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Understading vaccine efficacy

Vaccines are one of the great wonders of modern medicine. The Covid vaccines have been remarkable in their speed of development and efficacy at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. People spend their lives devoted to building the expertise of a scientific discipline and we need to show some respect and deference to those bodies of knowledge and individual experts. Conspiracies, while possible, are rare and hard to pull off. Rich and powerful people do exert s lot of influence but they do not have a secret society that controls the world.

Whew I feel better now. Debating these topics too much is a waste of time. All I can do is occassionally pop in and toss some common sense into the pot.
 
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drboobay said:
Vaccines are one of the great wonders of modern medicine. The Covid vaccines have been remarkable in their speed of development and efficacy at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. People spend their lives devoted to building the expertise of a scientific discipline and we need to show some respect and deference to those bodies of knowledge and individual experts. Conspiracies, while possible, are rare and hard to pull off. Rich and powerful people do exert s lot of influence but they do not have a secret society that controls the world.

Whew I feel better now. Debating these topics too much is a waste of time. All I can do is occassionally pop in and toss some common sense into the pot.
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Modern day Vaccinations are amazing. mRNA and CRISPR technology revolutionized our planet. With the good comes the bad. I have had some unique opportunities through Singularity University as well as my own circle of acquaintances to dig really deep into mRNA and CRISPR. In our free time, we Red Team new technology for vulnerabilities focusing on most likely to most probable scenarios. These vaccinations could easily be corrupted by bad individuals/governments and turned into a mechanism used as bio weapons, to eliminate key genes needed for normal cell regeneration, reproduction, or enhance physical and cognitive abilities to create super humans. There are many articles out there about China already engaging in this behavior. The second and third order short and long term effects from using these drugs are unknown and could possibly alter unknown junk genes, causing our species to become vulnerable to things we are currently immune to. We are now playing God. There are serious and irreversible consequences that very few are discussing and very real threats that currently have no mitigation. In regards to your comment on secret societies, I believe you are unaware. Our country and its laws were created by men belonging to a secret society. There isn’t one major city in the US that doesn’t have a lodge. Globally, almost every major city in the world has a lodge. This is just one secret society! How much power do they hold? I believe it would be foolish to not think there are other, more powerful groups in existence that have equal or greater power.
 
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Some interesting Oklahoma data points that are *hopefully* indicative of vaccinations beginning to have an effect on outcomes. Since OK began reporting percent of weekly cases by age group 65+ has consistently bounced between 12% and 16% of cases. The last 3 weeks have been the 3 lowest 65+ shares of cases and the percentage has fallen to 8.9%

testr.png
 
URedskin54 said:
Some interesting Oklahoma data points that are *hopefully* indicative of vaccinations beginning to have an effect on outcomes. Since OK began reporting percent of weekly cases by age group 65+ has consistently bounced between 12% and 16% of cases. The last 3 weeks have been the 3 lowest 65+ shares of cases and the percentage has fallen to 8.9%

testr.png
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I think that there is a genuine expectation that infection levels would be reduced once people start getting vaccinated however there are a couple of other factors at play that also played a role in reduced numbers. One significant factor is the WHO adjusting their COVID testing Standards on 20 Jan to reduce the high rates of false positives. The second factor is Oklahoma eliminating the mask mandate. States that got rid of the mask mandates saw a huge reduction in „Covid related“ cases (factored into the Overall Covid statistical data) primarily in the form of upper respiratory infections. I think for Oklahoma, more time is needed to be able to separate out the significant factors I listed.
 
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shon46 said:
I think that there is a genuine expectation that infection levels would be reduced once people start getting vaccinated however there are a couple of other factors at play that also played a role in reduced numbers. One significant factor is the WHO adjusting their COVID testing Standards on 20 Jan to reduce the high rates of false positives. The second factor is Oklahoma eliminating the mask mandate. States that got rid of the mask mandates saw a huge reduction in „Covid related“ cases (factored into the Overall Covid statistical data) primarily in the form of upper respiratory infections. I think for Oklahoma, more time is needed to be able to separate out the significant factors I listed.
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This is not dependent on how cases are being counted. It is relative share of cases. The fact that there were nearly 4,000 cases per day and now only 300 per day is good, but not what is being measured. This is the percentage of cases each week occurring in 65+ year olds. 3/4 of this group has gotten at least 1 shot, while other groups are far lower. If the vaccinated group starts representing a lower share of the cases identified each week, it could be a good sign. Too early to know for sure
 
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URedskin54 said:
This is not dependent on how cases are being counted. It is relative share of cases. The fact that there were nearly 4,000 cases per day and now only 300 per day is good, but not what is being measured. This is the percentage of cases each week occurring in 65+ year olds. 3/4 of this group has gotten at least 1 shot, while other groups are far lower. If the vaccinated group starts representing a lower share of the cases identified each week, it could be a good sign. Too early to know for sure
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I don’t understand what you are saying in regards to cases being counted. Are you saying that the % of 65+ That were false positives a month ago compared to now is not significant?
 
shon46 said:
I don’t understand what you are saying in regards to cases being counted. Are you saying that the % of 65+ That were false positives a month ago compared to now is not significant?
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I’m saying that even accepting your premise that there has been a reduction in cases overall due to changing definitions, it would be irrelevant because presumably false positives would be similar among different age groups. If cases go from 4000 to 300, you wouldn’t expect the age stratification to change much. However, over the last few weeks the age stratification has changed significantly. Age 65+ are making up a much smaller proportion of the cases. Whether that is attributable to vaccinations or not can’t be known for sure.
 
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URedskin54 said:
I’m saying that even accepting your premise that there has been a reduction in cases overall due to changing definitions, it would be irrelevant because presumably false positives would be similar among different age groups. If cases go from 4000 to 300, you wouldn’t expect the age stratification to change much. However, over the last few weeks the age stratification has changed significantly. Age 65+ are making up a much smaller proportion of the cases. Whether that is attributable to vaccinations or not can’t be known for sure.
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Im trying to understand the chart graphics better. Where did you get the chart from as I would like to educate myself a little more. Thanks 🙏🏽
 
shon46 said:
Im trying to understand the chart graphics better. Where did you get the chart from as I would like to educate myself a little more. Thanks 🙏🏽
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I got the numbers from the Oklahoma health department's weekly report. They've been reporting on weekly age data since July or August. All I did was take numbers for ages 65+ and plot them. I did exclude the week after Christmas because the state screwed up their reporting and the total of all age groups only added up to like 55%. There was no way of telling what the correct % was in any group.
 
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That countries are taking such strong steps based on a few instances without confirming studies shows how seriously the political leadership is taking safety. AZ's unique vaccine is one of several out there based on different approaches to achieving the same result. That some reactions would vary among tens of millions of people is no surprise. BTW the US death toll is now 556,000+
 
shon46 said:
thebl.tv

246 fully vaccinated people in Michigan state have gotten COVID-19 (CCP Virus): 3 dead

According to the Detroit News, two hundred forty-six people in Michigan have tested positive for the...
thebl.tv thebl.tv
Click to expand...

Odd phrasing by your source...

According to the Detroit News, two hundred forty-six people in Michigan have tested positive for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Virus
Click to expand...

But thank you for sharing the good news no matter the source! Michigan is really getting hammered, with nearly 6,000 new cases a day, 3500 people hospitalized, and averaging 31 deaths per day. between January 1 and March 31, nearly 200,000 Michiganders have been infected. Any ray of light is certainly welcome.

It's great to hear that of the nearly 200,000 infections in the period, only 246 were vaccinated individuals! Of the nearly 3,000,000 people vaccinated in Michigan less than 0.1% have been infected by COVID and of those infected the death rate seems to be cut in half. The science indicates the infection rate of vaccinated persons will probably end up higher (I think ~95% effective in prior testing), but it seems to be a really strong indication that vaccines work pretty well!

Thank you science! Hopefully other people see the evidence and follow the science too.

Thanks again for sharing.

As always, please check my data. I'm happy to stand corrected:

www.mlive.com

Michigan coronavirus data for Wednesday, April 7: Hospitalizations up by 1,000 plus in past week

Charts and maps allow readers to dive into the latest county-level data on the coronavirus pandemic.
www.mlive.com www.mlive.com

Michigan Data

Michigan Data
www.michigan.gov www.michigan.gov
 
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I am surprised that the death rate of those vaccinated is even that high. Perhaps more lethal variants are the cause?
 
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Pretty significant improvement in this surge in Michigan for the more vaccinated demographics

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watu05 said:
I am surprised that the death rate of those vaccinated is even that high. Perhaps more lethal variants are the cause?
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I was a little surprised too, but the article mentioned a little on this and we can extrapolate a little more.

First, in vaccinated persons ~90% who do become infected will have a lesser reaction - 95% efficacy, 90% reduction in severe infections = 0.5% of vaccinated persons are still at risk of severe infection (full disclosure: I'm not an epidemiologist, so I don't know if the extrapolated math really works like that). Second, the studied pool of vaccinated individuals is almost certainly weighted to persons in higher risk categories since they were vaccinated first, and all of the deaths were in a higher risk category (65+ etc.). Third, 2 of the 3 deaths occurred within 3 weeks of full vaccination; which is within the time that a full immune response may not have developed. Fourth, ~250/3 deaths is a small data set to draw wide conclusions from (yay for small data set in this instance!). Finally - I do not believe the efficacy of the vaccine in immune compromised persons is well known (they were not included in the clinical trial) but I think they are eligible to receive the vaccine; that *could* play a role (but the article did not say if the deaths were immune compromised or not).

Taking all that together, I'm not surprised we see some oddities. Overall, I still think the data are more promising than we had a right to hope for.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

COVID-19 vaccination in immunocompromised patients

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
www.uchicagomedicine.org

What immunocompromised patients should know about the COVID-19 vaccines

The mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are safe for people with compromised immune systems, but they should discuss timing of the shots with their physician.
www.uchicagomedicine.org www.uchicagomedicine.org
www.detroitnews.com

246 vaccinated residents diagnosed with COVID; 3 dead, Michigan reports

'In general, these persons have been more likely to be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic compared with vaccinated persons,' health department says
www.detroitnews.com
 
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No not a measure in anybody’s book. Like the European site you don’t understand, VAERS is not a list of reactions to the vaccine. The article you linked even has that disclaimer.

“it is important to note that for any reported event, no cause-and-effect relationship has been established … VAERS collects data on any adverse event following vaccination, be it coincidental or truly caused by a vaccine. The report of an adverse event to VAERS is not documentation that a vaccine caused the event.”

This means that if I get a vaccine today and have a stroke tomorrow for a completely unrelated reason there’s a pretty good chance it will show up in VAERS.
 
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URedskin54 said:
No not a measure in anybody’s book. Like the European site you don’t understand, VAERS is not a list of reactions to the vaccine. The article you linked even has that disclaimer.

“it is important to note that for any reported event, no cause-and-effect relationship has been established … VAERS collects data on any adverse event following vaccination, be it coincidental or truly caused by a vaccine. The report of an adverse event to VAERS is not documentation that a vaccine caused the event.”

This means that if I get a vaccine today and have a stroke tomorrow for a completely unrelated reason there’s a pretty good chance it will show up in VAERS.
Click to expand...
m.thebl.tv

Another vaccine site closed due to J&J shot adverse reactions

Wake County of North Carolina had to close its vaccination site at PNC Arena in Raleigh on Thursday ...
m.thebl.tv m.thebl.tv
 
URedskin54 said:
No not a measure in anybody’s book. Like the European site you don’t understand, VAERS is not a list of reactions to the vaccine. The article you linked even has that disclaimer.

“it is important to note that for any reported event, no cause-and-effect relationship has been established … VAERS collects data on any adverse event following vaccination, be it coincidental or truly caused by a vaccine. The report of an adverse event to VAERS is not documentation that a vaccine caused the event.”

This means that if I get a vaccine today and have a stroke tomorrow for a completely unrelated reason there’s a pretty good chance it will show up in VAERS.
Click to expand...
If you have a stroke and die tomorrow after taking the vaccination ( god protect you from that), VAERS will report it but it works both ways. Maybe it was a coincidence, maybe it was due to the vaccination. Research will determine the cause and like I said, it will eventually become a verifiable recorded factor!
 
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shon46 said:
m.thebl.tv

Another vaccine site closed due to J&J shot adverse reactions

Wake County of North Carolina had to close its vaccination site at PNC Arena in Raleigh on Thursday ...
m.thebl.tv m.thebl.tv
Click to expand...
From the text of your article:

A statement was released later informing no safety issue was detected by the CDC, and it believes that the administration of the vaccine could resume.

“Analysis by the CDC did not find any safety issues or reason for concern, and the CDC recommends continuing to administer the vaccine,” the statement read.
 
watu05 said:
From the text of your article:

A statement was released later informing no safety issue was detected by the CDC, and it believes that the administration of the vaccine could resume.

“Analysis by the CDC did not find any safety issues or reason for concern, and the CDC recommends continuing to administer the vaccine,” the statement read.
Click to expand...
This comes after sites in Colorado, Utah, and Michigan were temporarily closed due to adverse reactions that we discussed earlier this week.
link.theepochtimes.com

4th US Site Pauses COVID-19 Vaccinations After Adverse Reactions

A fourth vaccination site in the United States has paused giving shots after a batch of adverse reactions.
link.theepochtimes.com link.theepochtimes.com
 
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My entire family (grandparents, parents, aunts and uncles) are all vaccinated for a wedding coming up. Wife and I are one shot in. No severe reactions from anyone. Shon’s stuff amounts to RFK Jr. anti-vax talking points, nothing more.
 
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Before we had the miracle of vaccines, public health’s main tool was quaratine which was imposed, not a voluntary life style or political choice. As long as there is a large body of unvaxed people, especially those not distancing or wearing masks, this virus is not going away and will continue to infect, mutate, and kill more people. Not just in the US, but worldwide.
 
URedskin54 said:
My entire family (grandparents, parents, aunts and uncles) are all vaccinated for a wedding coming up. Wife and I are one shot in. No severe reactions from anyone. Shon’s stuff amounts to RFK Jr. anti-vax talking points, nothing more.
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I have every vaccination I NEED. Nobody is attacking you for doing what you think is best for your body but I’m not going to sit around and cheerlead you on as if I were in agreement with your choice! Anytime I see anything negative written about this experimental gene therapy, you can bet I will be the first to post it because there is a whole campaign designed to suppress it! Crazy how nobody is fighting against an Ebola, Polio, or TB vaccinations!
 
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watu05 said:
Russian disinformation campaign aims to undermine confidence in Pfizer, other Covid-19 vaccines, U.S. officials say

www.wsj.com

WSJ News Exclusive | Russian Disinformation Campaign Aims to Undermine Confidence in Pfizer, Other Covid-19 Vaccines, U.S. Officials Say

Russian intelligence agencies are trying to undermine confidence in Pfizer’s and other Western coronavirus vaccines, using online publications that have questioned the vaccines’ development and safety, U.S. officials said.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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If the Germans say their cars are better than US made cars, is that disinformation or fact? If the virus was as Bad as they say it is and Russia believes it’s vaccination is better, why the hell would I care let alone think it’s disinformation? Wake up, this is about control!
 
shon46 said:
I have every vaccination I NEED. Nobody is attacking you for doing what you think is best for your body but I’m not going to sit around and cheerlead you on as if I were in agreement with your choice! Anytime I see anything negative written about this experimental gene therapy, you can bet I will be the first to post it because there is a whole campaign designed to suppress it! Crazy how nobody is fighting against an Ebola, Polio, or TB vaccinations!
Click to expand...

And no one is attacking you for not getting one yourself. People are arguing with you because you’re posting easily debunked garbage to convince others to make the same choice you’re making.

The most recent one you posted is from a well known discredited anti-vax jackass and linked to from “Natural News.” No one should respect that.
 
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URedskin54 said:
And no one is attacking you for not getting one yourself. People are arguing with you because you’re posting easily debunked garbage to convince others to make the same choice you’re making.
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Spoiler Alert! Your government has a campaign designed to make this vaccination look like it’s the best thing since sliced bread! All information against it is has to be a lie or suppressed.
 
More misdirection bullshlt. Everytime you post a discredited link or something with a conclusion that doesn’t logically follow someone will push back on you, and then rather than try to counter the argument made against you you simply jump to the next unrelated thing. This is classic conspiracy stuff. It’s exactly what 911 conspiracy theorists do
 
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URedskin54 said:
More misdirection bullshlt. Everytime you post a discredited link or something with a conclusion that doesn’t logically follow someone will push back on you, and then rather than try to counter the argument made against you you simply jump to the next unrelated thing. This is classic conspiracy stuff. It’s exactly what 911 conspiracy theorists do
Click to expand...
Lol 😂 there have been multiple things that I have brought up on here that ignorant people thought were conspiracy theory until the weren’t! UFO‘s, origins of Covid, wide spread election fraud in the swing States are Just some topics. I don’t write checks for things I can’t cover. Crow is best served cold! I will be waiting if you are still around for me to serve it!
 
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