Medicare becoming....solvent?!?!?

[astonmartin708]

A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. And No One Is Sure Why.

Instead of growing and growing, as it always had, spending per Medicare beneficiary has nearly leveled off over more than a decade.

www.nytimes.com

Thanks Obama? ? ????

...Or maybe it's just an anomaly.

 

[lawpoke87]

I certainly hope it’s not an anomaly. We need some good fiscal news. Something which I haven’t seen reported….31% of all US debt matures in the next 12 months. Debt which now must be refinanced at much higher rates. Resulting in a large increase in our debt service costs. We’re looking at $1.5 - $2T deficits for the next several years. What’s striking is we will be running deficits this size without a financial or health crisis.

 

[aTUfan]

ss and medicare should NEVER be the subject of cuts.

 

[astonmartin708]

I certainly hope it’s not an anomaly. We need some good fiscal news. Something which I haven’t seen reported….31% of all US debt matures in the next 12 months. Debt which now must be refinanced at much higher rates. Resulting in a large increase in our debt service costs. We’re looking at $1.5 - $2T deficits for the next several years. What’s striking is we will be running deficits this size without a financial or health crisis.

Certainly worrisome. I wonder what the effect becomes since that interest rate was essentially one we artificially placed on ourselves via our role as the global currency.

 

[lawpoke87]

Certainly worrisome. I wonder what the effect becomes since that interest rate was essentially one we artificially placed on ourselves via our role as the global currency.

To the extent we controlled are inflation rate I would agree. The interest we pay on our debt is directly related to inflation at the time our bonds are sold. No one wants a bond yielding 2% when inflation is running at 5%. Another massive mistake we’ve made is issuing shorter term bonds when rates were artificially low. Which is why all this debt is now coming due.

 

[HuffyCane]

To the extent we controlled are inflation rate I would agree. The interest we pay on our debt is directly related to inflation at the time our bonds are sold. No one wants a bond yielding 2% when inflation is running at 5%. Another massive mistake we’ve made is issuing shorter term bonds when rates were artificially low. Which is why all this debt is now coming due.

There were no buyers at longer rates.

 

[lawpoke87]

There were no buyers at longer rates.

Not today for sure. Were there buyers 15 years ago at a slight premium ?

 

[astonmartin708]

Not today for sure. Were there buyers 15 years ago at a slight premium ?

Seems like we set our selves up for what essentially amounts to an A.R.M.

 

[watu05]

So we have some respite to figure out a better system than the health care system we have now. The US still spends nearly twice as much of its GDP on healthcare as other modern countries yet only covers a percentage of the population and has some of the worst outcomes, especially for early childhood survivals. Along with that Medicare underpays primary care docs, so there is a looming scarcity of them because specialty docs earn so much more.

 

[lawpoke87]

Just throwing it out there but is it possible so many old, overweight and otherwise in poor health people passed away from Covid that these high cost people have been temporarily removed from the Medicare rolls? Other like kind people will eventually take their place but for now we have a bit of a lull? No clue if this hypothesis is true.

 

[watu05]

This is an interesting take on drug prices and Medicare. https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinio...023-09-08&mh=0793f6353cc279c9fca58a70bd243f48

 

[watu05]

Just throwing it out there but is it possible so many old, overweight and otherwise in poor health people passed away from Covid that these high cost people have been temporarily removed from the Medicare rolls? Other like kind people will eventually take their place but for now we have a bit of a lull? No clue if this hypothesis is true.

There has been a lot of speculation that that is a major factor in limiting growth, but haven't seen hard data to support it yet. .

 

[astonmartin708]

Just throwing it out there but is it possible so many old, overweight and otherwise in poor health people passed away from Covid that these high cost people have been temporarily removed from the Medicare rolls? Other like kind people will eventually take their place but for now we have a bit of a lull? No clue if this hypothesis is true.

It’s possible but I think the trend may have started slightly before Covid.