It entirely depends on how the team reacts. Based on our season averages, 16 wins seems very doable, if not likely. Again, based on the entire season and talent we have:
Losses are likely vs.WSU and @ Temple, WSU, UCONN, and Cinci.
We should win vs. Tulane, USF and @ USF and ECU.
Toss up games are Memphis, SMU, UCF and Temple at home. Call those a split.
BOOM - 16 wins (umm, yay?)
Unfortunately, after getting stymied at Memphis, humiliated at Houston, and probably destroyed by WSU followed by a loss @ Temple - the Memphis game at home could be an emotional struggle, followed by another butt kicking @ WSU and SMU could just continue the trend. Even if we get back on track and only drop games at Cinci and vs Temple after that, we still finish below here we were last year.
I was somewhat pessimistic after the UCONN win but was able to take away positives (like a hard earned W!), but now I'm turning into a very pessimistic fan. I need to get back to lethargy, it's better for my psyche.