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2024 Election prediction/discussion

Two national polls out today. Emerson and TIPP. Both have race tied but both show some movement toward Trump. Harris had a huge rally with Beyoncé last night in Houston hoping to help Allred in the Senate against Cruz. Both campaigns are now focused on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I now expect Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Dems simply aren’t showing up to vote in this states for Harris. Dems are also having issues in Nevada but I can’t underestimate the Dem ground game there. They always seem to pull out national races.

Popular vote looks like an absolutely tossup ten days out.
If Trump wins NC it will be a surprise to me based on the GOP state candidates.
 
Several polls out this am contain good news for Harris. ABC national has her up 4. CBS has her up in all 3 crucial rust belt states. If accurate she would win the presidency.
 
What it comes down to now is Pennsylvania. The toss up state with the most electoral votes will probably decide the election, and it might even be the most tightly contested.
 
What it comes down to now is Pennsylvania. The toss up state with the most electoral votes will probably decide the election, and it might even be the most tightly contested.
Good call. I believe Harris needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump can win one of the three a likely be ok. That said….whoever wins Pennsylvania likely wins the other two as well. I suspect all three of those states will be very close.
 
Two national polls out today. Emerson and TIPP. Both have race tied but both show some movement toward Trump. Harris had a huge rally with Beyoncé last night in Houston hoping to help Allred in the Senate against Cruz. Both campaigns are now focused on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I now expect Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Dems simply aren’t showing up to vote in this states for Harris. Dems are also having issues in Nevada but I can’t underestimate the Dem ground game there. They always seem to pull out national races.

Popular vote looks like an absolutely tossup ten days out.
The Republican Party is about to elect a convicted criminal to the presidency of the United States. Congratulations. Washington Jefferson and Lincoln are all looking down shaking their heads.

Care to make a prediction if he’ll dance to the Imperial March from Star Wars at his inauguration?
 
The Republican Party is about to elect a convicted criminal to the presidency of the United States. Congratulations. Washington Jefferson and Lincoln are all looking down shaking their heads.

Care to make a prediction if he’ll dance to the Imperial March from Star Wars at his inauguration?
I’m not convinced he’s going to win. If he does it will be due to Dems not coming out and supporting Harris in the same manner they did Biden. I expect the Indy vote to split about the same it did in 2020. This race is absolutely a tossup right now.
 
I’m not convinced he’s going to win. If he does it will be due to Dems not coming out and supporting Harris in the same manner they did Biden. I expect the Indy vote to split about the same it did in 2020. This race is absolutely a tossup right now.
No lawpoke, if he wins it will be because he was not thrown in jail after an attempted coup by a jury filled with his accomplices, then he was allowed to run in the Republican Party primaries against a person he tried to have lynched, and he received millions of votes from gullible Republicans in those primaries and then received millions of votes from gullible Republicans in the general election.

You can not blame people who have never voted for him for him being elected and simultaneously ignore those who overlooked his every single flaw and still cast a vote for him.

That would be like blaming everyone in Weimar Germany except the Nazis for Hitler’s rise to power. “If more people had just voted against him he wouldn’t have won” is a terrible argument because it shirks personal responsibility. I can certainly imagine a Goebels trying to make that argument before being executed though.
 
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No lawpoke, if he wins it will be because he was not thrown in jail after an attempted coup by a jury filled with his accomplices, then he was allowed to run in the Republican Party primaries against a person he tried to have lynched, and he received millions of votes from gullible Republicans in those primaries and then received millions of votes from gullible Republicans in the general election.

You can not blame people who have never voted for him for him being elected and simultaneously ignore those who overlooked his every single flaw and still cast a vote for him.

That would be like blaming everyone in Weimar Germany except the Nazis for Hitler’s rise to power. “If more people had just voted against him he wouldn’t have won” is a terrible argument because it shirks personal responsibility. I can certainly imagine a Goebels trying to make that argument before being executed though.
lol. No. It’s because Dems had a coup and nominated an awful candidate. Because the Dems hid Biden’s mental condition until they were forced to put him on display. Because they selected a candidate who bombed the only time she ran for national office. If Harris isn’t elected it’s because Dems didn’t vote for her. Plain and simple. They show up and vote for her like they supported Biden and she is the next President of the United States. Will they vote for an unlikeable slow witted person because they have a D in front of their name? I’m still betting yes. If the Dems were honest about Biden and had an open primary we wouldn’t be in this position. Harris is the result of their dishonesty.
 
Trump holding a rally one week prior to Election Day in a state he has no chance of winning is an odd choice.
 
lol. No. It’s because Dems had a coup and nominated an awful candidate. Because the Dems hid Biden’s mental condition until they were forced to put him on display. Because they selected a candidate who bombed the only time she ran for national office. If Harris isn’t elected it’s because Dems didn’t vote for her. Plain and simple. They show up and vote for her like they supported Biden and she is the next President of the United States. Will they vote for an unlikeable slow witted person because they have a D in front of their name? I’m still betting yes. If the Dems were honest about Biden and had an open primary we wouldn’t be in this position. Harris is the result of their dishonesty.
You’re right and the Nazis bare no responsibility for Hitler… the blackshirts none for Mussolini…. The reds no responsibility for Stalin or Mao /s

If only the opposition had ran better candidates! 😩

Stupid
 
You’re right and the Nazis bare no responsibility for Hitler… the blackshirts none for Mussolini…. The reds no responsibility for Stalin or Mao /s

Stupid
Good god more Nazi crap. The most antisemitic poster on the board continually referring to others as Nazis is fantastic.
 
Good god more Nazi crap. The most antisemitic poster on the board continually referring to others as Nazis is fantastic.
It’s hyperbole. When extrapolated to the extreme the logic that your argument is based upon fails miserably. And Trump and this election are pretty friggin extreme.

(Reductio ad absurdum)
 
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It’s hyperbole. When extrapolated to the extreme the logic argument is based upon fails miserably. And Trump and this election are pretty friggin extreme.

(Reductio ad absurdum)
lol. The logic of not placing blame on the party who didn’t vote for their candidate is lost on me. Especially in American politics.
 
The Republican Party is about to elect a convicted criminal to the presidency of the United States. Congratulations. Washington Jefferson and Lincoln are all looking down shaking their heads.

Care to make a prediction if he’ll dance to the Imperial March from Star Wars at his inauguration?
no one else would have even been charged
 
I’m not convinced he’s going to win. If he does it will be due to Dems not coming out and supporting Harris in the same manner they did Biden. I expect the Indy vote to split about the same it did in 2020. This race is absolutely a tossup right now.
you need to campaign on more than. "I'm not him"
 
lol. The logic of not placing blame on the party who didn’t vote for their candidate is lost on me. Especially in American politics.
The responsibility for a person being elected goes to the people who voted for him and campaigned / lobby for him.
 
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The responsibility for a person being elected goes to the people who voted for him and campaigned / lobby for him.
Goes back to the ole saying….if you don’t vote you can’t complain about results. It’s on you.
 
Goes back to the ole saying….if you don’t vote you can’t complain about results. It’s on you.
No idea what will happen. Harris does not impress me but also does not scare me.

The other guy hates America and what it stands for so he scares me. Pandering to people's fears and insecurities scares me. Not necessarily Nazi stuff but certainly a recipe for authoritarianism and escalating division and strife.
 
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Goes back to the ole saying….if you don’t vote you can’t complain about results. It’s on you.
Goes back to the ole saying, if you’re at a rally where someone is flying a Nazi flag and no one is asking them to remove it…. It’s a Nazi rally.

My grandfather got strafed by Stukas and traipsed halfway across Europe to ensure people like Trump were not in places of power.
 
Goes back to the ole saying, if you’re at a rally where someone is flying a Nazi flag and no one is asking them to remove it…. It’s a Nazi rally.

My grandfather got strafed by Stukas and traipsed halfway across Europe to ensure people like Trump were not in places of power.
Nice to see Trump have a Jewish rally today. We both know Harris never would have such a thing

The most anti semitic poster on this board with more Nazi references huh. Basically every post now
 
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This race has always been about select areas of suburban Michigan and PA. It’s mapped out not just down to the precinct level, but literally individual houses and in some cases identifiable persons inside those homes. It’s that granular. And been that way for 3+ years.

Which is pretty crazy our election comes down to convincing roughly 200,000 people who don’t typically vote to go vote.

If you told me ten years ago that the Republican nominee is depending upon increased turnout in a key demographic of unemployed men, many of color, who regularly consume cannabis or other drugs and engage in excess of five hours of video games or certain podcasts each week, I would have told you that you are crazy.

Or that the Democrat nominee is working multiple paths to victory, one of which is losing the popular vote and still winning the Presidency.

Really interesting race, even without the unique nature of the Harris nomination and other factors.
 
Good god more Nazi crap. The most antisemitic poster on the board continually referring to others as Nazis is fantastic.
They tried calling Eisenhower a Nazi. When that didn’t work, you know because he won the war against them, they called him a communist. Which caused a pundit at the time to quip: “He’s not a communist, he’s a golfer.”
 
They tried calling Eisenhower a Nazi. When that didn’t work, you know because he won the war against them, they called him a communist. Which caused a pundit at the time to quip: “He’s not a communist, he’s a golfer.”
It’s what you do when your candidate is badly trailing on the top issues of an election. What do you do when you can’t win on the issues…name calling. Never thought I’d see the day when the Hitler candidate has Jewish flags flying at his largest rally but here we are…. Ironic that the anti semitic party is the one calling the other Nazis. Love politics.
 
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They tried calling Eisenhower a Nazi. When that didn’t work, you know because he won the war against them, they called him a communist. Which caused a pundit at the time to quip: “He’s not a communist, he’s a golfer.”
Eisenhower never used his followers to try and violently overthrow Congress in hopes of seizing power.

Thanks for playing. Better luck next time.
 
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Nice to see Trump have a Jewish rally today. We both know Harris never would have such a thing

The most anti semitic poster on this board with more Nazi references huh. Basically every post now
Go **** yourself with that line. I don’t dislike Jews. I dislike Netanyahu because he’s committing acts of genocide in response to acts of genocide.

Only one of our parties regularly has skinheads, klan members, and ultra nationalists at it.

Too bad Trumps own Chief of Staff acknowledged in a signed letter that Trump is a fascist. It’s not a question about if anymore. It’s a question of how much.
 
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Go **** yourself with that line. I don’t dislike Jews. I dislike Netanyahu because he’s committing acts of genocide in response to acts of genocide.

Only one of our parties regularly has skinheads, klan members, and ultra nationalists at it.
You are the most anti Israel poster on this board by a large margin. You make no distinction between Netanyahu and the Israeli people. Don’t get pissed when you’re called out for calling other people Nazis.
 
L
It’s what you do when your candidate is badly trailing on the top issues of an election. What do you do when you can’t win on the issues…name calling. Never thought I’d see the day when the Hitler candidate has Jewish flags flying at his largest rally but here we are…. Ironic that the anti semitic party is the one calling the other Nazis. Love politics.
Ironic that you devolve everything regarding Israel into loves Jews or hates Jews. If I dislike what Peru does, does it make me anti-Christian?
 
You are the most anti Israel poster on this board by a large margin. You make no distinction between Netanyahu and the Israeli people. Don’t get pissed when you’re called out for calling other people Nazis.
That is blatantly false and I have made that repeatedly clear. I have no animus towards Jews or Jewish faith.

The Nazis weren’t just bad because of the Holocaust. In fact the Holocaust had almost nothing to do with the US going to war against Fascism.
 
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That is blatantly false and I have made that repeatedly clear. I have no animus towards Jews or Jewish faith.

The Nazis weren’t just bad because of the Holocaust. In fact the Holocaust had almost nothing to do with the US going to war against Fascism.
Yet many of your posts contain a negative Israel/Jewish slant and have for sometime. I just found it ironic that our most negative Jewish poster is now posting Hitler references on almost every post. It is what it is.
 
Go **** yourself with that line. I don’t dislike Jews. I dislike Netanyahu because he’s committing acts of genocide in response to acts of genocide.

Only one of our parties regularly has skinheads, klan members, and ultra nationalists at it.

Too bad Trumps own Chief of Staff acknowledged in a signed letter that Trump is a fascist. It’s not a question about if anymore. It’s a question of how much.
The really insidious guy, is the guy behind Trump, Stephen Miller. The worst stuff coming out of Trumps campaign against every guy that isn't white, is written into his speeches and policies by Stephen Miller. This joke of a politician makes Trump look Nancy and Polly Anna.
 
The really insidious guy, is the guy behind Trump, Stephen Miller. The worst stuff coming out of Trumps campaign against every guy that isn't white, is written into his speeches and policies by Stephen Miller. This joke of a politician makes Trump look Nancy and Polly Anna.
Radical people behind the scenes are often times scarier than those in the front
 
Hard to explain what has occurred politically in Florda over the past 4 years. Pubs are up well over 50Ok in early voting. They’re on pace to hold a 1M edge headed into next Tuesday. Dems won early voting in 2016 and 2020. Trump may win Florida by ten points.

 
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