Inflation and a recession are now here :(
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
Damn…
www.cnbc.com
Inflation surges 7.5% on an annual basis, even more than expected and highest since 1982
The consumer price index was expected to increase 7.2% from a year ago, according to a Dow Jones economist survey.
Probably need a plan boys and girls
www.cnbc.com
Wholesale prices rise 1% in January, up near-record 9.7% over the past year
The producer price index was expected to rise 0.5% in January, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
I think if we can get to 3% yoy without having a full blown recession I would be happy.
Uh… yes… it’s literally a fundamental idea of macroeconomics.
From 2020’: https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2020/january/what-is-phillips-curve-why-flattened
From 2021:
Is the Phillips Curve Back? When Should We Start to Worry About Inflation? - Niskanen Center
Are we in for runaway inflation unless we slam on the brakes and send unemployment soaring again? You might think so from the headlines inspired by recent CPI reports, but the answer is “no,” or at least, “no time soon.”
www.niskanencenter.org
The inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation has become muted since the fed began implementing policies that severely combatted excessive inflation (meaning since the 80’s) but it’s still a basic concept that high market competition for labor means increases in wages and drives inflation. It’s not the only reason for what we’re seeing today… but it’s a component. Hiring people has certainly become difficult.
People working creates inflation is a simplistic statement from someone who either doesn’t understand basic economics or is trying to spin this situation. Too few people working creates inflation. More jobs (demand) than workers (supply). The exodus of people from the workforce and them failing to return in sufficient numbers to satisfy demand is the correct answer fwiw. Unfortunately, wages are lagging far behind inflation.
A) Some people over 65 do still work.
B) 230K extra people dying isn't a drop in the bucket when it comes to the market.
Where do you think these people have gone? It's not like they can all just suddenly afford not to work? We haven't seen an associated 1.X million increase in food stamps or something have we?
No clue where they have gone. I do know our expenditures for food stamps in 2021 was almost double that of 2019 with a 25 % further increase in 2022. Assume some of your answer lies within those number.
As I said above, employment doesn’t cause inflation. We have employment in times of deflation. A shortage of workers causes inflation and a 2 million drop in workers over two years will do just that.
Full employment causes inflation because it means a lack of available employees to hire. It was the entire argument for Trump’s administration driving up employment to increase sluggish wage growth.
Pelosi did not say “full employment”. She said “the fact that people have jobs cause inflation” which obviously isn’t accurate.
The judge is the one making things difficult, but sure. It’s hard to gauge the societal impact of 1 ton of natural gas emmissions from US production when you’re not looking at the fact that there’s a good chance that 1 ton which normally would have been used won’t be available to burn in Germany in 6 months.
Societal impact…Ugg, this again. As long as the likes of China and India continue to increase emissions the societal impact of 1 ton is practically zero. Biden’s attempt to limit O&G production during a time of runaway inflation is brilliant economic strategy. We should be doing the opposite. Which is obvious to everyone but our President
You didn’t even understand that I was agreeing with you. If you’re trading one Ton of gas produced in the US for one ton of gas NOT produced by Russia then the economic (and societal) impact is the same. If you’re producing excess quantities on top of what was economically necessary or fiscally possible to produce through other means then you might have a problem.
Have fun with Putin’s chosen boy back in office with your attitudes.
From the looks of things Putin’s chosen boy is currently in office. He has literally gotten everything he’s wanted either from this administration or during its first year.
You’re societal argument is far too short sighted. As I’ve said many times, as long as other large countries keep burning fossil fuels at increasing rates then all Biden’s restrictions due is add to inflation and make it harder for Americans to provide food and shelter to their families. It’s a disgraceful policy given current economic conditions.
Ask Trump’s own strategy advisor on Russia which president has actually done anything about it. Trump was prepared to completely defund NATO, and he was keeping weapons out of Ukrainian hands for his own reelection.
You have the knowledge on the energy economy of a gnat. Also you have zero vision into where our society could go. It just reminds me of horse farm owner whining about the advent of cars.
Aston,
I’ve always considered us friends despite our political differences. Your last comment is uncalled for. Especially coming from a fellow TU grad who’ve I’ve offered my assistance in the past.
Your frustration should be with your flailing President….not me.
My frustration is with people that don’t seem to understand the fact that there are complexities at play that we won’t know for decades (like the 1960’s missiles in Turkey). This isn’t in reference to you Lawpoke. I’m not saying that Biden is an all time great president, but the fact is that he’s dealing with economic and geopolitical fallout from the previous administration and situations that have been boiling for 10 years now. He isn’t brash with the way he deals with things so we feel as though he’s flailing. When really; posturing like a Trump-type might just make things worse and either lead to a cataclysmic disaster or it would all be bluster and we would fold completely letting our allies be overrun.
Biden is not the only man in the room. These things are done with the assistance of important men. RFK was a key in resolving the Cuban Missile Crisis. JFK’s generals that were telling him to make a military stand were the imbeciles who were about to start a nuclear war.
I can tell you that I feel much more comfortable about the continued existence of Europe and the rest of the world under Biden (even dementia ridden Biden) than I do with Trump.
Kennedy acknowledged that we were still in a Cold War, but despite that he didn’t oppose advancing our Society domestically and in fact he supported it. We can win a Cold War and still have clean energy. In fact those two efforts might go hand in hand much like the space race did.
Biden doesn't always follow his advisors, even when it is advisable. (Afghanistan 🇦🇫) I don't know what his advisors are telling him right now, but I don't trust he is going with their advice.
This thread was originally about inflation. To that end, a Russian - Ukraine war will only act magnify the problem. To date, Biden has failed to enact any meaningful actions to help ease our rising inflation instead dismissing it as only transitory. This problem is only going to get worse.
We rarely know everything about any international situation. Yet, this certainly shouldn’t prevent us from commenting on the same. Hell….we still have WATU blaming Trump for the failure of Biden to listen to his military advisors in Afghanistan. A situation where we do have the facts.
On a side….say a prayer of those living in Ukraine. It’s going to be a rough few months and many innocent lives will likely be lost.
We rarely know everything about any international situation. Yet, this certainly shouldn’t prevent us from commenting on the same. Hell….we still have WATU blaming Trump for the failure of Biden to listen to his military advisors in Afghanistan. A situation where we do have the facts.
On a side….say a prayer of those living in Ukraine. It’s going to be a rough few months and many innocent lives will likely be lost.
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Most certainly. I think the Russians have been successful in influencing which leaders we, and other NATO allies have. It’s a severe disadvantage and why we need to re-align internally with what’s important to us. It’s also why we can’t give in to extremeism.
oil hit $105 a barrel. Putin is the new Czar of oil.
and thanks, Biden for killing the keystone pipline and us exploration so we are agsin dependant on. forrigh oil and prices.
and thanks, Biden for killing the keystone pipline and us exploration so we are agsin dependant on. forrigh oil and prices.
It's a marketplace, we're always going to dependent on that marketplace for price. We produce the most barrels/day of oil for any country. It still only accounts for 60% of our usage. I don't think we could produce 40% more, even if all regulations were taken down.
What we are is a net exporter of gas, and a net importer of oil. Our gas exports don't always match or exceed our imports of oil, but in general, we are energy independent. That doesn't mean we have control over the market to which we import and export. That would require, not energy independence, but a supply of gas ⛽ & oil that required no imports, and a full government ownership of all energy.
What you are implying/wanting,(whether you know it or not) is that independent and private oil companies don't sell at the market price.
