The CBO in 2019 estimated the theoretical effects of a federal minimum wage increase under three scenarios: increases per hour to $10, $12 and $15 by 2025. Under the $15 scenario, in 2025 up to 27 million workers could see increases to their average weekly earnings while 3.7 million workers could lose employment. The latter statistic, in CBO's estimation would rise over time in any wage increase scenario as capital allocation replaces some workers. Wage increases would be heavily skewed (40%) towards those already earning above the minimum wage with more than 80% of benefits accruing to more educated workers living above the poverty line (Table 5). The number of persons in poverty would be reduced by 1.3 million (assuming no tax implications from increased income). The CBO notes that it does not consider the inflationary effects of these policies when estimating the change in poverty level as these estimates, while increasing inflation, are uncertain. Additionally, the CBO assumed that the weight of benefits would accrue to those below the poverty level based on historical wage increase levels. They noted that data on the minimum wage tends to assume the opposite (that benefits accrue to those above the poverty level), but that that data was not definitive enough to allow for estimation in their work. Some aspects of the CBO study are summarized in the table below.[121]This is exactly what I was talking about. Fluffy language while dancing around the specifics of how raising the minimum wage significantly above the equilibrium in a given area will somehow not result in significant job losses. Pretending the consequences don't exist does not make those consequences go away. At least free-trade absolutists will say "yes, a couple areas of the economy will lose jobs, but overall it will be a net benefit in jobs and prices." Even if you disagree with the policy or whether there will be a net benefit, at least the tradeoffs are usually acknowledged.
So, yes there would likely be workers who lost permanent employment, but it would result in a net of 1.3 million coming out of poverty (I'm assuming that the 1.3 net number includes the 3.7 who would lose their jobs).
My guess is that a significant number of those 3.7 would move back into the home to take care of their families as their spouses / significant others started making significantly more. There are certainly benefits and drawbacks to any minimum wage increase and the effects are incredibly hard to predict, but we've seen increases of 50-70+ % in the past and it didn't have a significant effect on increasing unemployment. Several states where we've seen minimum wage increases have actually seen higher job growth than the national average.
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