It's Opening Day. There is always hope for success some year.
Posted on Wed, Mar. 30, 2011
Waiting is the hardest part in Royals’ youth movement
SAM MELLINGER COMMENTARY
SURPRISE, Ariz. | You have every reason to roll your eyes. The Royals are talking prospects, again, about an arrival date that always seems just beyond the horizon.
You have been invited to this party before. Mike Moustakas is a stud? So was Alex Gordon. Eric Hosmer’s going to wow Kansas City? So was Justin Huber. Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy and John Lamb are going to be aces? Heard that before with Chris George, Jeff Austin and Colt Griffin.
Please, you say. Save it for a sucker.
Except this time is different.
Scouts and executives all over baseball are gushing about the Royals’ future like never before. Really, it’s hard to remember the baseball industry buzzing over any team’s prospects like this. The joke among scouts during spring training is that the best team in the Cactus League is the 2013 Royals. “Never seen anything like it,” a rival executive says.
This isn’t fail-proof, and it’s certainly not fail-proof for the Royals, but here’s the rub: The most likely way for it to fail is to lose patience.
That goes for you. That goes for me. And it especially goes for the Royals’ prospects and decision-makers.
“I think there are times you can accelerate the process,” owner David Glass says, “but you can’t do it artificially. The kids have to be ready to play.”
This year’s big-league team figures to lose about 95 games.
So how much more patience do you have?
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The Bible says that “patience is better than pride.” In Buddhism, it is said that patience can keep you from succumbing to doubt and discouragement. Judaism teaches that a patient man is better than a warrior.
You can connect the dots from those definitions to what the Royals are doing. Patience is a multimillion-dollar industry, even without the Royals needing it to navigate Major League Baseball. Patience is a commodity, at least according to a mess of self-help books and the teachings of everyone from priests to professors to the Dalai Lama.
This is one place where spirit and science agree. Scientific studies have linked impatience with hypertension and high blood pressure. Research shows that a lack of patience is literally embedded in our DNA: We are constantly inclined to devalue the future in favor of the present.
This has been revealed in everything from studies involving monkeys to analysis of sports teams trading future draft picks. The authors of Scorecasting found teams and fans to be sensationally impatient. Their research showed NFL teams discount future picks by 174 percent, meaning teams valued the same pick for this year’s draft at nearly three times the same in next year’s draft.
Advertisers seem to know how our brains work, which explains why commercials scream at us to Act Now! and promise special bonuses if we call in the next 15 minutes.
In many ways, this is the common experience in modern America. We want it now, and more than ever before, the world is giving it to us. Airline rewards programs let us skip security lines, DVRs let us skip commercials and cell phones give us virtually any bit of information anytime we want it.
We don’t wait because we no longer have to, which is a wonderful way to live, except building a winning baseball team in the second-smallest market of today’s Major League Baseball reality requires something else entirely.
If you’ve been a Royals fan for any length of time, you’ve already been asked too often for patience. You’ve been misled at times, neglected at others, and let down almost always.
Now, your patience is being tested again.
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Ned Yost is in his office. He is about to say something that you will remember, the kind of quote that will stick on him for years, good or bad, like when general manager Dayton Moore said the championship parade will go through the Plaza.
But first, a little background. You might know that Yost is here as the Royals’ manager because of what he helped build in Atlanta and Milwaukee. There are nuances to each of those success stories, but essentially both franchises went from pathetic to playoffs because of prospects.
Yost is talking freely ? there are no cameras or microphones around ? but he does not know the thrust of this column. This is good to remember when he answers a question about the most critical part of those prior experiences.
“Had patience,” he says. “Most important thing we did. Had patience.”
This is real. In Milwaukee, Rickie Weeks was atrocious for most of his first two seasons. Struck out twice as often as he walked, batted .259 and made 43 errors in fewer than 200 games. Advanced statistics said he was worse than a commonly available minor leaguer. Two years later, he was a key part of a playoff team.
J.J. Hardy was batting .187 at the All-Star break his rookie year, a start so bad that Milwaukee owner Mark Attanasio started asking Yost how long he’d stick with this guy. As long as I’m here, was Yost’s answer, and two years later Hardy hit 26 home runs and made the All-Star team.
“If I bailed on those kids, what do you have?” Yost says now. “Nothing.”
Baseball history is full of promising careers cut short in part because of impatience. David Clyde might be the most famous example. He debuted at 18 and was out of baseball by 24.
More locally, baseball people with the Royals and other clubs sometimes bring up Alex Gordon as a warning of pushing too soon. There is at least some revisionist history here, because Gordon was the college and minor-league player of the year in the two seasons before he debuted in the big leagues. But hindsight says Gordon wasn’t quite ready for the majors.
He got a standing ovation before his first big-league game, another before his first at-bat, and then promptly popped up with the bases loaded and two outs. Now, he is damaged baseball goods, scouts whispering that he bulked up too much and lost his fast-twitch muscles.
Injuries have contributed as well, but his development has been slow enough that he’s now being pushed by a new wave of prospects. His early career path is what the Royals don’t want to happen to their current prospects.
Their jobs and the remaining trust of fans depend on it, and after one more mention about the importance of patience, Yost is ready to drop that bomb and spit in the face of uncertainty.
“All I can tell you is just watch,” he says. “There’s no way around it. There’s no way that it can’t happen.”
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People like to point to Tampa Bay as proof that baseball turnarounds can happen quickly, but it’s easy to miss that the building plan that eventually put the Rays in the 2008 World Series can be traced back at least eight years.
Same with the Twins. They lost for six straight seasons in general manager Terry Ryan’s building plan before competing.
Here’s an imperfect but telling way to do it: Look at the careers of the players who finished in the top 10 in Cy Young or MVP voting in either league last year.
There are some instant stars like Evan Longoria and Albert Pujols, but there are also longer paths like with Jayson Werth and Delmon Young. On average, this group had what you might subjectively call breakout seasons a little more than five years after signing and a little less than three years after debuting in the big leagues.
Taken in that context, Mike Moustakas ? technically Moore’s first draft pick ? would be expected to debut next season and break out in 2015.
As a group, the Royals’ prospects are generally moving faster than most. But there is still some waiting and hoping to do before knowing if this thing will work.
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The Royals know what you think, and they understand why you think it. This franchise has lost for too long, the misery going further and deeper than can be justified by baseball’s economics.
Fans have been told about “prospects” and “youth movements” before, and here we are, 2011 and prepping for what will almost certainly be a 16th losing season in 17 years. Moore’s catchword ? Process ? is now an established joke among some fans, you know, like, the Royals are processing themselves into last place again.
“There is no doubt,” Moore says, “that it’s easier to be patient when you’re winning at the major-league level.”
There is an element of Moore paying for the sins of how the Royals operated in the past, but to talk too much about that would be to give Moore cover for his own significant mistakes.
Most notably, he’s been atrocious at building any kind of traction with the big-league roster.
Other than Joakim Soria and perhaps Gil Meche ? before then-manager Trey Hillman pitched him to the disabled list, anyway ? most every move at the big-league level has turned rotten.
The Royals lost 93 games in Moore’s first full season and 95 more last year, so in some ways, it is counterintuitive to believe a leadership group so incapable of noticeable progress in the majors can make all this wretchedness go away with college-aged kids now playing in Arkansas or Omaha.
“It’s tempting for us, too,” Royals minor-league director J.J. Picollo says. “There’s times you think, ‘This guy (in the minors) is better than that guy (in the majors), let’s take him up.’ But we’ve come so far in 4 1/2 years, you want to keep your focus.”
These are good talking points, and it all makes sense, but it is being done in the calm and hope of spring training. The metaphorical bullets start flying later this week, and you wonder what might happen if the Royals start out 11-28 or something.
Will you send emails demanding that the Northwest Arkansas pitching staff be promoted?
Will you call talk radio shows saying this is all just Glass’s latest con?
More important, with what virtually everyone in baseball sees as a ready-made contender with the proper care, will the men in charge unwittingly torpedo the whole thing by moving it along too quickly?
The fun part will come later, when Hosmer and Wil Myers are hitting home runs into fountains.
But maybe the more important part comes now, when the Royals decide how long they can wait to make them try.