Ukraine…..does he or doesn’t he?
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
I still think we're treading extremely close to the line of something really catastrophic happening and the US being pulled in... which would be terribly unfortunate. Especially if it lead to larger global conflict with a Russian, Chinese, North Korean, Iranian alliance.
The positive signs we've seen in Ukraine are tremendously heartening in terms of their bravery and sacrifice paying dividends. I just think we have to remain vigilant and make intelligent decisions. This whole thing is one wrong outcome away from what could be the end of the world as we know it at least for the foreseeable future. I would prefer the status quo of the 90's to what happened in the 40's or 50's.
I do also wonder what level of propoganda we're seeing vs. what the Russians are seeing. I don't know what's getting through to each community vs the actual situation on the ground.
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Ruskies are going to hit them really hard soon. Not sure they can withstand it. It would help of all these anti-aircraft weapons countries are sending were already there. Maybe too little too late
So far the Russians have been treating civilians abnormally well compared to some other warzones. I wonder how long before they start saying that any civilian approaching Russian troops or recording troop movements are liable to be shot. When everyone looks like a civilian in a winter coat, how do you differentiate between civilians and militia?
I'm not saying they should do this morally, but militarily it's a big problem at the moment. Part of the reason that it sucks to fight offensively in big populated cities.
The initial ineptness of the Russian military in Ukrain reminds me of what happened in Chechnya. Hopefully this doesn't start to happen:
"Filtration" Camps
"Filtration" Camps
Assuming he’s got the facts on the ground correct this is pretty good analysis from a marine I went to high school with
Why the Russians are struggling
Why the Russians are struggling
“This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally,” they wrote in a joint statement, also pledging “restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions,” and restricting the sale of “golden passports” that allow Russian oligarchs to avoid the brunt of sanctions already levied.
It's still not a knockout blow.
Is there an alternative to SWIFT?
Since 2014, Russia has run its own financial messaging system for Russian and foreign banks. It has developed an alternative messaging system called SPFS (Financial messaging system of the Bank of Russia) which handles about a fifth of domestic payments. It has only 400 users. “This is a reliable and secure channel for sending electronic messages on financial transactions," Russia's central bank says in a note.
Given the difficulties we’ve had with putting in sanctions with teeth due to dependence on Russian energy it would be nice if the US and Europe started trying to reduce economic dependence on China yesterday
That's a hard Gordian Knot to unravel... but it may be necessary to cut it and move on.
One of which is Russia's Central Bank with $640 Billion in foreign exchange reserves which is held in central banks in NY, Frankfurt, London, etc...
That's a move that we've never, ever, seen before, and it's likely to push the Russians to retaliate. We shall see what they do. I know our industries that have cybersecurity dependencies are gearing up for the ramifications.
I assume Russia will eventually prevail but with an absolutely crippled economy. It’s going to be hard times for the Russian people. Do they blame Putin or look outward?
Yeah I don’t think there’s much political will on either side in the US to do it, but there should be
Interested to see the net effect. Looks like we will exclude transactions which involve energy. So Russia should still receive their funds from the sale of oil and gas. Assume that constitutes a majority of their trade revenue. Also interested to see if China comes to their aid.
I worry that with Kyiv showing resilience, that Putin will just decide to destroy everything he can. I am thinking something like the Dresden firebombing might be coming for Kyiv. If he can’t have it, he’ll just destroy it. He’s kind of committed at this point, and I don’t see him retreating unless the unrest at home gets much worse.
There have been rumors for the last couple of,years that Putin may be suffering from Parkinson’s disease. It is just a rumor, but it could explain some of this. Take a patient and clever megalomaniac that controls an army and has imperial ambitions. Now assume he is suffering a moderate decline in cognitive function and an increase in impulsivity due to disease and you might get something like this. Pure speculation, but worth considering.
This is what I'm worried about for the Ukranians. Thermobaric weapons have been deployed to the region. They effectively have an small primer explosion to spread gasoline vapor and then an ignition explosion which effectively 'lights the air on fire' so to speak. Their blast radius is relatively small but they're shot ~24 at a time from one vehicle. This is what the Russians used to capitulate Grozny (the capital) of Chechnya. They surrounded the city, waited for enemy fire and then line-of-sighted the thermobaric rockets which are mounted on effectively their T-72 tank body.
The Ukranians (or someone with long range missile capabilities *wink* *wink*) better get to those units before the start firing. I would be 'lending' the Ukranians a ton of UAV's to target those before it's too late and Kyiv falls.
I wonder what the chances would be we could convince Moldova to be the stage for a long range strike. They're not in NATO yet.
Edit: After I posted this, I saw this.... looks like it might already be too late.
The Ukranians (or someone with long range missile capabilities *wink* *wink*) better get to those units before the start firing. I would be 'lending' the Ukranians a ton of UAV's to target those before it's too late and Kyiv falls.
I wonder what the chances would be we could convince Moldova to be the stage for a long range strike. They're not in NATO yet.
Edit: After I posted this, I saw this.... looks like it might already be too late.
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Kind of wonder if all the crazy cyber attacks we had last year were laying the ground work for this. A warning shot not to push back too hard
I don't think we're the only ones that can have our infrastructure screwed around with though. They should watch out which buttons they push.
I agree with this. Our government may not spend an exorbitant amount on cyber warfare but it is one area a country doesn’t need high expenditure and infrastructure to be strong in.
I know quite a few black and white hat hackers because I’ve now been in IT and IT security for so long. There are A LOT of extremely highly skilled American hackers already attacking Russia and any country that show signs of supporting them.
America has enough decentralized hackers that it can successfully take down an entire country’s infrastructure.
If they decide to and want they can do so in a way making it impossible for said countries to retaliate. The countries wouldn’t even be able to connect to US networks over the internet to attack back. Will they do this? I don’t know. But they can and I suspect will IF Russia takes Ukraine and thinks they’ll expand their attacks further.
If anyone is curious how American hackers can manage the above google blockchain (what cryptocurrencies are based on), Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, and quite a few others.
The US owns A MASSIVE majority of the market share in cloud computing. Hackers can easily use it as an advantage in cyber warfare and none of those companies will consider removing their attacks off their networks and risk the hackers, in turn, attacking their cloud offerings.
Apologies for such a long post but I've more libations tonight than I've had in the past 1-2 years combined and talked quite a bit to the most skilled white hacker I personally know.
Lotta escalation the past 24 hours. With Europe sending some jets today the several mile long processions of Russian vehicles may start getting smoked. They’ve never been shy about running their dudes into a meat grinder though.
You know you F'd up when the Swiss are going against their traditional role of Neutrality.
ttps://twitter.com/rickieleakz/status/1497879534414221315
ttps://twitter.com/rickieleakz/status/1497879534414221315
Sorry for the spam but, just noting that global hacker groups, some with Russian members, are busy attacking Russia and their allies.
I’ve followed them for years.
The stuff they post is safe to view and sometimes plays a role in their efforts in taking down websites when they post links to what they’re taking down.
Just don’t be a jerk in their comments, LOl!
Websites are cute, but what really has to be infiltrated are corporate communication networks and / or command and control networks. Those are the holy grail. They've done some low level access, but getting into those would be valuable.
The real problem is that most of our hackers don't speak or write Russian while the best ways to infiltrate (spear fishing, etc...) can require convincing ploys to Russian speakers. Obviously many of their hackers do speak English which gives them a leg up.
Getting access to things like that corporate network in Belarus are vital.
One of the more remarkable thing about this war is how troop and especially armor movements are being shown almost real time to the world via Twitter.
The documentary on the Ukrainian defense will be fascinating. So many moving parts. So many different players. So many changing decisions as far as countries not providing arms and then almost everyone in NATO as well as many others supplying weapons. Sanctions. Behind the scenes support. Etc…
The documentary on the Ukrainian defense will be fascinating. So many moving parts. So many different players. So many changing decisions as far as countries not providing arms and then almost everyone in NATO as well as many others supplying weapons. Sanctions. Behind the scenes support. Etc…
Some of the video / aerial photos of Russian convoys are almost unbelievable. Hundreds of vehicles bumper to bumper for miles. It’s no wonder they’ve lost so many in a such a small amount of time
