2024 Election prediction/discussion
- Thread starter lawpoke87
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He’s never come close to that type of margin in 2016 or 2020. Pubs have cast 1.2M more votes in Florida than Dems. Shocking numbers. No clue what is going on there
We have Okla State vs TU. My guess is the voting lines I’m seeing in south Tulsa aren’t favorable for him but I’m not sure anyone really knows.
I would encourage everyone to view exit polls with a skeptical eye. Those same exit polls show Trump winning independents in Georgia by 11 points and getting 25% of black males. Skeptical of both those numbers.
Certainly. We have a real poll going on! Still it is interesting to see these things to assess if they are pointing similar directions.
Nichols is going to win this unless the remaining votes are heavily Keith.
Really surprises me. Perhaps it speaks to how politics differ between the city proper and other communities in Tulsa County.
I would be very curious to see how the presidential vote ends up in City of Tulsa. Not an easy number to get.
Looks like Nichols will be our next mayor. No idea about the presidential vote in the City of Tulsa. Trump is going to carry Tulsa County by double digits. The burbs are obviously heavily Pub
Nichols wins. Glad I was wrong about the mayors race.
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Trump is going to win Iowa by 12 points. Ann Selzer should be ashamed. She intentional put out bad polling numbers in an effort to influence the election for her party. She should be done as a reputable pollster. No chance Harris +3 wasn’t intentional. She’s too good to miss by 15 points
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*takes a bow*
All of these people have mortgages. And their own bias. Somebody offers you enough to retire, you take it. Especially if this is your last cycle. Never forget that when these people are telling you what to think.
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Y’all can go to bed. The Harris people are saying it will go to the a.m. and she won’t concede tonight if it goes that way.
It’s still early but the basic strategy we started talking about 18 months ago appears to hold true. Trump had to hold serve, win GA and NC, and leverage enough votes in well defined key areas of either Michigan or PA. It’s still early, but if he wins those areas of PA, and again it’s literally down to known specific numbers of votes in particular households, then that might be called around midnight, and if he wins PA, she can’t win.
It’s interesting television, that’s for sure, even the folks just babbling and the one who have to be told what to say. Surprised to see MSNBC spending a couple of minutes explaining logic and accuracy testing on polling machines and how results are up loaded as part of voting systems certification. Nice civics lesson for most of their viewers.
It’s still early but the basic strategy we started talking about 18 months ago appears to hold true. Trump had to hold serve, win GA and NC, and leverage enough votes in well defined key areas of either Michigan or PA. It’s still early, but if he wins those areas of PA, and again it’s literally down to known specific numbers of votes in particular households, then that might be called around midnight, and if he wins PA, she can’t win.
It’s interesting television, that’s for sure, even the folks just babbling and the one who have to be told what to say. Surprised to see MSNBC spending a couple of minutes explaining logic and accuracy testing on polling machines and how results are up loaded as part of voting systems certification. Nice civics lesson for most of their viewers.
Trump may win the national popular vote. Would be a significant upset should that occur
“Never underestimate the power, or the anger, of the American middle class.” George H.W. Bush, December 1992.
Flight tracker and Twitter reports are showing a significant number of Congressmen have left their watch parties in Blue Wall states and are flying to Palm Beach. Even Senators not on the ballot.
Looks like the Republicans internal advance numbers are showing PA or MI in the win column.
Looks like the Republicans internal advance numbers are showing PA or MI in the win column.
You and I talked about this years ago in the inflation thread. It skews politics all to hell.
People vote for low taxes and low grocery bills, unless they can see a benefit up front. Like better schools.
It’s not over yet but even Obama would struggle to win with numbers like these. Trump is winning a majority black county in NC.
And we talked about the possibility of him winning the popular vote and losing the election a couple of weeks ago. Could still happen.
So a surprise? Not exactly? An upset? I guess if you are part of the elite and assumed he couldn’t win or Selzer and aspired to be part of that group and their mutual admiration, then yeah an upset.
People out there knocking on doors? I suspect on both sides this isn’t a surprise or an upset. Ground gamers know the score after two or three cycles.
I am reinforced in my lack of confidence in the judgment of the American people. Lost it in the 2016 primaries.
God help us and our allies. I can only hope Vance somehow takes on the mantle of the adult in the room.
All that said I am not surprised.
God help us and our allies. I can only hope Vance somehow takes on the mantle of the adult in the room.
All that said I am not surprised.
I think it showd two things.
1. The power of perceptions of the economy regardless of the reality of cause and effect of who sits in the presidency.
2. The susceptibility of the human mind to distortion and manipulation.
As my profession has shown over and over, humans are not rational actors. They often do not have clear insights into cause or effect or even why they do what they do. So none of it is surprising. Just disappointing.
We talked about his surprisingly strong showing across several majority Hispanic counties along the border back in 2020. He flipped counties that were +35 Hillary to +5 Trump against Biden. So that’s not a surprise. It’s why, in part, Biden suddenly started talking about building the wall and moving job programs supporting border security to that area of Texas last year. Which we covered here this time last year.
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Cool. You supported a convict who tried (in absentia) to violently overthrow the US government. I don't care if 95% of the country voted for him, it's still despicable.
You're over here spouting stats like "Mr. Putin won districts that had been +40 for Yeltsin".
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I am genuinely worried about the continuation of the America that I have known in my 59 years versus slippage into an Orban style authoritarian regime.
The prior Trump administration and it's ending makes it a genuine concern. That and the broad immunity given to him by the Supreme Court and the fecklessness of our legislative branch to challenge him.
I will need to muster some confidence to avoid scaring my daughters. I tried to warn them this might happen. They are already afraid of him.
It's pandering when you make disingenuous overtures with no intent to take action. Yes, I think he was the candidate who pandered.
That might be the single most partisan delusional statement I’ve ever heard from you. Guess you missed all the “free giveaways” Harris promised directly to minorities?
Did you miss Trump sneakers? His befriending nuts like Kanye? His kissing small black children on stage?
All of it was aimed to make him look more friendly to minorities.... not of it actually meant anything, and he has no intent to actually make a positive difference in any of their lives.
I am proud of Tulsa tonight with Monroe's election. Keith ran a vacuous campaign. He came across as knowledgeable and serious.
Back to the reason this forum exists let me just say #goTU!
Back to the reason this forum exists let me just say #goTU!
Well...I don't think he really cares about anyone else - minorities, Klansman, churchgoers, atheists, the AARP - none of them. He is driven by insecurity, need for power, and fear of being jailed.
He panders to everyone and it is all instrumental. He does not believe in anything IMO. It is both good and bad I guess.
Not that I think Trump should have been their outlet but I am glad to see minorities are finally realizing the years and years of Dem policies have failed them and voted for a change.
Harris only winning Hispanics by 8 points is a seismic political shift.
Just wait.
You forget that Trump is a con artist and a salesman who fundamentally doesn't understand how to run the government successfully. All sales are final. If you don't think he will manage to screw his term up, you're in for a surprise.
I was just thinking this lawpoke as I was tossing and turning in bed.
If there is a silver lining, perhaps it is a shift away from identity politics occurring in the electorate. Shame that Trump is the beneficiary but you take the positives where you can find them.
Minorities have decades of experience with government policies failing them. Demanding change at the voting booth is a positive imo as is holding elected officials accountable. Hopefully this can be a message sent to our elected officials.
I’m not so sure. I want to see the numbers first. W “won” the Hispanic vote with 40%. But he spoke Spanish, as does his wife and a good portion of his family. And he had a Mexican-American sister-in-law helping him stump and raise money.
If Trump outperforms him, I’ll listen to arguments on a shift.
If she loses, the story will be that she didn’t have time to develop her message.
The reality is that the fundamentals didn’t favor her with inflation, the retreat from Afghanistan and real weakness in opportunities for young men in our society.
Top that off with the fact that she just wasn’t a good candidate. She’s not good at it. Appears incapable of relaxing or delivering concise answers. Refused to discuss any plans. Not really inspiring. Not as bad as Clinton, but up there. They needed a retail politician to overcome inflation. They selected maybe the worst choice for that out of the dozen or so contenders.
Reads like you're more interested in the mechanics of elections than if the candidate you support and their policies are actually good for the United States. Conragts, you're a political operator. We get it. So was Goebbels.
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