then I will never have to make another decision for myself; Kamala, the Dems, and the government will tell me what I need.
2024 Election prediction/discussion
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
If this actually happens it will have been driven by women who Trump and his party's policies have managed to alienate at every turn.
Reading far too many stories out of conservative states where young pregnant women are dying from complications having been refused care because of fetal protection laws.
I have a high school kid in drama and choir. I think I would know the costs. But ok.
Are you extrapolating the Iowa poll showing Harris leading Trump in that state as an indicator of the national election? She very well may win, and big, but there are so many nuances in the swing states that would cause me pause on what may happen. Hopefully we will have a peaceful election and transition no matter who wins.
Yes. If Harris is up 3 in Iowa she will win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I also like her chances in North Carolina.
I think she will win NC because of the gubernatorial race influencing the presidential election. I have no idea about the other states. I just think the dynamics in this election are different than those in the past. We will know on Tuesday night, Wednesday or sometime before the inauguration 😁
Didn't mean that they were pricey, I meant that they require time commitments. It can be hard to participate in some of that when you aren't able to get home because mom or dad are working two jobs. Ask me how I know.
Seems like Trump may have had a much more involved relationship with Epstein than anyone yet realized....
www.thedailybeast.com
Also, is he practicing for the next time he sees Putin? Possibly your next president of the United States everyone.... Very distinguished. I'm sure Ronnie and Nancy Reagan would be proud.
Listen To The Jeffrey Epstein Tapes: ‘I Was Donald Trump’s Closest Friend’
Explosive tapes recorded by author Michael Wolff show Epstein claiming Trump liked to “f---” his friends’ wives and first slept with Melania on the Lolita Express.
Also, is he practicing for the next time he sees Putin? Possibly your next president of the United States everyone.... Very distinguished. I'm sure Ronnie and Nancy Reagan would be proud.
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You are looking at public polling. Where pollsters have a greater incentive to not be wrong than they do to be right. It skews results. Internal polling has the incentive to be right so the client comes back. It’s closer in Wisconsin than people on the left want to talk about. Trump was up six in Iowa and would have lost Wisconsin if Clinton had a cup of coffee there. Though early voting is showing a wider gender gap in Wisconsin than predicted, which favors Harris, she’s taken a bath on high school diploma males in blue collar jobs. If those men vote on Election Day in even just slightly above predicted numbers she will lose it.
Yeah, even if it is a wonky bad sample (which can happen even to Selzer), it is a very bad omen for Trump. If it is even close there it is bad news for him. And it would be shocking if Selzer is off by more than 8 points and Trump wins Iowa by 5+.
She said she saw significant movement from older women voting in large numbers for Harris.
Looks like Elon has switched sides and is now incentivizing votes for Kamala to the tune of $1000 per vote
Selzer has a long history of extremely accurate polling in Iowa. I find it hard to believe she would jeopardize her reputation with an intentional wrong poll. However if she’s off by more than 2-3 points I firmly believe based on her history it’s deliberate. We shall see.
Her forecast is based heavily on unexpectedly high early voter turnout for Harris amongst Protestant and non religious women in her own demographic in the populated areas of Iowa. I’m not sure if that translates over to how voters behave in the Catholic working class areas of the Pittsburgh suburbs and Pennslytucky rural areas. We shall see if there’s confirmation bias in her methods soon enough.
FWIW, Iowa always closes late for Republicans and she knows that. If she’s calling it by 3, then that means she would need to believe it’s 6 to 7 points, at least, in favor of Harris in early voting. And the numbers just don’t support that.
I’m not saying I know what is happening. I’m saying she couldn’t know. And if she says she knows, she either taken a huge risk or a huge bag, or both.
Today's Updates:
WI - Harris +1.0% (10)
MI - Harris +1.8% (15)
PA - Trump +0.1% (19)
NV - Trump +0.6% (6)
NC - Trump +1.2% (16)
GA - Trump +1.2% (16)
AZ - Trump +1.7% (11)
Popular Vote - Harris +1.1%
EC - Trump 287-251
WI - Harris +1.0% (10)
MI - Harris +1.8% (15)
PA - Trump +0.1% (19)
NV - Trump +0.6% (6)
NC - Trump +1.2% (16)
GA - Trump +1.2% (16)
AZ - Trump +1.7% (11)
Popular Vote - Harris +1.1%
EC - Trump 287-251
I decided to vote like a Democrat.
I voted early, . . . and often
I voted early, . . . and often
mine is only about 87%. I live in AZ where legals register and vote.
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