Interesting on coaches and timing

[chito_and_leon]

Interesting when we think about how much we know about what Frank will do here. I suspect 90% of the time the first 3 years tell you what the rest will be like but it’s not always that way.

“
Plus, Villanova had been average at best in his first three seasons, with zero NCAA tournament appearances. Fans started to get antsy, and some questioned whether he was the right coach for the job.

Wright has acknowledged previously he knew he was on the hot seat going into the 2004-05 season. But then the Wildcats started winning, making NCAA tournaments and eventually the 2009 Final Four, a building block that helped get the Wildcats to this point.”

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ther-villanova-wildcats-national-championship

 

[TU_BLA]

Interesting when we think about how much we know about what Frank will do here. I suspect 90% of the time the first 3 years tell you what the rest will be like but it’s not always that way.

“
Plus, Villanova had been average at best in his first three seasons, with zero NCAA tournament appearances. Fans started to get antsy, and some questioned whether he was the right coach for the job.

Wright has acknowledged previously he knew he was on the hot seat going into the 2004-05 season. But then the Wildcats started winning, making NCAA tournaments and eventually the 2009 Final Four, a building block that helped get the Wildcats to this point.”

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ther-villanova-wildcats-national-championship

Fans, and especially boosters, want immediate returns for their investments. It's unfortunate. There are some baby boomers and their parents who have built hefty little nest eggs with some faith in patience with their investments. Villanova's patience has certainly paid off. They have a great coach...one who seems to be playing by the rules, recruits high character guys who are also intellectually adept, and they can play some good basketball. How many one and done's has Villanova had over the last 8-10 years. Far less than Kentucky and North Carolina. Only North Carolina has more championships in that stretch. Worst thing to come out of Villanova since Jay Wright has been coach is crying piccolo player.

Build the program the right way. Have a little patience. I was OK with how long we gave DW to build his program...but no marked improvements the last 2-3 years of that and you have to move on. I'm OK with giving Frank 2-3 more years to keep building and as long as there is improvement and growth, I'm OK with that.

 

[astonmartin708]

He did have 3 NIT appearances in his first three seasons though. That was enough to put him in the hot seat.

Also he had a track record of steadily improving a program since his Hofstra team ended up going NIT, NCAA, NCAA after being abysmal before he took over.

Not sure it's easy to draw a true comparison between him and Frank.

 

[chito_and_leon]

He did have 3 NIT appearances in his first three seasons though. That was enough to put him in the hot seat.

Also he had a track record of steadily improving a program since his Hofstra team ended up going NIT, NCAA, NCAA after being abysmal before he took over.

Not sure it's easy to draw a true comparison between him and Frank.

That wasn’t at all the point. The point is - are the first 3 years predictive of what comes later? Can you tell with certainty what level of success a coach will have based on the first 3 years. My guess is, usually. But not always. It’s possible for there to be a big improvement over those first 3 years. Is there reason to think Haith will have that? IDK, but any suggestion that his future is foretold by the first 3 years is not factual.

 

[PhoggyBottom]

I think you can tell whether a guy can coach (x's and o's) in the first three years. I don't think you can get a solid read on whether a guy can recruit to a particular program until year 5. The offseason before first year is usually a lost recruiting year. I don't think a coach necessarily knows what type of recruits are the proper targets for a program until the offseason after his second year.

 

[astonmartin708]

That wasn’t at all the point. The point is - are the first 3 years predictive of what comes later? Can you tell with certainty what level of success a coach will have based on the first 3 years. My guess is, usually. But not always. It’s possible for there to be a big improvement over those first 3 years. Is there reason to think Haith will have that? IDK, but any suggestion that his future is foretold by the first 3 years is not factual.

I think it's a lot easier to tell based on a coach's previous track record at other schools. Also, Haith just finished year 4 and he's moving onto year 5. By this time Wright had 3 NIT's and a Sweet 16 appearance under his belt. Haith has an NIT and a first round NCAA appearance. In his 5th year Wright got all the way to the Elite 8. Let's see if we get anywhere close to that before making any assertions that you can or can't judge a coach based on X amount of time.

 

[chito_and_leon]

I think it's a lot easier to tell based on a coach's previous track record at other schools. Also, Haith just finished year 4 and he's moving onto year 5. By this time Wright had 3 NIT's and a Sweet 16 appearance under his belt. Haith has an NIT and a first round NCAA appearance. In his 5th year Wright got all the way to the Elite 8. Let's see if we get anywhere close to that before making any assertions that you can or can't judge a coach based on X amount of time.

As I said before (though apparently not slowly enough) the point isn’t to equate Haith and Wright but rather to note that coaches can improve after the first several years, sometimes a lot. It’s not black or white, it’s probabilities, what’s the odds a coach will get much better results in the future? With each passing year, the odds of different results go down. Haith is performing at pretty much exactly his career level so I suspect what we see is what we get. But there’s a non-zero chance that he’ll improve and it’s not irratione or completely defeatist to suggest he get more time. I understand that position. For you the world is all black and white and sharp angles and that’s not the way the world really is.

 

[chito_and_leon]

I think you can tell whether a guy can coach (x's and o's) in the first three years. I don't think you can get a solid read on whether a guy can recruit to a particular program until year 5. The offseason before first year is usually a lost recruiting year. I don't think a coach necessarily knows what type of recruits are the proper targets for a program until the offseason after his second year.

On the Xs and Os, certainly with a guy who’s been a head coach before. I think it can take 3 or 4 years in some cases with a guy who’s never been in charge.

 

[astonmartin708]

As I said before (though apparently not slowly enough) the point isn’t to equate Haith and Wright but rather to note that coaches can improve after the first several years, sometimes a lot. It’s not black or white, it’s probabilities, what’s the odds a coach will get much better results in the future? With each passing year, the odds of different results go down. Haith is performing at pretty much exactly his career level so I suspect what we see is what we get. But there’s a non-zero chance that he’ll improve and it’s not irratione or completely defeatist to suggest he get more time. I understand that position. For you the world is all black and white and sharp angles and that’s not the way the world really is.

All you're saying is that there's a chance a coach will do better than his first few performances. I suppose that's a fine assumption to make. But we can clearly see that a guy like Wrights' "base level" for his first 4 years was much better than Haith's "base level" Haith hasn't yet shown he deserves more time. Even Wright was on the hotseat after 3 years and he got to the postseason all three. By #4 he was in the sweet 16. That's a good way to get an extension. Missing the postseason completely for two years after only slightly above average performances the two years before isn't a great way to do so.

 

[seniorgolfer]

I think it's a lot easier to tell based on a coach's previous track record at other schools.
Also, Haith just finished year 4 and he's moving onto year 5. By this time Wright had 3
NIT's and a Sweet 16 appearance under his belt. Haith has an NIT and a first round
NCAA appearance. In his 5th year Wright got all the way to the Elite 8. Let's see if we
get anywhere close to that before making any assertions that you can or can't judge
a coach based on X amount of time.

Results at his past schools are important, as is the direction that those results took
over time....

A really important aspect of coaching, particularly for a School like TU with a small
Alumni group and relatively small fan base is the coach's ability to hire and retain
good recruiters....Haith has hired a couple (Schwartz and English), but they were
gone almost before they got settled in....Given the so-so quality of the incoming
2018 class, which is the first for the present set of assistants, our immediate trend
beyond the 2018-2019 season might not project as being too bright.....

 

[cmullinsTU]

Interesting when we think about how much we know about what Frank will do here. I suspect 90% of the time the first 3 years tell you what the rest will be like but it’s not always that way.

“
Plus, Villanova had been average at best in his first three seasons, with zero NCAA tournament appearances. Fans started to get antsy, and some questioned whether he was the right coach for the job.

Wright has acknowledged previously he knew he was on the hot seat going into the 2004-05 season. But then the Wildcats started winning, making NCAA tournaments and eventually the 2009 Final Four, a building block that helped get the Wildcats to this point.”

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ther-villanova-wildcats-national-championship

Very similar story to Coach K. He was very close to being fired after his 3rd season at Duke. The AD there at the time trusted in him and well that turned out very well for Duke.

Obviously, that’s an exception not the rule but it is crazy to think Coach K almost didn’t make it at Duke but instead just completed his 37th overall season at Duke.

 

[chito_and_leon]

All you're saying is that there's a chance a coach will do better than his first few performances. I suppose that's a fine assumption to make.

The point isn’t that I’m saying it but rather that there are actual examples of it, it’s not just my opinion. And of course that it contradicts the point you’ve made, uhh, once or twice that it can’t happen and that anyone who thinks that is ok with losing.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

All you're saying is that there's a chance a coach will do better than his first few performances. I suppose that's a fine assumption to make. But we can clearly see that a guy like Wrights' "base level" for his first 4 years was much better than Haith's "base level" Haith hasn't yet shown he deserves more time. Even Wright was on the hotseat after 3 years and he got to the postseason all three. By #4 he was in the sweet 16. That's a good way to get an extension. Missing the postseason completely for two years after only slightly above average performances the two years before isn't a great way to do so.

Totally missed the point and focused on what he always wants to focus on.

 

[astonmartin708]

The point isn’t that I’m saying it but rather that there are actual examples of it, it’s not just my opinion. And of course that it contradicts the point you’ve made, uhh, once or twice that it can’t happen and that anyone who thinks that is ok with losing.

For each example like Wright or Coach K I can give you ten examples of guys who were at schools too long and did little to nothing and their first 3 years foretold of that.

Add to that, that Wright's first three years weren't actually bad. Postseason every year while dealing with a program left in the mire by the previous coach as well as a player scandal that caused kids to be suspended for games. It's the difference between a guy taking over a team. Wright took over for Lapas who underperformed in his last few years and didn't leave a ton in the cupboard for Wright. Haith took over an NCAA tournament team with kids that were high in the freshman record books for Tulsa and then went to the NCAA's.

By his second year Wright already had recruited a Freshman that would go on to the NBA. (Foye) Dont act like Wrights first 3 seasons were bad.

 

[chito_and_leon]

For each example like Wright or Coach K I can give you ten examples of guys who were at schools too long and did little to nothing and their first 3 years foretold of that.

Add to that, that Wright's first three years weren't actually bad. Postseason every year while dealing with a program left in the mire by the previous coach as well as a player scandal that caused kids to be suspended for games. It's the difference between a guy taking over a team. Wright took over for Lapas who underperformed in his last few years and didn't leave a ton in the cupboard for Wright. Haith took over an NCAA tournament team with kids that were high in the freshman record books for Tulsa and then went to the NCAA's.

By his second year Wright already had recruited a Freshman that would go on to the NBA. (Foye) Dont act like Wrights first 3 seasons were bad.

As I said before (though apparently not slowly enough) the point isn’t to equate Haith and Wright but rather to note that coaches can improve after the first several years, sometimes a lot. It’s not black or white, it’s probabilities, what’s the odds a coach will get much better results in the future? With each passing year, the odds of different results go down. Haith is performing at pretty much exactly his career level so I suspect what we see is what we get. But there’s a non-zero chance that he’ll improve and it’s not irratione or completely defeatist to suggest he get more time. I understand that position. For you the world is all black and white and sharp angles and that’s not the way the world really is.

 

[TU_BLA]

He did have 3 NIT appearances in his first three seasons though. That was enough to put him in the hot seat.

Also he had a track record of steadily improving a program since his Hofstra team ended up going NIT, NCAA, NCAA after being abysmal before he took over.

Not sure it's easy to draw a true comparison between him and Frank.

I'm not comparing them...I'm saying you need to be patient. And in that iteration of the Big East, it was deep and insanely good. I don't remember the exact circumstances that Wright took over at Villanova, but if he took over from Lappas, then he took over a soft team. And it seems that things picked up right when his first class would have been seniors...look at that.

 

[TU_BLA]

To the point that has been made...when did this truly become Haith's team? His 2nd year he had 1 player on the team he recruited. Everyone else was a Manning holdover. They were great players but they were built to play a different way. In that vein, last year would have been the 1st with all of Haith's players...and this could almost be considered year 2. And from "year 1 to year 2" we saw a lot of improvement, better defense, increased scoring, etc. in a conference where everyone else is also raising their game. Is TU where they want to be yet? Of course not. The coaches know that, the fans know that. No one is saying this is good enough...but I've seen a lot worse. And we're trending better than SMU is at the moment so we've got that...and we don't have Jankovich which is a blessing. His x's and o's skills may be Dement-level bad.

 

[astonmartin708]

To the point that has been made...when did this truly become Haith's team? His 2nd year he had 1 player on the team he recruited. Everyone else was a Manning holdover. They were great players but they were built to play a different way. In that vein, last year would have been the 1st with all of Haith's players...and this could almost be considered year 2. And from "year 1 to year 2" we saw a lot of improvement, better defense, increased scoring, etc. in a conference where everyone else is also raising their game. Is TU where they want to be yet? Of course not. The coaches know that, the fans know that. No one is saying this is good enough...but I've seen a lot worse. And we're trending better than SMU is at the moment so we've got that...and we don't have Jankovich which is a blessing. His x's and o's skills may be Dement-level bad.

His second year he brought in 4 players he recruited. Taplin, Birt, Brown, and Etou. It was his team from then on. Just because he only could grab one decent freshman isn't an excuse to say he wasn't able to recruit any of his guys.

 

[TU 1978]

His second year he brought in 4 players he recruited. Taplin, Birt, Brown, and Etou. It was his team from then on. Just because he only could grab one decent freshman isn't an excuse to say he wasn't able to recruit any of his guys.

A delusional response as usual.

 

[astonmartin708]

A delusional response as usual.

? Bla said he only brought in one kid during his second year. That wasn't true. He brought in 4. A third of the scholarship players on the team that year were his recruits. I think that is certainly early enough for someone's track record to start.

 

[TU_BLA]

? Bla said he only brought in one kid during his second year. That wasn't true. He brought in 4. A third of the scholarship players on the team that year were his recruits. I think that is certainly early enough for someone's track record to start.

OK. Partially right. He had one FR who played. One transfer who didn't play (Etou), one FR who didn't play, and Birt who played a whole bunch and was a key contributor. But be honest, Birt was the only player in that group brought in to contribute that season.

I am not advocating for or against Haith at this point mostly because I think any assessment is somewhat incomplete when taking it out of context. All I know is the team improved from under .500 last year to over .500 and somewhat exceeding almost all of our expectations this year. Most fans should expect more next year and I think that's fair.

 

[astonmartin708]

OK. Partially right. He had one FR who played. One transfer who didn't play (Etou), one FR who didn't play, and Birt who played a whole bunch and was a key contributor. But be honest, Birt was the only player in that group brought in to contribute that season.

I am not advocating for or against Haith at this point mostly because I think any assessment is somewhat incomplete when taking it out of context. All I know is the team improved from under .500 last year to over .500 and somewhat exceeding almost all of our expectations this year. Most fans should expect more next year and I think that's fair.

I know people will point to "balancing the classes" but he didn't have to bring in transfers / jucos. He (theoretically) could have gone with younger kids who were high level which is partially the way that Wright went when he was able to grab Top 100 players in Randy Foye, Allan Ray, and Curtis Sumpter. Those guys ended up being leaders on the Villanova team that went to the Elite 8.

I'm not insinuating Haith would have been able to grab that kind of recruiting class... but that's partially why Wright was able to build a quality program while having a rough start. He had highly talented young kids that he was developing. All we have from Haith's first couple years in terms of developed players is Taplin after that it's Igbanu.

 

[goldenhurricane2]

I think we may be about to see something interesting happen at TU... could be nothing, but it definitely could be something. A smart move by Haith.

 

[TU_BLA]

I think we may be about to see something interesting happen at TU... could be nothing, but it definitely could be something. A smart move by Haith.

I feel like all your posts could be the basis for the next National Treasure movie...so damn cryptic

 

[goldenhurricane2]

I feel like all your posts could be the basis for the next National Treasure movie...so damn cryptic

Haha I’m sure you’ll hear the first part of this today or tomorrow at the latest.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Haha I’m sure you’ll hear the first part of this today or tomorrow at the latest.

You do realize if the first part isn't Rod, and the second part isn't the Boone twins, that comment could be lynching material.

 

[cmullinsTU]

I feel like all your posts could be the basis for the next National Treasure movie...so damn cryptic

Quick! His next clue is under the steps that lead up to McFarlin!!!!!1111

 

[TU_BLA]

Haha I’m sure you’ll hear the first part of this today or tomorrow at the latest.

On this site or should I be refreshing my twitter feed every 30 seconds?

 

[astonmartin708]

Quick! His next clue is under the steps that lead up to McFarlin!!!!!1111

I'm going to steal the Declaration of Independence.

 

[TU_BLA]

I'm going to steal the Declaration of Independence.

Already been done...come up with something more original like kidnapping Haith and Coach K and swapping their faces

 

[chito_and_leon]

I think we may be about to see something interesting happen at TU... could be nothing, but it definitely could be something. A smart move by Haith.

You can always tell when GH2 hits up Panda Express for dinner, he posts his fortune on here the next day.

 

[cmullinsTU]

You can always tell when GH2 hits up Panda Express for dinner, he posts his fortune on here the next day.

He forgot to add everyone's favorite part of fortune cookie rules, you in the fortune with "... in bed"... So

"I think we may be about to see something interesting happen at TU... could be nothing, but it definitely could be something. A smart move by Haith... in bed."

And this thread somehow just got even more interesting, without any extra facts.

 

[Li'l Eric Coley]

Already been done...come up with something more original like kidnapping Haith and Coach K and swapping their faces

I'm Castor Troy! I'm Castor Troy!

 

[TU_BLA]

Nicolas Cage really gets too many roles in movies

 

[cmullinsTU]

Since we are talking Nicolas Cage and there's a long-standing thread about Game of Thrones in General Interest, I give to you Cage as the entire case of GoT!

 

[goldenhurricane2]

LOL glad to see the board got a little more active today over this. All I can say for sure is that there will be a change to the coaching staff. As far as anything after that, I can’t share.

As it is with everything in this business, nothing is final until the fat lady sings.

 

[nevadanatural]

He really should have been the night king.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

He really should have been the night king.

I don't know. He makes a pretty good Brienne of Tarth.

 

[astonmartin708]

LOL glad to see the board got a little more active today over this. All I can say for sure is that there will be a change to the coaching staff. As far as anything after that, I can’t share.

As it is with everything in this business, nothing is final until the fat lady sings.

If this is something like a DOBO change we're going to come after you.

 

[cmullinsTU]

If this is something like a DOBO change we're going to come after you.

I fully support this statement.