Understading vaccine efficacy

[astonmartin708]

To follow up on my points to G$ and

And those people are dumb, like Kanye

fair enough. I don’t think the government responded well during Katrina, but I think that was partially do to the machinations of the government. (Which I think can also partially be attributed to America’s response with Covid)

Just to make a point, if our government had a pandemic response similar to that of France or Germany, based upon the number of deaths per million citizens of each of the respective countries, the US would have only suffered between approximately 368K deaths and 555K deaths. Now, like I said, I think a good proportion of those excess deaths can be attributed to the mechanizations of our government being inefficient or more divisive (call the number of extra deaths somewhere between 51K and 238K) but if we even attribute a small percentage of those excess deaths to Trump’s actions during the pandemic we’re still potentially talking about thousands to tens of thousands of people dying simply because of his bullcrap. I would say that’s lightyears worse than Jimmy Carter and should be acknowledged as such in perpetuity. That’s all before we even talk about the issues surrounding his impeachments.

P.S. I chose those two countries because they were neighboring a country with an early severe outbreak and they have semi-reasonable governments with decent-ish leaders and comparative medical tech and economic resources to the US.

 

[watu05]

To follow up on my points to G$ and

fair enough. I don’t think the government responded well during Katrina, but I think that was partially do to the machinations of the government. (Which I think can also partially be attributed to America’s response with Covid)

If one compares the US outcome with that in Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea or Canada, the numbers are even more damning for the US.

The CDC's performance had been on the down slope since Reagan changed the head of the CDC from a civil service job to a political appointment so he could control the messaging about AIDS. From that point on, the CDC's communications have been run through the White House. Every new administration can pick it's own public health mouth piece.

Faucci, however, was protected by his status as a civil servant which requires cause to fire hire him.

 

[astonmartin708]

If one compares the US outcome with that in Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea or Canada, the numbers are even more damning for the US.

The CDC's performance had been on the down slope since Reagan changed the head of the CDC from a civil service job to a political appointment so he could control the messaging about AIDS. From that point on, the CDC's communications have been run through the White House. Every new administration can pick it's own public health mouth piece.

Faucci, however, was protected by his status as a civil servant which requires cause to fire hire him.

I’m not sure those island nations are quite apples to apples.

 

[URedskin54]

Canada is the only one approaching comparable, but even then it's the population of California spread over a continent. And no one who's ever been anywhere in Canada not named Toronto or Vancouver would believe that their results were due to superior compliance with government guidelines.

 

[astonmartin708]

Canada is the only one approaching comparable, but even then it's the population of California spread over a continent. And no one who's ever been anywhere in Canada not named Toronto or Vancouver would believe that their results were due to superior compliance with government guidelines.

Agreed. I don’t expect Canada. But some of the European nations I could see. Italy obviously did worse than us but they were the tip of the sword in the western world and they aren’t quite as well off politically or economically as we are.

 

[TUMe]

Australia is a bad example. It's low numbers are because of an extreme lock downs that could continue until the Summer of 22. Citizens who are in other countries, now, are pretty well stuck there. Australia has a history of isolation.

 

[watu05]

Australia is a bad example. It's low numbers are because of an extreme lock downs that could continue until the Summer of 22. Citizens who are in other countries, now, are pretty well stuck there. Australia has a history of isolation.

Disagree. Their lock downs worked. Australia is a western liberal democracy that took and is taking consistent public health measures that work despite no vaccine. For example their testing rate was #2 in the world behind NZ and was coupled with contact tracing, while the US slow walked testing and basically did no contact tracing. Australia had 10% of the cases per capita that the US did and an even smaller fraction of the deaths on a per capita basis. I have friends who live in Sydney who are very positive about the government handled it.

 

[watu05]

Here's a scorecard In January just before vaccines began to really roll out and change the picture.

• If the US had the same death rate as the European Union overall, nearly 79,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive (unless they died of other causes).
• If the US had the same death rate as Germany, more than 212,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive.
• If the US had the same death rate as Canada, nearly 225,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive.
• If the US had the same death rate as Australia, nearly 361,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive. Fewer than 12,000 would have died, compared to the 365,000 who died in reality.
• If the US had the same death rate as Japan, nearly 363,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive — and fewer than 10,000 Americans would have died of the disease.

 

[shon46]

Here's a scorecard In January just before vaccines began to really roll out and change the picture.

• If the US had the same death rate as the European Union overall, nearly 79,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive (unless they died of other causes).
• If the US had the same death rate as Germany, more than 212,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive.
• If the US had the same death rate as Canada, nearly 225,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive.
• If the US had the same death rate as Australia, nearly 361,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive. Fewer than 12,000 would have died, compared to the 365,000 who died in reality.
• If the US had the same death rate as Japan, nearly 363,000 Americans who died of Covid-19 would likely still be alive — and fewer than 10,000 Americans would have died of the disease.

Thank God Trump created CCP vaccination 💉

 

[URedskin54]

Disagree. Their lock downs worked. Australia is a western liberal democracy that took and is taking consistent public health measures that work despite no vaccine. For example their testing rate was #2 in the world behind NZ and was coupled with contact tracing, while the US slow walked testing and basically did no contact tracing. Australia had 10% of the cases per capita that the US did and an even smaller fraction of the deaths on a per capita basis. I have friends who live in Sydney who are very positive about the government handled it.

We of course can’t ask the follow up question “why did their lockdowns work” because the answer to that would blow up your argument. Australia and NZ are not the only countries that locked down hard. Some did ok and some weren’t any better than us.

 

[TUMe]

The problem with a hard lockdown is that you have to come out sometime. If you can wait for vaccine, then it worked. If not then you are back to where we were a year ago. Hopefully not to where we were last Summer. It's their business, I have never been to Australia.

 

[aTUfan]

Not sure what Trump did or didn't do, but Biden is just a Monday morning QB.

 

[watu05]

The problem with a hard lockdown is that you have to come out sometime. If you can wait for vaccine, then it worked. If not then you are back to where we were a year ago. Hopefully not to where we were last Summer. It's their business, I have never been to Australia.

It is not just a hard lockdown. They acted early enough for aggressive testing and contract tracing to limit its spread. Also Australia had effective national leadership and did not polticize public health measures. Their results speak for themselves. So do ours.

 

[shon46]

Kind of hard to act with so much disinfo and lies coming from the CCP and the organizations they control. Remember, the former administration tried to act by locking down travel and was demonized and stopped by the Liberal CCP bought mob. That in itself could have prevented thousands upon thousands of deaths so while Trump made significant mistakes, the liberals have blood on their hands as well. Let’s hope this new lawsuit can get justice for those who were taken from us way too early.

1,000 Lawyers and 10,000 Doctors Join Together and File Lawsuit to Prosecute the "2nd Nuremburg Tribunal" Against Corona Fraud Scandal

Thousands of attorneys and doctors have joined forces to sue the CDC, WHO and the Davos Group for crimes against humanity. Humansarefree reported in March: Should the technocrats who pushed governments to lockdown their citizens be tried for crimes against humanity? One prominent German lawyer...

www.thegatewaypundit.com

 

[TUMe]

It is not just a hard lockdown. They acted early enough for aggressive testing and contract tracing to limit its spread. Also Australia had effective national leadership and did not polticize public health measures. Their results speak for themselves. So do ours.

Whether or not the lockdown is hard has nothing to do with other actions, they can contribute to it but it can be a very strict lockdown. There was a long article on BBC news that the people of Australia aren't as happy with the lock down as others think. They are not letting Aussies comeback from India. It makes sense unless it is you or your familly. The US has always allowed Americans to return, perhaps with isolation periods but allowed them to return.

Now a confession, I was going to copy that article but when I went back to BBC it had been pulled down. It was quite recent so maybe they got flack over it. I should have folded my tent and cancelled my post. But I tried to summarize it. It seems the number of people who want to keep on with the strict lockdown is falling. Families are divided. They have done really well, as you say but some are starting to enough

 

[shon46]

Whether or not the lockdown is hard has nothing to do with other actions, they can contribute to it but it can be a very strict lockdown. There was a long article on BBC news that the people of Australia aren't as happy with the lock down as others think. They are not letting Aussies comeback from India. It makes sense unless it is you or your familly. The US has always allowed Americans to return, perhaps with isolation periods but allowed them to return.

Now a confession, I was going to copy that article but when I went back to BBC it had been pulled down. It was quite recent so maybe they got flack over it. I should have folded my tent and cancelled my post. But I tried to summarize it. It seems the number of people who want to keep on with the strict lockdown is falling. Families are divided. They have done really well, as you say but some are starting to enough

Thousands of people were out protesting today all over the UK against the lockdowns. They are an absolute joke in terms of effectiveness.

 

[astonmartin708]

I think it's telling that Mexico has a lesser amount of deaths per capita than the US does. If we can't expect to perform better than Mexico, then we need to rethink some things.

 

[watu05]

Whether or not the lockdown is hard has nothing to do with other actions, they can contribute to it but it can be a very strict lockdown. There was a long article on BBC news that the people of Australia aren't as happy with the lock down as others think. They are not letting Aussies comeback from India. It makes sense unless it is you or your familly. The US has always allowed Americans to return, perhaps with isolation periods but allowed them to return.

Now a confession, I was going to copy that article but when I went back to BBC it had been pulled down. It was quite recent so maybe they got flack over it. I should have folded my tent and cancelled my post. But I tried to summarize it. It seems the number of people who want to keep on with the strict lockdown is falling. Families are divided. They have done really well, as you say but some are starting to enough

Give us a break. The US had disastrous covid results compared to other countries, and supposedly we had the most advanced medical system in the world. The difference was a lack of leadership and politicizing a public health crisis. The results speak for themselves. Hundreds of thousands of Americans died unnecessarily.

 

[aTUfan]

absolutely, Trump should have followed the Coumo model.

 

[shon46]

I think it's telling that Mexico has a lesser amount of deaths per capita than the US does. If we can't expect to perform better than Mexico, then we need to rethink some things.

They Mexican call it natural selection!

 

[TUMe]

Give us a break. The US had disastrous covid results compared to other countries, and supposedly we had the most advanced medical system in the world. The difference was a lack of leadership and politicizing a public health crisis. The results speak for themselves. Hundreds of thousands of Americans died unnecessarily.

The subject isn't US results. The subject is the Australian lockdowns. There is some talk of them continuing for another year. They have done great, but at some point you have to declare victory and go back towards "normal." How would you feel if you had family stuck in India? There could be isolation and imunization.

How did the US get involved? Trump is gone and hopefully won't be back. We led the world in vaccines development.

 

[TUMe]

Just so you know I'm not making this up.

'Fortress Australia': Why calls to open up borders are meeting resistance

Many Australians are loath to relax border controls despite experts warning of the harms of isolation.

www.bbc.com

Australians stuck overseas 'abandoned' by their own country

Australians in India are the latest group to feel abandoned by their government amid virus fears.

www.bbc.com

 

[shon46]

Superparamagnetic nanoparticle delivery of DNA vaccine - PubMed

The efficiency of delivery of DNA vaccines is often relatively low compared to protein vaccines. The use of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) to deliver genes via magnetofection shows promise in improving the efficiency of gene delivery both in vitro and in vivo. In particular...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[URedskin54]

I think it's telling that Mexico has a lesser amount of deaths per capita than the US does. If we can't expect to perform better than Mexico, then we need to rethink some things.

I'm not saying there's nothing to this, but I do think that any theory of mitigation that says the stringency of govt. policy was one of or the major factor must at least attempt to explain why there are states that had much more stringent policies than Mexico but ended up with worse results. I'm not saying these policies have no impact. It just seems to me that some things that are outside of our control, regardless of how dumb and erratic our leader was, had a much greater impact than policy. I'm not completely open minded on this. Clearly I have a position. But I'm not completely unpersuadable either. I just don't see anyone trying to explain why there are not just outliers, but also a seeming lack of correlation globally between strong govt. response and fewer deaths. Maybe it's not possible to account for every confounding variable and isolate govt policy stringency, but I'd like to see some of the really smart people try.

 

[shon46]

I'm not saying there's nothing to this, but I do think that any theory of mitigation that says the stringency of govt. policy was one of or the major factor must at least attempt to explain why there are states that had much more stringent policies than Mexico but ended up with worse results. I'm not saying these policies have no impact. It just seems to me that some things that are outside of our control, regardless of how dumb and erratic our leader was, had a much greater impact than policy. I'm not completely open minded on this. Clearly I have a position. But I'm not completely unpersuadable either. I just don't see anyone trying to explain why there are not just outliers, but also a seeming lack of correlation globally between strong govt. response and fewer deaths. Maybe it's not possible to account for every confounding variable and isolate govt policy stringency, but I'd like to see some of the really smart people try.

That study is absolutely necessary. Things have been leaked here and there but nothing definitive. If I were a betting man, I bet the answer is related to blood type and diet.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

That study is absolutely necessary. Things have been leaked here and there but nothing definitive. If I were a betting man, I bet the answer is related to blood type and diet.

If it were at all related to blood type, doctors and scientists would have seen signs and trends and already studied that.

 

[watu05]

Just so you know I'm not making this up.

'Fortress Australia': Why calls to open up borders are meeting resistance

Many Australians are loath to relax border controls despite experts warning of the harms of isolation.

www.bbc.com

Australians stuck overseas 'abandoned' by their own country

Australians in India are the latest group to feel abandoned by their government amid virus fears.

www.bbc.com

It’s a choice they made. Australia doesn’t have same access to vaccines the US does, so they have to hold on longer. Not easy pill to swallow but one that has saved tens of thousands or more of lives. As your article states, inside Australia life has resumed close to normal. Unlike the US they had leadership willing to make tough decisions instead of abdicating responsibility to states.

Even with 50% of adults with one shot, the US is still running at 450 Covid deaths a day.

 

[URedskin54]

It’s a choice they made. Australia doesn’t have same access to vaccines the US does, so they have to hold on longer. Not easy pill to swallow but one that has saved tens of thousands or more of lives. As your article states, inside Australia life has resumed close to normal. Unlike the US they had leadership willing to make tough decisions instead of abdicating responsibility to states.

Even with 50% of adults with one shot, the US is still running at 450 Covid deaths a day.

Poor leadership aside, it’s not a choice the US could have realistically implemented for obvious reasons. An easy way to tell is the fact that when Biden became president essentially nothing changed policy-wise.

450 people are not dying of covid per day right now. That’s reported deaths and many of those reported deaths occurred all the way back in 2020. US is likely close to negative weekly excess death right now

 

[watu05]

Poor leadership aside, it’s not a choice the US could have realistically implemented for obvious reasons. An easy way to tell is the fact that when Biden became president essentially nothing changed policy-wise.

Biden came in as vaccines altered the situation dramatically. A better example would have been if he had taken office last May or June and changed nothing. He did put real juice behind vaccinations which Trump did not.

However, since the US also doesn't have a national public health system in the way other countries do, without strong leadership from the White House, the responses tends to be slipshod and politicized.

 

[URedskin54]

Nah it’s just that politicians eventually cannot ignore reality. The US is not a country where locking people in their homes for a year and a half and completely closing off cross-border and international travel was feasible. Beyond that, we’re an international travel hub that Australia and NZ and the like are not. Thousands and thousands of people were already infected and spreading it here before we used our first test. There is no version of this where we either locked out covid early on or reduced it to near zero through lockdowns.

 

[watu05]

Nah it’s just that politicians eventually cannot ignore reality. The US is not a country where locking people in their homes for a year and a half and completely closing off cross-border and international travel was feasible. Beyond that, we’re an international travel hub that Australia and NZ and the like are not.

Can't agree. Had we moved to testing and contact tracing early before it became community wide, we could have done better. Had the country had a consistent approach across states, we could have done better. Had the country been informed by the President about what he knew about how deadly Covid was, we could have done better. The US sat through December and January watching Covid spread and did nothing but have the president make reassuring noises about it not being a threat and later that it was under control.

The mismanagement that allowed the world's wealthiest country with the most advanced medical infrastructure, the first to have an effective vaccine and with 5% of the world's population to have 20% of the deaths doesn't past muster. The US and the world need to examine what worked and what didn't. But first you have admit there were mistakes.

OK maybe I'm just out of touch, and fantasy is becoming the new American way. The last election really was a fraud. Jan 6 was a panty raid. 600,000 dead Americans was just the best anyone could do.

 

[astonmartin708]

I'm not saying there's nothing to this, but I do think that any theory of mitigation that says the stringency of govt. policy was one of or the major factor must at least attempt to explain why there are states that had much more stringent policies than Mexico but ended up with worse results. I'm not saying these policies have no impact. It just seems to me that some things that are outside of our control, regardless of how dumb and erratic our leader was, had a much greater impact than policy. I'm not completely open minded on this. Clearly I have a position. But I'm not completely unpersuadable either. I just don't see anyone trying to explain why there are not just outliers, but also a seeming lack of correlation globally between strong govt. response and fewer deaths. Maybe it's not possible to account for every confounding variable and isolate govt policy stringency, but I'd like to see some of the really smart people try.

I think Brazil would be the counter to this argument. They had similarly lax policies as Mexico and they got decimated. They also have a president who is a populist goofball like Trump who kept feeding them garbage.

 

[URedskin54]

I think Brazil would be the counter to this argument. They had similarly lax policies as Mexico and they got decimated. They also have a president who is a populist goofball like Trump who kept feeding them garbage.

My point is really that you can pick out individual examples to show one thing or another but there’s not really much of a correlation on the macro level. I’d like to see someone attempt to explain why. The chart above was as of March but most countries’ relative positions haven’t changed substantially since then.

 

[URedskin54]

OK maybe I'm just out of touch, and fantasy is becoming the new American way. The last election really was a fraud. Jan 6 was a panty raid. 600,000 dead Americans was just the best anyone could do.

You didn’t actually have to act like a clown here

 

[shon46]

If it were at all related to blood type, doctors and scientists would have seen signs and trends and already studied that.

The released the info about type O being the most resistant against Covid but I never heard anything else after that.

 

[TUMe]

Covid: Peru more than doubles death toll after review

Peru now has the highest number of deaths in the world in relation to the size of its population.

www.bbc.com

Okay let's get something straight. Peru doubled it's deaths today. In deaths per million they are number 1. We might be number 2 but India, there is no telling when and how many it will end with. You can trust China and Russia if you choose to. If you don't trust China it may have started the whole mess. We all trust China, but President Biden is checking.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

The released the info about type O being the most resistant against Covid but I never heard anything else after that.

...and you don't think they are and have studied that in an extended study?

Of course they have, and will.

If there is anything there, you will eventually hear about it. Patience son, patience.

 

[astonmartin708]

My point is really that you can pick out individual examples to show one thing or another but there’s not really much of a correlation on the macro level. I’d like to see someone attempt to explain why. The chart above was as of March but most countries’ relative positions haven’t changed substantially since then.

I'd be very careful with charts like that. The weighting of the countries that were hardly effected, but also not very stringent should not necessarily influence our outlook on the places where the virus struck the worst. Also, the measure of "stringency" is a bit funny there, because I think we could all agree that Japan's culture is naturally more "stringent" in terms of illness prevention due to the past bouts they've had. They were one of the most cleanly, pro-mask countries on the planet prior to the outbreak. Breaking any problem with a large number of variables into two variables is difficult and fraught with pitfalls.

Conglomerating the US response into a single point is also a pitfall that the scientists who constructed the y-axis metric pointed out. There were 50 different states with 50 different response levels because our government, unlike many on that list, can't operate unilaterally during a viral outbreak.

 

[watu05]

I'd be very careful with charts like that. The weighting of the countries hardly effected, but also not very stringent should not necessarily influence our outlook on the places where the virus struck the worst. Also, the measure of "stringency" is a bit funny there, because I think we could all agree that Japan's culture is naturally more "stringent" in terms of illness prevention due to the past bouts they've had. They were one of the most cleanly, pro-mask countries on the planet prior to the outbreak. Breaking any problem with a large number of variables into two variables is difficult and fraught with pitfalls.

Conglomerating the US response into a single point is also a pitfall that the scientists who constructed the y-axis metric pointed out. There were 50 different states with 50 different response levels because our government, unlike many on that list, can't operate unilaterally during a viral outbreak.

The other variable is consistency of application. In the US states changed the level of 'stringency' all the time. OTOH Taiwan, New Zealand, and Japan were consistent across the country and over time.

 

[URedskin54]

The other variable is consistency of application. In the US states changed the level of 'stringency' all the time. OTOH Taiwan, New Zealand, and Japan were consistent across the country and over time.

Cool, so make an effort to explain what many people would see as a lack of correlation between govt. response and outcome at the global level(and state level in the US) rather than just saying “lol don’t you even believe in #science bro.”

This is a big problem for public health experts whose recommendations failed to achieve the promised results at nearly every turn. The arrogance to not feel you have to explain why your didn’t work is astounding. Failure of anyone in the profession to own up to anything or convey uncertainty will come back to bite us next time because no one will listen any recommendation. “The public just wasn’t obedient enough” won’t cut it.