Will We See a QB Change this Saturday?
- Thread starter goldenhurricane2
- Start date
Probably not. The best scenario is for the game to be competitive and this not be an issue.
I see that the spread is only 3 points which seems low, but there must be a reason as the oddsmakers are usually pretty close.
I see that the spread is only 3 points which seems low, but there must be a reason as the oddsmakers are usually pretty close.
You're probably right... someone mentioned it in another thread, but I'm afraid we've got another Cody Green on our hands.
I'd like to see skipper for more than a series... hell I'd even like to see Hefley at this point.
I'd like to see skipper for more than a series... hell I'd even like to see Hefley at this point.
Navy is very similar to New Mexico. Strong run defense, suspect passing defense. On offense they run the triple option. Both of those things caused problems for Tulsa and, unfortunately, it appears Navy does both of those things better than UNM. Navy is also almost always a more disciplined team than anyone else, is less penalized, and will probably have fewer turnovers.
We can't go into this game with the same game plan and assume it will have a different outcome.
If it appears early on that we can't run the ball as well as we need to and that President cannot consistently hit the mark, there has to be a change or we aren't playing to win. If we march out there with the same plan and the same pieces and start seeing the same result, I can see three options to explain why: 1) President is far and away the best and the preseason competition was a show, 2) the coaches think this year is a write-off so we are watching a development team, or 3) the coaching staff is clueless.
We can't go into this game with the same game plan and assume it will have a different outcome.
If it appears early on that we can't run the ball as well as we need to and that President cannot consistently hit the mark, there has to be a change or we aren't playing to win. If we march out there with the same plan and the same pieces and start seeing the same result, I can see three options to explain why: 1) President is far and away the best and the preseason competition was a show, 2) the coaches think this year is a write-off so we are watching a development team, or 3) the coaching staff is clueless.
We sit close to the offense bench, and the thing that I've noticed about Chad is that he seems to very rarely talk to his team mates when on the sideline. He usually just stands there alone waiting for his turn to go back in. There was a 3rd down play on Saturday where he got popped pretty good, came to the sideline in obvious pain and could barely get his helmet off. Yet no one said a word to him.
Skipper, on the other hand, seems to always be clowning around with his team mates on the sideline and may not be able to find his helmet quick enough if his number was ever to be called. I'd like to hope that "the guy" is somewhere on that sideline, I just haven't seen him yet.
He's thrown one INT all year. Have our issues really been all his problem?
Shouldn't this "best offensive line in the league" be able to block a little better for the tailbacks?
He's only started three games. What was Dane Evans' first season like? I think our expectations may be out of whack here.
Shouldn't this "best offensive line in the league" be able to block a little better for the tailbacks?
He's only started three games. What was Dane Evans' first season like? I think our expectations may be out of whack here.
The defense wasn't the issue against New Mexico and I suspect it will play fine against Navy. D only gave up 1 TD and held to 3 FGs. You tell me before the game that the D will limit New Mexico to 16 pts and I respond by saying TU will win by 20+.
IF TU can run the football like it normally does in that game, we aren't talking about the QB issues. Fact is the OL didn't move UNMs DL even a yard off the LOS on most plays and the lack of the bruising back to gain the 1 yd needed on 3rd and 4th and 2 or fewer to go is also telling. I have confidence in Brooks and Brewer to gain 1 or 2 yards on most plays, except in those situations when the D knows what is coming...and UNM stayed disciplined in that there was always an edge waiting for President if he kept the ball.
What worries me about the Navy game is our offense beat their defense by throwing the football a lot in that game last year. We didn't try to pound it down their throats like we did against every other team we played last year. IMO, Skipper needs to start this week and we need to come out slinging the football. Hobbs and Stewart will have a huge size advantage on the outside, Johnson is a great slot receiver and we can even use Brewer and Brooks on pass routes out of the backfield. It's a changeup Navy won't expect, nor do they have an film on him.
President does a decent job of protecting the football. He lacks the arm strength and accuracy to make the tight throws in situations that call for it. The INT last week was a perfect example. 3rd and 7 or so he has Hobbs on a slant and he makes a poor throw behind the receiver. Other WRs were wide open and he over threw them. Even some of his completions put the WRs in position where they can't get any YAC because the throw was too high or behind the receiver or delivered late.
Also, he only has 1 INT because he doesn't throw nearly as much as Dane did each game.
I don't want to dog on him too much because I think he's a good kid with some great talent. I just think his talent may be better used in a different way. There were many times over the past few weeks where our receivers have beat the coverage but he's not accurate enough to hit them.
As far as the o line comment above goes - it doesn't matter how great your o line is if you ONLY run the ball up the middle 80% of the time with two different players. In reality we should have easily beaten Toledo and New Mexico... we have no business losing to either one of those teams. Unfortunately I think better qb play would have won both games for us going away.
As far as the o line comment above goes - it doesn't matter how great your o line is if you ONLY run the ball up the middle 80% of the time with two different players. In reality we should have easily beaten Toledo and New Mexico... we have no business losing to either one of those teams. Unfortunately I think better qb play would have won both games for us going away.
Exactly. Teams are going to stack the box bigtime against us. Unfortunately, if Johnson hadn't dropped that wide open TD against New Mexico I think it could have been a different game....that pretty much set the tone. My guess is we're going to see president taking his shots downfield (as best he can) against navy and hope we hit some of them. Phil is a smart guy and I don't think he's stubborn. If it gets ugly Saturday my guess is Skipper will get his chance.
And I would have agreed with you. But if you look at the statistics our defense gives us plenty of reasons to be afraid. In the New Mexico game Tulsa's defense gave up:
25 first downs (New Mexico averaged 20 in their first three games)
360 Rushing Yards (averaged 204...)
446 net total offense (averaged 396...)
42:41 in time of possession (averaged 30 minutes...)
1 punt (averaged 5...)
New Mexico helped by fumbling the ball 3 times for 2 stops (recovered 1, 4 fumbles lost in their first three games), but otherwise the defense had two stops all day (one punt and one on downs). Before playing Tulsa, on average New Mexico's offense gives up the ball without a score 8 times per game (allowing for rounding: 2 failed 4th down pays, 5 punts, 1 turnover). Even with 3 fumbles, Tulsa only stopped them half as often as New Mexico's "average" opponent.
Go check the stats, I could easily be off here or there. But it isn't pretty.
http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/ranking_summary
And frankly, a low scoring control game was probably New Mexico's game plan. A shootout gives Tulsa a better chance to win, it's what we are known for. All of the above statistics point to a perfectly executed game plan designed to keep the ball and win a low scoring game. There are two counters to that, one is having an offense they can't stop (trading their field goals for our touchdowns) and the other is defensive stops.
While the Defense did keep them to 16 points and had several brilliant stands to hold them to field goals, the statistics underlying the score do not give me confidence heading into a game against Navy's offense.
We'll see. I still have faith in Montgomery. He's not sleeping well at night either like the rest of us.
I hope you were joking! Greene couldn't find an open receiver to save his life and while President certainly isn't great but he is by far the best option at this point. Our problem is our cotton soft defense and or DCoordinator. I still haven't made up my mind if the root of the problem is a lack of talent, poor coaching, or both.
I have to agree. We have to be the only school in America not in the Top 10 with a Parade All-American QB as a third stringer.
I trust Monty's evaluation. He has a proven track record with QB's and he has lot$$$$ of reasons to play the best available player.
I'm not joking... I REALLY hope we don't have that situation on our hands, but I'm just not impressed with President as a complete qb at this point. It's too early to throw him completely down to the Cody Green level, I was simply saying I'm worried that's the direction we're heading. We'll see what happens this weekend.
Don't get caught up with what kids did in high school. Just look at how many former AA's are riding the pine at OU.
Coaches also have egos and a personal investment in making it appear that they are the ones calling the shots, not the availability of talent dictating the decisions. Houston Nutt is a prime example of someone who refused to change offensive systems because of his ego and savior complex. He didnt want to win unless he was the reason they won. It didnt matter if his players had other skill sets. They were going to do it his way, win or lose. I am very concerned that we are seeing the beginning of this type of behavior. It may prove to be good judgment and very effective. We simply don't know. I just know he was brought here to make sure the University is well represented through winning a majority of the games on the schedule, winning the games that are winnable, and making sure the players graduate from TU, not McAlester State. Right now, his ability to meet those goals is under scrutiny. And that's fair. Its why he is a millionaire and I am not.
I have to disagree. TU averaged 5 yards per carry and moved the ball well on the ground. The problem was that they continually threw the ball on second down. The rusher would gain 4 yards on first, then there would be an incompletion on second and either another incompletion on third or the back would rush for 4 or 5 and would be a yard or two short. If President plays Saturday I would like to see them run more and pass less. Ideally, if the QB competition was truly as close as it was made out to be, Skipper deserves his chance to see what he can do playing a full game.
It's all about the points. After the way we played offensively against Toledo there was no reason to think that if the defense held New Mexico to 16 points that we shouldn't have won the game by 20+
There were too many instances where we tried to take shots downfield on 1st down instead of utilizing our normal attack. Even throwing a 5 yard out pattern or slant at 60% gives you 2nd and 5 versus 2nd and 10. The options for the offense on 2nd and 5 are numerous, the options on 2nd and 10...not so much
1st down shots are fine as long as you can hit them with some accuracy. They catch the other team off guard and make for quick scoring opportunities saving wear and tear on your entire offense. The problem is not being able to hit those shots.
The offense didn't really pound on all cylinders against Toledo. We had just about as many 3 and outs as they did even though they shot themselves in the foot with penalties and we didn't. Toledo's offense was bonkers. Ours was decent.
If you want to look at his stats, the most telling on is "1 TD" pass.
Our opponents have 11.
Without a passing threat, 3-4 wins is the ceiling.
Our opponents have 11.
Without a passing threat, 3-4 wins is the ceiling.
That's fair. I think we all agree that we need to be efficient passing the football to open up options in the run game. New Mexico packed the box and won because we couldn't dissuade them from packing the box. We will see this same defense the rest of the season.
You're right about first year players and getting game experience under his self. However, 0ne Mississippi, two Mississippi, and three Mississippi . By three Mississippi , Chad either throws the ball to his intended target, throw out of bounds or run. He was getting sacked by indecision, The Lobos had eight in the box and Chad has to make that 3 second decision.
Evan's first season as the "chosen QB" wasn't all that bad as far as the offense goes I think he ended up throwing for something like 3000+ yards and that was in Bill Blankenship's offense.
I also think that our offensive line's renown was overblown to a small extent simply because of the style of offense we run. They aren't huge guys that can push their opponents around at the drop of a hat. They're well conditioned and they wear the opponents defense down over the course of time. Kind of like a technical boxer that knows how to win in the later rounds rather than a TKO knockout artist. We run a lot of plays in quick succession and our line is conditioned for that but it doesn't work when the offense is failing to move the chains because of missed throws.
I also think that our offensive line's renown was overblown to a small extent simply because of the style of offense we run. They aren't huge guys that can push their opponents around at the drop of a hat. They're well conditioned and they wear the opponents defense down over the course of time. Kind of like a technical boxer that knows how to win in the later rounds rather than a TKO knockout artist. We run a lot of plays in quick succession and our line is conditioned for that but it doesn't work when the offense is failing to move the chains because of missed throws.
Sorry, but we have the internet. The two are fairly similar, but Navy actually has more size. So if size is to our detriment, that doesn't bode well either.
Navy's front 5 on offense average 295 or 289 depending on that weeks roster. UNM is 282 week after week.
Navy's 3 man front is 288, 281 when they are running a 4 man front. UNM is at 280 for a 3 man front, and 263 when they run a 4 man front.
http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/navy/91257
http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/new-mexico/91349
Skipper getting the start against Navy... there's a joke in there somewhere..
Jeff Mead is the one that ahd he started out here he could have had a great career with Dane throwing to him.
I wasn't able to see the press conference yesterday - did anyone listen to it/ see it?
Was anything mentioned of note for this weekend?
Was anything mentioned of note for this weekend?
Maybe not start.
But since Chad hasn't established himself, Skipper should get some game time. Maybe even give Hefley some reps.
Mix it up.
