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Inflation and a recession are now here :(

More signs that Sanctions on Russia are starting to bite….


I have also seen where supposedly 98% of Chinese banks have begun refusing direct payment on notes from Russia under threat if sanctions from the US.
 
Has Biden addressed this?

Reminds me of FRED data chart depicting when Biden decided to add savings accounts to the M1 money supply.

Funny, I don’t mean to be rude to Aston or gmoney or whoever else was fooled into supporting the party of the KKK, but how did you feel yesterday after having defended Coup-mala’s ad hoc “price gauging” policy now that yesterday WAPO called it a “gimmick” & and a Democrat panelist on CNN was ranting how he “hates socialism?”

Lmao these 2 things are supposed to never happen WAPO doesn’t attack Coupmala for bad policy & CNN doesn’t outright denounce socialism!

lmao Coupmala is so bad SO DUMB SO DENSE SUCH A FLOOZY AIRHEAD that she got them to do both! HAHAHAHAAahahhahaa
 
So, this thread began in May 2021…. 3 years later and it seems somewhat like the inflation monster has been tamed…. There are certainly many hurdles in front of us, but for the time being, the treasury has effectively pumped the brakes on the US economy. I’m now willing to say that the lagged effects from Covid and the geo-economic effects of the Russian incursion into Ukraine have been brought into market balance.

“Transitory” is a subjective term I suppose.
You think it’s been tamed? By who?
 
More signs that Sanctions on Russia are starting to bite….


I have also seen where supposedly 98% of Chinese banks have begun refusing direct payment on notes from Russia under threat if sanctions from the US.
And you believed this?
 
Powell just stated the Fed will begin cutting rates. This coming after the government reduced the number of jobs created by almost 1M. Indicating the labor market has been weaker than reported for a significant period of time. I’m not sure of the process involved in coming up with our monthly labor reports but I know it needs to improve.

Markets are up on the news and bond yields are down. All good news.
 
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Powell just stated the Fed will begin cutting rates. This coming after the government reduced the number of jobs created by almost 1M. Indicating the labor market has been weaker than reported for a significant period of time. I’m not sure of the process involved in coming up with our monthly labor reports but I know it needs to improve.

Markets are up on the news and bond yields are down. All good news.
Thanks Obama!?
 
the Gov mandated increase in the minimum wage contributed to inflation, job loss and store closings.

How about a definition outlining the minimum work required to qualify for minimum wage.
 
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Powell just stated the Fed will begin cutting rates. This coming after the government reduced the number of jobs created by almost 1M. Indicating the labor market has been weaker than reported for a significant period of time. I’m not sure of the process involved in coming up with our monthly labor reports but I know it needs to improve.

Markets are up on the news and bond yields are down. All good news.
Hey there’s more reason to celebrate everyday

 
Before Trump’s election, Redfin Corp. projected mortgage rates would average 6.1% next year. But three days after the election, they revised their estimate upward to 6.8%–basically unchanged from today’s high levels. “The difference is Trump,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “The market seems to be pricing in that he’ll move forward with at least some of the tariffs.” It’s another hit for the housing market that’s been dealing with a rise in borrowing costs that’s pushed at least one measure of mortgage rates above 7%. Economists expecting higher-for-longer borrowing costs shows just how tough the market is likely to be for homebuyers trying to find affordable options.
 
Before Trump’s election, Redfin Corp. projected mortgage rates would average 6.1% next year. But three days after the election, they revised their estimate upward to 6.8%–basically unchanged from today’s high levels. “The difference is Trump,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “The market seems to be pricing in that he’ll move forward with at least some of the tariffs.” It’s another hit for the housing market that’s been dealing with a rise in borrowing costs that’s pushed at least one measure of mortgage rates above 7%. Economists expecting higher-for-longer borrowing costs shows just how tough the market is likely to be for homebuyers trying to find affordable options.
The bond market has surprisingly reacted positively to Trumps election. Mortgage rates have dropped .almost a full 1/2 point since his election. I would continue to watch the ten year bond but at least to date it doesn’t appear additional inflation is being added into the market
 
The bond market has surprisingly reacted positively to Trumps election. Mortgage rates have dropped .almost a full 1/2 point since his election. I would continue to watch the ten year bond but at least to date it doesn’t appear additional inflation is being added into the market
You're welcome for your soft landing. Time to go out and wreck it.
 
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Feds cut rates a quarter of a point. Mortgage rates immediately spike. Not really sure what we’re doing here with this rate cut.

 
I always thought mortgage rates followed the bond market much more closely than the fed reserve rate.
Follows the 10 year bond which immediate spiked upon the rate cut. Bond market sees the cut as inflationary. Stock market is also down more than 500 points from the announcement of the cut. No one is viewing this action as a positive other than maybe the large banks who now have cheaper money
 
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economics students; what is the corelation of inflation and cost of living? does deflation have an opposite raction?
No, because it typically comes with economic depression and many people losing their means to satisfy their necessary cost of living. Think about the 1930's.
 
so how do you bring prices down after a long perIod of time with high inflation?
Generally, you have to wait for prices to catch up with the wages through a recession that slows down inflation, and/or brings about deflation.
 
Generally, you have to wait for prices to catch up with the wages through a recession that slows down inflation, and/or brings about deflation.
The real question / dilemma is how long does it take wages to catch up with the aggregate price increases we’ve seen over the past 3 plus years? Basically, to get us to the same buying power we were in 2020.
 
The real question / dilemma is how long does it take wages to catch up with the aggregate price increases we’ve seen over the past 3 plus years? Basically, to get us to the same buying power we were in 2020.
The 80's were fine after Carter & the '82 recession. That only lasted a year and a half. I think we'll be fine.
 
The 80's were fine after Carter & the '82 recession. That only lasted a year and a half. I think we'll be fine.
It took the worst recession since WW2 and unemployment rates over 10% to bring prices down. Not sure we’re prepared for that kind of economic pain. Nor do I foresee similar economic conditions which would bring prices back in line with wages. Guess we will see. Housing is a huge issue as rates remain stubbornly high as the Fed seems more concerned with growth than inflation
 
It took the worst recession since WW2 and unemployment rates over 10% to bring prices down. Not sure we’re prepared for that kind of economic pain. Nor do I foresee similar economic conditions which would bring prices back in line with wages. Guess we will see. Housing is a huge issue as rates remain stubbornly high as the Fed seems more concerned with growth than inflation
Low rates wouldn't really help the situation though.... it would just drive up real estate prices / equities more.

We have to bring the supply and demand part of the equation into more balance. Demand for property ownership will always be high. Supply is lagging.

Meanwhile, we're going to lend some more debt to billionaires so it will trickle down to the rest of the population..... and then we will question where the money has gone and why we still have these societal issues of medical care, retirement spending, and housing shortages.
 
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OIL is the cornerstone of our economy.
No. Technological innovation is. Oil is certainly a facilitator, but its use for transportation is theoretically removeable / replaceable removable ( this does not include petrochemical, lubricants, and plastics)
 
Low rates wouldn't really help the situation though.... it would just drive up real estate prices / equities more.

We have to bring the supply and demand part of the equation into more balance. Demand for property ownership will always be high. Supply is lagging.

Meanwhile, we're going to lend some more debt to billionaires so it will trickle down to the rest of the population..... and then we will question where the money has gone and why we still have these societal issues of medical care, retirement spending, and housing shortages.
Not sure where you’re getting your info. We’re at a near ten year high of new housing supply in the US. The problem is high rates are making housing unaffordable leading to rising inventory.

 
Not sure where you’re getting your info. We’re at a near ten year high of new housing supply in the US. The problem is high rates are making housing unaffordable leading to rising inventory.

I agree that high rates are fundamentally a problem right now, but the housing supply right now is still vastly dwarfed by the housing demand. Analyses from Freddie Mac, the National Assoc. of Realtors, and Zillow put the shortage number somewhere between 2.5 and 4.5 million homes. It's not just the rates that are the problem.... even if relatively low rates were to come along tomorrow, you're talking about mortgages for national average homes being astronomical and sellers would likely play into those low rates and raise their prices even more, add to that the rising cost of home insurance and you're really in trouble.
 
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