Predictions after OU/Texas move...

hotterthanyourhusbandTU

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What does everyone think?

To me, there’s no way the “left over” Big XII schools have any desire to backfill. They will be looking to find “sanctuary” conferences.

Get ready for 4 Power Conferences with 16 teams each.

SEC - Will be done with OU/Texas

ACC - Will be done with Notre Dame and West Virginia (UCF is a dark horse)

B1G - Will focus on prestigious academic universities, especially AAU related. My assumption will be Iowa State and KU will move to the B1G. The other play would be to pluck two of these three PAC-12 schools (USC, Stanford, Cal)

PAC-12 - Assuming the B1G doesn’t steal from them, they will add 4 schools...
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State

Bottom Line - I think K-State is in big trouble.

Bonus Prediction - College football will not be associated with the NCAA in 5 years, and could fall into a “professional” organization. This could include a formal segregation of the 4 power conferences from the rest of college football. NIL changes everything.
 
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eastcane

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Big 12 might get picked clean by the Pac-12 and B10 and be no more. The pressure put on the other P-5 conferences by the SEC in taking in 2 of the remaining top 10 football programs is hard to underestimate.
 

Babe the Blue Ox

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What does everyone think?

To me, there’s no way the “left over” Big XII schools have any desire to backfill. They will be looking to find “sanctuary” conferences.

Get ready for 4 Power Conferences with 16 teams each.

SEC - Will be done with OU/Texas

ACC - Will be done with Notre Dame and West Virginia (UCF is a dark horse)

B1G - Will focus on prestigious academic universities, especially AAU related. My assumption will be Iowa State and KU will move to the B1G. The other play would be to pluck two of these three PAC-12 schools (USC, Stanford, Cal)

PAC-12 - Assuming the B1G doesn’t steal from them, they will add 4 schools...
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State

Bottom Line - I think K-State is in big trouble.

Bonus Prediction - College football will not be associated with the NCAA in 5 years, and could fall into a “professional” organization. This could include a formal segregation of the 4 power conferences from the rest of college football. NIL changes everything.

Kansas inability to field a competitive football team will hold them back.
 

mcane

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The hotter scenario is about the only one where TU comes out ahead. The AAC core plus K State still exists.

My feeling is that the Big XII will poach Memphis, UH, Cinncinatti and SMU. UCF gets plucked by the ACC. TU then stays with what is left of the old AAC - Tulane, ECU, USF, Navy and WSU(basketball only) - and moves to CUSA, new West division. Or, TU does what I hope and bolts sooner rather than later for the Mountain West, hopefully Tulane, Rice and/or UTEP follow. Or worst case, TU gets left behind period and drops to D II or again languishes as an independent suffering body bag games for bucks. At that point, I'm not sure I would want the program to continue.

I have zero hopes that the leftovers in the Big XII want TU. I think we are behind almost all possible candidates, including SMU, in the pecking order due to size and finances.

Don't overlook the NIL in this reorganization - OU and UT know that the payola in the SEC with ESPN eyeballs is better for recruiting.

The biggest loser is OSU - no clout whatsoever if not hooked at the hip to big brother. Not one "brand name" left in the Big XII (except KU in basketball, which doesn't count). OU basketball also a loser. I would expect OSU or OU to end Bedlam just as UT and A&M eliminated the Thanksgiving game. Fans a loser as well.
 
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TULSARISING

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The hotter scenario is about the only one where TU comes out ahead. The AAC core plus K State still exists.

My feeling is that the Big XII will poach Memphis, UH, Cinncinatti and SMU. UCF gets plucked by the ACC. TU then stays with what is left of the old AAC - Tulane, ECU, USF, Navy and WSU(basketball only) - and moves to CUSA, new West division. Or, TU does what I hope and bolts sooner rather than later for the Mountain West, hopefully Tulane, Rice and/or UTEP follow. Or worst case, TU gets left behind period and drops to D II or again languishes as an independent suffering body bag games for bucks. At that point, I'm not sure I would want the program to continue.

I have zero hopes that the leftovers in the Big XII want TU. I think we are behind almost all possible candidates, including SMU, in the pecking order due to size and finances.

Don't overlook the NIL in this reorganization - OU and UT know that the payola in the SEC with ESPN eyeballs is better for recruiting.

The biggest loser is OSU - no clout whatsoever if not hooked at the hip to big brother. Not one "brand name" left in the Big XII (except KU in basketball, which doesn't count). OU basketball also a loser. I would expect OSU or OU to end Bedlam just as UT and A&M eliminated the Thanksgiving game. Fans a loser as well.
If we have a great season and beat Oklahoma State , the door could open for TU to go to the Big 12, I personally think it would be a big mistake for OU and Texas to go to the SEC, they will become a middle of the pack team. They will never win the conference, they can beat an SEC team every now and then but not every week . PLUS does the SEC even want them ?
 

eastcane

I.T.S. Head Coach
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If we have a great season and beat Oklahoma State , the door could open for TU to go to the Big 12, I personally think it would be a big mistake for OU and Texas to go to the SEC, they will become a middle of the pack team. They will never win the conference, they can beat an SEC team every now and then but not every week . PLUS does the SEC even want them ?
They gone!
 

goldfan83

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Aug 19, 2005
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What does everyone think?

To me, there’s no way the “left over” Big XII schools have any desire to backfill. They will be looking to find “sanctuary” conferences.

Get ready for 4 Power Conferences with 16 teams each.

SEC - Will be done with OU/Texas

ACC - Will be done with Notre Dame and West Virginia (UCF is a dark horse)

B1G - Will focus on prestigious academic universities, especially AAU related. My assumption will be Iowa State and KU will move to the B1G. The other play would be to pluck two of these three PAC-12 schools (USC, Stanford, Cal)

PAC-12 - Assuming the B1G doesn’t steal from them, they will add 4 schools...
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State

Bottom Line - I think K-State is in big trouble.

Bonus Prediction - College football will not be associated with the NCAA in 5 years, and could fall into a “professional” organization. This could include a formal segregation of the 4 power conferences from the rest of college football. NIL changes everything.
Stanford, Cal, and USC are not jumping to play a million miles to play the likes of Okie Pokie and Kansas State. UCLA and USC are some of the biggest rivalries in college. It is a real thing. Those are the best universities in the country. The B12 leftovers just aren't.

Maybe the Pac-12 adds some. But none of those schools are like those West Coast schools and Utah.

Your NIL prediction I think is true. College football is headed to professionalism which is going to be incredibly hard to reconcile since they supposedly exist on campus as students. It already was operating in a weird place with the coaches clearing millions even at institutions like Tulsa. If they break away, they will just be the minor leagues, really low admission standards barely any amounts of classes. It will just be a place where some professional athletes take some classes.

I think the leftovers will more likely add a Houston, smu, cinci and UCF.

We are really screwed unless the B12 goes really big with 16 and we sneak in.
 

TU Sepp

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If OU and Texas go to the SEC, the AAC and Big 12 will be divided up according to how ESPN (AAC) and FOX Sports (Big 12) decide how they want the leagues to look. If ESPN throws enough $$$$ look for the ACC to add 4 or 5 teams from the Big 12. With OU and UT out of the picture the AAC would have a better/bigger national footprint than the Big 12 and that might make a difference when you look at viewing audiences. But the 2 leagues realignment will be up to ESPN and FOX Sports.
 

TULSARISING

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If OU and Texas go to the SEC, the AAC and Big 12 will be divided up according to how ESPN (AAC) and FOX Sports (Big 12) decide how they want the leagues to look. If ESPN throws enough $$$$ look for the ACC to add 4 or 5 teams from the Big 12. With OU and UT out of the picture the AAC would have a better/bigger national footprint than the Big 12 and that might make a difference when you look at viewing audiences. But the 2 leagues realignment will be up to ESPN and FOX Sports.
I would love for OSU and Iowa State to come to the AAC ( as long as Tulsa stays of course )
 

Tulsafanzz

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If the Big XII leftovers add 4 teams, I will predict Cincinnati, BYU, Colorado State & Houston. Memphis would be #5, UCF #6.
 

Tulsafanzz

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The hotter scenario is about the only one where TU comes out ahead. The AAC core plus K State still exists.

My feeling is that the Big XII will poach Memphis, UH, Cinncinatti and SMU. UCF gets plucked by the ACC. TU then stays with what is left of the old AAC - Tulane, ECU, USF, Navy and WSU(basketball only) - and moves to CUSA, new West division. Or, TU does what I hope and bolts sooner rather than later for the Mountain West, hopefully Tulane, Rice and/or UTEP follow. Or worst case, TU gets left behind period and drops to D II or again languishes as an independent suffering body bag games for bucks. At that point, I'm not sure I would want the program to continue.

I have zero hopes that the leftovers in the Big XII want TU. I think we are behind almost all possible candidates, including SMU, in the pecking order due to size and finances.

Don't overlook the NIL in this reorganization - OU and UT know that the payola in the SEC with ESPN eyeballs is better for recruiting.

The biggest loser is OSU - no clout whatsoever if not hooked at the hip to big brother. Not one "brand name" left in the Big XII (except KU in basketball, which doesn't count). OU basketball also a loser. I would expect OSU or OU to end Bedlam just as UT and A&M eliminated the Thanksgiving game. Fans a loser as well.

If your prediction is correct, the biggest loser is Tulsa. Losing our top 3 conference football rivals (SMU, Houston & Memphis) would be very bad news.
 

TU_BLA

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CBS Sports is now talking about the desirability of Tex Tech & Baylor going to AAC, creating a remake of the old Southwest Conf.
I'd be down with this. I was actually thinking Iowa State and OKState could come and we could have a remake of the original Missouri Valley with Memphis and Cincinnati along with us and Ok A&M.
 
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Oak775

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Just the discussion of schools wanting to join the AAC bodes well and gives the conference members a boost.

If the AAC will sit tight good things will come their way.
 
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HuffyCane

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I think it’s funny when people post about teams winning having anything to do with realignment. It’s about tv ratings and personal relationships. TU does surprisingly well at TV. We are behind the 8 ball with a brand new President but it should be OK in the end.

Agree that ESPN and FOX will play a role in where people go. I’ll be shocked if the PAC12 takes anyone and really shocked if it’s OSU. I’ve seen crazier things but I’d put their chances of going to the PAC12 down near us.
 

lawpoke87

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PAC12 is on athletic life support. I believe the Big10 and ACC will follow the SEC’s lead and go to 16. Don’t see any other options for the Pac12 if they want to stay somewhat relevant than go to 16 as well. They need to expand their markets into Texas. They won’t stand pat imo.
 

TU Sepp

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The 5 Big 12 schools that I would prefer to join the AAC are W. Virginia, Iowa St., Baylor, Texas Tech, and K-State...
This adds 4 different states to the conference footprint. If the AAC adds these schools look for the conference to pressure TU to increase their stadium capacity to around 45K...

I think Kansas will end up in the Big 10.

I don't really care where osu ends up...
 
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HuffyCane

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The PAC12 isn’t going to take two religious schools. Texas Tech adds no value. OSU moves the needle a little but the academic standing, USC/UCLA alumni views on Oklahoma generally, and inevitable faculty and student protests over doing business with a state with Oklahoma’s CRT issues and LGBTQ policies is not worth the squeeze. OSU and KSU are going to be left stranded and will eventually land in a new hybrid conference with a handful of existing AAC teams, mostly those with decent sized stadiums. It just seems to be inevitable. Still, a nice regional conference with good consistent mid range TV numbers can be carved out. This looks pretty dang good to me. OSU wouldn’t dream of giving up $10 to $20 million in revenue a year without being forced into it though. I think they very well may have to deal with that.

OSU
Tech
Baylor
SMU
TCU
KSU
Tulsa
Iowa State
Houston
Tulane
 

Babe the Blue Ox

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I think it’s funny when people post about teams winning having anything to do with realignment. It’s about tv ratings and personal relationships. TU does surprisingly well at TV. We are behind the 8 ball with a brand new President but it should be OK in the end.

Agree that ESPN and FOX will play a role in where people go. I’ll be shocked if the PAC12 takes anyone and really shocked if it’s OSU. I’ve seen crazier things but I’d put their chances of going to the PAC12 down near us.

Having an above average football program at the time of the AAC expansion is probably what helped get us the 12th spot.
 

HuffyCane

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Having an above average football program at the time of the AAC expansion is probably what helped get us the 12th spot.
Can you explain why SMU and the other teams we beat up on, particularly in the Olympic sports, got in before us then?
 

Oak775

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The PAC12 isn’t going to take two religious schools. Texas Tech adds no value. OSU moves the needle a little but the academic standing, USC/UCLA alumni views on Oklahoma generally, and inevitable faculty and student protests over doing business with a state with Oklahoma’s CRT issues and LGBTQ policies is not worth the squeeze. OSU and KSU are going to be left stranded and will eventually land in a new hybrid conference with a handful of existing AAC teams, mostly those with decent sized stadiums. It just seems to be inevitable. Still, a nice regional conference with good consistent mid range TV numbers can be carved out. This looks pretty dang good to me. OSU wouldn’t dream of giving up $10 to $20 million in revenue a year without being forced into it though. I think they very well may have to deal with that.

OSU
Tech
Baylor
SMU
TCU
KSU
Tulsa
Iowa State
Houston
Tulane
Not a bad lineup…..

Going from Stillwater to Pullman with the gymnastics team or the baseball team will burn money. Long term a west coast tie up doesn’t work because of financial, cultural and academic non alignment.

Your proposed lineup, aside from Houston and Dallas, are on the small side when it comes to TV markets. A plus is that this conference would have a place in the football playoffs. A fantastic basketball conference. I would like to see:

1. TU baseball revived.
2. Adding Wichita State as a non-football member.
 
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TU 1978

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The PAC12 isn’t going to take two religious schools. Texas Tech adds no value. OSU moves the needle a little but the academic standing, USC/UCLA alumni views on Oklahoma generally, and inevitable faculty and student protests over doing business with a state with Oklahoma’s CRT issues and LGBTQ policies is not worth the squeeze. OSU and KSU are going to be left stranded and will eventually land in a new hybrid conference with a handful of existing AAC teams, mostly those with decent sized stadiums. It just seems to be inevitable. Still, a nice regional conference with good consistent mid range TV numbers can be carved out. This looks pretty dang good to me. OSU wouldn’t dream of giving up $10 to $20 million in revenue a year without being forced into it though. I think they very well may have to deal with that.

OSU
Tech
Baylor
SMU
TCU
KSU
Tulsa
Iowa State
Houston
Tulane
If AAC targets more than 10, can’t we keep Memphis and UCF to get up to 12?
 

TU1NNJ

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If AAC targets more than 10, can’t we keep Memphis and UCF to get up to 12?
If it is AAC driven it will go to at least 16 maybe 18- current 11 football and a combination of TT, Baylor, OSU, TCU, ISU, KSU, WVU, Army and AF. If it is Big 12 leftovers driving the bus it will get interesting their 7 and 5-7 others.. Aresco better be on his game.
 
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Babe the Blue Ox

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Can you explain why SMU and the other teams we beat up on, particularly in the Olympic sports, got in before us then?

We weren’t competing against SMU for the 12th spot since they were already in.

Conference realignment is driven by football and it’s just fortunate that we were playing pretty well when the conference was looking to fill that final slot.

I don’t think winning Olympic sports moved the needle at all.

Speaking of Olympic sports, what’s wrong with USA Basketball. They looked lost against the French today.
 

loca2874

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We weren’t competing against SMU for the 12th spot since they were already in.

Conference realignment is driven by football and it’s just fortunate that we were playing pretty well when the conference was looking to fill that final slot.

I don’t think winning Olympic sports moved the needle at all.

Speaking of Olympic sports, what’s wrong with USA Basketball. They looked lost against the French today.
They are 💩
 

chito_and_leon

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If it is AAC driven it will go to at least 16 maybe 18- current 11 football and a combination of TT, Baylor, OSU, TCU, ISU, KSU, WVU, Army and AF. If it is Big 12 leftovers driving the bus it will get interesting their 7 and 5-7 others.. Aresco better be on his game.
I figured we'd find out piecemeal over the next couple years how the new owners at 11th and Harvard felt about athletics and the role it played in their post-modern, university as social change agent model. I did not expect the $hit or get off the pot moment to come so soon... Someone was definitely looking over us to have this not happen 9 months ago, can you imagine Terminator Levitt as our face in realignment negotiations?
 

TulsaFanForever

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Some of the articles are saying that the AAC is going to get aggressive in recruiting the leftover teams because they feel like they have an advantage with their ESPN relationship. ESPN could push fox out of college football if the big 12 goes away. I think it was The Athletic that was saying espn could make a big offer to make it worth it for the teams to move to the AAC. It sounds too good to be true but at least there is a sliver of hope of some positive change as a result of this mix up. OSU vs Tulsa as a conference game would be awesome.
 
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HuffyCane

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There’s no incentive for an autonomy conference member to move to a non-autonomy conference. The AAC isn’t going to raid anything. UCF is dreaming if they think the new Little 12 pays out more than the AAC. The best they will get from such a move would be a guaranteed playoff spot. Assuming the rules don’t change. Which they will.
 

aTUfan

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We weren’t competing against SMU for the 12th spot since they were already in.

Conference realignment is driven by football and it’s just fortunate that we were playing pretty well when the conference was looking to fill that final slot.

I don’t think winning Olympic sports moved the needle at all.

Speaking of Olympic sports, what’s wrong with USA Basketball. They looked lost against the French today.
we are better than smu.
 

Tulsafanzz

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After reading a lot the last few days, I think the remaining Big 8 teams won’t be invited anywhere. West Virginia to the ACC is the best chance for any of them.

Unfortunately, I consider this bad for Tulsa. I see the Big XII leftovers inviting BYU, Cincinnati, Houston & either Memphis or Colorado State. I hope they don’t try to go to 16.

If OSU fans are representative of their administration, there’s a zero percent chance Tulsa would be invited. I didn’t find one OSU fan who likes TU. One OSU poster even had a proposed expansion that included Temple & East Carolina, but not TU!

Still hoping OSU gets an invite somewhere (for our benefit), but it’s not looking likely, in my opinion.
 

mcane

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I still think TU's only viable option will be the MWC. If the MWC won't take TU, then its back to CUSA, along with Tulane and ECU, maybe Temple and USF.

I certainly hope the AAC has the power to poach the Big XII leftovers, but I doubt it.
 

BNSports

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Big 12 is toast. No way they can make the league better than a G5 level conference even by adding Cincinnati, UH, UCF, USF, etc.

OSU and ISU are making a play for the Big 10.

WVU will be angling for the ACC (if the ACC wants them).

KU also likely angling for the Big 10 but football will hurt their chances (although they do have Rutgers, so anything's possible).

Pac 12 doesn't seem interested in expanding. They're all about maintaining the idea of being The Ivy League of the West. KSU, BU, TCU and TTU don't really fit with USC, UCLA, Stanford, etc.

AAC has already indicated they will be looking to poach the remaining Big 12 teams. Wouldn't surprise me if this is an attractive landing spot for BU and TTU with the natural Texas rivalries.

Not sure what to make of TCU and KSU's options.

I actually think we end up stronger in the end. Especially if we get 2-4 Big 12 teams. The only thing that could hurt us badly is Jay Bilas' insane idea of the SEC and ACC merging which would ultimately lead to 2 power conferences and all of the G5 schools essentially being forced out of the FBS.

cb
 

goldenhurricane2

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There’s no incentive for an autonomy conference member to move to a non-autonomy conference. The AAC isn’t going to raid anything. UCF is dreaming if they think the new Little 12 pays out more than the AAC. The best they will get from such a move would be a guaranteed playoff spot. Assuming the rules don’t change. Which they will.

I thought you said something somewhat opposite of this the other day.
 

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