2024 Election prediction/discussion
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
Piece of advice for those following….pay attention to trends and not individual polls. Individual polls tend to be all over the place due to methodology, sampling, etc…. Trends across all polls over time are typically a fairly reliable example of where the race stands and is headed. Pay very close notice to the trend over the last ten days of the election. How are the undecideds breaking. Such will determine the victor.
Oh….and can we stop with the “stolen election of 2020” nonsense ?
Oh….and can we stop with the “stolen election of 2020” nonsense ?
If this was allowed, which it wasn't, then why didn't they just register inside the DMV. You don't even have the put the card in the mail. It gets registered then and there.
Can I just mention that realclearpolitics is a very right leaning polling aggregator.
Not saying they are wrong, but they give much more credence to some bogus polls than others do.
They include all national polling companies and give all equal weight so I wouldn’t characterize the aggregate as very right leaning. No doubt there are a few right leaning polls in there. There are also a few left leaning ones as well. It’s the largest aggregate I know of. As I said above, I pay more attention to trends than the actual polling numbers.
Just FYI. Their aggregate had Hillary up 3.3% on Election Day in 2016 and Biden up 7.1% in 2020. So I do disagree with your characterization of very right leaning. If anything they’ve leaned slightly left the last two elections. There has been a “hidden” Trump vote in both 2016 and 2020 which the polling missed. Have they adjusted the internals in 2024 to accurately adjust for the Trump vote ?
A little deeper dive into real clear. Their final projection in 2020 was Biden 319 Trump 219. In 2016 they had Clinton 272 Trump 266. Again…not seeing a conservative bias here
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I have been following their coverage for multiple cycles including this one. They are right leaning. Their in house opinion writers are all conservative. Their front page weighs heavily conservative, with most of their prime linked articles being Democratic hit pieces. All polls should not be equally weighted by the way. Moreover, they have weighted historical polls too high after Biden exited.
Finally, I do think there have been some revisions to polling methods this cycle. What's hard to believe though is that any national Democrat aside from Biden would be polling so far behind the Democratic swing state Senate Candidates who are all polling well ahead in their senate races. It doesn't jibe with Harris' 'likeability' statistics, which are not astronomical, but they're not Hillary bad.
I haven’t posted any articles or opinion pieces. Just aggregate poll numbers. Which have leaned left the last two presidential cycles. Based on the past two cycles, I’m not sure how anyone could claim those aggregate numbers are very right leaning. That statement isn’t supported by the actual numbers. There is zero data to support your assertion that the aggregate numbers have become right leaning for this cycle. The same polls are being used in the aggregate.
Pubs have some very poor Senate candidates. I’m not one bit surprised they are running significantly ahead of Harris. When Harris ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 the more the voters were exposed to her the worse her numbers became. Not saying that’s what is occurring here but the trend is similar. In any event, she needs some good news in the next week or two. Trump being Trump is likely to give her just that. Again…watch those trend lines.
Likeability in this polarized environment is reacted to extremely by a lot more voters. There is a lot more animus than there was even in 2016, after the Trump effect of the last 8 years. Relatively, I think they are Hillary bad in today's environment. Democrat's are Satan/Republicans are Satan has become part of the diatribe more than in 2016.
Hillary won popular vote by 2.1% in '16, that's not that far off of 3.3%.(RCP) 1.2% is definitely within the margin of error. Bush/Gore was off by 1.0%. Bush/Kerry was of by 5% And Biden/Trump was off by 2.8%. 2.8% is still not nearly a 5% difference like Bush/Kerry. I didn't include either of Obama's elections because they weren't even close in the polls or the actual vote.(Didn't seem fair to include them in the analysis.)
Bush was in the plus on comparison of one poll, and minus on the other. Yes the votes are both off in detriment of votes for Trump, but I still don't see it as wholly hidden votes for Trump not showing up, so much as just being within the margin of error for polls. The Bush/Kerry election was a far greater difference.
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