2024 Election prediction/discussion

[Babe the Blue Ox]

Today's Updates:

WI - Harris +0.6% (10)
MI - Harris +1.9% (15)
NV - Trump +0.4% (6)
PA - Trump +0.5% (19)
NC - Trump +1.4% (16)
GA - Trump +2.0% (16)
AZ - Trump +2.2% (11)

Popular Vote - Harris +0.9%

EC - Trump 287-251

 

[lawpoke87]

Harris currently has some tangible momentum in the race. Polls have swung her way the last several days. I would rate her as a slight favorite as of today.

 

[Clong83a]

Harris currently has some tangible momentum in the race. Polls have swung her way the last several days. I would rate her as a slight favorite as of today.

Me too.

Not sure how accurate the polls are this year. They undervalued Trump in key swing states 2016 and 2020, but I they are all working on correcting those errors. There are three distinct possibilities, all with an equal chance in my mind:
1) They are still undervaluing his support and he wins without much drama.
2) They are much more accurate this year and the race is a coin flip, but I'd give the slight edge to Harris.
3) They've overcorrected to try and capture Trump support that isn't really there this year and Harris wins without much of the expected drama.

I know number 3 might be the most controversial, but here's my reasoning:

Many pollsters have started doing a weighting on their sample to previous known election results. That is, in order to capture the "shy" Trump voters they keep missing, they overweight the responses of people who say they previously voted for Trump in proportion to his actual vote share from 2020. That way they can account for the missing Trump voters in years past.

But doing that effectively ensures that your poll results for 2024 look an awful lot like final election results from 2020, and makes it harder to pick up on any real shifts in the electorate. Lo and behold, polls are basically predicting 2020 results within the margin of error.

It's actually generally considered a poor practice to weight with previous results, but they are bound and determined to not whiff on him again. If Trump supporters turn out in similar numbers and proportions to 2020, they'll look like geniuses. If his support has actually waned, they could miss badly in the opposite direction as 2016/2020. It's also possible his efforts to gain new voters from groups that don't traditionally show up at the polls are working and they whiff yet again on him and he outperforms.

But yeah, I dunno. If you take them at face value, then I think Harris has a slight edge, but I wouldn't bet money on it either way.

 

[aTUfan]

the party of inclusion thinks that 80,000,000 Americans are Garbage

 

[TU Sepp]

I heard that also...

Then I saw a printed version of what Biden said.

Now, it looks like the printed version might have been altered.

 

[drboobay]

I don't

I heard that also...

Then I saw a printed version of what Biden said.

Now, it looks like the printed version might have been altered.

Who knows what he meant. As we all must acknowledge, he is prone to losing his train of thought.

 

[lawpoke87]

“The only garbage I see floating around are his supporters” was the exact quote. Didn’t see it as a big deal. Politics are politics. He was commenting on the comedian at a Trump rally making a joke.

 

[drboobay]

This is all so ridiculous. That comment is child's play compared to other things I've heard. But I don't enjoy any of it. Politics sucks. I prefer science.

 

[astonmartin708]

lol. The likes of John McCain and Bob Dole are not the same opponent as Donald Trump. Reading your posts I’m beginning to realize how the same party could be endorsed for 50 straight years regardless of candidate and appreciate this change all the more.

The likes of Nixon and Trump are not incredibly different.

 

[astonmartin708]

the party of inclusion thinks that 80,000,000 Americans are Garbage

I prefer the term “white trash”

 

[lawpoke87]

The election still remains very close. Polls favorable to both candidates have come out in the last 24 hours. Which ones have the modeling correct is the question. At the end of the day it all boils down to turnout. If Harris can capture the Biden turnout, she will win easily. If she fails to motivate the Dems to get out and vote this will be very close. Trump needs to surpass his 2020 vote total imo. Looks like he’s doing better with minorities….especially blacks and Hispanics. Still think this comes down to Dem turnout. Think this all comes down to Pennsylvania. Nail biter coming our way Tuesday night.

 

[drboobay]

The likes of Nixon and Trump are not incredibly different.

I disagree.

 

[drboobay]

I prefer the term “white trash”

Ick. You reveal yourself sir.

 

[lawpoke87]

I prefer the term “white trash”

I can’t imagine having this much hate and prejudice inside me.

 

[drboobay]

I can’t imagine having this much hate and prejudice inside me.

Unfortunately this kind of thinking partly justifies the reaction against "elites" we hear so much about. Nobody likes being belittled. It reinforces populist thinking as a reaction.

 

[astonmartin708]

Ick. You reveal yourself sir.

Let me rephrase. It is a reductive term to call his ENTIRE base, but I find that many of his base do fit that term. I have family members who fit both categories…. And I also worked very hard in my life to overcome my surroundings of crass, classless people.

 

[astonmartin708]

Unfortunately this kind of thinking partly justifies the reaction against "elites" we hear so much about. Nobody likes being belittled. It reinforces populist thinking as a reaction.

I don’t feel too much empathy for people who are okay smoking and / or cursing constantly around (or sometimes at) their children in public and private.

I don’t feel much empathy for people who disparage intelligence and learning (the foundations of which they benefit from every day). I especially don’t feel empathy for people who disparage teachers while simultaneously imparting toxic traits to their children.

I don’t feel much empathy for people who don’t care much for their children living in a better circumstance than they had.

I don’t feel empathy with people who try to resolve disputes with threats and physical violence.

Dems have some of these people too, but proportionally, and this is an anecdotal observation, I have met far more of them who openly support Trump and disparage Democrats in general.

 

[drboobay]

I don’t feel too much empathy for people who are okay smoking and / or cursing constantly around (or sometimes at) their children in public and private.

I don’t feel much empathy for people who disparage intelligence and learning (the foundations of which they benefit from every day). I especially don’t feel empathy for people who disparage teachers while simultaneously imparting toxic traits to their children.

I don’t feel much empathy for people who don’t care much for their children living in a better circumstance than they had.

I don’t feel empathy with people who try to resolve disputes with threats and physical violence.

Dems have some of these people too, but proportionally, and this is an anecdotal observation, I have met far more of them who openly support Trump and disparage Democrats in general.

It is the overgeneralization that presents the problem. And the patronizing attitude that gets projected.

Nobody likes to be told they are ignorant. It is a poor tactic for persuasion and leads to defensive reactions. Even irrational ones.

 

[astonmartin708]

It is the overgeneralization that presents the problem. And the patronizing attitude that gets projected.

Nobody likes to be told they are ignorant. It is a poor tactic for persuasion and leads to defensive reactions. Even irrational ones.

I agree that people don’t enjoy it and it can make them combative, but I don’t know if refusing to acknowledge reality does much good either.

It’s a touchy subject.

When I see some of these behaviors being adopted or supported at a national party level (like disparaging learning) I feel it has to be addressed.

Let me say this, I’m not totally devoid of classlessness myself sometimes and I admit I can be hypocritical in this realm, for instance I moved into a neighborhood with a lot of older upper middle class folks not too long ago and I struggle to take care of my yard with the same quality that some of my neighbors do especially those who are retirees, and it makes me feel pretty terrible to be the person bringing the rest of the neighborhood down sometimes. It’s a never ending struggle to try and get better / do better.

 

[lawpoke87]

I agree that people don’t enjoy it and it can make them combative, but I don’t know if refusing to acknowledge reality does much good either.

It’s a touchy subject.

When I see some of these behaviors being adopted or supported at a national party level (like disparaging learning) I feel it has to be addressed.

Let me say this, I’m not totally devoid of classlessness myself sometimes and I admit I can be hypocritical in this realm, for instance I moved into a neighborhood with a lot of older upper middle class folks not too long ago and I struggle to take care of my yard with the same quality that some of my neighbors do, and it makes me feel pretty terrible to be the person bringing the rest of the neighborhood down sometimes. It’s a never ending struggle to try and get better / do better.

The problem is you ignore the some of the same characteristics in Dems because your blind partisanship. There’s a significant portion of the Dem base who simply do not believe education is important. Yet I have never seen you call them out. Why….because your inability to logically reason due to partisanship. Your constantly denigrate those who vote differently than you or even those who your Democratic leaders oppose at the time. It is what it is. Unfortunately, it makes you look as dumb as those people you attack.

 

[astonmartin708]

The problem is you ignore the some of the same characteristics in Dems because your blind partisanship. There’s a significant portion of the Dem base who simply do not believe education is important. Yet I have never seen you call them out. Why….because your inability to logically reason due to partisanship. Your constantly denigrate those who vote differently than you or even those who your Democratic leaders oppose at the time. It is what it is. Unfortunately, it makes you look as dumb as those people you attack.

I agree that I have not been vocal enough on that for the Dems. You are correct. It’s not that I have not considered the issue previously, I think several minority groups in the Democratic Party tend to have similar issues with ignoring the importance of education and that also why they’re being targeted by Trump to carve off (mainly poor Latinos and African Americans)

What I will say is more of a positive is that this stance is not worming its way into the Dem party platform nationally like it is in the Republican Party.

 

[lawpoke87]

I agree that I have not been vocal enough on that for the Dems. You are correct. It’s not that I have not considered the issue previously, I think several minority groups in the Democratic Party tend to have similar issues with ignoring the importance of education and that also why they’re being targeted by Trump to carve off (mainly poor Latinos and African Americans)

What I will say is more of a positive is that this stance is not worming its way into the Dem party platform nationally like it is in the Republican Party.

It’s worse. If Dems really cared about those minorities they would be highly critical of their approach to education. Tough love if you will. Instead they might casually mention it and quickly move on. This has been going on for years. They simply don’t care as long as those people vote for them. I think at times they prefer to keep them dependent on government as a means to control.

 

[astonmartin708]

Threatening violence to resolve disputes…. That’s “white trash”. Doesn’t matter if you are billionaire or a pauper. Class is in your words and deeds.

 

[astonmartin708]

It’s worse. If Dems really cared about those minorities they would be highly critical of their approach to education. Tough love if you will. Instead they might casually mention it and quickly move on. This has been going on for years. They simply don’t care as long as those people vote for them. I think at times they prefer to keep them dependent on government as a means to control.

When is the Republican Party going to start being critical of its own lower classes approach to education?

And I’m not talking about anti-wokeness.

 

[drboobay]

I don't like terms like "white trash" or "Puerto Rican trash" because they are labeling of large groups. I don't think emphasizing "class" distinctions is all that helpful either. My wife is pretty liberal, but she made the point that when we grew up, nobody wanted to be labeled. That was liberalism - don't label me or assume I am this or that because I fit into a group. That was considered prejudice. Now, everyone wants to label everyone else with a million so-called identities. Both sides do it incessantly!

Slightly different subject, but I found it eye opening. NPR did a story interviewing schoolchildren about political views and tolerance, and it was counterintuitive. This is not science, but it does make you think. They asked several kids if they thought their parents would be OK if they went over to play at the house of someone on the other side of the political spectrum. Guess what - most kids whose parents were Trump supporters said "sure, I don't see why not." Most kids whose parents were Harris supporters said "I don't think my parents would let me because they hate Trump so much." What does that say? Who is more open minded?

I say this as someone who can't stand Trump and would vote for pretty much anyone else. I plan to vote for Harris later today. But you have to think about these things and have a little bit of humility IMO.

 

[astonmartin708]

Meanwhile….

I don't like terms like "white trash" or "Puerto Rican trash" because they are labeling of large groups. I don't think emphasizing "class" distinctions is all that helpful either. My wife is pretty liberal, but she made the point that when we grew up, nobody wanted to be labeled. That was liberalism - don't label me or assume I am this or that because I fit into a group. That was considered prejudice. Now, everyone wants to label everyone else with a million so-called identities. Both sides do it incessantly!

Slightly different subject, but I found it eye opening. NPR did a story interviewing schoolchildren about political views and tolerance, and it was counterintuitive. This is not science, but it does make you think. They asked several kids if they thought their parents would be OK if they went over to play at the house of someone on the other side of the political spectrum. Guess what - most kids whose parents were Trump supporters said "sure, I don't see why not." Most kids whose parents were Harris supporters said "I don't think my parents would let me because they hate Trump so much." What does that say? Who is more open minded?

I say this as someone who can't stand Trump and would vote for pretty much anyone else. I plan to vote for Harris later today. But you have to think about these things and have a little bit of humility IMO.

How much of that attitude is class based? I think, even being poor, many of my friends parents growing up, wouldn’t have had any problem sending their kid to a birthday party in a rich neighborhood…. But many parents do get a bit nervous sending their kids to mobile home parks or projects if nothing else because of the sketchiness of some of the surroundings and some bad habits their children might see / pickup.

It’s something I’ve thought a lot about, living in a somewhat lower socioeconomic area, but being in one of the relatively few higher socioeconomic neighborhoods…

One part of me wants to keep my child grounded and know humility and empathy, but the other part wants to avoid imprinting some of the negative experiences I had hanging out with low class poor kids when I was young. (Not to say rich kids didn’t have their own foibles that I want to avoid as well). That being said, I was a poor kid who was friends with quite a few rich kids so maybe I should be repaying the kindness showed to me.

I suppose ultimately “class” in terms of respectability exists in a realm outside of wealth or poverty. I would argue that Trump himself has very little class and it has rubbed off on many of his supporters who

Also, anecdotally I would say that the parents who were most crappy to me about hanging out with their kids were also the most conservative and religious and were not the wealthiest of my friends. Now that was decades ago, so maybe things have changed.

 

[Clong83a]

I don't like terms like "white trash" or "Puerto Rican trash" because they are labeling of large groups. I don't think emphasizing "class" distinctions is all that helpful either. My wife is pretty liberal, but she made the point that when we grew up, nobody wanted to be labeled. That was liberalism - don't label me or assume I am this or that because I fit into a group. That was considered prejudice. Now, everyone wants to label everyone else with a million so-called identities. Both sides do it incessantly!

Slightly different subject, but I found it eye opening. NPR did a story interviewing schoolchildren about political views and tolerance, and it was counterintuitive. This is not science, but it does make you think. They asked several kids if they thought their parents would be OK if they went over to play at the house of someone on the other side of the political spectrum. Guess what - most kids whose parents were Trump supporters said "sure, I don't see why not." Most kids whose parents were Harris supporters said "I don't think my parents would let me because they hate Trump so much." What does that say? Who is more open minded?

I say this as someone who can't stand Trump and would vote for pretty much anyone else. I plan to vote for Harris later today. But you have to think about these things and have a little bit of humility IMO.

That's really interesting, and now it has got me thinking how my own kids would respond. They know that mommy and daddy think Trump is a jerk, but I hope that they don't think we'd be weird about them playing at someone's house that supports him.

In reality, there's a couple of houses that I don't like my kids playing at. One is an outspoken conservative/Trumper household, and the other are outspoken liberals. It has nothing to do with politics. I know that one household has a history of unsecured guns around the house and I find that an unacceptable environment for children. And the other has a bull mastiff that has a known history of biting guests.

I should think that it goes without saying that if my kids spend time at your house, I expect you won't lecture them about politics, no matter who/what you were talking about. That's simply an inappropriate conversation to have with my kids and they wouldn't go back for a while if I heard about it.

 

[aTUfan]

When is the Republican Party going to start being critical of its own lower classes approach to education?

And I’m not talking about anti-wokeness.

not everyone needs to go to college. Someone needs to loIknow how to repair an AC