I did. But the rules and landscapes and competition is changing daily if not hourly. But then I also started really looking at the contracts and how pay outs are valued ten years ago versus ten years from now.
Before, ESPN was all about finding and funding teams in major cable markets. They could leverage political pressure to make their networks available to the widest cable market and collect $1.50 to $4.00 a home per month whether or not anybody actually watched SMU or Tulane.
Now that’s irrelevant. People are streaming. So the drive is to tie up as much brand recognition and purchasing power as possible, not captive viewers. Traditional cable may be unsustainable for college sports before the grant of rights deals all expire. The big event playoff will be a ratings bonanza and the money will center there. But Ole Miss vs Savannah State? ESPN ain’t paying for that anymore.
That’s what made the AAC streaming contract huge. The money was low but the structure of the deal and the length was very forward thinking and protects little guys that might get left behind.
As ESPN becomes more like Netflix, the streaming value of OU and Texas is massive compared to schools like USC. So a pooled streaming deal plus guaranteed access to the post season made the SEC thing for OU worth it even if they win that conference once a decade. The loss of revenue potential being left out of that is just too risky.
On the other hand, OSU and KSU really have no place to go. OSU is in better shape because they have a relatively small fan base but they will buy just about anything with OSU on it. From the streaming subscription standpoint, they are even more valuable than schools with huge alumni bases in major cities with long traditions. OSU’s streaming value is probably greater than UCLA’s. But it’s not enough to move the needle as the two networks battle. The Fox networks are saying they don’t want them in a conference they control like PAC-12 and so the short term game of trying to keep the Big 12 together is their best play and just about the only thing left the Big 12 has going for it is the autonomy conference angle which can help with paying players. That’s all they’ve got left. UCF is so desperate for validation expect them to prematurely try to jump off for what I think will be a brief and financially catastrophic move to the Big 12 if things keep moving the direction they are going. But that assumes that the Big 12 actually wants to stay together and the vote they took to stay together for five more years wasn’t just pure theater while they all furiously try to lobby their way out. I think those that have streaming value (KU basketball) will have a safe place to land. Those that don’t will be forced to work out a fragment of a media deal. And I think that’s where we come in. The regional conference that includes us as a low cost/low pay out member once OSU and KSU figure out the party is over and they’ve wasted hundreds of millions of dollars over the years.
