You seem to go on about this war 1 year in, more than the afghani conflict or the Iraq war. Those lasted 20 & 8 years. This is a more valid cause in my opinion than either of those conflicts.The never ending war?
Ukraine….what’s our endgame here
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
I don’t see Ukraine as remotely similar to Afghanistan or Iraq. Those wars were quickly won. The remaining time was spent in armed occupation with low loss of life and very limited armed conflict. Our objective was clear. Use sufficient force to occupy both countries and maintain the necessary troop and armor numbers to occupy those countries until such time we decide to leave. I do agree with your argument regarding Ukraine being a more valid cause.
My problem is and has always been the lack of a real plan to win this conflict. I see no end in sight. The article I linked simply backs up my thoughts which is why I posted it. The US and Europe won’t win a war of attrition imo. Which is why I keep harping on staking out a plan to victory instead of a stalemate. The longer this lingers the closer it brings China and Russia together as well as the likelyhood of Chinese involvement in the conflict. Both of which need to be avoided.
So far the loss of life according to a Ukrainians accounting is appr 6000 soldiers, and approx 8000 civilians. That is not terribly high considering the brutality with which they have been attacked for a little over a year. I'm sure those totals are a little low. (I figure the total is a little over 20k) The Russians have lost 200,000 soldiers.
I don't think they are going to release their plans to the media. You haven't even allowed for the tanks and air defenses to all be delivered, to see what will happen related to this. We have to allow them to get them and at least give them a few months with them. This doesn't resolve itself within a few days or weeks.
Military wins take time to develop. Of course the media is going to comment on it daily, that's their job. Just because talking heads continue to comment on it doesn't mean anything. It took 241 days to break the siege at Tobruk, and you haven't even given them 30 days since they announced the tanks would be provided. This daily questioning, when 29 days ago you were finally glad they were making a move is impatient in my mind.
It reminds me of people melting after every basketball game when they should wait for the 2nd recruiting session to happen.
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You think 6000 on the Ukraine side might be a LITTLE low? Each side has lost approx 100k soldiers. Civilian casualties are approx 40k. That’s a quarter of a million people in the first year. Source is the US :
Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides - BBC News
The estimates are the highest offered yet by a Western official on the months-long conflict.
www.bbc.com
Present estimates was what I was going by. If those estimates are accurate then they would be much higher now.(The one's you quoted.) That was mid November your estimates were from. That is a lot higher death toll than Ukraine is giving. The only stat I gave that was not Ukraine's stat was Russian death toll, which was 200k. Their independence is apparently important to them if they are still pushing forward with popular support in Ukraine, with that much loss.You think 6000 on the Ukraine side might be a LITTLE low? Each side has lost approx 100k soldiers. Civilian casualties are approx 40k. That’s a quarter of a million people in the first year. Source is the US :
Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides - BBC News
The estimates are the highest offered yet by a Western official on the months-long conflict.
I personally feel it is up to that country to decide what losses they are willing to withstand.
I’m not against supporting Ukraine. I’m against not supporting them enough for them to win. Been my position since prior to the start of the war. I haven’t changed since day 1. If we aren’t going to provide the support necessary for them to win (which we haven’t to date) then I support a peace agreement.
I go back again to your being pleased with us sending tanks and essentially saying now we are moving towards supporting them in a way to help win the war. Must wait till they have the tanks to determine if that was enough. They are considering sending F16's now.
That may not win the war, but it is a step in the right direction.
What would satisfy you that we could do to help them win this war? If sending tanks and then sending fighter planes isn't enough what would be?
We are stepping up gradually so that the water isn't suddenly boiling the lobster,(Putin) in order not to irritate actions by Putin towards us/Nato. (1: guns/missile launchers/ammo/drones, 2: Himar system, 3a: Air Defense, 3b: Tanks, 4: F16's/future) We are trying to navigate this quickly enough that we don't get China involved, but that may be too late.
Putin is already making evident what we already knew would come to pass, with his actions very recently. He is manipulating a part of Moldova by funding and controlling the puppet independence of a section of Moldova called Transdniestria. Essentially doing what he has been doing to Ukraine to Moldova, without much resistance from the residents of Transdniestria. Moldova is fighting diplomatically to stop this, but they don't have the weapons or support that has been supplied to Ukraine.
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...Just to give you an idea about the size and population of Transdniestria, it has a population of 500k , and is about 8x bigger than Tulsa.(About the size of Rhode Island) Russia has taken it over and installed a puppet government with just 1500 soldiers. Their have been offers and rumors of Ukraine helping out Moldova by taking it over for Moldova temporarily.. Russia now occupies about 25 times that much land in Ukraine.
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I would hope our analyst have a very good idea at this point the amount and type of armor needed to drive Russia out of Ukraine. My hope is we provide sufficient armor to do just that and this war is over by late summer / early fall. If it we will be in the exact same position a year from now. Only with thousands of more deaths to come and more of the Ukraine destroyed.
We just need to have a constant reassessment of the state of the war by those involved.(US, Nato, Ukraine, etc) That reassessment should be based on it's victories, it's failures, involvement and non involvement of foreign powers. Are those victories and failures coming too slowly, or not slowly enough.(based on former projections) Whether the new projections change the overall progress? How many lives they've lost. Whether it is still worth the loss and sacrifice? Etc. They need to do this at least every two months. Maybe every month.
They have been stepping up, every step of the way you nut job. They have stepped up in ways they haven't done since WWII. What a silly ignorant comment to make. For example, Europe is donating 3 tanks to our 1 to the effort.
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This is not true.
How Much U.S. Aid Is Going to Ukraine?
Nine charts illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.
www.cfr.org
It 'corrected' tanks to takes.This is not true.
How Much U.S. Aid Is Going to Ukraine?
Nine charts illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.
% of GDP some are even giving more than the US. Europe has stepped up in a major way. Saying Europe needs to step up is not giving them credit for what they have done.
You’re correct. As a % of GDP some have given more. Some less. They should give more btw. This conflict is in their backyard and poses a direct threat to their national security as well as economic interests. Much less than the threat posed to the US.
This poses a threat to the US economic interests. Germany should be giving more than they have, that bothers me more than other countries.
Never said it didn’t. The threat however to the US is nowhere near that of Europe. Geography dictates as much. Agree as to Germany. Been this way from the start of the conflict.
The winter lull appears to be over with new fighting occurring across Ukraine. The clip below is a reminder of the devastation the Ukrainian people are enduring. Something to keep in mind next time you think you’re having a bad day.
I wouldn't doubt that a small formerly part of the Soviet Republic country would be backwards, and a little bit strange. If you can think of a short story that illustrates it's weirdness?
It was like living on the set of Chernobyl in 2019. Literally nothing has changed there since 1989. Nice people. They all long for a return to the good ol days: The Soviet Union.
I can’t think of a single vignette. Just lots of Stalin and Cold War era buildings with Soviet imagery still attached. Everyone was drunk. All the time. All the time. 2pm on a Tuesday and folks are out running errands and visibly intoxicated. Cup carriers for glasses of vodka in shopping carts, etc. A full bar as you enter the supermarket running a volume business at low prices.
Pretty sobering article from the NYTs regarding the Ukrainian - Russia conflict. Can’t find much fault with the logic.
DNyuz - Latest Breaking U.S. News
Latest Breaking News, U.S. and World Politics, Crime, Business, Science, Technology, Autos, Entertainment, Culture, Movie, Music, Sports.
dnyuz.com
Do we or the Ukrainians have the stomach to fight a 10 yr proxy war like we did against Russia in Afghanistan?
The Ukrainians, maybe. Us, I doubt it. Too volatile here politically for the public/politicians to make it that long.
Can we produce the weapons necessary and still have sufficient arms for a possible conflict with China? Other considerations at play as well.
I was also comparing it to %GDP to Nato, We had Greece above us,(to NATO) and nobody close to us in % to nato other than Greece. On % support to Ukraine we don't just have Greece we have 6 or 8 that are competing with us in Ukrainian support. And several of those that are competing with us on Ukraine aid(% of GDP) have also significantly increased their % to Nato not too long before this. Overall we are getting much better military financial support out of Europe than we have for a long time.
1). The war is in their backyard, Europe should be leading the way with funding
2). Sure doesn’t appear like Germany is doing their part. Are they trying to appease Putin?
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First why are we going over the same ground. I already mentioned Germany needs to step up more.
Second you can't expect them(Europe) to underfund 40 or 50 years, and suddenly wake up and lead the way. It's not going to happen that way whether you want it to or not. You don't want to lead a horse to water with the stick all the time either. It's time to pull out the carrot and be thankful they stepped up the amount they did. The politicians are gonna get some flak if they go from 0-90 in 3 seconds and put more of their taxpayers dollars toward defense.
It needs to be gradual on getting them to fund it the way they should. Otherwise they are going to have to cut major programs back or tax more, or both. Then the politicians lose the public's support, and get voted out of office. And guess who comes into office, the ones who want to cut back on military funding. You can't fix this overnight. Human nature just doesn't work that way. Be content that we are not paying as much of the bill as we usually do. And hope they do more in the future.
First why are we going over the same ground. I already mentioned Germany needs to step up more.
Second you can't expect them(Europe) to underfund 40 or 50 years, and suddenly wake up and lead the way. It's not going to happen that way whether you want it to or not. You don't want to lead a horse to water with the stick all the time either. It's time to pull out the carrot and be thankful they stepped up the amount they did. The politicians are gonna get some flak if they go from 0-90 in 3 seconds and put more of their taxpayers dollars toward defense.
It needs to be gradual on getting them to fund it the way they should. Otherwise they are going to have to cut major programs back or tax more, or both. Then the politicians lose the public's support, and get voted out of office. And guess who comes into office, the ones who want to cut back on military funding. You can't fix this overnight. Human nature just doesn't work that way. Be content that we are not paying as much of the bill as we usually do. And hope they do more in the future.
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The US is now blaming Russian Separatists and Ukrainian operatives for the Nord Stream explosion... but they arent providing intelligence or naming sources..
We didnt do it.. they did! Come on Man! I'm not joking.. They did it!
We didnt do it.. they did! Come on Man! I'm not joking.. They did it!
Translation appears correct as it is being reported by practically every news outlet. Our foreign policy is currently a mess. The last thing we can afford is a Russia - China alliance. Ominous clouds on the horizon.
www.aljazeera.com
China’s Xi tells Putin of ‘changes not seen for 100 years’
President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin bid each other farewell after talks in Moscow.
It’s a bit of a conspiracy theory, but I think Trump helped drive China towards Russia with his trade war stance.… not that they haven’t been floating towards hostility with their actions in the South China Sea…Translation appears correct as it is being reported by practically every news outlet. Our foreign policy is currently a mess. The last thing we can afford is a Russia - China alliance. Ominous clouds on the horizon.
China’s Xi tells Putin of ‘changes not seen for 100 years’
President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin bid each other farewell after talks in Moscow.
If I didnt know better I would think that he was put into office by Putin (with the help of Putin) with the express desire of driving China closer to Russia for this purpose.
Think that is a significant reach. How about this: Sanctions are really hurting Russia. Russia is desperate for someone with which to trade. China is not only smart but opportunistic. They understand Russia is in trouble. The last thing they want is for Russia to collapse and the NATO countries to gain influence in the area. They also desire to secure access to Russia’s abundant natural resources. It’s the smart long term move.
China is moving to increase their influence worldwide. They are taking significant steps in the Middle East as well as Asia. Our foreign policy strategy (if we have one) appears adrift and unable to address China’s ambitions. We need new leadership regarding foreign policy. P
WSJ reporter's arrest sign that Russia economy is weaker and much less "resilient" than widely portrayed?
fortune.com
Putin can’t handle the truth: Why American journalist Evan Gershkovich, who was abducted for revealing Russia's economic collapse, must be freed
By prosecuting an American journalist, Putin has crossed a line that even he had never crossed before–and every bloodthirsty despot will be watching.
He could have been doing a story on their tank, artillery or shell manufacturing. It would be an interesting story and potentially good for intelligence. Who knows though.WSJ reporter's arrest sign that Russia economy is weaker and much less "resilient" than widely portrayed?
Putin can’t handle the truth: Why American journalist Evan Gershkovich, who was abducted for revealing Russia's economic collapse, must be freed
By prosecuting an American journalist, Putin has crossed a line that even he had never crossed before–and every bloodthirsty despot will be watching.
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