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State of the Bubble

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ctt8410

I.T.S. Head Coach
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Dec 4, 2003
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In my opinion, there are now 30 locks for the tournament to go with at least 22 one-bid conferences and (potentially) already 1 bid thief in Northern Iowa. That leaves anywhere from 6-16 bids (depending on bid thieves) to split amongst the following 20 teams:

Wichita State
St. Mary's
Gonzaga
Tulsa
Temple
Cincinnati
UConn
Butler
VCU
St. Joseph's
St. Bonaventure
George Washington
Vanderbilt
Florida
South Carolina
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
USC
Oregon State
Michigan

The WCC teams are the only ones playing tonight. It's likely that one of them wins the autobid and the other is on the bubble. Neither has a particularly strong resume.IMO, but both will be in the conversation.
 
With Iona playing Monmouth for the MAAC championship...does it help or hurt us if the Gaels win? Does Monmouth warrant an at-large if they lose the title game? They had an outstanding season as one of the P5 patsies (or so they thought when they set up the non-con games with them).
 
With 3 really bad (200+) losses, I don't think they've got a shot. If it were up to me, teams like this (and Murray State last year) would be in, but the committee has historically disagreed.

If you don't want to risk anything, go ahead and root for Monmouth. I'll be rooting for Iona.
 
Lunardi has been touting Monmouth for an at-large bid although he did say he didn't think the committee would give them one. He was saying, in his mind, the quality wins overcame the bad losses although the committee usually goes the other direction. It's frustrating to see the same talking head pimp a team with 3 200+ losses and discount us because we have 2 losses in the 100-150 range.
 
The committee is watching the game hearing how they are crazy NOT to give Monmouth an at-large. Mentioned about every 30 seconds. Talk about lobbying. Bilas puts Monmouth and Wichita ahead of us.

"Monmouth is in , win or lose"
 
We are not going to get in without 2 more wins at least it appears with all the bid stealers.
 
Iona with a 3 pt win so we'll say potential bid stealer with that one though not guaranteed. However, Valpo in OT vs. Wisconsin Green Bay...crazy play to get that to OT too. If GB wins you'd have to think the Horizon will end up with 2 bids and another bid stealer there.
 
I remember Bryce Drew talking to our committee. Didn't want to leave his ailing family.
 
I'm not sure Valpo will get an at large if they lose tonight in the semi-finals. Their RPI will drop to about 51.
 
Guys.... you are all mostly crazy...

When Tulsa is playing, they are gonna say "TULSA must be in".... the same ole' stuff...

MONMOUTH beat USC (barely top 50 RPI) and ND (Top 40 RPI). They have NOT beaten anyone else. UCLA is worse than IONA.

VALPO has 1 top 50 Win --- vs. Oregon State.

Guys... NEITHER is getting in. You are high to think otherwise. RELAX.
 
bigzit said:
Guys.... you are all mostly crazy...

When Tulsa is playing, they are gonna say "TULSA must be in".... the same ole' stuff...

MONMOUTH beat USC (barely top 50 RPI) and ND (Top 40 RPI). They have NOT beaten anyone else. UCLA is worse than IONA.

VALPO has 1 top 50 Win --- vs. Oregon State.

Guys... NEITHER is getting in. You are high to think otherwise. RELAX.
Click to expand...


I think you are right. For ratings and publicity ESPN "Bilas, etc, say that about 72 teams are "in" for sure. If they dont' get in, then it wasn't their fault.
 
SOS matters. VALPO's = 160-170 range....

**FWIW....their best and only significant win was at OSU (63-57)
 
ESPN now plugging the WCC schools. A mid major conference at best and ESPN sending one of their "A" crews to call it.

BTW, watching St. Mary's play is like watching a re-enactment of the movie "Hoosiers"
 
TU_BLA said:
ESPN now plugging the WCC schools. A mid major conference at best and ESPN sending one of their "A" crews to call it.

BTW, watching St. Mary's play is like watching a re-enactment of the movie "Hoosiers"
Click to expand...
The Conference might be mid-major, but BYU and Gonzaga are makor.
 
texcane1982 said:
The Conference might be mid-major, but BYU and Gonzaga are makor.
Click to expand...
All ESPN made. Tulsa was the "Gonzaga" before Gonzaga in the mid-90s and if ESPN had plugged us as hard as Gonzaga after our runs, one of the stud coaches would have stayed and we would be that team. BYU is not major when it comes to basketball. Yes they have had some good teams over the course of 40 years or so but their move to independent status in football followed by the need to move everything else out of the MWC has hurt their non revenue sports and basketball. Granted Rose has some limitations in recruiting and cohesion between focusing on LDS players and then losing them for 2 years to mission trips, he's just not going to find a ton of Jimmer Fredette's out there. That conference still gets way too much love from the media darlings. St. Mary's has only lost 5 games all season, 2 of them to Pepperdine in conference but IMO they haven't really done anything special. The WCC is a mediocre mid-major at best and if you think the bottom four teams in the AAC are a drag on the upper tier, the lower 6-7 in the WCC are a freaking cruise ship anchor on that conference. The conference is nothing special this year...it's all rep that has anyone talking about any of those teams.
 
Well Dougie got his ugly mug on Tv, he was pissin' himself with excitement. Good for him, he gets to go back to the tournament riding Few's coat-tails. Hahahaha


TX
 
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TU_BLA said:
All ESPN made. Tulsa was the "Gonzaga" before Gonzaga in the mid-90s and if ESPN had plugged us as hard as Gonzaga after our runs, one of the stud coaches would have stayed and we would be that team.
Click to expand...
Huh? What does, "Tulsa was Gonzaga before Gonzaga in the mid-90's" mean?

TX
 
texcane1982 said:
Huh? What does, "Tulsa was Gonzaga before Gonzaga in the mid-90's" mean?

TX
Click to expand...
We were the mid-major making tourney runs before Gonzaga became media darlings for theirs. 94-95 we got to consecutive Sweet Sixteens and we get a fat 'ol "That's cute". Gonzaga makes a run somewhere around '98 and ESPN and CBS start playing them up like crazy.
 
TU_BLA said:
We were the mid-major making tourney runs before Gonzaga became media darlings for theirs. 94-95 we got to consecutive Sweet Sixteens and we get a fat 'ol "That's cute". Gonzaga makes a run somewhere around '98 and ESPN and CBS start playing them up like crazy.
Click to expand...

I think Bruce's actual quote was, "Tulsa was Gonzaga before Gonzaga was Gonzaga."
 
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Weatherdemon said:
Syracuse trailing Pitt in the 2nd. I believe it would be good for us for Pitt to win.
Click to expand...
66-54, around 4:00 mark. Game not over, been a game of runs. Pitt lead by 14 early in 2H, lead was only 5 about 3:00 ago.

TX
 
Pitt choking, 68-68 1:24. Neither team deserves a bid.

TX
 
Cuse are in the clubhouse at 19-13. RPI 66. 4-9 vs top 50. 8-10 vs top 100. Losses to 103 GTown, 116 Clemson, and 233 St John's.
 
Per bracketmatrix, us and UConn are really close right now. We need them to lose to Cincy.
 
I know it takes the fun out of watching other games and following all the bubble talk but our situation is pretty simple imo. It doesn't matter what anyone else does. If we win our next two we are in the tourney imo. If we don't make it to the finals we are hosting a first round NIT game.
 
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TU_BLA said:
We were the mid-major making tourney runs before Gonzaga became media darlings for theirs. 94-95 we got to consecutive Sweet Sixteens and we get a fat 'ol "That's cute". Gonzaga makes a run somewhere around '98 and ESPN and CBS start playing them up like crazy.
Click to expand...

Yeah but it's so much more fun to say "gonzaga" than it is to say "Tulsa".... And there's the whole... Is it gunzahgah or gunzaggah...
 
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