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Inflation and a recession are now here :(

Slightly deceptive graph considering it basically starts in Feb 2020.

I wonder if you broke the share of the aggregate into its component commodities, which would show the most significant increases and which have remained someone steady?

Oil is going to be a huge factor in that chart. It was essentially worthless by March 2020…. Now it’s probably overvalued.
 
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Which essentially means in Wyoming, NM, and Alaska. What about everywhere else?

The bigger problem is companies like Oxy saying they’re not interested in increasing exploration. We have fewer rigs now than we did pre covid, which had fewer rigs than the last time we were near $100/bbl. (probably half as many)

The problem is that the Russians (along with OPEC) were allowed to were allowed to bankrupt our oil companies with no repercussions.
 
No clue there. In a crisis, I’m not sure why one would differentiate between public and private. We’re going to need to up production asap and likely continue for the foreseeable future. Drill wherever yields the best results ?
 
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No clue there. In a crisis, I’m not sure why one would differentiate between public and private. We’re going to need to up production asap and likely continue for the foreseeable future. Drill wherever yields the best results ?
The Russian oil will go somewhere eventually (probably China at a discount). It will just take a while for the market to rebalance
 
Maybe. Do we feel comfortable being at the mercy of Russia or OPEC? We’re now seeing the dangers of being energy dependent on other countries….especially in Europe. Energy is a national security issue. Saudi certainly isn’t rushing to fill any void .
 
Maybe. Do we feel comfortable being at the mercy of Russia or OPEC? We’re now seeing the dangers of being energy dependent on other countries….especially in Europe. Energy is a national security issue. Saudi certainly isn’t rushing to fill any void .
No. Hence why we should make every effort to stop using the commodities that they control.
 
No. Hence why we should make every effort to stop using the commodities that they control.
…and until that day arrives it would be wise to produce that commodity yourself rather than relying on the same to unfriendly parties. The desire to buy a commodity rather than produce it yourself is one of the dumbest argument the left makes.
 
…and until that day arrives it would be wise to produce that commodity yourself rather than relying on the same to unfriendly parties. The desire to buy a commodity rather than produce it yourself is one of the dumbest argument the left makes.
The problem is it’s not economically viable to produce it ourselves vs. buying it. The marketplace is the issue, not the commodity itself. And if we start producing it all ourselves, it will just make other producers find new markets to use it which will perpetuate global warming. You have to have a logical balance that averts some risk, but doesn’t cut us out of the market completely, so that as we build non- fossil fuel energy dependencies, we’re not producing an excessive amount of fossil fuels that will end up being burned.

It’s a balancing act. If we’re not comfortable buying from Russia, and OPEC isn’t helping, we might target Venezuela to help them shed their Russian yoke they’re under and up their production back to 2014 levels. In fact we should definitely look at sponsoring a coup there anyway, but this is just an extra reason.
 
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You want to suppress US oil production which results in our energy dependency on unfriendly countries due to an idea that energy independence might result in some countries burning more petroleum? Surely that isn’t a serious opinion?
 
You want to suppress US oil production which results in our energy dependency on unfriendly countries due to an idea that energy independence might result in some countries burning more petroleum? Surely that isn’t a serious opinion?
I don’t want to suppress our oil production. The market does that for me as do US petroleum companies’ balance sheets.

There is no reason that US firms aren’t producing right now other than the lack of investment in them… and that’s market based. They have debt laiden balance sheets and they want to use this price environment to pay down that debt rather than incurring more. It’s the difference between having capitalist energy industry and nationalized energy industry. The oil companies don’t give a damn what would be good for America. They just care about their bottom line. Which is fair.
 
Suppressing has many layers including added regulatory costs and uncertainty….or you can just flat out stop it. Let’s not pretend Biden campaigned on and has acted to suppress domestic oil and gas production.


 
Suppressing has many layers including added regulatory costs and uncertainty….or you can just flat out stop it. Let’s not pretend Biden campaigned on and has acted to suppress domestic oil and gas production.


Seems like that’s the judge’s problem, not Biden’s. No offense but I wouldn’t expect to get a very objective ruling on a federal O&G case from a Trump appointed Judge in Lake Charles Louisiana.

The issue is that the judge tried to prevent the government from accounting for societal effects in their leasing, which should be a fair thing to do, in the same way they should be able to prevent a well being drilled right next to an elementary school. (Which they do all the time)

Even with problems in federal leasing, there is still a ton of lucrative state and fee acreage to drill, even in mostly BLM states like Wyoming. If someone wants to give me a small loan of a few million dollars, I can easily go get them profitable oil (at this price) without touching a federal lease. Lol.
 
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Seems like that’s the judge’s problem, not Biden’s.
Not at all. Judge didn’t halt new leases during a time of war. Biden wants more added costs to the industry as well as not guaranteeing restrictions won’t change once the lease is approved. (Suppression and uncertainty). The “societal” costs is a changing arbitrary number aimed at part in reducing production. Of course you know this.
 
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Not at all. Judge didn’t halt new leases during a time of war. Biden wants more added costs to the industry as well as not guaranteeing restrictions won’t change once the lease is approved. (Suppression and uncertainty). The “societal” costs is a changing arbitrary number aimed at part in reducing production. Of course you know this.
It's not aimed at reducing production. It's aimed at not allowing excess emissions on top of what would already be emitted through combustion.
 
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It's not aimed at reducing production. It's aimed at not allowing excess emissions on top of what would already be emitted through combustion.
I will always focus on the results of a policy rather than the aim. See cutting police funding
 
I will always focus on the results of a policy rather than the aim. See cutting police funding
The policy would have been fine had the judge allowed them. Especially considering the price environment. There would have been more than enough funds for a company to limit their carbon emissions
 
The policy would have been fine had the judge allowed them. Especially considering the price environment. There would have been more than enough funds for a company to limit their carbon emissions
Price environment. How long does it take from the signing of a lease to getting petroleum out of the ground in todays regulatory environment? In tomorrows regulatory environment…which is part of the problem.
 
Price environment. How long does it take from the signing of a lease to getting petroleum out of the ground in todays regulatory environment? In tomorrows regulatory environment…which is part of the problem.
Depends on how prepared the company is to drill. Could be as little as a month from Lease signing to Drilling Permit. Now, it's a bit longer on the Fed side to get a drilling permit, especially if there are environmental considerations (typically from the fish and wildlife department).

For a private or state lease it can literally take a month from lease date to spud date, and there are plenty of those out there. One problem is that companies don't want to drill on just one lease anymore. They want to do multi-mile laterals which span multiple leases. This usually runs them into problems as their drilling and spacing units (~1280 Acres) start to include fed minerals. This price environment should support one mile laterals (on 640 Acre Spacing) as opposed to two though. It's probably less efficient for the companies in terms of output per well which is why they're whining.

The fed problems certainly shouldn't be effecting states like Texas and Oklahoma which have comparatively few fed minerals though.
 
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In the meantime Biden’s prohibition on new leases on federal lands remain in place. Still no plans to assist in bringing much needed new production online. Crazy stuff.

What’s the rig count in Oklahoma? Until it starts to go up I don’t want to hear anything about federal leases.
 
What’s the rig count in Oklahoma? Until it starts to go up I don’t want to hear anything about federal leases.
Is there a reason we can’t address both issues? Biden should have reached out to the domestic producers weeks ago as well as opening federal lands back up. Gas at all time high and the only action thus far on behalf of the White House is to close new federal drilling. Insanity. Surely even you as one of the Dems biggest cheerleader must admit his lack of leadership.
 
Is there a reason we can’t address both issues? Biden should have reached out to the domestic producers weeks ago as well as opening federal lands back up. Gas at all time high and the only action thus far on behalf of the White House is to close new federal drilling. Insanity. Surely even you as one of the Dems biggest cheerleader must admit his lack of leadership.
Leadership can't make people contract oil rigs when they don't want to. Even if fed leases were enacted again it would only help 20 or so companies most of whom don't have the excess capital necessary to drill beyond what they can now anyway.

The problem isn't that the producers don't have enough incentive to drill, it's that investors were burned by the high decline rates of the unconventional plays already. US oil takes a higher ROR to be profitable than investors were led to believe in say 2012.
 
I’m generally not into government intervention in private industry but in extraordinary times it’s often warranted. Maybe time for the Admin to meet with the industry leaders and see if there’s anything the Fed’s can do to speed up production. After spending the last two years declaring war on the industry a change of tone is needed.
 
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CEO of Conoco Phillips says, “Any decision to do more drilling today won’t have an effect for a year”

CEO of Occidental Petroleum says, ‘producers are in dire situation, unable to ramp up output’

Notice that neither of them are talking about federal regulations or the XL pipeline. They’re talking about existing well decline in the Permian, supply chain shortages, labor shortages, and a fundamental need to provide investor returns.
Yeah this shortage is over Covid supply & demand and related labor shortages. It was exacerbated by other factors like the Permian situation, but it was difficulties caused by covid that was the root cause. Federal leasing might have been able to alleviate the situation a little bit if there had not been the ban a year ago. But it would only have staunched the bleeding for a short time, if it could even do that.

This has little to do with the federal bans.
 
I’m generally not into government intervention in private industry but in extraordinary times it’s often warranted. Maybe time for the Admin to meet with the industry leaders and see if there’s anything the Fed’s can do to speed up production. After spending the last two years declaring war on the industry a change of tone is needed.
As much as increasing supply, we should be endeavoring to temporarily unneccessary demand. It needs to be handled similar to how we would handle production during an actual war. Herbert Hoover was the man in charge of the US food administration, which existed from 1917-1920 in WWI and actually did a great job in that position. We probably need a US energy administration for the foreseeable future.

The United States Food Administration (1917–1920) was an independent Federal agency that controlled the production, distribution and conservation of food in the U.S. during the nation's participation in World War I. It was established to prevent monopolies and hoarding, and to maintain government control of foods through voluntary agreements and licensing. The agency was established by Executive Order 2679-Aof August 10, 1917, pursuant to the Food and Fuel Control Act, and was abolished by Executive Order 3320 on August 21, 1920. Herbert Hoover was appointed to serve as Food Administrator.[1]

Some things might be as simple as having national carpool days, or even local transportation holidays like the Netherlands did with their car-free Sundays during the 1950’s Sues crisis.

I know most people don’t want to make sacrifices, but if we actually want to seriously support our allies and ensure that our country succeeds long term, some communal sacrifices should probably be made. This has become a shadow war.
 
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Yeah this shortage is over Covid supply & demand and related labor shortages. It was exacerbated by other factors like the Permian situation, but it was difficulties caused by covid that was the root cause. Federal leasing might have been able to alleviate the situation a little bit if there had not been the ban a year ago. But it would only have staunched the bleeding for a short time, if it could even do that.

This has little to do with the federal bans.
Getting rid of the federal ban would certainly help production increases in Wyoming and New Mexico, both of which have capacity for significant increases, but the wells aren’t as profitable as they are elsewhere. It would be good to get rid of the ban, but the companies doing the drilling do need to ensure they’re being responsible in limiting excess emissions related to exploration and production. It’s a simple task, though it’s implementation is complicated.
 
all this might have been prevented, if our government ie the democrats, had been paying attention, instead of fixated on distroying trump.
 
all this might have been prevented, if our government ie the democrats, had been paying attention, instead of fixated on distroying trump.
Destroying Trump might have been unnecessary if he wasn't voted in by Republicans in the first place.
 
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