2024 Election prediction/discussion

[TU1NNJ]

Two national polls out today. Emerson and TIPP. Both have race tied but both show some movement toward Trump. Harris had a huge rally with Beyoncé last night in Houston hoping to help Allred in the Senate against Cruz. Both campaigns are now focused on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I now expect Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Dems simply aren’t showing up to vote in this states for Harris. Dems are also having issues in Nevada but I can’t underestimate the Dem ground game there. They always seem to pull out national races.

Popular vote looks like an absolutely tossup ten days out.

If Trump wins NC it will be a surprise to me based on the GOP state candidates.

 

[lawpoke87]

If Trump wins NC it will be a surprise to me based on the GOP state candidates.

I had Harris winning NC two weeks ago for that very reason. I changed due to Pubs winning the early vote. Something they’ve never done. I’m assuming the Pubs will win Election Day voting as usual btw.

» 2024 General Election Early Vote – North Carolina UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu

 

[lawpoke87]

Several polls out this am contain good news for Harris. ABC national has her up 4. CBS has her up in all 3 crucial rust belt states. If accurate she would win the presidency.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

What it comes down to now is Pennsylvania. The toss up state with the most electoral votes will probably decide the election, and it might even be the most tightly contested.

 

[lawpoke87]

What it comes down to now is Pennsylvania. The toss up state with the most electoral votes will probably decide the election, and it might even be the most tightly contested.

Good call. I believe Harris needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump can win one of the three a likely be ok. That said….whoever wins Pennsylvania likely wins the other two as well. I suspect all three of those states will be very close.