He puts crap up here that he sees on unreliable sites. That's why I wanted to hear what he was referring to. He doesn't say it's questionable in most cases. He states it as fact.
Inflation and a recession are now here :(
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Well, it’s fact that hundreds of thousands of people were declared disabled and remain “disabled” mostly because their unemployment benefits ran out during the Great Recession. Congress would not extend them, so the Obama Administration encouraged folks to apply for disability to fill the gap. Not surprisingly a substantial plurality never left, as it pays 90% of minimum wage and allows folks to work for cash on the side. Or sit on their couch and abuse drugs. Their own people estimate an astronomical number, iirc upwards of 30% of all payments are made to persons who are not eligible. Go to their webpage. It will blow your mind. You can be put on disability for feeling anxious. Not a clinical diagnosis of general anxiety disorder. Just expressing those feelings and saying it impairs your ability to work. There’s a judge in the Midwest who has never denied a claim going back years. If you want to know how/why Dollar General has stores in the middle of nowhere, this is why. They purchase the data on disability payments and build on real estate with favorable appreciation potential in areas that meet minimum thresholds on SSA, SSDI etc.
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I had a client tell me recently the downward slide in inflation numbers are not real. Says the government is reporting false numbers to keep increases in Soc Sec payments lower than they should be.
I've heard a lot of comments from clients on politics and the stock markets, hadn't heard that one before.
Amazing what is out on the internet.
I've heard a lot of comments from clients on politics and the stock markets, hadn't heard that one before.
Amazing what is out on the internet.
You are talking about graft on the system. I don't think that's what aTuFan was referring to, but I could be wrong. Graft will always be there. That obviously takes place in all areas of the government. From the defense budget, to general contracts for government jobs, to anything and everything else.
I feel like I have my tin foil hat on with this post so bear with me. Will the government intentional lie about inflation data due to SS…no. However, the Fed’s know we can’t play 5% on the $34T we have borrowed. Will they do everything in their power to lower those inflation numbers in hopes of bringing down bond yields….yes. They have too. Will that include fudging numbers or adjusting how certain data is reported? Maybe. See the numbers contained in my last post. Those are simply not sustainable. Debt service costs must go down
Looks like this stuff may really start to hurt people that matter and not just us little people.
www.zerohedge.com
"It's All Over": Powell's WSJ Mouthpiece And JPMorgan Confirm Imminent End Of QT | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Biden buying more votes with student loans forgiveness? how can we, taxpayers, keep paying for his spending.
Had no idea. Link is on the Rivals main board. Assume those numbers are wrong then ?
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Inflation continues to be a problem. Yields on the ten year treasury continue to rise. Why is this important? Because it’s the primary vehicle we use to finance our debt. As yields rise our debt service costs follow. Not great news for a country borrowing $2T a year.
“US stocks fell sharply Wednesday morning after inflation data for March came in higher than expected.”
I saw the other day that small business buying confidence and borrowing is now lower than 6 months after the 2008 financial crisis.
It’s hard to see a future where we don’t have a major abrupt unplanned and uncontrolled economic readjustment in the next several months.
I saw the other day that small business buying confidence and borrowing is now lower than 6 months after the 2008 financial crisis.
It’s hard to see a future where we don’t have a major abrupt unplanned and uncontrolled economic readjustment in the next several months.
They are actually pushing out that inflation is not as high as expected if you subtract housing, food, medical costs, fuel, and utilities. Who is running this country?
It’s insane. The Railway Exchange Building in St Louis was sold in 2006 at a record but still comparative bargain for a historic building of $205 million. It sold again last year for $4 million. The current owners are likely to default on $3 million in mortgage and it will again sell at even less later this year. Meanwhile $3 million is a good price for a five bedroom home in the better parts of the exburbs of St Louis.
I don’t see how housing isn’t a bubble that inflation will eventually burst.
It’s insane. The Railway Exchange Building in St Louis was sold in 2006 at a record but still comparative bargain for a historic building of $205 million. It sold again last year for $4 million. The current owners are likely to default on $3 million in mortgage and it will again sell at even less later this year. Meanwhile $3 million is a good price for a five bedroom home in the better parts of the exburbs of St Louis.
I don’t see how housing isn’t a bubble that inflation will eventually burst.
Commercial real estate is obviously a complete mess especially the corporate office sector.
I am convinced it is permanent change.
My company has probably given up 80% of our space worldwide since the pandemic. There is no turning back.
Downtown Tulsa has done decently well due to residential conversions and renewed interest in living downtown. Still some lost value. But NYC is in serious trouble based on what I heard from folks there last week. I think that's the more representative example.
I’m bullish on multi family. Residential is still holding up fairly well but danger is in the wings. Commercial has been a disaster and I agree that it’s likely a permanent change.
We are lucky in Tulsa that there is finally a reason to live downtown the past decade. There is also money for historic conversions to apartments.
I think there is room for owner occupied condos which are exceptionally sparse. Unfortunately condo financing is hard for historic conversions as I understand it.
I would love that type of residence at empty nester time but right now there are few highrise options downtown for owner occupied. It's another potential area for growth.
“What the upper-middle-class left doesn’t get about inflation” via Michael Powell of The Atlantic — Democratic Party analysts and left-leaning economists have had quite enough of their fellow Americans’ complaints. As a striking number of poll respondents express alarm, despair even, about the rising cost of living during Biden’s presidency, experts shake their heads. Don’t people realize that jobs are plentiful, wages are rising and inflation is in retreat?
The modern Democratic Party and liberalism itself, is to a substantial extent a bastion of college-educated, upper-middle-class professionals, people for whom Biden-era inflation is unpleasant but rarely calamitous. Poor, working-class and lower-middle-class people experience a different reality. They carry the searing memories of the Great Recession and its foreclosure crisis when millions of American households lost their home.
A large number of these Americans worked in person during the dolorous early days of the pandemic and saw its toll up close. And since 2019, they’ve weathered 20% inflation and now rising interest rates — which means they’ve lost more than a fifth of their purchasing power.
Tell these Americans that the economy is humming, that median wage growth has nudged ahead of the core inflation rate, and that everything’s grand, and you’re likely to see a roll of the eyes.
Economists talked of a “vibecession” — an admixture of gloom and worry and misinformation that prevents Americans from seeing the rosy nature of the economy. This is a common take among prominent Democrats and left-leaning economists, all of whom speak with an eye on the upcoming presidential election.
But even a cooling inflation rate simply means that prices are growing more slowly. Consumers — particularly those whose wages have not kept pace — still remember years of soaring price increases.
The modern Democratic Party and liberalism itself, is to a substantial extent a bastion of college-educated, upper-middle-class professionals, people for whom Biden-era inflation is unpleasant but rarely calamitous. Poor, working-class and lower-middle-class people experience a different reality. They carry the searing memories of the Great Recession and its foreclosure crisis when millions of American households lost their home.
A large number of these Americans worked in person during the dolorous early days of the pandemic and saw its toll up close. And since 2019, they’ve weathered 20% inflation and now rising interest rates — which means they’ve lost more than a fifth of their purchasing power.
Tell these Americans that the economy is humming, that median wage growth has nudged ahead of the core inflation rate, and that everything’s grand, and you’re likely to see a roll of the eyes.
Economists talked of a “vibecession” — an admixture of gloom and worry and misinformation that prevents Americans from seeing the rosy nature of the economy. This is a common take among prominent Democrats and left-leaning economists, all of whom speak with an eye on the upcoming presidential election.
But even a cooling inflation rate simply means that prices are growing more slowly. Consumers — particularly those whose wages have not kept pace — still remember years of soaring price increases.
The denial or misunderstanding of inflation is truly baffling to me. I'm not a democrat but I fit the adjectives described in this "college-educated, upper-middle-class professionals, people for whom Biden-era inflation is unpleasant". I always thought these same people on the left are who care about the poor, working class.
As I get older, I've started realizing, that nobody cares about the poor, working class, except when it comes time to try and get their votes.
I think the tone deaf articles on the economy doing great are being sponsored by Republicans to make Biden and Democrats look out of touch.
The real thing people need to understand is that it’s not “Biden Era” inflation. It’s inflation that has happened to occur during Biden’s administration. In terms of global prosperity, aside from India’s profiteering off of the East / West split, the USA is doing better than most countries. Americans are not the only people struggling and placing the blame for macro economic trends solely on Biden is ignorant of the wider picture.
You believe The Atlantic is publishing Republican sponsored articles or are you referring to other articles?
Not sure I’m buying the fact that the poor are reading economic articles and believing the same over their every day life experiences. The poor are always the hardest hit in time of high inflation. Their wages have not caught up to the increases in food, shelter, energy. When you’re living paycheck to paycheck you are very aware of what that paycheck buys.
They are reading social media and those articles are pushed into their timelines and home pages.
Would you really put that tactic past a political opponent during an election cycle? Make your opponent seem out of touch seems like an incredibly straight forward strategy.
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“This nation, tobogganing swiftly down a steep slope of fiscal irresponsibility, barely notices a blur of alarming milestones. Last week, we sped past this one: A $1.1 trillion deficit in the first six months of fiscal year 2024 that began Oct. 1 resulted in almost as many dollars spent on debt service ($429 billion) as on defense ($433 billion).
This, at the most menacing geopolitical moment since 1945, makes one hope that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon was radically wrong in saying recently that interest rates could reach 8 percent or more in the coming years. If they do, deficits will explode even before the Social Security and Medicare trust funds are exhausted, within 10 years.”
Inflation has stormed back in the last few months with treasuries reaching 12 month highs. Mortgage rates are now nearing 8% testing highs set last year. Not great news considering we borrowed another $1T during the first half of fiscal 2024. Meanwhile our political leadership….crickets.
This, at the most menacing geopolitical moment since 1945, makes one hope that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon was radically wrong in saying recently that interest rates could reach 8 percent or more in the coming years. If they do, deficits will explode even before the Social Security and Medicare trust funds are exhausted, within 10 years.”
Inflation has stormed back in the last few months with treasuries reaching 12 month highs. Mortgage rates are now nearing 8% testing highs set last year. Not great news considering we borrowed another $1T during the first half of fiscal 2024. Meanwhile our political leadership….crickets.
Wonder what Trump would do on the economy if anything. All his tariffs caused a little bit of inflation. Now Biden wants to increase his steel tariffs something like by 2 or 3x the original amount. All tariffs do is cost the buyers money. That will cause more inflation. My guess is he would chafe at interest rates rising, one because he borrows more than he earns, and two he would see having a recession as something a loser would do in a presidential term.
Love that he is wanting a cut off of candidates using his name in their campaigns to raise money. Is that even legal?
Love that he is wanting a cut off of candidates using his name in their campaigns to raise money. Is that even legal?
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I would hope any political figure would understand the urgency of taking actions today to address inflation. Unfortunately, our leaders appear completely oblivious based on the past few years. In fact, I can’t point to any coherant policy aimed at reducing inflation / debt service costs. If anything it appears we’re fighting the Fed’s efforts to reduce inflationary pressures
If the Republicans motion to oust Speaker Johnson, here is what I would like to see. Every single democratic member of the house abstain from voting. That way it would be the Republican right wing falling flat on it's face, and the motion failing on a straight Republican vote.
There are rumblings about going back to the much more secure methods of bringing a vote for the Speaker's recusal now. I hope they go back to that and never consider this method again. A couple of eight or ten Representatives are holding bills hostage over this. If something would go through on a straight Republican vote, then it deserves to go up for a vote
So, this thread began in May 2021…. 3 years later and it seems somewhat like the inflation monster has been tamed…. There are certainly many hurdles in front of us, but for the time being, the treasury has effectively pumped the brakes on the US economy. I’m now willing to say that the lagged effects from Covid and the geo-economic effects of the Russian incursion into Ukraine have been brought into market balance.
“Transitory” is a subjective term I suppose.
“Transitory” is a subjective term I suppose.
Certainly welcome news that the rate of price increases have slowed. Yellen obviously misread the inflationary pressure facing us when I started this thread and as a result was slow to act. You’re correct that there are many hurdles in front of us. We’ve been placed in a hole as far as housing and food costs. Hopefully we can start to dig out of the same with wages rising faster than those necessities. Interest rates need to come down. Paying over $1T a year in debt service is problematic. Fingers crossed.
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