2024 Election prediction/discussion

[Babe the Blue Ox]

Today's Updates:

WI - Harris +0.6% (10)
MI - Harris +1.9% (15)
NV - Trump +0.4% (6)
PA - Trump +0.5% (19)
NC - Trump +1.4% (16)
GA - Trump +2.0% (16)
AZ - Trump +2.2% (11)

Popular Vote - Harris +0.9%

EC - Trump 287-251

 

[lawpoke87]

Harris currently has some tangible momentum in the race. Polls have swung her way the last several days. I would rate her as a slight favorite as of today.

 

[Clong83a]

Harris currently has some tangible momentum in the race. Polls have swung her way the last several days. I would rate her as a slight favorite as of today.

Me too.

Not sure how accurate the polls are this year. They undervalued Trump in key swing states 2016 and 2020, but I they are all working on correcting those errors. There are three distinct possibilities, all with an equal chance in my mind:
1) They are still undervaluing his support and he wins without much drama.
2) They are much more accurate this year and the race is a coin flip, but I'd give the slight edge to Harris.
3) They've overcorrected to try and capture Trump support that isn't really there this year and Harris wins without much of the expected drama.

I know number 3 might be the most controversial, but here's my reasoning:

Many pollsters have started doing a weighting on their sample to previous known election results. That is, in order to capture the "shy" Trump voters they keep missing, they overweight the responses of people who say they previously voted for Trump in proportion to his actual vote share from 2020. That way they can account for the missing Trump voters in years past.

But doing that effectively ensures that your poll results for 2024 look an awful lot like final election results from 2020, and makes it harder to pick up on any real shifts in the electorate. Lo and behold, polls are basically predicting 2020 results within the margin of error.

It's actually generally considered a poor practice to weight with previous results, but they are bound and determined to not whiff on him again. If Trump supporters turn out in similar numbers and proportions to 2020, they'll look like geniuses. If his support has actually waned, they could miss badly in the opposite direction as 2016/2020. It's also possible his efforts to gain new voters from groups that don't traditionally show up at the polls are working and they whiff yet again on him and he outperforms.

But yeah, I dunno. If you take them at face value, then I think Harris has a slight edge, but I wouldn't bet money on it either way.

 

[aTUfan]

the party of inclusion thinks that 80,000,000 Americans are Garbage

 

[TU Sepp]

I heard that also...

Then I saw a printed version of what Biden said.

Now, it looks like the printed version might have been altered.

 

[drboobay]

I don't

I heard that also...

Then I saw a printed version of what Biden said.

Now, it looks like the printed version might have been altered.

Who knows what he meant. As we all must acknowledge, he is prone to losing his train of thought.

 

[lawpoke87]

“The only garbage I see floating around are his supporters” was the exact quote. Didn’t see it as a big deal. Politics are politics. He was commenting on the comedian at a Trump rally making a joke.

 

[drboobay]

This is all so ridiculous. That comment is child's play compared to other things I've heard. But I don't enjoy any of it. Politics sucks. I prefer science.

 

[astonmartin708]

lol. The likes of John McCain and Bob Dole are not the same opponent as Donald Trump. Reading your posts I’m beginning to realize how the same party could be endorsed for 50 straight years regardless of candidate and appreciate this change all the more.

The likes of Nixon and Trump are not incredibly different.

 

[astonmartin708]

the party of inclusion thinks that 80,000,000 Americans are Garbage

I prefer the term “white trash”

 

[lawpoke87]

The election still remains very close. Polls favorable to both candidates have come out in the last 24 hours. Which ones have the modeling correct is the question. At the end of the day it all boils down to turnout. If Harris can capture the Biden turnout, she will win easily. If she fails to motivate the Dems to get out and vote this will be very close. Trump needs to surpass his 2020 vote total imo. Looks like he’s doing better with minorities….especially blacks and Hispanics. Still think this comes down to Dem turnout. Think this all comes down to Pennsylvania. Nail biter coming our way Tuesday night.

 

[drboobay]

The likes of Nixon and Trump are not incredibly different.

I disagree.

 

[drboobay]

I prefer the term “white trash”

Ick. You reveal yourself sir.

 

[lawpoke87]

I prefer the term “white trash”

I can’t imagine having this much hate and prejudice inside me.

 

[drboobay]

I can’t imagine having this much hate and prejudice inside me.

Unfortunately this kind of thinking partly justifies the reaction against "elites" we hear so much about. Nobody likes being belittled. It reinforces populist thinking as a reaction.

 

[astonmartin708]

Ick. You reveal yourself sir.

Let me rephrase. It is a reductive term to call his ENTIRE base, but I find that many of his base do fit that term. I have family members who fit both categories…. And I also worked very hard in my life to overcome my surroundings of crass, classless people.

 

[astonmartin708]

Unfortunately this kind of thinking partly justifies the reaction against "elites" we hear so much about. Nobody likes being belittled. It reinforces populist thinking as a reaction.

I don’t feel too much empathy for people who are okay smoking and / or cursing constantly around (or sometimes at) their children in public and private.

I don’t feel much empathy for people who disparage intelligence and learning (the foundations of which they benefit from every day). I especially don’t feel empathy for people who disparage teachers while simultaneously imparting toxic traits to their children.

I don’t feel much empathy for people who don’t care much for their children living in a better circumstance than they had.

I don’t feel empathy with people who try to resolve disputes with threats and physical violence.

Dems have some of these people too, but proportionally, and this is an anecdotal observation, I have met far more of them who openly support Trump and disparage Democrats in general.

 

[drboobay]

I don’t feel too much empathy for people who are okay smoking and / or cursing constantly around (or sometimes at) their children in public and private.

I don’t feel much empathy for people who disparage intelligence and learning (the foundations of which they benefit from every day). I especially don’t feel empathy for people who disparage teachers while simultaneously imparting toxic traits to their children.

I don’t feel much empathy for people who don’t care much for their children living in a better circumstance than they had.

I don’t feel empathy with people who try to resolve disputes with threats and physical violence.

Dems have some of these people too, but proportionally, and this is an anecdotal observation, I have met far more of them who openly support Trump and disparage Democrats in general.

It is the overgeneralization that presents the problem. And the patronizing attitude that gets projected.

Nobody likes to be told they are ignorant. It is a poor tactic for persuasion and leads to defensive reactions. Even irrational ones.

 

[astonmartin708]

It is the overgeneralization that presents the problem. And the patronizing attitude that gets projected.

Nobody likes to be told they are ignorant. It is a poor tactic for persuasion and leads to defensive reactions. Even irrational ones.

I agree that people don’t enjoy it and it can make them combative, but I don’t know if refusing to acknowledge reality does much good either.

It’s a touchy subject.

When I see some of these behaviors being adopted or supported at a national party level (like disparaging learning) I feel it has to be addressed.

Let me say this, I’m not totally devoid of classlessness myself sometimes and I admit I can be hypocritical in this realm, for instance I moved into a neighborhood with a lot of older upper middle class folks not too long ago and I struggle to take care of my yard with the same quality that some of my neighbors do especially those who are retirees, and it makes me feel pretty terrible to be the person bringing the rest of the neighborhood down sometimes. It’s a never ending struggle to try and get better / do better.

 

[lawpoke87]

I agree that people don’t enjoy it and it can make them combative, but I don’t know if refusing to acknowledge reality does much good either.

It’s a touchy subject.

When I see some of these behaviors being adopted or supported at a national party level (like disparaging learning) I feel it has to be addressed.

Let me say this, I’m not totally devoid of classlessness myself sometimes and I admit I can be hypocritical in this realm, for instance I moved into a neighborhood with a lot of older upper middle class folks not too long ago and I struggle to take care of my yard with the same quality that some of my neighbors do, and it makes me feel pretty terrible to be the person bringing the rest of the neighborhood down sometimes. It’s a never ending struggle to try and get better / do better.

The problem is you ignore the some of the same characteristics in Dems because your blind partisanship. There’s a significant portion of the Dem base who simply do not believe education is important. Yet I have never seen you call them out. Why….because your inability to logically reason due to partisanship. Your constantly denigrate those who vote differently than you or even those who your Democratic leaders oppose at the time. It is what it is. Unfortunately, it makes you look as dumb as those people you attack.

 

[astonmartin708]

The problem is you ignore the some of the same characteristics in Dems because your blind partisanship. There’s a significant portion of the Dem base who simply do not believe education is important. Yet I have never seen you call them out. Why….because your inability to logically reason due to partisanship. Your constantly denigrate those who vote differently than you or even those who your Democratic leaders oppose at the time. It is what it is. Unfortunately, it makes you look as dumb as those people you attack.

I agree that I have not been vocal enough on that for the Dems. You are correct. It’s not that I have not considered the issue previously, I think several minority groups in the Democratic Party tend to have similar issues with ignoring the importance of education and that also why they’re being targeted by Trump to carve off (mainly poor Latinos and African Americans)

What I will say is more of a positive is that this stance is not worming its way into the Dem party platform nationally like it is in the Republican Party.

 

[lawpoke87]

I agree that I have not been vocal enough on that for the Dems. You are correct. It’s not that I have not considered the issue previously, I think several minority groups in the Democratic Party tend to have similar issues with ignoring the importance of education and that also why they’re being targeted by Trump to carve off (mainly poor Latinos and African Americans)

What I will say is more of a positive is that this stance is not worming its way into the Dem party platform nationally like it is in the Republican Party.

It’s worse. If Dems really cared about those minorities they would be highly critical of their approach to education. Tough love if you will. Instead they might casually mention it and quickly move on. This has been going on for years. They simply don’t care as long as those people vote for them. I think at times they prefer to keep them dependent on government as a means to control.

 

[astonmartin708]

Threatening violence to resolve disputes…. That’s “white trash”. Doesn’t matter if you are billionaire or a pauper. Class is in your words and deeds.

 

[astonmartin708]

It’s worse. If Dems really cared about those minorities they would be highly critical of their approach to education. Tough love if you will. Instead they might casually mention it and quickly move on. This has been going on for years. They simply don’t care as long as those people vote for them. I think at times they prefer to keep them dependent on government as a means to control.

When is the Republican Party going to start being critical of its own lower classes approach to education?

And I’m not talking about anti-wokeness.

 

[drboobay]

I don't like terms like "white trash" or "Puerto Rican trash" because they are labeling of large groups. I don't think emphasizing "class" distinctions is all that helpful either. My wife is pretty liberal, but she made the point that when we grew up, nobody wanted to be labeled. That was liberalism - don't label me or assume I am this or that because I fit into a group. That was considered prejudice. Now, everyone wants to label everyone else with a million so-called identities. Both sides do it incessantly!

Slightly different subject, but I found it eye opening. NPR did a story interviewing schoolchildren about political views and tolerance, and it was counterintuitive. This is not science, but it does make you think. They asked several kids if they thought their parents would be OK if they went over to play at the house of someone on the other side of the political spectrum. Guess what - most kids whose parents were Trump supporters said "sure, I don't see why not." Most kids whose parents were Harris supporters said "I don't think my parents would let me because they hate Trump so much." What does that say? Who is more open minded?

I say this as someone who can't stand Trump and would vote for pretty much anyone else. I plan to vote for Harris later today. But you have to think about these things and have a little bit of humility IMO.

 

[astonmartin708]

Meanwhile….

I don't like terms like "white trash" or "Puerto Rican trash" because they are labeling of large groups. I don't think emphasizing "class" distinctions is all that helpful either. My wife is pretty liberal, but she made the point that when we grew up, nobody wanted to be labeled. That was liberalism - don't label me or assume I am this or that because I fit into a group. That was considered prejudice. Now, everyone wants to label everyone else with a million so-called identities. Both sides do it incessantly!

Slightly different subject, but I found it eye opening. NPR did a story interviewing schoolchildren about political views and tolerance, and it was counterintuitive. This is not science, but it does make you think. They asked several kids if they thought their parents would be OK if they went over to play at the house of someone on the other side of the political spectrum. Guess what - most kids whose parents were Trump supporters said "sure, I don't see why not." Most kids whose parents were Harris supporters said "I don't think my parents would let me because they hate Trump so much." What does that say? Who is more open minded?

I say this as someone who can't stand Trump and would vote for pretty much anyone else. I plan to vote for Harris later today. But you have to think about these things and have a little bit of humility IMO.

How much of that attitude is class based? I think, even being poor, many of my friends parents growing up, wouldn’t have had any problem sending their kid to a birthday party in a rich neighborhood…. But many parents do get a bit nervous sending their kids to mobile home parks or projects if nothing else because of the sketchiness of some of the surroundings and some bad habits their children might see / pickup.

It’s something I’ve thought a lot about, living in a somewhat lower socioeconomic area, but being in one of the relatively few higher socioeconomic neighborhoods…

One part of me wants to keep my child grounded and know humility and empathy, but the other part wants to avoid imprinting some of the negative experiences I had hanging out with low class poor kids when I was young. (Not to say rich kids didn’t have their own foibles that I want to avoid as well). That being said, I was a poor kid who was friends with quite a few rich kids so maybe I should be repaying the kindness showed to me.

I suppose ultimately “class” in terms of respectability exists in a realm outside of wealth or poverty. I would argue that Trump himself has very little class and it has rubbed off on many of his supporters who

Also, anecdotally I would say that the parents who were most crappy to me about hanging out with their kids were also the most conservative and religious and were not the wealthiest of my friends. Now that was decades ago, so maybe things have changed.

 

[Clong83a]

I don't like terms like "white trash" or "Puerto Rican trash" because they are labeling of large groups. I don't think emphasizing "class" distinctions is all that helpful either. My wife is pretty liberal, but she made the point that when we grew up, nobody wanted to be labeled. That was liberalism - don't label me or assume I am this or that because I fit into a group. That was considered prejudice. Now, everyone wants to label everyone else with a million so-called identities. Both sides do it incessantly!

Slightly different subject, but I found it eye opening. NPR did a story interviewing schoolchildren about political views and tolerance, and it was counterintuitive. This is not science, but it does make you think. They asked several kids if they thought their parents would be OK if they went over to play at the house of someone on the other side of the political spectrum. Guess what - most kids whose parents were Trump supporters said "sure, I don't see why not." Most kids whose parents were Harris supporters said "I don't think my parents would let me because they hate Trump so much." What does that say? Who is more open minded?

I say this as someone who can't stand Trump and would vote for pretty much anyone else. I plan to vote for Harris later today. But you have to think about these things and have a little bit of humility IMO.

That's really interesting, and now it has got me thinking how my own kids would respond. They know that mommy and daddy think Trump is a jerk, but I hope that they don't think we'd be weird about them playing at someone's house that supports him.

In reality, there's a couple of houses that I don't like my kids playing at. One is an outspoken conservative/Trumper household, and the other are outspoken liberals. It has nothing to do with politics. I know that one household has a history of unsecured guns around the house and I find that an unacceptable environment for children. And the other has a bull mastiff that has a known history of biting guests.

I should think that it goes without saying that if my kids spend time at your house, I expect you won't lecture them about politics, no matter who/what you were talking about. That's simply an inappropriate conversation to have with my kids and they wouldn't go back for a while if I heard about it.

 

[aTUfan]

When is the Republican Party going to start being critical of its own lower classes approach to education?

And I’m not talking about anti-wokeness.

not everyone needs to go to college. Someone needs to loIknow how to repair an AC

 

[Clong83a]

not everyone needs to go to college. Someone needs to loIknow how to repair an AC

I agree.

But I'll point out that if higher education is affordable, then you can have both. Ideally, if that A/C repairman was able to go to college and learn about classic literature, or whatever, that would be amazing.

Not as a requirement, of course, college isn't for everyone. But it's not a jobs program either, and it shouldn't be closed off to people just because they are planning on a blue-collar career.

 

[lawpoke87]

Something to watch tomorrow is the release of the best poll in the country…the Selzer poll for Iowa. Trump was up 4 in September. If he is up less than 7 it bodes well for Harris in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Anything over 7 and Harris will struggle in the Midwest.

I will post when the poll is released tomorrow.

 

[astonmartin708]

not everyone needs to go to college. Someone needs to loIknow how to repair an AC

I never said anything about college. I said stop disparaging knowledge and belittling intelligence.

Stop justifying your kid being shiit-heel in class which ruins the education of others. Encourage them to learn and emphasize the value of becoming more adept at the tangential disciplines which will help them be better at their craft, even if they’re not interested in learning quantum physics or calculus.

Maybe learning the tangentials to managing inventories, supply chains, and communicating with subordinates and customers will help them own their own successful plumbing business someday. Or maybe they could learn about marketing and technology fundamentals to more effectively advertise their services and be more competitive in their regions.

Also, stop discouraging them from learning the important historical, civics, and technology / science concepts that society would benefit from them knowing. There’s no excuse for kids being allowed to disregard social studies classes.

The amount of American adults being lured into faux science or falsified / misconstrued historical narratives these days because of their ignorance and lack of comprehension of good research practices is sickening. If these people are going to vote they need to be able to do so more intelligently than they have been to date.

 

[drboobay]

I never said anything about college. I said stop disparaging knowledge and belittling intelligence.

Stop justifying your kid being shiit-heel in class which ruins the education of others. Encourage them to learn and emphasize the value of becoming more adept at the tangential disciplines which will help them be better at their craft, even if they’re not interested in learning quantum physics or calculus.

Maybe learning the tangentials to managing inventories, supply chains, and communicating with subordinates and customers will help them own their own successful plumbing business someday. Or maybe they could learn about marketing and technology fundamentals to more effectively advertise their services and be more competitive in their regions.

Also, stop discouraging them from learning the important historical, civics, and technology / science concepts that society would benefit from them knowing. There’s no excuse for kids being allowed to disregard social studies classes.

The amount of American adults being lured into faux science or falsified / misconstrued historical narratives these days because of their ignorance and lack of comprehension of good research practices is sickening. If these people are going to vote they need to be able to do so more intelligently than they have been to date.

What is your evidence this is actually happening?

I agree there is much rhetoric to this end. Even efforts. Ryan Walters I would put largely in this category. But I think such efforts have had relatively little success.

 

[lawpoke87]

What is your evidence this is actually happening?

I agree there is much rhetoric to this end. Even efforts. Ryan Walters I would put largely in this category. But I think such efforts have had relatively little success.

Haven’t seen any evidence of this with my high school student at Bixby. Same ole same ole as far as curriculum.

 

[astonmartin708]

What is your evidence this is actually happening?

I agree there is much rhetoric to this end. Even efforts. Ryan Walters I would put largely in this category. But I think such efforts have had relatively little success.

I think aTufan’s response to my criticism of conservative’s relationship to education acts as evidence. When I say people need to stop being dismissive of knowledge and education, the first response was “not everyone needs to go to college… some people need to be AC repair men”

That attitude in itself is what I’m talking about. Assuming that just because your kid may not grow up to be an engineer or a doctor that they don’t need to respect and value knowledge means you are communicating the wrong thing to your child. What gets communicated to children when they hear that sort of comment is that they have permission to goof off in class because in their parent’s opinion what they are being forced to learn isn’t valuable. That attitude can transform into a behavior where anything they find difficult or boring, they feel they should be allowed to ignore… and that bleeds into their adult life where they give up trying to master things at the slightest inconvenience, meaning they only care to consider information that’s surface level…. Which is how you get people like Trump feeding the bull crap and them eating it up.

I deal with this often as I sometimes have to craft trainings for entry level (i.e. Wrench turning) employees and we have to dumb down even simple concepts because they can’t pay attention long enough to grasp what we pay them to. And that problem extends across multiple states, Republican and Democrat.

P.s. I wasn’t talking about curriculum issues that Oklahoma and several other states are falling into. That’s a separate discussion.

 

[lawpoke87]

I think aTufan’s response to my criticism of conservative’s relationship to education acts as evidence. When I say people need to stop being dismissive of knowledge and education, the first response was “not everyone needs to go to college… some people need to be AC repair men”

That attitude in itself is what I’m talking about. Assuming that just because your kid may not grow up to be an engineer or a doctor that they don’t need to respect and value knowledge means you are communicating the wrong thing to your child. What gets communicated to children when they hear that is that they have permission to goof off in class because in their parent’s opinion what they are being forced to learn isn’t valuable.

P.s. I wasn’t talking about curriculum issues that Oklahoma and several other states are falling into. That’s a separate discussion.

I think Tulsa is likely similar to most areas. I have friends and family who teach at Bixby, Union, Owasso, Jenks, Glenpool, Sapulpa and two at risk TPS. Parents in the burbs are generally engaged and active in the educational process including extra curricular activities. Which tends to show it’s with high academic performance from their children.

The at risk TPS schools generally lack parental involvement. Far too many of those parents show a lack of concern when their kids perform poorly or fail to complete assignments. These kids were particularly hit hard with the Covid closures. Over half of students in my two friends classes completed zero or a very minimal amount of work. They lost almost a year.

Sapulpa and Glenpool are a mixture of the two as one might expect due to the diversity of those districts.

 

[astonmartin708]

I think Tulsa is likely similar to most areas. I have friends and family who teach at Bixby, Union, Owasso, Jenks, Glenpool, Sapulpa and two at risk TPS. Parents in the burbs are generally engaged and active in the educational process including extra curricular activities. Which tends to show it’s with high academic performance from their children.

The at risk TPS schools generally lack parental involvement. Far too many of those parents show a lack of concern when their kids perform poorly or fail to complete assignments. These kids were particularly hit hard with the Covid closures. Over half of students in my two friends classes completed zero or a very minimal amount of work. They lost almost a year.

Sapulpa and Glenpool are a mixture of the two as one might expect due to the diversity of those districts.

It's not only an inner city issue, though I agree that it's a big issue there (sometimes for different reasons than the ones I listed above).

Some districts are of course better than others, and that's mostly because engaged parents move to places where their child is most likely to benefit.

I don't care so much about extra curricular engagement. There are many parents who overemphasize extra curriculars and don't promote 'curriculars' enough. There are also families out there who can't afford to participate in many extra curriculars, but that doesn't mean they skimp on the educational engagement.

 

[lawpoke87]

It's not only an inner city issue, though I agree that it's a big issue there (sometimes for different reasons than the ones I listed above).

Some districts are of course better than others, and that's mostly because engaged parents move to places where their child is most likely to benefit.

I don't care so much about extra curricular engagement. There are many parents who overemphasize extra curriculars and don't promote 'curriculars' enough. There are also families out there who can't afford to participate in many extra curriculars, but that doesn't mean they skimp on the educational engagement.

Participating in activities like choir, drama, debate, etc.. aren’t expensive. Wasn’t really the focus of my post though. My thoughts were more directed toward parental involvement in the academics of their kids.

 

[lawpoke87]

Selzer has Harris +3. She will be the next President of the U.S.

 

[drboobay]

Selzer has Harris +3. She will be the next President of the U.S.

I sure hope so based solely on the alternative.

 

[lawpoke87]

#1

I sure hope so based solely on the alternative.

#1 pollster in the country. Even if she’s offer 3-4 points (never has been) Harris still wins easily.