2024 Election prediction/discussion
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
Piece of advice for those following….pay attention to trends and not individual polls. Individual polls tend to be all over the place due to methodology, sampling, etc…. Trends across all polls over time are typically a fairly reliable example of where the race stands and is headed. Pay very close notice to the trend over the last ten days of the election. How are the undecideds breaking. Such will determine the victor.
Oh….and can we stop with the “stolen election of 2020” nonsense ?
Oh….and can we stop with the “stolen election of 2020” nonsense ?
If this was allowed, which it wasn't, then why didn't they just register inside the DMV. You don't even have the put the card in the mail. It gets registered then and there.
Can I just mention that realclearpolitics is a very right leaning polling aggregator.
Not saying they are wrong, but they give much more credence to some bogus polls than others do.
They include all national polling companies and give all equal weight so I wouldn’t characterize the aggregate as very right leaning. No doubt there are a few right leaning polls in there. There are also a few left leaning ones as well. It’s the largest aggregate I know of. As I said above, I pay more attention to trends than the actual polling numbers.
Just FYI. Their aggregate had Hillary up 3.3% on Election Day in 2016 and Biden up 7.1% in 2020. So I do disagree with your characterization of very right leaning. If anything they’ve leaned slightly left the last two elections. There has been a “hidden” Trump vote in both 2016 and 2020 which the polling missed. Have they adjusted the internals in 2024 to accurately adjust for the Trump vote ?
A little deeper dive into real clear. Their final projection in 2020 was Biden 319 Trump 219. In 2016 they had Clinton 272 Trump 266. Again…not seeing a conservative bias here
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I have been following their coverage for multiple cycles including this one. They are right leaning. Their in house opinion writers are all conservative. Their front page weighs heavily conservative, with most of their prime linked articles being Democratic hit pieces. All polls should not be equally weighted by the way. Moreover, they have weighted historical polls too high after Biden exited.
Finally, I do think there have been some revisions to polling methods this cycle. What's hard to believe though is that any national Democrat aside from Biden would be polling so far behind the Democratic swing state Senate Candidates who are all polling well ahead in their senate races. It doesn't jibe with Harris' 'likeability' statistics, which are not astronomical, but they're not Hillary bad.
I haven’t posted any articles or opinion pieces. Just aggregate poll numbers. Which have leaned left the last two presidential cycles. Based on the past two cycles, I’m not sure how anyone could claim those aggregate numbers are very right leaning. That statement isn’t supported by the actual numbers. There is zero data to support your assertion that the aggregate numbers have become right leaning for this cycle. The same polls are being used in the aggregate.
Pubs have some very poor Senate candidates. I’m not one bit surprised they are running significantly ahead of Harris. When Harris ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 the more the voters were exposed to her the worse her numbers became. Not saying that’s what is occurring here but the trend is similar. In any event, she needs some good news in the next week or two. Trump being Trump is likely to give her just that. Again…watch those trend lines.
Likeability in this polarized environment is reacted to extremely by a lot more voters. There is a lot more animus than there was even in 2016, after the Trump effect of the last 8 years. Relatively, I think they are Hillary bad in today's environment. Democrat's are Satan/Republicans are Satan has become part of the diatribe more than in 2016.
Hillary won popular vote by 2.1% in '16, that's not that far off of 3.3%.(RCP) 1.2% is definitely within the margin of error. Bush/Gore was off by 1.0%. Bush/Kerry was of by 5% And Biden/Trump was off by 2.8%. 2.8% is still not nearly a 5% difference like Bush/Kerry. I didn't include either of Obama's elections because they weren't even close in the polls or the actual vote.(Didn't seem fair to include them in the analysis.)
Bush was in the plus on comparison of one poll, and minus on the other. Yes the votes are both off in detriment of votes for Trump, but I still don't see it as wholly hidden votes for Trump not showing up, so much as just being within the margin of error for polls. The Bush/Kerry election was a far greater difference.
The aggregate is the best polling tool I’ve seen as it minimizing the effect of one or two “bad” polls.
Two polls from decent pollsters out this am.
Emerson Harris +1. Down from +2 last month
TIPP Harris +2. Down from +3 last month.
This remains a very close race. It does appear that Harris support continues to slowly erode. She will need to correct this decline over the next two weeks. I don’t see her winning the election without winning the popular vote by 2.5 - 3 points.
Barring something extraordinary the Pubs should control the Senate next session. They are now almost a lock to flip the seats in Montana and WVa. They also have the momentum in Ohio.
Dems remain the favorites in the House. Looks like split government regardless of who’s in the White House. Which is a good thing.
Trump can still do a lot of damage with a split government. Harris theoretically could too, but she's not a fascist who bends over for more capable fascists... so I'm less worried about her. The fact that we're even meandering around lines of conversation related to enemies within the country is very scary to me. I don't particularly want to be pulled out of my home and gunned down because I called Trump a cheeto faced a-hole.... and even if that's unlikely, the fact that I have it floating in the back of my mind because of Trump should be completely disqualifying. I don't know how Trump supporters sleep at night.
I think a lot of people are going to make a big mistake in November, which they will refuse to admit to for many years, and it's going to take something really bad happening again (like Covid) for them to rethink their American values.
Then again, there are so many things about Trump that should have been completely and egregiously disqualifying to this point that I have completely lost faith in most of the US electorate, including people on this board.
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I live in NC and the republican candidates for Governor and Lt Gov hurt Trump. I don’t support either of the major party Presidential candidates - is this really the best we can do? Based on what I saw in early voting today and what my wife saw yesterday it is a large turnout that I suspect is a backlash against the local republican gubernatorial candidate that may push the state to Harris.
In short, yes….this is apparently the best we can do. Sad state of affairs. The NC Republican Party really screwed up this election. Trump should be running a good 5 points ahead of his national percentage in NC in this cycle. Thanks to the state party he likely loses the state.
I’ve never seen a time when both liberals and conservatives truly fear the opposition party like they do today. Aston set forth how the left feels. The right believes the national Dems to be an oppressive party dead set on trampling on civil liberties and personal freedoms. They’ve seen them try to force a vaccine they know doesn’t work in their citizens. They seen them censor and even silence those who dare to question their decisions or policies. They fear they will be imprisoned for speaking out against the government.
Both sides are scared of one another. It’s an awful environment. We need a leader who will bring or at least try bring both sides together. Unfortunately that leader currently doesn’t exist.
Too bad Bush and Obama have already reached term limits. Either one would be better than the candidates we have running.
Primary reason this election is a tossup.
news.gallup.com
Majority of Americans Feel Worse Off Than Four Years Ago
The slight majority of Americans say they are worse off than four years ago, while their assessments of the U.S. economy are subpar and inflation remains a key concern.
news.gallup.com
That is what happens when most of your electorate doesn’t actually understand the driving forces behind the economy. (Not saying people haven’t been hurting, but they fundamentally misunderstand the root causes)Primary reason this election is a tossup.
Majority of Americans Feel Worse Off Than Four Years Ago
The slight majority of Americans say they are worse off than four years ago, while their assessments of the U.S. economy are subpar and inflation remains a key concern.
I’m not sure it’s a lack of understanding and not a lack of caring about why they’re struggling to pay the rent and put food on the table. Most Americans understood why things were bad under Jimmy Carter. They just didn’t care.
No, I'm not going to let you just draw up a strawman so you can create a false equivalency. The two sides are not two sides of the same coin, no matter what you tell yourself so you can sleep at night.
You are misconstruing the usefulness of the vaccine and we both know it.
No one on the left, and I mean no one, has threatened or even alluded to imprisoning anyone for speaking against the government, and by no means have either of the Democratic candidates even suggested something similar. That's a far cry from Trump's ACTUAL SUGGESTIONS.
Trump ACTUALLY tried to use violence to overthrow the government and insight a 'revolution' (his words), in a very similar manner (if not a more egregious manner) to Hitler's Beer Hall Putsch. He refuses to admit it, but he also refuses to acknowledge the fact that he did nothing to slow, prevent, or inhibit the violence and the violent overthrow of Congress.
Trump ACTUALLY tried to leverage US security interests for his own personal gain.
He ACTUALLY got convicted of felonies.
He ACTUALLY committed numerous adulterous acts with porn stars.
He ACTUALLY was found by a jury of his peers to have raped a woman.
He ACTUALLY enabled the dissolution of personal freedoms and civil liberties surrounding reproductive rights of men and women.
He ACTUALLY argued repeatedly, in court, that he should be allowed to be above the law.
He ACTUALLY lobbied for mass incarceration of a large number of peaceable immigrants.
He ACTUALLY buddied up to dictators and publicly admits his own admiration for them.
He ACTUALLY turned the military on peaceful protestors outside the Whitehouse.
He ACTUALLY praised Nazis, and continues to refuse to denounce people that are, to this day, flying Swastikas in and around his campaign events.
He ACTUALLY campaigns with a billionaire who owns media a platform filled with hateful rhetoric, engages in continuous forced propaganda and censorship.
The two sides are not the same.
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They want someone or something to blame. I can't believe that Trump doesn't sing his own rendition of "Trouble" from The Music Man to start every one of his rallies. He's playing on situation that American's are in to sell his snake oil.
There are really people to blame directly, but they're not in the USA.
What are you talking about ? I simply explained why the right fears the left.
1). At the time the Biden Admin sought to enforce the requirement that you must be vaccinated to have a job the vaccine didn’t prevent Covid. That is an undisputed fact. Which is all I talked about. An unconstitutional action to deprive citizens of their civil liberties which provided little to no public health benefit.
2). The censorship and silencing of those who dared to oppose policies or statements from the government. Do I believe the Dems would go to the next step and start involving law enforcement….no. Are there those out there who look at history and understand imprisonment of one’s political opponents often began with censoring their voices…yes.
Partisan zealots often aren’t the most logical people. Some might even look at poll aggregates which have been non partisan and quite accurate over the last several election cycles and call them out as “very right leaning” simply due to not liking the results
. I have many right wing friends. A number of them lack even the basic ability to logically reason through facts. I have several left wing friends who also struggle with the ability to objectively reason through life. Partisanship is a powerful force .In a side note, I just looked at my Oklahoma November 2024 ballot. My choices for President are quite limited. I’m not voting for Harris or Trump out of principle. Some dude name Chris Garrity looks like the only option. Let’s go Chris.
Getting back to some more polling out today. Atlas was the most accurate pollster in 2020. Obviously doesn’t mean they can repeat that performance in 2024. The numbers in PA and NC continue to surprise me. Race remains very close
That poll shows Trump at approximately +4 among women nationally which goes against most conventional long-term polling.
The vaccine did not prevent all strains of Covid. It did greatly inhibit the lethality of the virus and saved many lives, I'm sure that some of my family might have appreciated having the opportunity to get it if only they had lived the extra few months to get it.What are you talking about ? I simply explained why the right fears the left.
1). At the time the Biden Admin sought to enforce the requirement that you must be vaccinated to have a job the vaccine didn’t prevent Covid. That is an undisputed fact. Which is all I talked about. An unconstitutional action to deprive citizens of their civil liberties which provided little to no public health benefit.
2). The censorship and silencing of those who dared to oppose policies or statements from the government. Do I believe the Dems would go to the next step and start involving law enforcement….no. Are there those out there who look at history and understand imprisonment of one’s political opponents often began with censoring their voices…yes.
Partisan zealots often aren’t the most logical people. Some might even look at poll aggregates which have been non partisan and quite accurate over the last several election cycles and call them out as “very right leaning” simply due to not liking the results
In a side note, I just looked at my Oklahoma November 2024 ballot. My choices for President are quite limited. I’m not voting for Harris or Trump out of principle. Some dude name Chris Garrity looks like the only option. Let’s go Chris.
Saying that it "didn't work" is kind of like saying your seatbelt didn't work when you in got whiplash in a car wreck.
The people who whined the most about the mandate were the people who understood science the least. (They happened to be the same people trying to pass off Ivermectin and Hydroxycloroquine as legitimate cure-alls). The fact that we even needed a mandate in the first place should tell you how big of A-holes they were, and how wrong they were about the "sideffects" of the vaccine that they were so deathly afraid of. Again, similar to people who complained for years about being forced to wear helmets on motorcycles or seatbelts in vehicles. They probably complain about car seats too.
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1). Trump isn’t winning women period
2). That makes no sense. If Trump was up +4 in that poll then Harris had to be up with men. Neither of those will occur.
The link I posted was battleground state polling. Do you have a link to the national poll you’re referring too?
I said the vaccine wasn’t working AT THE TIME the Biden Admin sought to enforce their requirement that to keep your job you must take it. That is a correct statement. There are lots of measures Americans can take to reduce the risk of severe illness. Most don’t even involved getting a vaccination. If the Biden Admin goal was to detour serious illness there are other methods which don’t violate our constitutional rights. Bottom line is they mandated Americans get a vaccine which didn’t prevent the contraction or spread of the virus as a condition of keeping your job. Violation of one’s civil liberties at the highest level.
I agree it is a false equivalence.
But from a perception aspect there is some truth.
My statement wasn’t meant to imply the sides were equivalent. The purpose was to present why the extreme right fears the left and what they fear. To explain origins of their perception. Extremist are rarely the most logical people. The right is no exception.
So potential good news for the Dems this am. Rick Scott is running 4-5 points behind Trump in Florida. If the Dems can keep Florida relatively close then the Dems have a legitimate shot at taking that Senate seat.
Today's Updates:
PA - Harris +0.2%
MI - Harris +0.3%
WI - Tie
NV - Trump +0.2%
NC - Trump +0.8%
GA - Trump +1.5%
AZ - Trump +1.8%
EC - Trump 268-260 with the Tie state potentially determining the winner.
PA - Harris +0.2%
MI - Harris +0.3%
WI - Tie
NV - Trump +0.2%
NC - Trump +0.8%
GA - Trump +1.5%
AZ - Trump +1.8%
EC - Trump 268-260 with the Tie state potentially determining the winner.
I'm just beotching about my experience with the Covid vaccine. I took it only because I had two grandsons that were in the process of receiving bone marrow transplants and thought it was the price to pay to not check out of their and my daughters life. Yes, it or isolation from them was mandated by the medical staff.
It may have been beneficial to some, but I suffer from some of the side affects. Measured by audiologist and prior to and then post vaccine I went into the booth and did full hearing exams. In my previous profession being able to hear correctly was paramount and I monitored it. Measured three years and then five months prior to receiving the vaccine and first booster my hearing was stable and well above the normal threshold. Following the booster I began experiencing sever tinnitus and moderate hearing loss. I had a very mild case of Covid after the initial vaccine. Likely it reduced the effects, but significant hearing loss and ears that never stop ringing has been a helluva price to pay to reduce the effects. That vaccine was not without side effects.
I got tired but had no serious side effects.
That said, I am not seeking to turn this into a covid vaccine debate.
I agree that from a perception standpoint, there are hardened views among the dedicated party faithful per @lawpoke87 observation.
That said, I am not seeking to turn this into a covid vaccine debate.
I agree that from a perception standpoint, there are hardened views among the dedicated party faithful per @lawpoke87 observation.
Some good news for Harris in the WaPo battleground state polling.
Read an article today regarding national polling. It is not disputed that Trump is doing better than expected in national polls. What hasn’t been talked about is his gains are primarily in California, New York and Illinois. States he obviously won’t win. Thus, I’m not sure the existing logic that Harris needs to win the popular vote by in excess of 2 points to win the electoral college is valid. I feel the margin is much less. Still don’t believe she can win the electoral college and lose the popular vote but that possibility is a lot closer this cycle for the Dems than the last two elections.
Harris will win popular vote. Trump may edge out in Electoral College. If not, he will go to plan B to get there just as he's outlined.
Given his inability to maintain a clear line of thought, he needs to release his medical records. Not that that would affect his believers, but we should still know if he is healthy or a mental liability.
Given his inability to maintain a clear line of thought, he needs to release his medical records. Not that that would affect his believers, but we should still know if he is healthy or a mental liability.
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