He hasn't even finished with Ukraine, and he's already talking about a Nato country, and it isn't a Baltic State. Surprise, surprise, it was a part of the Russian Empire during the 19th century.
Ukraine….what’s our endgame here
- Thread starter lawpoke87
- Start date
After what we’ve seen from the Russian military are you worried about their ability to invade a NATO country ?
Not now. But it's going to be a persistent state of harassment that they will have to deal with. He will consistently test what actions against them he can get away with. And it is all part of what I perceive could end up in a WW 5-15 years from now. It's a new cold war, with increased threat of a hot war. It would be ignorant to ignore this threat. Just because it is not an immediately urgent threat doesn't excuse it from the threat list. And the more we end up giving aid to countries he threatens, the less getting out of Ukrainian support saves us.
Which re-enforces my position as to why it was a mistake to allow Putin to conduct a 10 month military buildup along the Ukraine border and then invade with little to zero resistance from the West. Same for Crimea. Putin is a bully. He bullied us into allowing him to take Crimea as well as eastern Ukraine. We didn’t learn from Crimea. Hopefully, we learn from Ukraine.
Again…I’m not advocating we abandon Ukraine. I’m suggesting two years into this war that we still lack a viable strategy for victory or for peace. We need one or the other. Russia wins the battle of attrition without western boots.
Any war on the continent of Europe in the next 5-15 years will end very poorly for Russia. NATO air power is decades ahead of Russia. Their ground assets and training are also subpar compared to the West. I’m much more worried about Taiwan as geography favors China.
Have I not emphasized enough yet, that it is not two separate problems. If there is a WW, it will not be with Russia alone. Some combination of China, Russia, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Turkey, Cuba, Hungary, Phillipines, Brazil, Venezuela, African nations, Egypt, India, will band together. No country, even China, would be foolish enough to start a war on it's own. Russia and China are at the forefront. They are the warning signs.
I don’t see any of those aforementioned countries being able to provide Russia sufficient assistance in the European theater to thwart the air onslaught of NATO. Do you ?
China and the pacific theater are the wild card. Does China want a military clash or are they ok fighting an economic and espionage war? We’re losing both of those btw and appear to careless about the same. I move I’m sure only serves to embolden Xi.
You don't think China and those nations working with Russia could could combat Nato in 10 years? As long as the Western nations continue not to increase spending, & the Eastern nations maintain their increased spending, in 10 years the advantage begins to disappear. I think you have an inflated sense of Nato's advantage. As soon as China feels they are superior to us militarily(especially with those nations along for the ride) they will consider moving beyond an economic and espionage war. The balance of power tips when those nations come together.
I believe they would struggle in the European theater against NATO due to geography. The Pacific would pose similar issues for NATO. China has yet to show they can project power across the globe. Fighting a war in Europe would be a vast undertaking for the Chinese military.
All that said, pray what we’re discussing never happens. Europe would suffer greatly
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Not just Europe, so would the US. The cost of supporting the Ukraine now would pittance compared to the costs (economic and in lives) to direct conflict with Russia, even if via support of NATO allies. The costs of direct conflict with China would be worse given their home court advantage and distances involved.
The total costs of Iraq were initially estimated by the Bush administration as roughly $20 billion. The actual costs of that fiasco start at $4 Trillion and go up. The cost in lives of US military and especially Iraqi civilians are equally horrific.
The total costs of Iraq were initially estimated by the Bush administration as roughly $20 billion. The actual costs of that fiasco start at $4 Trillion and go up. The cost in lives of US military and especially Iraqi civilians are equally horrific.
Ukraine will run out of willing fighters before 1) we run out of money, supplied one way or the other, or 2) Putin and the Soviet public runs out of patience.
Thats my prediction.
Agree. The most likely result is a peace accord where Russia keeps a portion of the territory currently occupied. Ukraine is currently in danger of losing a key town in the eastern part of the country. Important logistically as far as supply lines and a base of operation. If Russia captures the town it will be very difficult to dislodge them.
They do care. They continue to send money.
Bottom line is that we are an unreliable ally. I am not even confident we would step in to defend a NATO ally like Poland if Russia were to incur.
Biden abandoned our allies in Afghanistan. The Republican isolationists want to do the same in Ukraine. I can see why Putin would think to just be patient.
I had a funny image in my head when they said they had a Soviet era coke plant. I thought maybe the 1000 residents were all holed up in the basement of this Soviet Era plant.
All of em snorting away on coca leaf, paranoid about where the next bomb was gonna hit.
👀👁️🥤
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Uh. So what?
I can't get around to retiling my kitchen counters.
Are you tired of discussing the other topic?
He doesn't discuss any topics with his posts. It's just marionette propaganda. The Chinese and Russians cater full course meals to this guy. He lives on Borscht & Hot Pot's.
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Hopefully this isn’t accurate as it paints fairly bleak picture inside Ukraine. I suspect Russia wil continue to gain territory during the spring/summer months as Ukrainian forces are slowly ground down due to the lack of man power
A 45 yr old average in the military speaks volumes. Being unwilling to mobilize more troops speaks volumes. Expect the new pleas from Zelensky to include requests for ground troops and air support.
We had several Ukrainian exchange students in our classes here in Noble. Many spent time hanging out with our son at our house or going to movies, thunder games, TU games, etc... We stay in contact with many of them. Some have come back and overstay visas. Some are in Kiev and send our son pictures of the club scene in Kiev. None of them have any interest in joining the fight.
I don’t believe Putin cares about the loss of life. He’s already acquired land with over $10T in minerals underneath it and that number grows with every mile of territory they take. I assume he looks at this in the longterm.
I started this thread in May of 2022 asking what is our endgame here? Not sure that question has ever been answered.
Western militarization of Ukraine with hope of long term stalemate until Putin dies or there is some other disruptive global change. Might be a few decades.
The West will have to put boots on the ground for that strategy to be successful. Ukraine simply lacks the manpower for a longterm stalemate.
Putin is 71. I doubt he is going live &/or be able to maintain power for 20 years. Five to fifteen years. Can't see him in power at 90.
Agree. Best case is probably a threat of boots in order to secure a peace treaty. I’m afraid the longer we wait the more territory Russia will acquire. Any treaty where Russia keeps Ukrainian territory will obviously be hard to sell but I don’t see any other viable alternatives given the situation on the ground. Putin will have to give something in order to give the Western leaders some political cover.
Can't see him providing anything other than a token give, that amounts to nothing.
I want to bleed his economy. I don’t care about territory. Russia isn’t doing this for mineral riches. They are the largest country in the world already and have some of the best mineral resources already.
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Russia’s GDP grew at 3.6% in 2023. As long as they’re allowed to sell oil and natural gas AND have the backing of China that plan isn’t going to work. In the meanwhile, they’ve captured $12T in natural resources. Need a different plan.
They find ways around our sanctions and embargos. Heck, we've been purchasing their oil. If we can't keep ourselves from purchasing it through india, then how the heck can we expect any different out of the rest of the world. India po's me. Modi is an ass. I'd like to have him in my Silence of the Lambs basement for awhile. His justification of them buying Russia's oil is B.S. It's a cheaper price so they buy it, that's it.
The West is gonna have to grow a big set of fuzzies to make that work... nothing the west has done to this point is any more effective at stopping Putin than Chamberlain and Daladier were at stopping Adolf. Any peace treaty signed will have to have teeth backed up by boots or it will be as worthless as the Munich Accords.
I didn't want to start a new post for this, so I'll just leave the post sitting here in it's mildly intrusiveness.
I don't know if the sources are naive, or the reporters are mildly naive, but I expect neither of them are. Regardles the reporting being done seems naive.
I'm talking bout the fact that they are saying Navalny was days away from a possible release. They hadn't gotten final notice yet from the Russians. on his possible release. They were one day away from a response. They also reported that Putin was not involved at all in this negotiation. That's BS. He was involved in the response. The response was him being killed the day before the response came out . That was Putin's response. Not involved in the situation right, only in the sense Putin was never going to let him go.
I don't know if the sources are naive, or the reporters are mildly naive, but I expect neither of them are. Regardles the reporting being done seems naive.
I'm talking bout the fact that they are saying Navalny was days away from a possible release. They hadn't gotten final notice yet from the Russians. on his possible release. They were one day away from a response. They also reported that Putin was not involved at all in this negotiation. That's BS. He was involved in the response. The response was him being killed the day before the response came out . That was Putin's response. Not involved in the situation right, only in the sense Putin was never going to let him go.
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That growth is mostly attributed to ramped up military spending.…. let’s see them sustain it. Play it exactly like Reagan did.
Again, natural resources aren’t their end game here. You’re staring at the pawn right in front of you and not the queen behind
According to Shatz, the Russian government spent about $353.8 billion (32.4 trillion rubles) in 2023, up from a little more than 31 trillion rubles in 2022. But those numbers far outstrip prewar levels of spending. The federal budget in 2021 was only $270 billion (24.8 trillion rubles).
"They're supporting defense industries. They're supporting employment. They're paying people bonuses to join the armed forces," Shatz said. "They're paying families for service members who are killed. They're paying service members who are wounded, who are lucky enough to get sent home."
The Kremlin has funded these outlays by increasing tax revenues, drawing down the national wealth fund, and most importantly, by borrowing. The government deficit is historically high right now, at nearly 10% of the overall budget.
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