2024 Election prediction/discussion

[TU1NNJ]

Two national polls out today. Emerson and TIPP. Both have race tied but both show some movement toward Trump. Harris had a huge rally with Beyoncé last night in Houston hoping to help Allred in the Senate against Cruz. Both campaigns are now focused on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I now expect Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Dems simply aren’t showing up to vote in this states for Harris. Dems are also having issues in Nevada but I can’t underestimate the Dem ground game there. They always seem to pull out national races.

Popular vote looks like an absolutely tossup ten days out.

If Trump wins NC it will be a surprise to me based on the GOP state candidates.

 

[lawpoke87]

If Trump wins NC it will be a surprise to me based on the GOP state candidates.

I had Harris winning NC two weeks ago for that very reason. I changed due to Pubs winning the early vote. Something they’ve never done. I’m assuming the Pubs will win Election Day voting as usual btw.

» 2024 General Election Early Vote – North Carolina UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu

 

[lawpoke87]

Several polls out this am contain good news for Harris. ABC national has her up 4. CBS has her up in all 3 crucial rust belt states. If accurate she would win the presidency.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

What it comes down to now is Pennsylvania. The toss up state with the most electoral votes will probably decide the election, and it might even be the most tightly contested.

 

[lawpoke87]

What it comes down to now is Pennsylvania. The toss up state with the most electoral votes will probably decide the election, and it might even be the most tightly contested.

Good call. I believe Harris needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump can win one of the three a likely be ok. That said….whoever wins Pennsylvania likely wins the other two as well. I suspect all three of those states will be very close.

 

[astonmartin708]

Two national polls out today. Emerson and TIPP. Both have race tied but both show some movement toward Trump. Harris had a huge rally with Beyoncé last night in Houston hoping to help Allred in the Senate against Cruz. Both campaigns are now focused on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I now expect Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Dems simply aren’t showing up to vote in this states for Harris. Dems are also having issues in Nevada but I can’t underestimate the Dem ground game there. They always seem to pull out national races.

Popular vote looks like an absolutely tossup ten days out.

The Republican Party is about to elect a convicted criminal to the presidency of the United States. Congratulations. Washington Jefferson and Lincoln are all looking down shaking their heads.

Care to make a prediction if he’ll dance to the Imperial March from Star Wars at his inauguration?

 

[lawpoke87]

The Republican Party is about to elect a convicted criminal to the presidency of the United States. Congratulations. Washington Jefferson and Lincoln are all looking down shaking their heads.

Care to make a prediction if he’ll dance to the Imperial March from Star Wars at his inauguration?

I’m not convinced he’s going to win. If he does it will be due to Dems not coming out and supporting Harris in the same manner they did Biden. I expect the Indy vote to split about the same it did in 2020. This race is absolutely a tossup right now.

 

[astonmartin708]

I’m not convinced he’s going to win. If he does it will be due to Dems not coming out and supporting Harris in the same manner they did Biden. I expect the Indy vote to split about the same it did in 2020. This race is absolutely a tossup right now.

No lawpoke, if he wins it will be because he was not thrown in jail after an attempted coup by a jury filled with his accomplices, then he was allowed to run in the Republican Party primaries against a person he tried to have lynched, and he received millions of votes from gullible Republicans in those primaries and then received millions of votes from gullible Republicans in the general election.

You can not blame people who have never voted for him for him being elected and simultaneously ignore those who overlooked his every single flaw and still cast a vote for him.

That would be like blaming everyone in Weimar Germany except the Nazis for Hitler’s rise to power. “If more people had just voted against him he wouldn’t have won” is a terrible argument because it shirks personal responsibility. I can certainly imagine a Goebels trying to make that argument before being executed though.

 

[lawpoke87]

No lawpoke, if he wins it will be because he was not thrown in jail after an attempted coup by a jury filled with his accomplices, then he was allowed to run in the Republican Party primaries against a person he tried to have lynched, and he received millions of votes from gullible Republicans in those primaries and then received millions of votes from gullible Republicans in the general election.

You can not blame people who have never voted for him for him being elected and simultaneously ignore those who overlooked his every single flaw and still cast a vote for him.

That would be like blaming everyone in Weimar Germany except the Nazis for Hitler’s rise to power. “If more people had just voted against him he wouldn’t have won” is a terrible argument because it shirks personal responsibility. I can certainly imagine a Goebels trying to make that argument before being executed though.

lol. No. It’s because Dems had a coup and nominated an awful candidate. Because the Dems hid Biden’s mental condition until they were forced to put him on display. Because they selected a candidate who bombed the only time she ran for national office. If Harris isn’t elected it’s because Dems didn’t vote for her. Plain and simple. They show up and vote for her like they supported Biden and she is the next President of the United States. Will they vote for an unlikeable slow witted person because they have a D in front of their name? I’m still betting yes. If the Dems were honest about Biden and had an open primary we wouldn’t be in this position. Harris is the result of their dishonesty.