So I did some calculations. I ran 50 simulations using NCAA 14 against Michigan state. Then I took that data an piled it into Farmers almanac algorithms for fall 2019. After reviewing the data it was obvious a few changes were necessary (just small changes like bumping up player ratings to 99 and change difficulty to easy).
I was able to come to the conclusion that we have a 50% chance to win, with a +/- 40% error for accuracy.
I was able to come to the conclusion that we have a 50% chance to win, with a +/- 40% error for accuracy.