2024 Election prediction/discussion

[lawpoke87]

Today's Updates:

PA - Harris +0.1%
NV - Tie
MI - Tie
WI - Trump +0.4%
NC - Trump +0.5%
GA - Trump +1.3%
AZ - Trump +1.5%

EC - Trump 272-266 if both ties swing to Harris

Early prediction. Trump wins PA but loses NC.

 

[lawpoke87]

Piece of advice for those following….pay attention to trends and not individual polls. Individual polls tend to be all over the place due to methodology, sampling, etc…. Trends across all polls over time are typically a fairly reliable example of where the race stands and is headed. Pay very close notice to the trend over the last ten days of the election. How are the undecideds breaking. Such will determine the victor.

Oh….and can we stop with the “stolen election of 2020” nonsense ?

 

[Gmoney4WW]

"You can't handle the truth"

Saw a reference to a clerical error affecting local and state issues not federal that was in the midst of being corrected before it was too late. Saw evidence that a voting device related to tabulations was stolen or missing. Nothing related to irregularities. Care to site this local news station mention of irregularities?

 

[Gmoney4WW]

they then send the card in

If this was allowed, which it wasn't, then why didn't they just register inside the DMV. You don't even have the put the card in the mail. It gets registered then and there.

 

[astonmartin708]

I believe it’s from realclearpolitics site. Those numbers are an aggregate of all state polling which has been released.

When I started this thread ten days ago I noted that the convention bump Harris received coming out of the convention had dissipated. She’s been in a slow decline now for the last 3-4 weeks. The good news for the Dems is I believe Trump has a hard ceiling. The bad news for the Dems is Harris isn’t a good candidate nor is she particularly likable.

Watch the polling over the next ten days. Also pay attention to early voting numbers. Can the Dems match their advantage over the Pubs they experienced in 2020? North Carolina looks to be a problem for the Pubs imo. Pennsylvania is a problem for the Dems. Still a tight race. Trump has some momentum but he also has that ceiling.

Can I just mention that realclearpolitics is a very right leaning polling aggregator.

Not saying they are wrong, but they give much more credence to some bogus polls than others do.

 

[lawpoke87]

Can I just mention that realclearpolitics is a very right leaning polling aggregator.

Not saying they are wrong, but they give much more credence to some bogus polls than others do.

They include all national polling companies and give all equal weight so I wouldn’t characterize the aggregate as very right leaning. No doubt there are a few right leaning polls in there. There are also a few left leaning ones as well. It’s the largest aggregate I know of. As I said above, I pay more attention to trends than the actual polling numbers.

Just FYI. Their aggregate had Hillary up 3.3% on Election Day in 2016 and Biden up 7.1% in 2020. So I do disagree with your characterization of very right leaning. If anything they’ve leaned slightly left the last two elections. There has been a “hidden” Trump vote in both 2016 and 2020 which the polling missed. Have they adjusted the internals in 2024 to accurately adjust for the Trump vote ?