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Corona virus prevention

Watu3

I.T.S. Senior
Nov 17, 2017
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Date: February 26, 2020 at 2:35:50 PM EST

Subject: What I am doing for the upcoming COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic

Dear Colleagues,


As some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources.


The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.


Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:

1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.

2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.

3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.

5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.

6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.

7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!


What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:

1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.

Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon.

This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it.

Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available.

I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share.


Good luck to all of us!

James Robb, MD FCAP
 
Literally what i do everyday regardless of covid19. And teach my kids to do. This is basic hand hygeine practice.
 
Literally what i do everyday regardless of covid19. And teach my kids to do. This is basic hand hygeine practice.
Response was meant to be directed to WATU

Remind my never to argue medical stuff with you.

I do many of those things already. At the gym I use the disinfectant wipe, but I am going to do a more through job. BTW, the back of the hand on light switches also cut down on annoying static shocks.

I was a chemist and the first thing you learn is to wash your hands before and after going to the bathroom. Some of that stuff can burn. I also use a paper towels on the doorknob and practice my free throws with it. A few places put a trash can by the door. If we stay at high alert they will probably get the idea. .

Thanks WA.
 
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Just a heads up on what you might expect if the Corona virus heads your way.

As we live in King County, Washington home of the corona virus infected senior living home where 10 people have died, life here is beginning to resemble what it may be like to live in Wuhan. From what some tells us, San Francisco is following the same path. I arrived back from a trip Saturday night to tales of panic exemplified by long lines running out the doors at every Costco, Sams Club and similar store in the area. On Sunday morning we found grocery store and drug store shelves stripped of toilet paper, bottled water, canned soups, and every possible disinfectant solution or device you can think of. Masks have been unavailable for weeks. Amazon, Microsoft and an increasing number of companies have told employees to work from home and many local schools have shut down. Everyday a new death or two is reported, the number of reported infections increases, and the number of cancelled events rises.

The big change here will be when large scale testing starts and the infected can be separated and isolated from the uninfected early on. As US testing was initially nonexistent, DNA testing indicates that the virus was circulating in the area for many weeks before the initial outbreak. That makes it hard to trace who and how many were exposed. At the moment everyone is a bit suspect, and efforts to limit contagion are limited by the lack of information that large scale testing could provide. Testing is ramping up but it's still limited and very late in the game.

Today's NYTimes had an article indicating that China's severe public health actions have sharply reduced the virus' spread, but those large scale public health actions would be hard to replicate in the US for cultural, political (aka Trump and Pence) and funding reasons.

Interesting times indeed.
 
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Doubt testing has much effect. Most of the infected are contagious before the onset of signs of illness. Many others the virus is mild and likely won’t result in a trip to the doctor. My guess there are thousands already infected in the US. Many are undiagnosed. Unless your > 70 or have other issues it appears the risk is quite limited.
 
As we live in King County, Washington home of the corona virus infected senior living home where 10 people have died, life here is beginning to resemble what it may be like to live in Wuhan.

That's nothing like Wuhan, everyone there is under a mandatory quarantine. One person per family is allowed to leave their house, per week on an assigned day, to get food from the market.

That being said, I hope you and yours remaing healthy in King County .
 
My views of testing are largely influenced by a classmate who was with the CDC before starting several successful biotech companies. He and his colleagues are very critical of the 1) loss of expertise at the CDC since Trump 2) the containment approach being used and 3) the continued delays in large scale testing. They think the CDC will get things right, but are concerned that Trump's political views are interfering with science based decision making.
 
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So far this season, influenza B has killed up to 30,000 people in th U.S. Coronavirus has been around in many mutations for decades. If you are otherwise healthy, it is a minor illness. It is time to get some perspective.
 
So far this season, influenza B has killed up to 30,000 people in th U.S. Coronavirus has been around in many mutations for decades. If you are otherwise healthy, it is a minor illness. It is time to get some perspective.

So maybe you and Rush Limbaugh are right, it's just the common cold and not anything to worry about. That would be great! But the data suggests otherwise. Either way we'll find out.

No one knows at this point exactly how this plays out, there could be a wide range of outcomes. What we do know is that it is more contagious than the flu, the death rates are higher (1-2% vs. 0.1%), and there is no vaccine or treatment for it yet beyond one's own immune system. Unlike the flu, one is contagious weeks before symptoms appear making tracking and containment harder. The treatments and vaccines now in trials are a year to 18 months away.

Unknowns include 1) will warm weather cut contagion like a cold (yes!) and 2) will the virus mutate annually like the flu?

Even if it is just another version of the flu, previous versions of the flu have been far more deadly than in recent years. And as you point out, the flu routinely kills tens of thousands every year. Do we just accept another group of deaths of the same size?
 
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It’s sad you make it political. I would respond, but I’m no going to bother. Oh and btw I’m a healthcare provider; I spend my days in one of 135 nursing homes I provide care in. I’m closer to the frontlines than you or your articles you like to quote will ever be. SARS, MERS, avian, bird, swine flu. Take your pick.
 
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WATU what is wrong with you? Why do you suggest that Kendall is blowing this off as no threat?

Let's see over 60. I'm 73.
Past medical history. Had a mild heart attack and stents several years ago. Some other medical issues.
Case now in Tulsa County.
I'm taking it serious but not going to panic. Or blame anyone.

I'm wondering why the experts keep stressing soap and water to the exclusion of hand sanitizers. You see them in hospitals. When I am going several places, I don't take soap and water and a towel. The gym I go to has sanitizers stations and towelettes with disinfectant. Resors grocery has a sanitizer at the front door. I take a small bottle of the stuff. Why go to a restroom when you don't need to and on the road restrooms are not always pristine.
 
I’m not sure there’s really much we can do regarding the spread of this (outside of the actions China took) which will be effective. The first case has now been diagnosed in Tulsa btw. There will be many more. I anticipate the mortality rate here in the US to be in the range of .5%. That figure us based on South Korea which is probably are best data to date.

TUMe....be careful buddy. Like I just told my parents, try to weather this out.

I was hoping we could keep politics out of a crisis such as this. Sadly, I was wrong.
 
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It’s sad you make it political. I would respond, but I’m no going to bother. Oh and btw I’m a healthcare provider; I spend my days in one of 135 nursing homes I provide care in. I’m closer to the frontlines than you or your articles you like to quote will ever be. SARS, MERS, avian, bird, swine flu. Take your pick.
Seriously. Its always the people from behind their computers without any knowledge of what actual happens in healthcare sertings that try to teach us what to do. I work in the operating room every week and my wife in the ICU. We arent worried about it. We take the necessary precautions (wash hands) and move on with life. But i get it its trumps fault...but if thats the case...the ebols crisis was obamas...and that was much scarier than this.
 
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Today's NYTimes had an article indicating that China's severe public health actions have sharply reduced the virus' spread, but those large scale public health actions would be hard to replicate in the US for cultural, political (aka Trump and Pence) and funding reasons.

Yes, we will not be ripping people from their loved ones and loading them into boxes in the back of trucks. The communists are admittedly much better at that
 
Is the source of this article @big_pp
——
US hospitals preparing for HALF A MILLION deaths, leaked papers show

Almost half a million (480,000) Americans are expected to die from coronavirus

4.8 million will be hospitalized and 96 million infected

Figures come from leaked slides from a presentation by Dr. James Lawler, a University of Nebraska Medical Center professor and hosted by AHA

https://apple.news/A69-b_rw-QMia3eL61yTU_w
 
WATU what is wrong with you? Why do you suggest that Kendall is blowing this off.
It’s sad you make it political. I would respond, but I’m no going to bother. Oh and btw I’m a healthcare provider; I spend my days in one of 135 nursing homes I provide care in. I’m closer to the frontlines than you or your articles you like to quote will ever be. SARS, MERS, avian, bird, swine flu. Take your pick.

My “articles” are actually people—doctors and CDC/biotech execs—who know the science and epidemiology and like Henry are deeply involved. As I posted, there is a range of possible outcomes and we will see.

What I can tell you for sure is how the arrival of this virus has affected life in Seattle and San Francisco which are farther down the experiential curve.

As for politicizing this, https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...presidents-bipartisan-meeting-on-coronavirus/
 
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Agree. Sad to see the Washington Governor making political statements regarding this crisis. Following the example of some our posters :(.

We can test all we want but outside of draconian quarantines ala China there is little we can do to curb the spread. Criticism at this point is purely political. Time to devote resources into caring for those millions of people who will get sick in the next few months. This country needs to come unite at this time.
 
Agree. Sad to see the Washington Governor making political statements regarding this crisis. Following the example of some our posters :(.
.

Inslee comments were about the government's slow response in testing. Advocating for the state is his job. His comments were consistent with those from the medical community. Pence was publicly complimentary about Inslee's work when Pence visited this week which angered Trump into a low class, personal attack. Continually amazed at the lengths some posts will go to support Trump's infantile behavior.

Testing is still key to dealing with the virus. S. Korea is testing over 10,000 people a day while the US as a nation cannot get close to that yet. Worse, even when tests become more widely available many people without health insurance or high deductibles will not get tested even when they have symptoms because the cost, lack of sick leave, or inability to pay for treatment. China has made testing free. If someone has the virus, from that point on their treatment and care are free. Those are the kinds of steps that have enabled China to reduce the rate of spread by 2/3's.
 
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I'm wondering why the experts keep stressing soap and water to the exclusion of hand sanitizers. You see them in hospitals.
.

Although thorough hand washing with soap and water is better, alcohol based sanitizers are cheap and easier to station in many locations. Sanitizers have to have at least 60% alcohol. Some bacteria (C-diff gut bacteria for example) are not affected by alcohol.

If you have seen surgeons or OR staff prepare for surgery they spend a lot of time washing their hands instead of just squeezing on sanitizers. Or I hope they do if I'm their patient.
 
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Inslee comments were about the government's slow response in testing. Advocating for the state is his job. His comments were consistent with those from the medical community. Pence was publicly complimentary about Inslee's work when Pence visited this week which angered Trump into a low class, personal attack. Continually amazed at the lengths some posts will go to support Trump's infantile behavior.

Testing is still key to dealing with the virus. S. Korea is testing over 10,000 people a day while the US as a nation cannot get close to that yet. Worse, even when tests become more widely available many people without health insurance or high deductibles will not get tested even when they have symptoms because the cost, lack of sick leave, or inability to pay for treatment. China has made testing free. If someone has the virus, from that point on their treatment and care are free. Those are the kinds of steps that have enabled China to reduce the rate of spread by 2/3's.

Inslee made it political by calling out Trump as opposed to the CDC or members of Congress (both parties) for not appropriating money earlier.

China was greatly helped by the forced mass quarantine of hundreds of millions of people. Testing is fine but unless you are willing to set up forced quarantines like China it won’t be effective. We won’t take those steps.

Tests in the US are free btw. We just need more of them. I have yet to see a reasonable explanation as to why the CDC didn’t have thousands of these ready to go.

This virus is going to spread rapidly throughout the world. Humans have zero immunity to this thing and it’s highly contagious. The government is currently working on making large buildings available to mass treat the sick.
 
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I thought seattle and san fran were dem strongholds....why is that trumps fault.
The Chinese have put entire cities on quarantine. Shut down entire industries and have literally allowed travel only to the grocery store in some places. Also, they take your temperature before going into the grocery store and force you to go home if you are running a fever. Police make random house calls to make sure you are observing the quarantine.

None of this is Trump’s fault, of course, but I do agree that the US lacks the political will to take such measures.
 
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I don't usually advocate something like this. But if it were to reach the levels it has reached in China, I'm not so sure I would have a problem with similar temporary policies.(only in the center of majorly affected areas)

If it could save as many lives on that magnitude, I would consider giving up some of my rights temporarily. Only in an instance such as this would it possibly be the right move. I reserve the right to later change my mind...

There should always be great trepidation at giving up those rights, temporary or not.
 
Although thorough hand washing with soap and water is better, alcohol based sanitizers are cheap and easier to station in many locations. Sanitizers have to have at least 60% alcohol. Some bacteria (C-diff gut bacteria for example) are not affected by alcohol.

If you have seen surgeons or OR staff prepare for surgery they spend a lot of time washing their hands instead of just squeezing on sanitizers. Or I hope they do if I'm their patient.
I agree that soap and water are probably better. But as I pointed out soap and water are not always handy. Yes on 60 percent having to be at least 60%. I use one that is 70% Et-Oh. There is nothing wrong with having both available. I wash my hands if possible. Imagine the Rose Bowl at half time with 100,000 people standing in line for soap and water. Also they tell us wear a mask oh wait, just sneeze on the inside of your elbow. They tell us that masks can make it worse. But they all wear them, plus a lot more protecting equipment. I glad they do.

But I go into surgery only as the victim. We have one (1) confirmed case in Tulsa county. A 50 year old who return from Italy. I doubt it will stay that low. My point about what to use should be summarized "Use the best thing available. When soap and water is not available use what is." Full containment is nice for some things. You see response teams in full gear on TV now. Even more for IDLH.

But again, everyone isn't always handy to soap and water. A small bottle of 70 percent ethanol based hand cleaner is worth the investment.
 
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Consistent with what my friends in the healthcare and biotech industry have been saying for weeks.

Data point: the senior center in King County with all the deaths just got enough testing kits to test all the residents yesterday. Wide scale testing is a long way in the future.

Bright spots: The Gates Foundation is working on a testing kit for the home. Take a swab at home and send it off for testing. Gilead is in stage 3 trials for a treatment. Initial results due in April. Gilead's reputation is very strong.
 
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None of this is Trump’s fault, of course, but I do agree that the US lacks the political will to take such measures.

Agreed. The economic price of the Chinese brute force approach is incredibly high and would be very tough to implement here.
 
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As I’ve said before, I’m all for testing. In home kits would be fantastic. The problem is people are contagious before any real symptoms appear. Widespread testing will likely slow the spread as those people are quarantined but it will only delay the inevitable by maybe a few weeks. Outside of forced lockdowns there’s not a lot we can do here in the US as well as the West. We will get through this but there’s going to be some great hardships in the next few months and numerous deaths of the old and compromised.
 
Consistent with what my friends in the healthcare and biotech industry have been saying for weeks.

Data point: the senior center in King County with all the deaths just got enough testing kits to test all the residents yesterday. Wide scale testing is a long way in the future.

Bright spots: The Gates Foundation is working on a testing kit for the home. Take a swab at home and send it off for testing. Gilead is in stage 3 trials for a treatment. Initial results due in April. Gilead's reputation is very strong.
Yeah, the testing situation is really outrageous. How is South Korea able to test pretty much everyone that so much as sneezes once, and yet we are struggling with managing a few hundred tests a whole month later? The CDC takes a lot of blame here for trying to develop their own test instead of using the test developed by the WHO.

I don’t know who made that call, so please don’t claim I am blaming Trump. It could have been a call from inside the administration, or some joker in the CDC whose cousin runs a testing lab that stood to profit. Don’t know, don’t care.

I think this disease is probably already spread across the nation. The incubation time is in weeks, and we’ve barely tested anyone and yet have hundreds of confirmed cases. There are probably people walking around incubating it in just about every major city in the nation.
 
Agreed the CDC screwed up on the tests, but they acknowledge it and have moved to fix. I'm told bad reagents were involved, but regardless, it was their call not to use the WHO test.

The Gates Foundation is sponsoring home testing kits in Seattle, and unbelievably they predicted that possibility of this getting our to control in a simulation they ran three months ago. Yes, it is a simulation, but it identified the potential magnitude of the risk.

https://coercioncode.com/2020/01/24...-million-deaths-via-coronavirus-3-months-ago/
 
Agreed the CDC screwed up on the tests, but they acknowledge it and have moved to fix. I'm told bad reagents were involved, but regardless, it was their call not to use the WHO test.

The Gates Foundation is sponsoring home testing kits in Seattle, and unbelievably they predicted that possibility of this getting our to control in a simulation they ran three months ago. Yes, it is a simulation, but it identified the potential magnitude of the risk.

https://coercioncode.com/2020/01/24...-million-deaths-via-coronavirus-3-months-ago/
Good lord I hope that simulation was inaccurate. That's definitely a minor culling of the Human race.
 
As I’ve said before, I’m all for testing. In home kits would be fantastic. The problem is people are contagious before any real symptoms appear. Widespread testing will likely slow the spread as those people are quarantined but it will only delay the inevitable by maybe a few weeks. Outside of forced lockdowns there’s not a lot we can do here in the US as well as the West. We will get through this but there’s going to be some great hardships in the next few months and numerous deaths of the old and compromised.
What if you are sexually compromised?
 
Agreed the CDC screwed up on the tests, but they acknowledge it and have moved to fix. I'm told bad reagents were involved, but regardless, it was their call not to use the WHO test.

The Gates Foundation is sponsoring home testing kits in Seattle, and unbelievably they predicted that possibility of this getting our to control in a simulation they ran three months ago. Yes, it is a simulation, but it identified the potential magnitude of the risk.

https://coercioncode.com/2020/01/24...-million-deaths-via-coronavirus-3-months-ago/
That's not far from 1% of the population. I guess it would have to be 78 million to make 1%.
 
Saw where an infected person purposely broke quarantine in Missouri. Should they be charged with reckless endangerment? Attempted murder? Manslaughter if the infect someone and that person dies?
 
I don't usually advocate something like this. But if it were to reach the levels it has reached in China, I'm not so sure I would have a problem with similar temporary policies.(only in the center of majorly affected areas)

If it could save as many lives on that magnitude, I would consider giving up some of my rights temporarily. Only in an instance such as this would it possibly be the right move. I reserve the right to later change my mind...

There should always be great trepidation at giving up those rights, temporary or not.

Temporarily giving up rights to the govt is like agreeing to a temporary sales tax... there is always another need, another crisis, that requires the money or the suspension of rights. Then one day, you wake up and the tax is permanent and we need a new temporary sales tax to pay for a new need (or the same need because of bureaucratic mismanagement). Similarly, those rights you gave up are gone and now the govt has a new crisis that requires a further suspension of other rights until incrementally they are all gone....
 
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Temporarily giving up rights to the govt is like agreeing to a temporary sales tax... there is always another need, another crisis, that requires the money or the suspension of rights. Then one day, you wake up and the tax is permanent and we need a new temporary sales tax to pay for a new need (or the same need because of bureaucratic mismanagement). Similarly, those rights you gave up are gone and now the govt has a new crisis that requires a further suspension of other rights until incrementally they are all gone....
I agree with you in principle. But it is now not just China and its authoritarian government that is doing massive quarantines. Italy has now quarantined over 16 million people.

I get what you are saying, but as a practical matter we have to draw a line at a medical quarantine to stop a dangerous plague. If you are more afraid of the government taking your rights away than a dangerous plague which is actually on our shores and can kill millions, then I would suggest you should re-evaluate your priorities.

I am not advocating mass quarantines in the US as of now. But if the need demonstrably arises, I will abide by one for the duration. I truly hope it doesn't come to that.
 
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