Early prediction. Trump wins PA but loses NC.Today's Updates:
PA - Harris +0.1%
NV - Tie
MI - Tie
WI - Trump +0.4%
NC - Trump +0.5%
GA - Trump +1.3%
AZ - Trump +1.5%
EC - Trump 272-266 if both ties swing to Harris
Early prediction. Trump wins PA but loses NC.Today's Updates:
PA - Harris +0.1%
NV - Tie
MI - Tie
WI - Trump +0.4%
NC - Trump +0.5%
GA - Trump +1.3%
AZ - Trump +1.5%
EC - Trump 272-266 if both ties swing to Harris
"You can't handle the truth"
Saw a reference to a clerical error affecting local and state issues not federal that was in the midst of being corrected before it was too late. Saw evidence that a voting device related to tabulations was stolen or missing. Nothing related to irregularities. Care to site this local news station mention of irregularities?
If this was allowed, which it wasn't, then why didn't they just register inside the DMV. You don't even have the put the card in the mail. It gets registered then and there.they then send the card in
Can I just mention that realclearpolitics is a very right leaning polling aggregator.I believe it’s from realclearpolitics site. Those numbers are an aggregate of all state polling which has been released.
When I started this thread ten days ago I noted that the convention bump Harris received coming out of the convention had dissipated. She’s been in a slow decline now for the last 3-4 weeks. The good news for the Dems is I believe Trump has a hard ceiling. The bad news for the Dems is Harris isn’t a good candidate nor is she particularly likable.
Watch the polling over the next ten days. Also pay attention to early voting numbers. Can the Dems match their advantage over the Pubs they experienced in 2020? North Carolina looks to be a problem for the Pubs imo. Pennsylvania is a problem for the Dems. Still a tight race. Trump has some momentum but he also has that ceiling.
They include all national polling companies and give all equal weight so I wouldn’t characterize the aggregate as very right leaning. No doubt there are a few right leaning polls in there. There are also a few left leaning ones as well. It’s the largest aggregate I know of. As I said above, I pay more attention to trends than the actual polling numbers.Can I just mention that realclearpolitics is a very right leaning polling aggregator.
Not saying they are wrong, but they give much more credence to some bogus polls than others do.
I have been following their coverage for multiple cycles including this one. They are right leaning. Their in house opinion writers are all conservative. Their front page weighs heavily conservative, with most of their prime linked articles being Democratic hit pieces. All polls should not be equally weighted by the way. Moreover, they have weighted historical polls too high after Biden exited.They include all national polling companies and give all equal weight so I wouldn’t characterize the aggregate as very right leaning. No doubt there are a few right leaning polls in there. There are also a few left leaning ones as well. It’s the largest aggregate I know of. As I said above, I pay more attention to trends than the actual polling numbers.
Just FYI. Their aggregate had Hillary up 3.3% on Election Day in 2016 and Biden up 7.1% in 2020. So I do disagree with your characterization of very right leaning. If anything they’ve leaned slightly left the last two elections. There has been a “hidden” Trump vote in both 2016 and 2020 which the polling missed. Have they adjusted the internals in 2024 to accurately adjust for the Trump vote ?
A little deeper dive into real clear. Their final projection in 2020 was Biden 319 Trump 219. In 2016 they had Clinton 272 Trump 266. Again…not seeing a conservative bias here
I haven’t posted any articles or opinion pieces. Just aggregate poll numbers. Which have leaned left the last two presidential cycles. Based on the past two cycles, I’m not sure how anyone could claim those aggregate numbers are very right leaning. That statement isn’t supported by the actual numbers. There is zero data to support your assertion that the aggregate numbers have become right leaning for this cycle. The same polls are being used in the aggregate.I have been following their coverage for multiple cycles including this one. They are right leaning. Their in house opinion writers are all conservative. Their front page weighs heavily conservative, with most of their prime linked articles being Democratic hit pieces. All polls should not be equally weighted by the way. Moreover, they have weighted historical polls too high after Biden exited.
Finally, I do think there have been some revisions to polling methods this cycle. What's hard to believe though is that any national Democrat aside from Biden would be polling so far behind the Democratic swing state Senate Candidates who are all polling well ahead in their senate races. It doesn't jibe with Harris' 'likeability' statistics, which are not astronomical, but they're not Hillary bad.
Likeability in this polarized environment is reacted to extremely by a lot more voters. There is a lot more animus than there was even in 2016, after the Trump effect of the last 8 years. Relatively, I think they are Hillary bad in today's environment. Democrat's are Satan/Republicans are Satan has become part of the diatribe more than in 2016.It doesn't jibe with Harris' 'likeability' statistics, which are not astronomical, but they're not Hillary bad.
Hillary won popular vote by 2.1% in '16, that's not that far off of 3.3%.(RCP) 1.2% is definitely within the margin of error. Bush/Gore was off by 1.0%. Bush/Kerry was of by 5% And Biden/Trump was off by 2.8%. 2.8% is still not nearly a 5% difference like Bush/Kerry. I didn't include either of Obama's elections because they weren't even close in the polls or the actual vote.(Didn't seem fair to include them in the analysis.)They include all national polling companies and give all equal weight so I wouldn’t characterize the aggregate as very right leaning. No doubt there are a few right leaning polls in there. There are also a few left leaning ones as well. It’s the largest aggregate I know of. As I said above, I pay more attention to trends than the actual polling numbers.
Just FYI. Their aggregate had Hillary up 3.3% on Election Day in 2016 and Biden up 7.1% in 2020. So I do disagree with your characterization of very right leaning. If anything they’ve leaned slightly left the last two elections. There has been a “hidden” Trump vote in both 2016 and 2020 which the polling missed. Have they adjusted the internals in 2024 to accurately adjust for the Trump vote ?
A little deeper dive into real clear. Their final projection in 2020 was Biden 319 Trump 219. In 2016 they had Clinton 272 Trump 266. Again…not seeing a conservative bias here
The aggregate is the best polling tool I’ve seen as it minimizing the effect of one or two “bad” polls.Hillary won popular vote by 2.1% in '16, that's not that far off of 3.3%.(RCP) 1.2% is definitely within the margin of error. Bush/Gore was off by 1.0%. Bush/Kerry was of by 5% And Biden/Trump was off by 2.8%. 2.8% is still not nearly a 5% difference like Bush/Kerry. I didn't include either of Obama's elections because they weren't even close in the polls or the actual vote.(Didn't seem fair to include them in the analysis.)
Bush was in the plus on comparison of one poll, and minus on the other. Yes the votes are both off in detriment of votes for Trump, but I still don't see it as wholly hidden votes for Trump not showing up, so much as just being within the margin of error for polls. The Bush/Kerry election was a far greater difference.
Trump can still do a lot of damage with a split government. Harris theoretically could too, but she's not a fascist who bends over for more capable fascists... so I'm less worried about her. The fact that we're even meandering around lines of conversation related to enemies within the country is very scary to me. I don't particularly want to be pulled out of my home and gunned down because I called Trump a cheeto faced a-hole.... and even if that's unlikely, the fact that I have it floating in the back of my mind because of Trump should be completely disqualifying. I don't know how Trump supporters sleep at night.The aggregate is the best polling tool I’ve seen as it minimizing the effect of one or two “bad” polls.
Two polls from decent pollsters out this am.
Emerson Harris +1. Down from +2 last month
TIPP Harris +2. Down from +3 last month.
This remains a very close race. It does appear that Harris support continues to slowly erode. She will need to correct this decline over the next two weeks. I don’t see her winning the election without winning the popular vote by 2.5 - 3 points.
Barring something extraordinary the Pubs should control the Senate next session. They are now almost a lock to flip the seats in Montana and WVa. They also have the momentum in Ohio.
Dems remain the favorites in the House. Looks like split government regardless of who’s in the White House. Which is a good thing.
I believe it’s from realclearpolitics site. Those numbers are an aggregate of all state polling which has been released.
When I started this thread ten days ago I noted that the convention bump Harris received coming out of the convention had dissipated. She’s been in a slow decline now for the last 3-4 weeks. The good news for the Dems is I believe Trump has a hard ceiling. The bad news for the Dems is Harris isn’t a good candidate nor is she particularly likable.
Watch the polling over the next ten days. Also pay attention to early voting numbers. Can the Dems match their advantage over the Pubs they experienced in 2020? North Carolina looks to be a problem for the Pubs imo. Pennsylvania is a problem for the Dems. Still a tight race. Trump has some momentum but he also has that ceiling.
I live in NC and the republican candidates for Governor and Lt Gov hurt Trump. I don’t support either of the major party Presidential candidates - is this really the best we can do? Based on what I saw in early voting today and what my wife saw yesterday it is a large turnout that I suspect is a backlash against the local republican gubernatorial candidate that may push the state to Harris.Early prediction. Trump wins PA but loses NC.
In short, yes….this is apparently the best we can do. Sad state of affairs. The NC Republican Party really screwed up this election. Trump should be running a good 5 points ahead of his national percentage in NC in this cycle. Thanks to the state party he likely loses the state.I live in NC and the republican candidates for Governor and Lt Gov hurt Trump. I don’t support either of the major party Presidential candidates - is this really the best we can do? Based on what I saw in early voting today and what my wife saw yesterday it is a large turnout that I suspect is a backlash against the local republican gubernatorial candidate that may push the state to Harris.
I’ve never seen a time when both liberals and conservatives truly fear the opposition party like they do today. Aston set forth how the left feels. The right believes the national Dems to be an oppressive party dead set on trampling on civil liberties and personal freedoms. They’ve seen them try to force a vaccine they know doesn’t work in their citizens. They seen them censor and even silence those who dare to question their decisions or policies. They fear they will be imprisoned for speaking out against the government.Trump can still do a lot of damage with a split government. Harris theoretically could too, but she's not a fascist who bends over for more capable fascists... so I'm less worried about her. The fact that we're even meandering around lines of conversation related to enemies within the country is very scary to me. I don't particularly want to be pulled out of my home and gunned down because I called Trump a cheeto faced a-hole.... and even if that's unlikely, the fact that I have it floating in the back of my mind because of Trump should be completely disqualifying. I don't know how Trump supporters sleep at night.
I think a lot of people are going to make a big mistake in November, which they will refuse to admit to for many years, and it's going to take something really bad happening again (like Covid) for them to rethink their American values.
Then again, there are so many things about Trump that should have been completely and egregiously disqualifying to this point that I have completely lost faith in most of the US electorate, including people on this board.
That is what happens when most of your electorate doesn’t actually understand the driving forces behind the economy. (Not saying people haven’t been hurting, but they fundamentally misunderstand the root causes)Primary reason this election is a tossup.
Majority of Americans Feel Worse Off Than Four Years Ago
The slight majority of Americans say they are worse off than four years ago, while their assessments of the U.S. economy are subpar and inflation remains a key concern.news.gallup.com
I’m not sure it’s a lack of understanding and not a lack of caring about why they’re struggling to pay the rent and put food on the table. Most Americans understood why things were bad under Jimmy Carter. They just didn’t care.That is what happens when most of your electorate doesn’t actually understand the driving forces behind the economy. (Not saying people haven’t been hurting, but they fundamentally misunderstand the root causes)
No, I'm not going to let you just draw up a strawman so you can create a false equivalency. The two sides are not two sides of the same coin, no matter what you tell yourself so you can sleep at night.I’ve never seen a time when both liberals and conservatives truly fear the opposition party like they do today. Aston set forth how the left feels. The right believes the national Dems to be an oppressive party dead set on trampling on civil liberties and personal freedoms. They’ve seen them try to force a vaccine they know doesn’t work in their citizens. They seen them censor and even silence those who dare to question their decisions or policies. They fear they will be imprisoned for speaking out against the government.
Both sides are scared of one another. It’s an awful environment. We need a leader who will bring or at least try bring both sides together. Unfortunately that leader currently doesn’t exist.
Knowing why doesn't always affect your emotional response.I’m not sure it’s a lack of understanding and not a lack of caring about why they’re struggling to pay the rent and put food on the table. Most Americans understood why things were bad under Jimmy Carter. They just didn’t care.
They want someone or something to blame. I can't believe that Trump doesn't sing his own rendition of "Trouble" from The Music Man to start every one of his rallies. He's playing on situation that American's are in to sell his snake oil.I’m not sure it’s a lack of understanding and not a lack of caring about why they’re struggling to pay the rent and put food on the table. Most Americans understood why things were bad under Jimmy Carter. They just didn’t care.
What are you talking about ? I simply explained why the right fears the left.No, I'm not going to let you just draw up a strawman so you can create a false equivalency. The two sides are not two sides of the same coin, no matter what you tell yourself so you can sleep at night.
You are misconstruing the usefulness of the vaccine and we both know it.
No one on the left, and I mean no one, has threatened or even alluded to imprisoning anyone for speaking against the government, and by no means have either of the Democratic candidates even suggested something similar. That's a far cry from Trump's ACTUAL SUGGESTIONS.
Trump ACTUALLY tried to use violence to overthrow the government and insight a 'revolution' (his words), in a very similar manner (if not a more egregious manner) to Hitler's Beer Hall Putsch. He refuses to admit it, but he also refuses to acknowledge the fact that he did nothing to slow, prevent, or inhibit the violence and the violent overthrow of Congress.
Trump ACTUALLY tried to leverage US security interests for his own personal gain.
He ACTUALLY got convicted of felonies.
He ACTUALLY committed numerous adulterous acts with porn stars.
He ACTUALLY was found by a jury of his peers to have raped a woman.
He ACTUALLY enabled the dissolution of personal freedoms and civil liberties surrounding reproductive rights of men and women.
He ACTUALLY argued repeatedly, in court, that he should be allowed to be above the law.
He ACTUALLY lobbied for mass incarceration of a large number of peaceable immigrants.
He ACTUALLY buddied up to dictators and publicly admits his own admiration for them.
He ACTUALLY turned the military on peaceful protestors outside the Whitehouse.
He ACTUALLY praised Nazis, and continues to refuse to denounce people that are, to this day, flying Swastikas in and around his campaign events.
He ACTUALLY campaigns with a billionaire who owns media a platform filled with hateful rhetoric, engages in continuous forced propaganda and censorship.
The two sides are not the same.