Tulsa's RPI and NCAA Tourney chances
- Thread starter Tu Geo
- Start date
ESPN Bubble Watch..
But first, which of the 4 below are in and who is out based on record, RPI, and SOS.
17-7 (7-4), RPI: 46, SOS: 57
16-8 (8-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 44
15-8 (9-3), RPI: 62, SOS: 72
18-7 (8-4), RPI: 63, SOS: 108
American Athletic Conference
Work left to do: Connecticut, Temple, Cincinnati
Signs of life from Tulsa ! Wednesday's win at SMU wasn't enough to get the Golden Hurricane [16-8 (8-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 44] on the page, at least not yet, but it did at least keep them on the long-range radar. If they can double down on the road success at UConn on Saturday, then we're in business.
Connecticut [17-7 (7-4), RPI: 46, SOS: 57] Yikes. That was the only possible reaction to UConn's loss at Temple on Thursday, when the Huskies were outscored 23-6 in the final seven minutes, committed six turnovers in that span, and missed every 3 (Temple buried five). Worst of all, down three with 13 seconds to play, guard Rodney Purvis committed a blatant and totally unforced double dribble at midcourt that robbed Connecticut of a chance to keep Temple within one possession in the closing moments. Bru. Tal.
Temple [15-8 (9-3), RPI: 62, SOS: 72] Thursday's comeback (and concurrent UConn meltdown) completed a regular-season sweep of the Huskies, which is a decent little bubble bargaining chip, at least. The same can be said of the Owls' first-place lead in the American. Neither are enough to get them off the fringe, but they're undoubtedly trending in the right direction -- and still have a huge home game against Villanova to come next week.
Cincinnati [18-7 (8-4), RPI: 63, SOS: 108] After last weekend's loss at Memphis, the Bearcats avoided back-to-back problems with a win at UCF, which is frequently just as important as the big wins we spend so much time obsessing over in this space. The same proposition holds true for
But first, which of the 4 below are in and who is out based on record, RPI, and SOS.
17-7 (7-4), RPI: 46, SOS: 57
16-8 (8-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 44
15-8 (9-3), RPI: 62, SOS: 72
18-7 (8-4), RPI: 63, SOS: 108
American Athletic Conference
Work left to do: Connecticut, Temple, Cincinnati
Signs of life from Tulsa ! Wednesday's win at SMU wasn't enough to get the Golden Hurricane [16-8 (8-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 44] on the page, at least not yet, but it did at least keep them on the long-range radar. If they can double down on the road success at UConn on Saturday, then we're in business.Connecticut [17-7 (7-4), RPI: 46, SOS: 57] Yikes. That was the only possible reaction to UConn's loss at Temple on Thursday, when the Huskies were outscored 23-6 in the final seven minutes, committed six turnovers in that span, and missed every 3 (Temple buried five). Worst of all, down three with 13 seconds to play, guard Rodney Purvis committed a blatant and totally unforced double dribble at midcourt that robbed Connecticut of a chance to keep Temple within one possession in the closing moments. Bru. Tal.
Temple [15-8 (9-3), RPI: 62, SOS: 72] Thursday's comeback (and concurrent UConn meltdown) completed a regular-season sweep of the Huskies, which is a decent little bubble bargaining chip, at least. The same can be said of the Owls' first-place lead in the American. Neither are enough to get them off the fringe, but they're undoubtedly trending in the right direction -- and still have a huge home game against Villanova to come next week.
Cincinnati [18-7 (8-4), RPI: 63, SOS: 108] After last weekend's loss at Memphis, the Bearcats avoided back-to-back problems with a win at UCF, which is frequently just as important as the big wins we spend so much time obsessing over in this space. The same proposition holds true for
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ESPN has a bias towards the old Big East teams - UConn and Cinncy. Remember where the ESPN headquarters is located.
With the way this team is playing right now. They have a much better chance of actually competing against the teams they play the rest of the season. Yes, with the Birt factor Tulsa has a chance of beating Cincinnati by 2 points. Would not have said that at the mid point of the season.
UConn is huge for RPI and national perception. But a loss there is not the end- a sweep out would do it. I do think UConn can be had at home. 2 losses and the team likely has to win the AAC. UConn seems to play tight at home with two conference losses (Cinncy and Temple) and a close late win vs. Georgetown.
It looks like the game is on campus in stead of downtown Hartford. I like that - the atmosphere will be more like the SMU game not the big arena emptiness.
It looks like the game is on campus in stead of downtown Hartford. I like that - the atmosphere will be more like the SMU game not the big arena emptiness.
Tulsa now last four in with Cincy last four out.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
USA today has us in as well.
Lunardi hasn't updated yet.
GO TU!!!!
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ketball-march-madness-bubble-kansas/80374484/
Lunardi hasn't updated yet.
GO TU!!!!
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ketball-march-madness-bubble-kansas/80374484/
Lunardi has us in now and four teams from the AAC
GO TU!!!!!
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament
GO TU!!!!!
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament
Wow...when reviewing the link, Lunardi simply goes by the BPI. Seems pretty "simplistic". Perhaps that's required due to his ESPN ties.
That link isn't Lunardi's bracket. That is simply the bracket according to BPI.
Clarification...I don't think Lunardi has TU "IN" yet...
The link Geo posted was the tourney field "selecting at large teams solely based on the BPI"...
The link Geo posted was the tourney field "selecting at large teams solely based on the BPI"...
Lunardi's latest tweet, after losses by Alabama and Butler. The guy's smoking crack. We have a better RPI and resume than quite a few teams he says are in.
16h16 hours ago
Joe Lunardi @ESPNLunardi
Bubble update: IN: Texas Tech, Alabama, Butler, Bonaventure; OUT: Vandy, Tulsa, St. Mary's, Oregon St; NEXT: LSU, Clemson, GW, Washington.
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I looked at the bracket matrix a little last night and one guy had us in the play-in game against South Carolina, wouldn't that be a punch in the gut. This also begs the question, why does every Tom, Dick, and Harry have a bracket and get recognized for it?
That wouldn't be allowed by the selection rules. Alot of these guys don't spend the time to avoid rematches in their brackets.
Here's a decent bracket site that has us in. Not sure why the love for Wichita State with just 1 top 50 win, Utah, and 2 51-100 wins, both against Evansville and 2 bad losses to Illnois St and N Iowa. Their other losses were to good teams, mostly with Van Fleet out.
https://sports.yahoo.com/featured/ncaab/bigboard/
https://sports.yahoo.com/featured/ncaab/bigboard/
Wichita is a very good team with a very mediocre resume. I could easily imagine a scenario (Maryland as a 3 seed) where they're favored to make the sweet 16 as an 11 seed. They're pantsing Indiana State in Terra Haute right now. Hopefully they win Arch Madness and make it a moot point.
I don't disagree that WSU is a really good team. But if you put the stats of them and us side by side and consider we won against them, it's hard to see them seeded as high as 7 by some and us on the bubble.
Tulsa's record in the AAC is 25-9 over the last two years.
Only surpassed by SMU's 25-7
Temple 24-9
Cincy 23-10
UCONN 19-13
Memphis16-16
When does our success start to pay off with the national press.
On the AACBBS board Temple and Cincy fans are a bunch of asshats...considers our program as an alsoran.
The record over the last two years doesn't reflect that at all.
Current RPI #32 but neither ESPN nor CBS has us in its brackets.
Do we pull for SMU over Cincy and UCONN now?
GO TU!!!!!
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report
Only surpassed by SMU's 25-7
Temple 24-9
Cincy 23-10
UCONN 19-13
Memphis16-16
When does our success start to pay off with the national press.
On the AACBBS board Temple and Cincy fans are a bunch of asshats...considers our program as an alsoran.
The record over the last two years doesn't reflect that at all.
Current RPI #32 but neither ESPN nor CBS has us in its brackets.
Do we pull for SMU over Cincy and UCONN now?
GO TU!!!!!
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report
I think it's pretty much impossible for us to get the one seed unless Temple loses twice since they have sweeps of Uconn, Cincy, and a single win over SMU. SMU and Temple losing would only guarantee us a share of the conference regular season title, but we would still be the 2 seed no matter what.
Don't care about seeding. I want a banner on senior day.
USA Today has Tulsa in as a #10 seed not on the bubble.
GO TU!!!!
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...le-villanova-xavier-oklahoma-kansas/80846280/
GO TU!!!!
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...le-villanova-xavier-oklahoma-kansas/80846280/
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This so-and-so from Bleacher Report has us in as a 10 seed playing Purdue in Philly.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...t-latest-projection-of-the-field-of-68/page/5
I'd rather have USC in St Louis as USA Today is predicting, but I'm just happy we're 'in' as of this moment.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...t-latest-projection-of-the-field-of-68/page/5
I'd rather have USC in St Louis as USA Today is predicting, but I'm just happy we're 'in' as of this moment.
The best, IMO, is Patrick Stevens who ran his own site for years before being picked up by the Washington Post. He has us as a 10 seed in today's update and says:
"Tulsa is at-large No. 32 — barely escaping the play-in games. The Golden Hurricane has won 11 of its last 14 and closes with games against Memphis and South Florida it really needs to win."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...xavier-are-no-1-seeds-but-expect-one-to-drop/
"Tulsa is at-large No. 32 — barely escaping the play-in games. The Golden Hurricane has won 11 of its last 14 and closes with games against Memphis and South Florida it really needs to win."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...xavier-are-no-1-seeds-but-expect-one-to-drop/
Posted in the Alley and will post here for information and discussion:
The RPI rating is often considered a factor in selecting and seeding the final few teams in the tournament field. However, the NCAA selection committee in 2015 said the RPI is no longer relevant only utilized for grouping the teams into groups such as top 50 and top 100 teams to value the wins and losses and not as a factor for selection.[3] Additionally, the committee officially considers other computer rankings such as ESPN's BPI, Sagarin and Pomeroy Ratings which use additional factors considered by the committee such as injured players in the case of the BPI. Additionally, committee members consider how teams do on the road and at neutral courts, strength of conference and schedule, non-conference strength of schedule, record against other selected tournament teams, and other extenuating factors. Finally, the "eye test" is often quoted by pundits as something the committee uses, however ncaa.org's sparse description of the selection process doesn't officially mention the "eye test".[4] For instance, in 2016 Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione, the NCAA selection committee's chair, said that the stark contrast in Syracuse's performance in 2015-2016 with Jim Boeheim present versus absent was considered the same as missing a key player during the slump.[5]
The RPI rating is often considered a factor in selecting and seeding the final few teams in the tournament field. However, the NCAA selection committee in 2015 said the RPI is no longer relevant only utilized for grouping the teams into groups such as top 50 and top 100 teams to value the wins and losses and not as a factor for selection.[3] Additionally, the committee officially considers other computer rankings such as ESPN's BPI, Sagarin and Pomeroy Ratings which use additional factors considered by the committee such as injured players in the case of the BPI. Additionally, committee members consider how teams do on the road and at neutral courts, strength of conference and schedule, non-conference strength of schedule, record against other selected tournament teams, and other extenuating factors. Finally, the "eye test" is often quoted by pundits as something the committee uses, however ncaa.org's sparse description of the selection process doesn't officially mention the "eye test".[4] For instance, in 2016 Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione, the NCAA selection committee's chair, said that the stark contrast in Syracuse's performance in 2015-2016 with Jim Boeheim present versus absent was considered the same as missing a key player during the slump.[5]
http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2014/03/how-well-did-computers-predict-field.html
"In general, we see the same results every year. The RPI and Sagarin PURE_ELO, as measures of resume quality, are always pretty close to the final Selection Committee results. The Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings, as measures of team quality, are pretty far off. As I've said to the point of boredom over the last week, this is the way the brackets are always made. You are rewarded for your resume, not how good you are.
For example, UMass is one of the five or six worst teams in as an at-large bid, but they earned their 6 seed (23rd in RPI, 28th in Sagarin PURE_ELO). And Utah was better than more than a dozen at-large teams, yet they in no way deserved an at-large bid (59th in Sagarin PURE_ELO, 80th in RPI).
Now, what about whether RPI or Sagarin PURE_ELO is more accurate? As always, those two metrics are pretty close. The Sagarin PURE_ELO is a much more accurate measure, but the Selection Committee itself uses the RPI, because they are apparently clueless to the fact that it's a horrible metric that is 20 years out-of-date and easily gamed."
"In general, we see the same results every year. The RPI and Sagarin PURE_ELO, as measures of resume quality, are always pretty close to the final Selection Committee results. The Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings, as measures of team quality, are pretty far off. As I've said to the point of boredom over the last week, this is the way the brackets are always made. You are rewarded for your resume, not how good you are.
For example, UMass is one of the five or six worst teams in as an at-large bid, but they earned their 6 seed (23rd in RPI, 28th in Sagarin PURE_ELO). And Utah was better than more than a dozen at-large teams, yet they in no way deserved an at-large bid (59th in Sagarin PURE_ELO, 80th in RPI).
Now, what about whether RPI or Sagarin PURE_ELO is more accurate? As always, those two metrics are pretty close. The Sagarin PURE_ELO is a much more accurate measure, but the Selection Committee itself uses the RPI, because they are apparently clueless to the fact that it's a horrible metric that is 20 years out-of-date and easily gamed."
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