Inflation and a recession are now here :(

TUMe

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There has been a mini crash in Wall Street this week. Let's hope it stays mini.
 

astonmartin708

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I’ve been sounding the warning for months. Appears some are starting to listen. The question is will Joe continue to keep his head in the sand ?
We all knew inflation was going to be coming. Besides the 15 dollar minimum wage, what has Joe been saying that would have a significant inflationary effect?
 

lawpoke87

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We all knew inflation was going to be coming. Besides the 15 dollar minimum wage, what has Joe been saying that would have a significant inflationary effect?

Maybe the trillions and trillions we have been printing along with the prospect of increasing cost of energy, labor, etc. There always has been an “anticipated” component with inflation. Inflation has always hurt the working class and poor disproportionately.

 

astonmartin708

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Maybe the trillions and trillions we have been printing along with the prospect of increasing cost of energy, labor, etc. There always has been an “anticipated” component with inflation. Inflation has always hurt the working class and poor disproportionately.

If you have trouble with the stimulus that the government has put out, you would really hate to see what we would be seeing without it. It would likely be a full scale depression. Increasing the cost of labor is going to happen whether you like it or not. It’s a result of inflation. (At least people with house payments and interest rates made in the last few years will have a smaller payment proportionally). The energy industry change is inevitable. You can get on the train or not get on the train but it’s leaving the station no matter what.
 

lawpoke87

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It is what it is at this point. I thought the last stimulus was misdirected for the most part and far too expensive based the economic indicators at the time but the hay is in the barn. The key question is what actions do we now? Thus far all I’m seeing is more of the same policies which will continue to create upward price pressures. It’s a recipe for disaster if we continue this path and the poor and middle class are who will suffer the most.
 
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astonmartin708

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It is what it is at this point. I thought the last stimulus was misdirected for the most part and far too expensive based the economic indicators at the time but the hay is in the barn. The key question is what actions do we now? Thus far all I’m seeing is more of the same policies which will continue to create upward price pressures. It’s a recipe for disaster if we continue this path and the poor and middle class are who will suffer the most.
They will start easing interest rates soon. That should put some downward pressure on it.
 

aTUfan

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la la land
for a family in need, how much did the relief really help, and
for a family not in need, was it necessary
 

lawpoke87

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Sorry I honestly meant to write increasing*

With $15T and counting debt coming due in the next 5 years any significant increase in interest rates will be problematic for economy and future borrowing. I don’t see significantly rising rates as a viable alternative. We’re not in a good place. The only alternative I see is to stop it greatly reduce these spending programs.

Other ideas ?
 
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astonmartin708

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With $15T and counting debt coming due in the next 5 years any significant increase in interest rates will be problematic for economy and future borrowing. I don’t see significantly rising rates as a viable alternative. We’re not in a good place. The only alternative I see is to stop it greatly reduce these spending programs.

Other ideas ideas?

Government spending hasn’t been what’s been driving inflation though. It’s been supply chain shortages and increasing commodity prices.

The accepted way to combat inflation since the stagflation Reagan era has been raising interest rates. My advice is : get whatever you intend to with credit (house, car, etc...) now while rates are low. The problem is the supply of those items is small as well. But if feels like real property doesn’t ever go back to pre-inflation values even after more stock is available. It certainly didn’t happen after the Reagan Era.
 
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lawpoke87

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Government spending hasn’t been what’s been driving inflation though. It’s been supply chain shortages and increasing commodity prices.

The accepted way to combat inflation since the stagflation Reagan era has been raising interest rates. My advice is : get whatever you intend to with credit (house, car, etc...) now while rates are low. The problem is the supply of those items is small as well. But if feels like real property doesn’t ever go back to pre-inflation values even after more stock is available. It certainly didn’t happen after the Reagan Era.


We didn’t have 15T in debt coming due in the next five years under Reagan or at any time in our history. The past ways to combat inflation won’t have desirable effects imo. If you recall when Reagan first took office from Carter we had extremely high oil prices due to our dependence on foreign sources. Whatever new energy policy Biden finally decides upon, we must not go back to the days of foreign oil dependence.

Looks like you missed the cited article’s statement that the primary driving force behind the inflation we’re now seeing is the Fed’s printing of money. This policy needs to stop
 
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astonmartin708

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We didn’t have 15T in debt coming due in the next five years under Reagan or at any time in our history. The past ways to combat inflation won’t have desirable effects imo. If you recall when Reagan first took office from Carter we had extremely high oil prices due to our dependence on foreign sources. Whatever new energy policy Biden finally decides upon, we must not go back to the days of foreign oil dependence.

Looks like you missed the cited article’s statement that the primary driving force behind the inflation we’re now seeing is the Fed’s printing of money. This policy needs to stop
We will never go back to being dependent on foreign oil in our lifetime. In the 80’s we were still operating under the global ‘peak oil’ theory which assumed that energy demand would outrun supply. That’s not the case anymore. Hydraulic fracturing and renewable energy technology have displaced the idea that we will ever hit ‘peak oil’ if you want oil. Drillers in the US know where to get you oil.

The cited article is an op-Ed which just makes the blanket assertion that rising commodity prices are related to rising fed spending rather than a supply shortage. The supply shortages caused by the Entire world taking a few months off work are bound to increase prices as supply struggles to match demand. You’re right that we didn’t have 15T in debt under Reagan, but the output of the country wasn’t as high under him either nor was the wealth.
 

lawpoke87

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We will never go back to being dependent on foreign oil in our lifetime. In the 80’s we were still operating under the global ‘peak oil’ theory which assumed that energy demand would outrun supply. That’s not the case anymore. Hydraulic fracturing and renewable energy technology have displaced the idea that we will ever hit ‘peak oil’ if you want oil. Drillers in the US know where to get you oil.

The cited article is an op-Ed which just makes the blanket assertion that rising commodity prices are related to rising fed spending rather than a supply shortage. The supply shortages caused by the Entire world taking a few months off work are bound to increase prices as supply struggles to match demand. You’re right that we didn’t have 15T in debt under Reagan, but the output of the country wasn’t as high under him either nor was the wealth.

That $15T in debt coming due in the next 5 years represents 68% of our annual GDP. How can you not understand the consequences of higher interest rates ?

The inflation rate in Europe is currently running well below that in the US. Your worldly explanation of inflation in the US makes zero sense. Again...Fed printing $4T = inflation. The important question is do we continue down this inflationary path knowing the dire consequences which will result ?
 

astonmartin708

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That $15T in debt coming due in the next 5 years represents 68% of our annual GDP. How can you not understand the consequences of higher interest rates ?

The inflation rate in Europe is currently running well below that in the US. Your worldly explanation of inflation in the US makes zero sense. Again...Fed printing $4T = inflation. The important question is do we continue down this inflationary path knowing the dire consequences which will result ?
Europe also has a later timeline rolling out vaccines for the virus which suppressed demand. Europe has had to print significant amounts as well. It’s not like they had zero stimulus money going out.

I’m seeing somewhere around 2T in one package alone.
 

lawpoke87

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Europe also has a later timeline rolling out vaccines for the virus which suppressed demand. Europe has had to print significant amounts as well. It’s not like they had zero stimulus money going out.

I’m seeing somewhere around 2T in one package alone.

Projected 2021 inflation rate for the rest of the year in Europe is well below that of the US.

Gets us back to the logic of raising interest rates to combat our inflation with $15T in short term debt maturing over the next 60 months.
 
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rivalcane

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common thread between BHo, Biden, and the Democrat: they need for economics 101.
 

astonmartin708

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common thread between BHo, Biden, and the Democrat: they need for economics 101.
We can't all cut taxes just so we can increase the deficit with wars only to have nothing left over when global economic disaster occurs. That's an R special.
 
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astonmartin708

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The B has now weighed in :)

I can't find any reference anywhere in video, or in text, to any of that story having ever actually taken place except for the report from that one 'news?' source. Can you show me a more reputed source, or an actual quote?

My opinion right now is, Babylon Bee probably isn't a real new source. None of that quote reads like the linguistic style of Psaki. It does read like some of Trump's press secretaries though.

Here's what she did say regarding inflation...
 
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drboobay

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I am a psychologist and not an economist. But endless, increasing deficit spending seems like it must end in disaster.

We had an emergency and we had to spend to handle that emergency. But we are coming out of it. We don't need more stimulus IMO. But we may need more tax revenue, such as a bounce back in the top bracket rate, to narrow the deficit. That is my untrained, common sense view.

We see the supply chain constraints with our clients though, and I can see it in the rocketing valuation of my own home. Common sense that seems a big part of price rises.
 

astonmartin708

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giphy.gif

The B is satire.
 

aTUfan

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usually when the government tries to fix something? they just fxxx it up.

aca, war on poverty, housing,
 

watu05

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Trump’s Budget Deal Shows Deficits Don’t Matter Anymore


Title of the article is based on a quote by Dick Cheney.

I am am in the deficits matter camp, but more important is how the debt is used. Unnecessary wars and tax breaks for the wealthy are a waste, while real investments in infrastructure, R&D, and education create more national wealth. Unfortunately the already wealthy prefer the former and thanks to Citizens United and others, they can drown out that message from behind a curtain.
 

lawpoke87

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Tax policy should have two goals. To raise tax revenue and to encourage economic expansion and growth. Those two concepts are often related. If one examines federal tax receipts they will notice the greatest increases occurred during economic expansion.

So....I have no issues with higher personal effective tax rates for high income individuals. I do take exception to raising tax rates which discourage the investment of at risk capital. Especially when said rates place the US at a competitive disadvantage. Raise rates but do so in an intelligent manner which continues to encourage capital investment.

Not sold of government R&D. We don’t spend a majority of that money in areas which benefit economic growth. If growth is our goal we would be better off with tax policies which reward private sector R&D....especially considering we compete in a global market.
 

astonmartin708

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Tax policy should have two goals. To raise tax revenue and to encourage economic expansion and growth. Those two concepts are often related. If one examines federal tax receipts they will notice the greatest increases occurred during economic expansion.

So....I have no issues with higher personal effective tax rates for high income individuals. I do take exception to raising tax rates which discourage the investment of at risk capital. Especially when said rates place the US at a competitive disadvantage. Raise rates but do so in an intelligent manner which continues to encourage capital investment.

Not sold of government R&D. We don’t spend a majority of that money in areas which benefit economic growth. If growth is our goal we would be better off with tax policies which reward private sector R&D....especially considering we compete in a global market.
Private sector R&D is essentially public sector R&D in the US. Firms fund research projects at Universities which are also typically funded by public $$$. There are few companies running what would be the modern equivalent of Bell Labs.
 

lawpoke87

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US producer price index jumps 6.6% in May year over year. The Admin and Fed better get their head out of the sand and acknowledge this fast approaching problem.
 
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aTUfan

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the dems follow through with their promise not to raise taxes on the middle class. but the mc is just paying more at the grocery store, gas pump. ... but not taxed.
 

Gmoney4WW

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the dems follow through with their promise not to raise taxes on the middle class. but the mc is just paying more at the grocery store, gas pump. ... but not taxed.
Actually, the higher prices are taxed.
 

lawpoke87

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More good news :(. Yet we continue to want to print money. 🤷‍♂️

 

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