Tulsa's RPI and NCAA Tourney chances

[Tu Geo]

#71 14-8 ESPN

Low bubble chance.

8 loss teams in the RPI are as follows:

22 Florida 15-8
31 Cal 15-8
33 Ore. St 13-8
44 Syr. 16-8
57 Wash. 15-8
63 Georgia 13-8
71 Tulsa 14-8
75 LSU 15-8
82 Ole Miss 15-8

The AAC changes everything Tulsa's chance to get a bid with lots of losses are much better now than in the past.

We no longer need to go 25-5. Probably have a chance with 10 or even 11 losses.

Time will tell.

Go TU!!!!

 

[bigzit]

Crack kills!

 

[Air_Raid918]

Must split road trip at SMU and UCONN, take care of Cincinnati and Temple at home, and win the rest. Then get to the finals of conference tourney.

That would put us at 23-10. Only way I see an at large.

 

[TU_BLA]

Sweep this week...let Mortal Kombat begin...FINISH HIM!

 

[GOB10]

What are you people smoking? This team has NO chance of getting an at large bid unless they run the table and we all know that is not happening. Look I am just being realistic about the situation and the way this team shoots the basketball it just wont happen.

 

[astonmartin708]

Must split road trip at SMU and UCONN, take care of Cincinnati and Temple at home, and win the rest. Then get to the finals of conference tourney.

That would put us at 23-10. Only way I see an at large.

We have a better chance to beat both SMU + UCONN on the road than Cincy at home.

 

[PhoggyBottom]

Must split road trip at SMU and UCONN, take care of Cincinnati and Temple at home, and win the rest. Then get to the finals of conference tourney.

That would put us at 23-10. Only way I see an at large.

I think this might do it. I think a win on the road against SMU would allow for two more regular season losses to good teams (such as UConn on road and Cincy at home).

 

[hotterthanyourhusbandTU]

Aston is probably right...we don't seem to match up well (at all) with Cincy...

 

[ba11game]

I think we need to beat SMU to have any chance at an at-large bid. WSU winning out would help a lot too. That would give us two big wins and a rivalry game as our only bad loss. This is not like last year, where we were in the conversation until we finished weak. We need a big win to get into the conversation this time.

 

[Tu Geo]

I think we need to beat SMU to have any chance at an at-large bid. WSU winning out would help a lot too. That would give us two big wins and a rivalry game as our only bad loss. This is not like last year, where we were in the conversation until we finished weak. We need a big win to get into the conversation this time.

Perhaps three big wins UCONN is #22 on ESPN's BPI rating. So along with SMU (if it happens) and Wichita State that is not bad. Get Cincy , UCONN and Memphis before the Tourney. Tulsa has plenty of chances to impress.

Gosh if Haith and the Tulsa team did well that my upset the doomsday posters.

GO TU!!!!

 

[TU Hurricane Warning]

Slim very slim margin.

 

[ctt8410]

Perhaps three big wins UCONN is #22 on ESPN's BPI rating.

Per KenPom, Wichita State (12) and UConn (21) are the program's 2 best wins since we beat Marquette in 2002.

 

[TU_BLA]

Does BPI stand for Biased Power Index?

 

[mcane]

I suspect all this discussion becomes moot around 10 PM tonight, but I hope not.

 

[t-townpod]

We must win 2/3: UCONN, SMU and Cincy. Win the rest and I think we may get in. 1/3 even with other wins and no real chance unless we win the conf tourny.

 

[Bill Lowery]

We must win 2/3: UCONN, SMU and Cincy. Win the rest and I think we may get in. 1/3 even with other wins and no real chance unless we win the conf tourny.

I think you're correct. Winning 6 of 7 against these teams, with 4 of them on the road, seems to be very improbable. That's why losing at Houston and Temple (especially Temple) were so hard to take. We now have our backs against the wall and have no margin for error.

 

[Tu Geo]

We must win 2/3: UCONN, SMU and Cincy. Win the rest and I think we may get in. 1/3 even with other wins and no real chance unless we win the conf tourny.

We get an at large winning 6 out of the last 7. According to Forecast RPI we would be #38. Now is that going to happen? Probably not. It appears we have an outside chance losing two games (#49) . Still pretty tough.

GO TU!!!!

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Tulsa.html

 

[jesterondirt]

Could someone just sit the team down and make them watch that throwback video from our elite 8 run?

We might go 7-0

 

[lawpoke87]

#38 = dancing

#49 = home game in first round NIT

 

[Tu Geo]

#38 = dancing

#49 = home game in first round NIT

Your probably right Law. Right now #48 on BPI is the last at large so its possible.

GO TU!!!!

 

[ctt8410]

Per KenPom, Wichita State (12) and UConn (21) are the program's 2 best wins since we beat Marquette in 2002.

*edit: 3 best wins. SMU (19).

 

[Tulsa_]

RPI now 42 on live-rpi.com

 

[Tu Geo]

*edit: 3 best wins. SMU (19).

Yea good point Ctt8410 don't know why so many posters give Haith so much sh%^. I guess they don't remember the Woj years.

GO TU!!!!

 

[TU Hurricane Warning]

Margin is not as slim as it was several hours ago! Big time victory tonight! Had the feel of a magical tourney run.

 

[TU_BLA]

Grab a 2nd win vs. UCONN this weekend and we're in good shape.

 

[Tulsafanzz]

NCAA or not, beating arrogant SMU in Dallas was awesome!

 

[TU Hurricane Warning]

Our teams have had some epic battles over the years. Just a fun rivalry all the way around...especially fun when we win.

 

[mcane]

wow a move to 42 is awesome. That's clearly at large territory with two top 50 teams ineligible - SMOO and Loosemoralsville

 

[jesterondirt]

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/by-conference/?anchor=americanamerican

This site is currently projecting UCONN, Cincy and Tulsa.

 

[texcane1982]

For whatever reason Lunardi's Thu morning update has Temple, UConn, and Cincy, despite Cincy have an RPI in the 60's. I assume he believes Cincy will win at Tulsa and catapult into the 40's.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/226

TX

 

[texcane1982]

Yea good point Ctt8410 don't know why so many posters give Haith so much sh%^. I guess they don't remember the Woj years.

GO TU!!!!

Agree, much of the criticism Haith has received over the lack of offensive punch is an overreaction IMO. He inherited an unenviable roster situation only allowing him to sign a few players who could immediately contribute. Last night was the greatest example of how his motion offense can work with the proper mix of players and proper synchronized movement without the ball.
The frontcourt players were quick and able to finish at the rim, plus able to knock down a few open mid-range jumpers, and backcourt was patient enough to find and knock down open looks both inside and behind the arc, capitalizing on over aggressive perimeter defense by finishing at the rim. IMO we witnessed near perfect execution, and a great example just how the right formula can produce a number of quality looks at the rim and inside/behind the arc. The end result was 82 points and an outstanding 58% from the field against a team who's season avg's were among the best at 64 ppg against and 40% fg defense.

The Birt factor from behind the arc has really opened up the paint for the high-low action, Shaq dribble penetration, and Juice the opportunity to display his all-around offensive game. Both Swanny and Dre are much more effective cutting to the rim vs posting up, and as the offensive chemistry develops with Birt as a serious threat we may start seeing more teams play man-to-man vs zone.

just my .02

TX

 

[texcane1982]

The last 2 wins over quality opponents are the type of wins that build the necessary confidence to close out a tournament bid. The loss at Temple was rather devastating, the coaching staff and players deserve a ton of credit for showing enormous character, putting the loss behind them and pressing on. They deserve a packed house when Cincinnati comes to town next Thu, a game which could weigh heavily on TU's and UC's chances of landing an at large bid. This could be deja vu all over again, I believe it was Cincy's defining late season win at TU that ultimately decided the post-season fate of each team last season.


TX

 

[mcane]

Lunardi's on crack not listing TU as next 4 or the second next 4 out. I wonder if he even knows TU won at SMU last night. Or maybe he has a ceiling on the American at 3, even though the NCAA Committee claims it evaluates teams, not conferences.

 

[GOB10]

1 down 6 more to go I still think we need to win out to get an at large bid. I will eat a little crow this morning because I never in my life thought this team could shoot 58% from the field and 82% from the free throw line against any team let alone smu. Great win..time to build on it and continue to gel and go get 6 more wins!

 

[TulsaEye]

As it stands. There is no team that has an insurmountable lead in the AAC right now. Any of the top 4 or 5 teams can win the conference. You just need to win out, or most of them. From here on to the end. You can't ask for more than that!

 

[Tu Geo]

Tulsa is 8-2 in the last 10 AAC games. Would have been 9-1 if we knock down the one and ones at Temple.

We have as good a chance as anyone.

GO TU!!!!!

 

[JesseTU]

Yay RPI and bubble discussions. Seriously, love having that discussion.

Our current RPI rank is 41.

No Big East/American team has ever been left out with an RPI above 40 (Cinci was left out at 40). This isn't the old BigEast, but it lays solid basketball.

If you have the right name brand and/or finish strong, you have an outside shot at an at-large bid in the mid 60s (rare). Odds improve dramatically from there.

Wins matter - less than 20 wins, good luck. More than 24 wins, good luck keeping them out (ORU holds the record for being kept out with 27 wins). We should be able to get to 20, we need to win out to get to 22. Add in a win or two in the tournament, and it is possible to get to 24 wins.

Reputation matters - unfortunately, all the talking heads (Palm, Sagarin, the clowns on ESPN's BPI) think we had our blip on the radar and will slough off the rest of the season. To go play in the NIT. Predicted RPI finish is 50+. They have already dubbed The American a one bid league. What that means is we need to change their minds, if you are on the bubble and thought little of - you're out.

If we take losses to 2 of the three - UCONN, Temple, Cinci and win the rest we end the regular season with 20-10 and an RPI of around 40. At that point, we probably need 2 tournament wins and a close loss to someone good to be in the bubble conversation. If we only drop one more game in the regular season, pick up 2 tournament wins, and lose to Temple, Cinci, Houston, or UCONN in the Tournament --- we have a good shot for an at large bid. If we drop more than 2 in the regular season, we need to make some serious noise in the tournament.

 

[ctt8410]

Odds To Make NCAA Tournament By Win Total
Total Wins NCAA Bid%
25 100.0%
24 100.0%
23 99.7%
22 95.9%
21 77.2%
20 43.1%
19 10.5%
18 0.9%
17 0.1%
OVERALL 54.6%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/tulsa-golden-hurricane/bracketology

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Hopefully Haith won't be satisfied with collecting his Ojcik 20 win bonus.

 

[bigzit]

Just don't f'in lose.

Seriously guys... these guys beat UCONN, TEMPLE and CINCY, and they still aren't locks. They can't lose the games they shouldn't and they must get to the SEMIS of the tourney and they likely must beat 2 of the 3 against TEMPLE, CINCY and UCONN. Tall order.