Tulane looks like a well coached football team that doesn't make many critical errors. They are ranked:
#32 Total defense (#19 passing defense, 46 rushing)
#60 total offense (55 passing offense, 61 rushing)
#26 turnover margin
#6 in blocked kicks
#11 punt returns (#14 punt return defense)
#5 fewest penalty yards
#12 scoring defense
#18 pass efficiency
stats.ncaa.org
Their schedule (Sagarin #91) is marginally easier than our own (#77), mostly due to two bad opponents early (and having already played USF), but I don't think that's the difference in records. They are ranked #120 for team sacks and #104 for tackles for loss, so if Brin is healthy he could get some time to shine as a pocket passer. Looking at the teams, I don't think they outmatch us personnel wise. But overall, they are a well rounded team and don't make many mistakes.
I think that's too much for the Tulsa team I have watched recently. I predict struggles to move the ball against a balanced Tulane defense, leading to frustration and errors. Our defense will make a show of it, but Tulane's offense just grinds and our defense, which won't get much of a break, eventually breaks. I also think Tulane will have the edge on special teams. I do think Tulsa can pull together and win, but I think it's more likely the wheels fall of the bus and it goes bad. I am embracing my lack of faith, it protects me from the disappointed I felt after the Wyoming loss.
If the wheels don't fall off:
T-U-LSA: 20
TUlane: 34
If the wheels do fall off, I predict lackluster melting because Tulsa fans have concluded football is a silly sport followed by silly people and nothing matters anyway.