then I will never have to make another decision for myself; Kamala, the Dems, and the government will tell me what I need.
2024 Election prediction/discussion
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
If this actually happens it will have been driven by women who Trump and his party's policies have managed to alienate at every turn.
Reading far too many stories out of conservative states where young pregnant women are dying from complications having been refused care because of fetal protection laws.
I have a high school kid in drama and choir. I think I would know the costs. But ok.
Are you extrapolating the Iowa poll showing Harris leading Trump in that state as an indicator of the national election? She very well may win, and big, but there are so many nuances in the swing states that would cause me pause on what may happen. Hopefully we will have a peaceful election and transition no matter who wins.
Yes. If Harris is up 3 in Iowa she will win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I also like her chances in North Carolina.
I think she will win NC because of the gubernatorial race influencing the presidential election. I have no idea about the other states. I just think the dynamics in this election are different than those in the past. We will know on Tuesday night, Wednesday or sometime before the inauguration 😁
Didn't mean that they were pricey, I meant that they require time commitments. It can be hard to participate in some of that when you aren't able to get home because mom or dad are working two jobs. Ask me how I know.
Seems like Trump may have had a much more involved relationship with Epstein than anyone yet realized....
www.thedailybeast.com
Also, is he practicing for the next time he sees Putin? Possibly your next president of the United States everyone.... Very distinguished. I'm sure Ronnie and Nancy Reagan would be proud.
Listen To The Jeffrey Epstein Tapes: ‘I Was Donald Trump’s Closest Friend’
Explosive tapes recorded by author Michael Wolff show Epstein claiming Trump liked to “f---” his friends’ wives and first slept with Melania on the “Lolita Express.”
Also, is he practicing for the next time he sees Putin? Possibly your next president of the United States everyone.... Very distinguished. I'm sure Ronnie and Nancy Reagan would be proud.
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You are looking at public polling. Where pollsters have a greater incentive to not be wrong than they do to be right. It skews results. Internal polling has the incentive to be right so the client comes back. It’s closer in Wisconsin than people on the left want to talk about. Trump was up six in Iowa and would have lost Wisconsin if Clinton had a cup of coffee there. Though early voting is showing a wider gender gap in Wisconsin than predicted, which favors Harris, she’s taken a bath on high school diploma males in blue collar jobs. If those men vote on Election Day in even just slightly above predicted numbers she will lose it.
Yeah, even if it is a wonky bad sample (which can happen even to Selzer), it is a very bad omen for Trump. If it is even close there it is bad news for him. And it would be shocking if Selzer is off by more than 8 points and Trump wins Iowa by 5+.
She said she saw significant movement from older women voting in large numbers for Harris.
Looks like Elon has switched sides and is now incentivizing votes for Kamala to the tune of $1000 per vote
Selzer has a long history of extremely accurate polling in Iowa. I find it hard to believe she would jeopardize her reputation with an intentional wrong poll. However if she’s off by more than 2-3 points I firmly believe based on her history it’s deliberate. We shall see.
Her forecast is based heavily on unexpectedly high early voter turnout for Harris amongst Protestant and non religious women in her own demographic in the populated areas of Iowa. I’m not sure if that translates over to how voters behave in the Catholic working class areas of the Pittsburgh suburbs and Pennslytucky rural areas. We shall see if there’s confirmation bias in her methods soon enough.
FWIW, Iowa always closes late for Republicans and she knows that. If she’s calling it by 3, then that means she would need to believe it’s 6 to 7 points, at least, in favor of Harris in early voting. And the numbers just don’t support that.
I’m not saying I know what is happening. I’m saying she couldn’t know. And if she says she knows, she either taken a huge risk or a huge bag, or both.
Today's Updates:
WI - Harris +1.0% (10)
MI - Harris +1.8% (15)
PA - Trump +0.1% (19)
NV - Trump +0.6% (6)
NC - Trump +1.2% (16)
GA - Trump +1.2% (16)
AZ - Trump +1.7% (11)
Popular Vote - Harris +1.1%
EC - Trump 287-251
WI - Harris +1.0% (10)
MI - Harris +1.8% (15)
PA - Trump +0.1% (19)
NV - Trump +0.6% (6)
NC - Trump +1.2% (16)
GA - Trump +1.2% (16)
AZ - Trump +1.7% (11)
Popular Vote - Harris +1.1%
EC - Trump 287-251
I decided to vote like a Democrat.
I voted early, . . . and often
I voted early, . . . and often
mine is only about 87%. I live in AZ where legals register and vote.
Final Update:
PA- Tie (19)
WI - Harris +1.1% 10)
MI - Harris +1.8% (15)
NV - Trump +0.6% (6)
NC - Trump +1.2% (16)
GA - Trump +1.3% (16)
AZ - Trump +1.7% (11)
Popular Vote - Harris +1.2%
EC - Trump 287-251 with PA
EC - Harris 270-268 with PA
PA- Tie (19)
WI - Harris +1.1% 10)
MI - Harris +1.8% (15)
NV - Trump +0.6% (6)
NC - Trump +1.2% (16)
GA - Trump +1.3% (16)
AZ - Trump +1.7% (11)
Popular Vote - Harris +1.2%
EC - Trump 287-251 with PA
EC - Harris 270-268 with PA
Election Day final predictions.
Trump wins Ga, NC, Zona and Nevada.
Harris wins MI, WI, PA and NH. Which gives her the presidency.
Harris wins popular vote by 2.5%.
Pubs win Senate. Dems win House.
At the end of the day in all depends on turnout. Pubs have performed very well in the early vote. My assumption is the Election Day Pub voting advantaging will be down due to all the early voting. I’m looking at Florida today to see the Election Day vote breakdown by party. Anything 20 points or over by the Pubs would be a good sign nationwide. Anything less validates my opinion of a voting pattern shift by the Pubs to early voting.
Bonus pick….Keith wins mayoral race by 5 points. Zero data here just a gut feeling.
Trump wins Ga, NC, Zona and Nevada.
Harris wins MI, WI, PA and NH. Which gives her the presidency.
Harris wins popular vote by 2.5%.
Pubs win Senate. Dems win House.
At the end of the day in all depends on turnout. Pubs have performed very well in the early vote. My assumption is the Election Day Pub voting advantaging will be down due to all the early voting. I’m looking at Florida today to see the Election Day vote breakdown by party. Anything 20 points or over by the Pubs would be a good sign nationwide. Anything less validates my opinion of a voting pattern shift by the Pubs to early voting.
Bonus pick….Keith wins mayoral race by 5 points. Zero data here just a gut feeling.
Everyone can take that poll with a grain of salt...but when you look at the track record and history of that poll in Iowa, they have not been off by more than +/- 1 pt in either direction of the actual vote except for once in the last 6 elections I believe.
It won't matter though...Trump can lose some of those swing states by 75k votes and he'll still have an army of lawyers contesting the results saying absentee ballots shouldn't be counted, voters he will argue are ineligible should have been purged, etc. He has already hinted that he and Mike Johnson have a handshake deal to derail the Congressional certification of electoral votes and I'd be willing to bet there will be another Jan. 6th (on whatever appropriate date) incident except this time it will be a lot of MAGA blood spilled because the national guard will be there and ready and basically daring the mob to FAFO. (Philadelphia's DA has already told the "militia" in that county to tread lightly with their presence at polling places because he is making sure they know if the FA they will FO).
I don't get to vote in the Tulsa mayoral election because I live in BA but I suspect you're correct. The Van Norman voters will predictably vote for Karen Keith for the obvious reasons they voted for the old white guy in the 1st place. The only thing that saves Monroe Nichols is a larger than expected voter turnout from midtown and north Tulsa, which could happen because of the presidential race
I can’t vote in the mayoral race either. Drove past a couple of polling places on my way to work this morning and I’ve never seen lines to vote like this. I think Keith gets the independent and Pub vote and it’s enough to carry her across the finish line. Nichols made a mistake taking assistance from the Dem party and blocking Keith from the same. That will hurt him with independents.
Old folks vote most and know her. Hard to have a negative view of Karen Keith. She is very bland.
I am voting for Monroe. Not a single Keith or Republican sign in my Tracy Park neighborhood. Not one. Lots of signs for Monroe who has done a good job as our representative.
Only the Pubs with an army of lawyers huh. I know I shouldn’t be but I’m still surprised to see intelligent people completely blind to seeing both sides
Monroe is fighting some headwinds imo. I expect a fairly conservative electorate in Tulsa. Wish he would have tried to appeal more to the center instead of cozying up to the local Dem party. I think he’s going to need this independent votes. Would be happy to be wrong here.
I agree with you.
My comment is more about the segregation of the electorate. We are mostly a white, upper middle class historic neighborhood. So it kind of shocks me there is zero visible Republican support. Literally zero. Says a ton about where people choose to live though I am baffled as to why.
I know both sides have their army of lawyers, but only the losing side really activates them and then the other responds.
Plus Steve Bannon in 2020 and again this year has already said the game plan for Trump in swing states is to declare victory early and then cry about election fraud when the absentee ballots are counted OR that they start releasing totals from urban centers where vote counting takes longer because...and this is a revelation to me....there are 10-100X more votes to be counted, and where support for Dem candidates is stronger vs rural precincts with 20 voters and typically support GOP candidates. Georgia in 2020 was this exact scenario where Cobb County (Atlanta) results came in really late and overwhelmingly swung the state to Joe Biden.
Their lawers are only there in response to Trumps lawyers. That didn't happen before Trump's claims of a tainted election happened.
So Hillary’s lawyers didn’t file lawsuits in several states the days following her loss in 2016?
Just got done voting ! Glad all of this election stuff is about to be over with for the next 4 years , I did my part , now I just have to live with the results whoever it may be
Neither of these people excites me. I want people who can convince people and businesses to move here and run the government efficiently. I have my doubts about both.
That worries me.
If South Tulsa is out to vote but central Tulsa is not, that bodes well for the old curmudgeon.
Then again it could just be learned helplessness in Oklahoma.
It’s his home state, most candidates have disproportional advantages in their home state
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