’t mean you throw out everything and every data point that is put out. Part of being an intelligent adult is the ability to discern between the two(or at least make an effort to) and not just say “everything is a lie.”
 
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aTUfan

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Mexico president complains that the US isn't helping them get enough vacine.

How about they help us at the border?
 
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shon46

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Yeah sorry, you can’t say you respect someone’s opinion and then say they lack common sense. Fwiw I do not respect your opinion on this because you’ve given in to conspiratorial nonsense when there are reasonable logical explanations for things that do not require a coordinated conspiracy from every government in the world. The common sense train left the station for you long ago.

Understanding that experts sometimes make political calculations and lie because they are human beings doesn’t mean you throw out everything and every data point that is put out. Part of being an intelligent adult is the ability to discern between the two(or at least make an effort to) and not just say “everything is a lie.”
When all other dissenting scientific voices are silenced in a coordinated effort worldwide, supposedly in the name of unity of science, I hop off of the mainstream train! That type of behavior is called Fascism! (Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism[1][2]characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition and strong regimentation of society and of the economy). I decided what’s best for me, not Fauci or some other gov. By censoring doctors with other views, they have taken away my right to ask for a second opinion. In your book that’s ok and normal and acceptable behavior. I however find that behavior to be highly suspicious and untrustworthy. I respect your opinion because I respect our constitution that provides everyone with the ability to express their opinion. On this topic, I agree to disagree with you!
 
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TUMe

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When all other dissenting scientific voices are silenced in a coordinated effort worldwide, supposedly in the name of unity of science, I hop off of the mainstream train! That type of behavior is called Fascism! (Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism[1][2]characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition and strong regimentation of society and of the economy). I decided what’s best for me, not Fauci or some other gov. By censoring doctors with other views, they have taken away my right to ask for a second opinion. In your book that’s ok and normal and acceptable behavior. I however find that behavior to be highly suspicious and untrustworthy. I respect your opinion because I respect our constitution that provides everyone with the ability to express their opinion. On this topic, I agree to disagree with you!
There are more people on this board plus Football and Basketball boards who are high risk by age and past medical history than you think. I don't know of anyone being forced to take the vaccines and in reality it was more people wanting them than could be scheduled during the early days. It seems to me that the Fascists are those who don't want them to have access. I go back for my second Pfizer shot one week from today. No jack-booted Nazi is making me go. Yes everyone dies, but most people are not in any hurry. And most younger people have older family that they care about.

It is about time you give up your silliness of denying what everyone knows. Covid-19 is dangerous and can mutate to be more so.
 

shon46

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There are more people on this board plus Football and Basketball boards who are high risk by age and past medical history than you think. I don't know of anyone being forced to take the vaccines and in reality it was more people wanting them than could be scheduled during the early days. It seems to me that the Fascists are those who don't want them to have access. I go back for my second Pfizer shot one week from today. No jack-booted Nazi is making me go. Yes everyone dies, but most people are not in any hurry. And most younger people have older family that they care about.

It is about time you give up your silliness of denying what everyone knows. Covid-19 is dangerous and can mutate to be more so.
I have never made an argument for suppressing someone from getting the vaccination. My view is if you are willing to be a test subject for a drug that injects programmable nano bots into your blood stream wrapped in the cells of an aborted fetus with the process named Lucifer, you get whatever comes your way. The media working under the guidance of Fauci, China, and the WHO have scared people into believing this is on the same level as polio or the Black Plague and that’s as far from the truth as can be. Controlling the media and eliminating all other remedies other than the ones pushed by The Who, Fauci, and China is the exact definition of Fascism! We all have leave this Earth one day but I will be damned if I walk around this earth living in fear of a virus that has a 99.7% recovery Rate for the majority of the worlds population.
 
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TUMe

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I have never made an argument for suppressing someone from getting the vaccination. My view is if you are willing to be a test subject for a drug that injects programmable nano bots into your blood stream wrapped in the cells of an aborted fetus with the process named Lucifer, you get whatever comes your way. The media working under the guidance of Fauci, China, and the WHO have scared people into believing this is on the same level as polio or the Black Plague and that’s as far from the truth as can be. Controlling the media and eliminating all other remedies other than the ones pushed by The Who, Fauci, and China is the exact definition of Fascism! We all have to go one day but I will be damned if I walk around this earth living in fear of a virus that has a 99.7% recovery Rate for the majority of the worlds population.
Good for a minute I thought you were making an argument against vaccination.
 

Gmoney4WW

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Blood Clots happen. They have not correlated them as being caused by the vaccines, and are halting the vaccine use temporarily out of ultra extreme caution. They will attempt to make the correlation and likely fail. Then the vaccine use will be reinstated. (Wow, what a coincidence that blood clots happen while giving a vaccine to the elderly, and immunocompromised. That never happens.)

Mr alien/nanobot will use anything to speak against the vaccines that he is supposedly supporting, but not. Passive aggressive reactions to the hilt, as always. He subconsciously thinks the passive/aggressive reactions makes him seem logical when they do not.
 
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shon46

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Blood Clots happen. They have not correlated them as being caused by the vaccines, and are halting the vaccine use temporarily out of ultra extreme caution. They will attempt to make the correlation and likely fail. Then the vaccine use will be reinstated. (Wow, what a coincidence that blood clots happen while giving a vaccine to the elderly, and immunocompromised. That never happens.)

Mr alien/nanobot will use anything to speak against the vaccines that he is supposedly supporting, but not. Passive aggressive reactions to the hilt, as always. He subconsciously thinks the passive/aggressive reactions makes him seem logical when they do not.
Lol 😂 you are such a quack! So now Europe is conspiring to intentionally tank the AstraZeneca vaccination? 🤣🤣🤣 I implore you to put the bottle down. Whose the conspiracy theorists now 🤣🤣🤣. Im not an anti vaccination person at all. Some vaccinations are absolutely necessary however the COVID vaccination is not necessary for most of us and that’s why I don’t support it. If you want it, go get it! Everyone should be able to choose when they meet their maker!
 
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