This story is somewhat long, but I found it interesting.
By
Aaron Steen [October 26, 2013 at 6:42pm CST]
The Royals came close to a playoff berth for the first time in decades in 2013, but major questions surround their rotation heading into the offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
Noel Arguelles, SP: $1.38MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players
Brett Hayes, C (3.018): $900K
Contract Options
James Shields, SP: $13.5MM ($1MM buyout)
Free Agents
Miguel Tejada
General Manager Dayton Moore's rebuild of the Royals' organization finally bore fruit at the Major League level in 2013, as products of the farm system and trades helped propel the team to its first winning campaign since 2003. No longer the American League Central's perennial doormat, the Royals remained in the hunt for a wild card spot until the final weeks of the season, a significant step forward for a club that hasn't been considered a legitimate contender in at least 20 years. The accomplishment netted manager Ned Yost a
two-year contract extension, and something similar could be in the pipeline for Moore. His current deal runs through 2014, and it's not often that a manager's contract extends beyond that of the GM who hired him.
Following an 86-win season, conventional wisdom might suggest that Royals officials simply need to make a few tweaks to push the club into contention in the AL Central. And indeed, with players considered to be franchise cornerstones at several positions across the diamond, the Royals are unlikely to see a large-scale makeover this winter on the offensive side of the ball. Young players such as first baseman
Billy Butler, other franchise fixtures, are coming off of down seasons but have time left on long-term extensions.
The Royals' bullpen is also unlikely to see significant turnover. While we can't count on Royals relievers to be as dominant in 2014 as they were this year -- the unit's 2.55 ERA was easily the AL's best -- all key contributors are in line to return next season. Pieces like
Luke Hochevar is a bit of a wildcard, as his success this year in the pen (70 1/3 IP, 1.92 ERA) could lead the Royals to try him again as a starter.
Things change when we turn to the rotation, where Moore and his lieutenants may find themselves making significant investments this winter just to stay in place.
Bruce Chen, whose 3.27-ERA, 121-inning season places him firmly in crafty lefty territory. The Royals may opt to pass on bringing back the 36-year-old Chen, however, if his asking price extends to two years.
There's more uncertainty in the rotation behind Santana and Chen. It's an open question how long
Wil Myers trade, saw his peripherals slip despite a sterling 3.15 ERA in 228 2/3 innings. If he posts similar strikeout and walk rates next year, Shields could see his ERA rise to something more in line with the 3.72 that xFIP projected him for this year.
Luckily, several young pitchers may be ready to help the Royals' staff in 2014.
Danny Duffy, who clawed his way back from Tommy John surgery to make five starts as the season drew to a close. If one of these three can stick in the majors in 2014, the rotation picture looks magnitudes brighter.
In an October
Phil Hughes[/B] could make sense, or the Royals could look to swing a trade for an arm with bounce-back potential, as they did with Santana around this time last year. However, Moore adds in the same article that it's not inconceivable that the Royals enter 2014 without having acquired a veteran pitcher.
"The bullpen was used very wisely this year," Moore said.
"
If our bullpen has to be used a little bit more next year in the first part of the season, so be it." Comments such as these suggest that the Royals will look to make an acquisition but are comfortable with the pieces they have in place if the right opportunity doesn't materialize.
After the team scored just 648 runs this season, many Royals fans expect Moore to conduct a thorough search for offensive help over the winter. Second base stands out as an immediate need, as Royals second basemen hit just .240/.296/.306 for the year.
writes that the club will still look to acquire a second baseman this winter, with an eye toward shifting Bonifacio to a utility role. Who might pique their interest?
The Royals' name surfaced frequently in trade talks surrounding the Angels' Rickie Weeks -- with Bonifacio in the fold, the Royals can afford to be a bit more selective.
It's worth noting that ESPN's Buster Olney confirmed. Dutton noted, however, that Moore has indicated he's willing to trade any player in the right deal. Dealing Country Breakfast for say, an everyday second baseman this winter would be selling low on a player who posted a 116 OPS+ this season but who had previously managed a mark of at least 125 every year since 2009. It would also immediately task the Royals with finding DH help outside the organization, as there doesn't appear to be a player in the minors ready to replace Butler.
If the Royals can't put together a trade for a second baseman, three-year, $25MM deal for the 31-year-old, which might be in the Royals' price range. Beyond Infante, though, it's an uninspiring market.
The outfield would also appear to be in need of an upgrade -- Royals outfielders collectively hit just .259/.314/.392 in 2013. However, that same group also combined for a 52.5 UZR, suggesting that they were the majors' best defensive outfield by a wide margin. Adding a marquee name like Marlon Byrd could work for the Royals, as he grades out as a strong right fielder and could provide an offensive boost even with some regression from this year's standout season.
The Royals found themselves on the cusp of contention in 2013 for the first time in decades. However, the club must address multiple holes this offseason if it hopes to stay there. Significant regression is likely in the starting rotation, and success in 2014 likely hinges on whether Moore & Co. can counteract it. The Royals will also need to find a way to add to their young offense, as this isn't a playoff-caliber lineup as currently projected.