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Ukraine….what’s our endgame here

The Russians having “their own territory” immediately conquered from them would be pretty embarrassing
 
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The Russians having “their own territory” immediately conquered from them would be pretty embarrassing
So the question is... how far do we go in backing Ukraine once Russia annexes these oblasts like they did the Crimea?

My gut says Biden does his best Reverend Jim Ignatowski imitation and says " So.. Vlad, you say these lands are yours?.. well Okey Doke!!"
 
Lots of tough talk. Maybe a few sanctions. In the end these oblasts will be part of Russia and we will sit back and take it much like Crimea.
 
That would be a defeat for the West and NATO. Don’t see either signing off on such an arrangement.
I think the West and NATO are looking for a way out and this will give it to them..

Western Europe is ready to go back to cheap energy and US defense subsidies..

Bidens new platform can be "he kept us out of war"
 
So the question is... how far do we go in backing Ukraine once Russia annexes these oblasts like they did the Crimea?

My gut says Biden does his best Reverend Jim Ignatowski imitation and says " So.. Vlad, you say these lands are yours?.. well Okey Doke!!"
Right before that the republicans put possible support for 12B in aid for Ukraine on the table. Everyone is going to have to back down not just Biden.
 
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Biden doesn’t need a single Pub to agree to anything regarding a cease fire and agreement to allow Putin to keep those oblasts.
 
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I keep trying to think of a scenario that could end this and save face. Perhaps designating these border regions as autonomous with Ukranian sovereignty but demilitarized? And what of Crimea?
 
I keep trying to think of a scenario that could end this and save face. Perhaps designating these border regions as autonomous with Ukranian sovereignty but demilitarized? And what of Crimea?
Who knows what would work now. Ukraine would be unlikely to offer the same terms as they supposedly offered before. the invasion. Putin has a "saving face" problem. But your idea makes sense to those of us without skin in the game.

 
If his goal is domination at any cost this will be a long and bloody campaign that will likely take an assassination or revolution on one side or the other to finish.
 
I think that what I suggested is sort of an Option 3B to Friedman's piece. Perhaps I should join the diplomatic corps.
 
Putin apparently still has public support in Russia. The Ukraine's recent advances may not be widely known. He's likely living in a bit of bubble while creating a bubble for the Russian public.

I doubt that public support lasts much longer now that he has fully mobilized for war. Allegedly, ballerinas are being graffittied all around Moscow. The old Soviet propaganda channels had a tendency to show Swan Lake on a loop whenever there was a high ranking death or other event that forced them to do a media blackout while they constructed a narrative. It last happened in 1991 when there was an attempted coup against Gorbachev. It had previously happened when Brezhnev died while there was no clear successor, and on a couple of other similar occasions. The public subtly showing support for a modern "Swan Lake" moment is the interpretation.

Take any news from inside Russia with a grain of salt, but I can't imagine the public being supportive of martial law and conscription for a non-defensive war for very long.


I was also with lawpoke early on. I thought a massive show of force before the invasion might have dissuaded him from invading. It might have avoided all this, but give how determined we see he is in the face of adversity, maybe not.

However, I will continue to support our efforts to prop up the Ukrainian military. We have some long term support contracts drawn up now. Drones for delivery with circa 3 year delivery estimates. Money earmarked for two years from now, etc. Some portions of the aid packages are not immediate, but multi-year.

Allowing Russia to annex any portion of Ukraine will just invite him to do it again, and again, and again. As he has already shown in Crimea, Donbas, Georgia, Checnya, Ossetia... He will push the envelope until the West finally forces him to stop. Caving only kicks the can down the road and makes that eventual confrontation higher stakes when NATO is directly involved. If we cave, he will eventually come back and demand Kyiv. Then he will want the Baltics, or a piece of Poland. It might seem ridiculous, but an aggressive invasion of Ukraine seemed ridiculous only a year ago. He's been doing this for 20 years now, it is a pretty well established pattern with a clear goal towards reassembling the Russian Empire.
 
I doubt that public support lasts much longer now that he has fully mobilized for war. Allegedly, ballerinas are being graffittied all around Moscow. The old Soviet propaganda channels had a tendency to show Swan Lake on a loop whenever there was a high ranking death or other event that forced them to do a media blackout while they constructed a narrative. It last happened in 1991 when there was an attempted coup against Gorbachev. It had previously happened when Brezhnev died while there was no clear successor, and on a couple of other similar occasions. The public subtly showing support for a modern "Swan Lake" moment is the interpretation.

Take any news from inside Russia with a grain of salt, but I can't imagine the public being supportive of martial law and conscription for a non-defensive war for very long.


I was also with lawpoke early on. I thought a massive show of force before the invasion might have dissuaded him from invading. It might have avoided all this, but give how determined we see he is in the face of adversity, maybe not.

However, I will continue to support our efforts to prop up the Ukrainian military. We have some long term support contracts drawn up now. Drones for delivery with circa 3 year delivery estimates. Money earmarked for two years from now, etc. Some portions of the aid packages are not immediate, but multi-year.

Allowing Russia to annex any portion of Ukraine will just invite him to do it again, and again, and again. As he has already shown in Crimea, Donbas, Georgia, Checnya, Ossetia... He will push the envelope until the West finally forces him to stop. Caving only kicks the can down the road and makes that eventual confrontation higher stakes when NATO is directly involved. If we cave, he will eventually come back and demand Kyiv. Then he will want the Baltics, or a piece of Poland. It might seem ridiculous, but an aggressive invasion of Ukraine seemed ridiculous only a year ago. He's been doing this for 20 years now, it is a pretty well established pattern with a clear goal towards reassembling the Russian Empire.
One of the few times I've seen almost everybody agree on something on here.(Your post.) United we stand.


I personally don't like seeing Ukraine getting destroyed, because it would be an escalation to attack Russia. It's not really fair to Ukraine to be encapsulated into only attacking Russians on Ukrainian land. They've kept themselves to attacking only military bases with weapons and oil in Russia, and having to deny most of that. Being defensive only, is not a route to winning the war.

There is already incredible damage to Ukrainian cities, and virtually none to Russian cities.
 
One of the few times I've seen almost everybody agree on something on here.(Your post.) United we stand.


I personally don't like seeing Ukraine getting destroyed, because it would be an escalation to attack Russia. It's not really fair to Ukraine to be encapsulated into only attacking Russians on Ukrainian land. They've kept themselves to attacking only military bases with weapons and oil in Russia, and having to deny most of that. Being defensive only, is not a route to winning the war.

There is already incredible damage to Ukrainian cities, and virtually none to Russian cities.
This is a point very few are discussing. Even if Ukraine were to drive Russia out of the currently occupied territory, they have still suffered billions of dollars in damage to their cities. Damage which will take years to recover. Should Russia withdraw back Into its prior borders there will be many who proclaim a Ukrainian victory. I disagree with such assessment for the reasons given by Gmoney.

My current uneducated opinion: Putin wants the war to end but also needs to “annex” those eastern oblasts into Russia. He knows the only way Ukraine won’t tell him to pound sand is if the Russians are on the verge of a massive military victory. I expect one last push to the west by Putin toward Kiev. Hoping to place Ukraine in a position where they are willing to give up that eastern territory in order to save the rest of the country. I don’t believe Putin has the military power to accomplish such a move but I do believe that is his plan.
 
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New Gallup polling on the support for Ukraine in the US.


Republicans are significantly more likely to want Ukraine to Capitulate.

Why am I not surprised?
 
A couple of things. It seems Russian minorities might be taking this mobilization the way they were expected.

A Russian school was shot up by a "former pupil with a Nazi swastika on his shirt". I usually don't like tinfoil hat opinions, but with the FSB and its Putin-era history of false flags to justify military action you have to wonder if the Russian government just sacrificed kids to offset the protests. It happened at Izhevsk, which is home of Kalashnikov Concern HQ. A lot of Russians military hardware from AK rifles to drones comes from that town.
 
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A couple of things. It seems Russian minorities might be taking this mobilization the way they were expected.

A Russian school was shot up by a "former pupil with a Nazi swastika on his shirt". I usually don't like tinfoil hat opinions, but with the FSB and its Putin-era history of false flags to justify military action you have to wonder if the Russian government just sacrificed kids to offset the protests. It happened at Izhevsk, which is home of Kalashnikov Concern HQ.
I figure we will have a false flag op here a couple of weeks before the election...
 
Too bad Sean Hannity didn't say anything along those lines, the accusation would have been so much more believable with him over Carlson.
 
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Too bad Sean Hannity didn't say anything along those lines, the accusation would have been so much more believable with him over Carlson.
Doesn't change Biden's words.. original clip was ABC news... you're too hung up on the messenger..
 
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Doesn't change Biden's words.. original clip was ABC news... you're too hung up on the messenger..
I'm too hung up on that being out of character for Biden, and it being absolutely in character for Putin.(Taking huge risk for Biden & the US, which Biden would not do.)

Say hi to Q for me.
 
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I'm too hung up on that being out of character for Biden, and it being absolutely in character for Putin.(Taking huge risk for Biden & the US, which Biden would not do.)

Say hi to Q for me.
 
Can we do individual signatures for different quotes. Cuz crying laughing is obviously good for all Noble's quotes of me.(and at this point, me of him)

Biden is the evil boogeyman, the guy who would pull any stunt no matter the risk, as far as Noble is concerned.

Say hi to Q.
 
Can we do individual signatures for different quotes. Cuz crying laughing is obviously good for all Noble's quotes of me.(and at this point, me of him)

Biden is the evil boogeyman, the guy who would pull any stunt no matter the risk, as far as Noble is concerned.

Say hi to Q.
Yeah.. Biden is too mentally incapacitated to be the Boogeyman...
 
That statement was words in your mouth, not mine. But you diggin know that.
Maybe the Big Guy is so deluded that he thinks he really is Jack Ryan... or Peter Henderson..

 
Someone blew it up. Not saying it was us but this didn’t age well. Smart money still on Putin imo


 
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New Gallup polling on the support for Ukraine in the US.


Republicans are significantly more likely to want Ukraine to Capitulate.
Russia’s goal in running fake plebiscites in captured Ukraine territory is apparently to show progress to Russians and to claim the Ukraine is now attacking Russian soil. Given Putin’s recent nuke threats about attacking Russia directly, it’s an interesting tactic, even if the rest of the world doesn’t recognize the results.

 
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Russia’s goal in running fake plebiscites in captured Ukraine territory is apparently to show progress to Russians ..... it’s an interesting tactic, even if the rest of the world doesn’t recognize the results.
Give the world time... the ink isnt even dry yet...
 
I'm surprised that Putin has 'allowed' them to attack and make significant advances on 'Russian Land' since his 'acquisition' of said land. I thought that's what all the threats were over. Is he waiting on the military to get resupplied with troops? Waiting on the troop resupply to 'allow' him to retake land after the threat has been enacted? That will be a disaster waiting to happen.(for him) Or is he waiting for his sub that 'disappeared' to get in the right position to fire short range nukes?

He waits much longer and most of the land acquisition he has will be under attack or retaken by Ukraine.
 
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