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Inflation and a recession are now here :(

10 year and 3 month yield curve are now inverted. Recession is almost a certainty for those keeping track of these things.
 
'my son(that died) served(in Iraq)...'

Fairly easy mispeak, especially if you are his age.
Except this isn’t the first time he’s claimed this. Doing a Google search it appears Biden believes Iraq contributed to his son’s brain cancer thus he claims he died there. Certainly makes a better story implying he died while serving in Iraq.
 
Biden had a full day today of claims apparently

There were other doctors involved in the discovery of insulin who were alive when he was,. The two who were on the patent were alive, the two who weren't were dead. Those two other doctors on the patent died in '79, and '65. I'm sure it was one of them he spoke with.

If he thinks that is the cause of his son's death, I'm not going to argue that with him. I'm also not going to argue with him on the semantics of cause, and death in action.
 
Fed just raised rates another 75 basis points to 4%. No chance we’re not in a recession next year imo. I see Biden is giving a speech from the Capital tonight. Chances he will talk about the economy, inflation, and what lies ahead and our plans to combat the same ?
 
Fed just raised rates another 75 basis points to 4%. No chance we’re not in a recession next year imo. I see Biden is giving a speech from the Capital tonight. Chances he will talk about the economy, inflation, and what lies ahead and our plans to combat the same ?
Sooo why was it okay when Reagan’s fed cause 2 recessions combating inflation but Biden’s isn’t allowed to?
 
Sooo why was it okay when Reagan’s fed cause 2 recessions combating inflation but Biden’s isn’t allowed to?
1). We only suffered through 1 recession under Reagan in 1992.

2). I believe most people believe the Fed has been asleep at the wheel regarding monetary policy for awhile. No idea if a recession could have been prevented but the rate at which rates has been raised and the coming economic shock could have been significantly lessened.

I don’t blame Biden for the Fed’s actions other than the last injection of money into an economy suffering from labor and material shortages. The Fed failed to acknowledge the inflationary danger at the time. Presumably out of political loyalty. Practically everyone else know the end result. Your favorite phrase “transitory inflation” was born. Most of knew that was crap.

Anyway, I digress. I don’t blame Biden for the Fed’s actions. He’s not a financial guy. Monetary policy is the Fed’s decision. I do blame Biden for his refusal to address our economic situation. Reagan was holding press conferences and addressing the nation about his plan to deal with inflation and the recession. Can you point me toward an address or press conference where Biden laid out his plan? He (or the Dems) should be having these at least once a month. Instead they pass a law which does nothing to reduce inflation and calls it “The Inflation Reduction Act”. It’s embarrassing and disingenuous. Place as much emphasis on your plan to help the American people as you did on Jan 6 / Trump and midterms would look a lot different imo.

I anticipate the Dems lose the House and possibly the Senate next Tuesday. I thought the Pubs being morons on abortion would save the Dems….and it did for awhile if you look at the polls. However, their failure to focus on the current struggles of Americans is going to be their downfall. Even with a week left and a national audience Biden refuses to address the issues most relevant to the voters. Yes….they are more stupid than the Pubs at least in this election cycle. Something I didn’t believe was possible. :).

We are going to need strong leadership from the Whitehouse over the next 18 months. People are going to suffer. I have zero confidence we will see anything of the sort. We certainly haven’t to date
 
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1). We only suffered through 1 recession under Reagan in 1992.

2). I believe most people believe the Fed has been asleep at the wheel regarding monetary policy for awhile. No idea if a recession could have been prevented but the rate at which rates has been raised and the coming economic shock could have been significantly lessened.

I don’t blame Biden for the Fed’s actions other than the last injection of money into an economy suffering from labor and material shortages. The Fed failed to acknowledge the inflationary danger at the time. Presumably out of political loyalty. Practically everyone else know the end result. Your favorite phrase “transitory inflation” was born. Most of knew that was crap.

Anyway, I digress. I don’t blame Biden for the Fed’s actions. He’s not a financial guy. Monetary policy is the Fed’s decision. I do blame Biden for his refusal to address our economic situation. Reagan was holding press conferences and addressing the nation about his plan to deal with inflation and the recession. Can you point me toward an address or press conference where Biden laid out his plan? He (or the Dems) should be having these at least once a month. Instead they pass a law which does nothing to reduce inflation and calls it “The Inflation Reduction Act”. It’s embarrassing and disingenuous. Place as much emphasis on your plan to help the American people as you did on Jan 6 / Trump and midterms would look a lot different imo.

I anticipate the Dems lose the House and possibly the Senate next Tuesday. I thought the Pubs being morons on abortion would save the Dems….and it did for awhile if you look at the polls. However, their failure to focus on the current struggles of Americans is going to be their downfall. Even with a week left and a national audience Biden refuses to address the issues most relevant to the voters. Yes….they are more stupid than the Pubs at least in this election cycle. Something I didn’t believe was possible. :).

We are going to need strong leadership from the Whitehouse over the next 18 months. People are going to suffer. I have zero confidence we will see anything of the sort. We certainly haven’t to date
Reagan's plans to deal with inflation literally included putting the country into a recession and causing mass unemployment for a period of time.

Which president is going to come out and say they expect ~10% of the US to lose their jobs to stall inflation?
 
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Reagan's plans to deal with inflation literally included putting the country into a recession and causing mass unemployment for a period of time.

Which president is going to come out and say they expect ~10% of the US to lose their jobs to stall inflation?
You understand Volcker was appointed to Chairman of the Fed by Carter…correct ?

Not sure what choice we had when Reagan took office in Jan of 1981. Prices increased 13.3 percent in 1979 and another 12.5 percent in 1980. Imagine taking office in an economy where prices had increased well over 25% in the last two years? That’s more than double what we’ve seen in the past two years. Not sure how you curb those kind of price increases without drastic monetary action. Hopefully we end up with an economic boom like we saw from 1983 to 1988 coming out of this recession.

A President leads especially when his people are suffering. You explain what we’re doing and why we’re doing it. How it’s the best and only course of action for economic prosperity. You explain you understand the current and future hardships. Then you tell us what exactly your plan is to lead us back to economic prosperity. Your vision.

You don’t go with this crap:

 
You understand Volcker was appointed to Chairman of the Fed by Carter…correct ?

Not sure what choice we had when Reagan took office in Jan of 1981. Prices increased 13.3 percent in 1979 and another 12.5 percent in 1980. Imagine taking office in an economy where prices had increased well over 25% in the last two years? That’s more than double what we’ve seen in the past two years. Not sure how you curb those kind of price increases without drastic monetary action. Hopefully we end up with an economic boom like we saw from 1983 to 1988 coming out of this recession.

A President leads especially when his people are suffering. You explain what we’re doing and why we’re doing it. How it’s the best and only course of action for economic prosperity. You explain you understand the current and future hardships. Then you tell us what exactly your plan is to lead us back to economic prosperity. Your vision.

You don’t go with this crap:

His tax cuts took place and helped make the unemployment problem before the recession. It wasn't just Volker's intervention that led to that job loss.
 
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His tax cuts took place and made the unemployment problem before the recession. It wasn't just Volker's intervention that led to that job loss.
You’re arguing tax cuts which became effective mid August created immediate unemployment in the US economy in 1981? Remember, by the 4th quarter we were well on our way into the recession with a 3 point drop in GDP.
 
What is your plan when there is an energy shortage leading to high energy prices and inflation ?

 
What is your plan when there is an energy shortage leading to high energy prices and inflation ?

Biden's stuck between his base and a hard place. That was a flat out lie by him. Certainly not a good look.... in any case though, oil production since Biden took over has been increasing at an average rate of 114,000 BBL per month. We're on track to to match the all time in the middle of next year, though I anticipate it will probably occur slightly before that. You do have to remember that we had a MASSIVE decline in exploration budgets during Covid. It takes time for those projects to come back online, and what would have been replacing lost production from declining wells elsewhere wasn't brought online during the end of Trump's term. As far as natural gas goes, we hit the all time high in Sept.
 
Biden's stuck between his base and a hard place. That was a flat out lie by him. Certainly not a good look.... in any case though, oil production since Biden took over has been increasing at an average rate of 114,000 BBL per month. We're on track to to match the all time in the middle of next year, though I anticipate it will probably occur slightly before that. You do have to remember that we had a MASSIVE decline in exploration budgets during Covid. It takes time for those projects to come back online, and what would have been replacing lost production from declining wells elsewhere wasn't brought online during the end of Trump's term. As far as natural gas goes, we hit the all time high in Sept.
Wasn't a lie, just an incomplete truth. We haven't drilled any new wells.(on federal land)
 
What does it say about his base that they oppose new drilling given the current energy and economic situation ?
 
What does it say about his base that they oppose new drilling given the current energy and economic situation ?
It says they are idiots, just like the republican base.

Unless I'm having a meal with my extended family, I don't wanna be around either one. Used to enjoy sitting down with friends who were members of either base and having coffee. Let the Trump worshippers and the Occasio-nal Cortezites have a civil war, just NIMBY.
 
Wasn't a lie, just an incomplete truth. We haven't drilled any new wells.(on federal land)
This is not true.

Here is a well record of a well that was permitted by the state + feds after Biden got into office and was completed in a Federal Nexus (Fed Land Fed Minerals) in September. Spud in June.


I can find more if you'd like more evidence.

I do acknowledge that an addled Biden lied to that person when pressed on new drilling. My perspective is that we should be trying to phase out the weakness which is a dependence on oil for transportation. New drilling is necessary now at an increased pace, but if we can really work on our supply chains and make electric cars a reality the pace of new drilling can and should slow.
 
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This is not true.

Here is a well record of a well that was permitted by the state + feds after Biden got into office and was completed in a Federal Nexus (Fed Land Fed Minerals) in September. Spud in June.


I can find more if you'd like more evidence.

I do acknowledge that an addled Biden lied to that person when pressed on new drilling. My perspective is that we should be trying to phase out the weakness which is a dependence on oil for transportation. New drilling is necessary now at an increased pace, but if we can really work on our supply chains and make electric cars a reality the pace of new drilling can and should slow.
Wow, so he lied to the public to deceive his base when he first came in office,. Then lied to a member of his base again(at a press conference) to cover up the lie he told in the first place. I just assumed he went through with halting drilling on federal lands, like he said he would. My bad, expecting Biden to keep his word.
 
Wow, so he lied to the public to deceive his base when he first came in office,. Then lied to a member of his base again(at a press conference) to cover up the lie he told in the first place. I just assumed he went through with halting drilling on federal lands, like he said he would. My bad, expecting Biden to keep his word.
I will admit that he is trying to play both sides.... and honestly, it's not something that I fault him for... yes, he has lied about it to his base, but as you know, there are realities of war, economy, and energy security that he and his staff are tasked with guiding us through. So far they have as well as could be expected. I don't believe a Republican President / Congress would make a drastic difference when it comes to the rate of increase in domestic production. The only way a Republican President / Congress might change things is by backing down in Ukraine and letting Putin get away with everything he wants.
 
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I will admit that he is trying to play both sides.... and honestly, it's not something that I fault him for... yes, he has lied about it to his base, but as you know, there are realities of war, economy, and energy security that he and his staff are tasked with guiding us through. So far they have as well as could be expected. I don't believe a Republican President / Congress would make a drastic difference when it comes to the rate of increase in domestic production. The only way a Republican President / Congress might change things is by backing down in Ukraine and letting Putin get away with everything he wants.
Imo, he can lie to his base all he wants, they are nut jobs with no sense of reality. I just didn't expect it.
 
Biden could have:

1). Talked about the effects of high inflation which in part of being fueled by high energy costs. Talked about our proxy war with one of the biggest energy producers on the planet. Talked about OPEC’s unwillingness to work with us on their production. Talked about how energy shortages are a national security issue.

OR

2). Lie.

Leadership
 
Kevin McCarthy has been running for his speaker of the house position, and telling everybody these are the three things he will place emphasis on. Tackling inflation, rising crime and border security. That's 2/3rds BS. By January, the recession will already be here, and there won't be much to do on inflation. Doubt there are too many bills that congress can pass that have any kind of significant effect on crime.

What it will be: The border, revenge investigations into Democratic politicians, and tax cuts.(Hopefully not pulling our support for Ukraine.)

Just be honest.
 
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Biden could have:

1). Talked about the effects of high inflation which in part of being fueled by high energy costs. Talked about our proxy war with one of the biggest energy producers on the planet. Talked about OPEC’s unwillingness to work with us on their production. Talked about how energy shortages are a national security issue.

OR

2). Lie.

Leadership
Some of the Democratic base (probably the group that this wacko was in) don’t care about anything you’ve listed in the first point in terms of excuses. They view the climate change problem as superceding any of those issues… honestly they may not even be wrong… but it’s very unlikely that we can turn our air craft carrier toward their direction quickly enough without tremendous human suffering.
 
Kevin McCarthy has been running for his speaker of the house position, and telling everybody these are the three things he will place emphasis on. Tackling inflation, rising crime and border security. That's 2/3rds BS. By January, the recession will already be here, and there won't be much to do on inflation. Doubt there are too many bills that congress can pass that have any kind of significant effect on crime.

What it will be: The border, revenge investigations into Democratic politicians, and tax cuts.(Hopefully not pulling our support for Ukraine.)

Just be honest.
Agree. We’ve punted on inflationary measures but I assume we won’t be able to ignore recessionary issues. I would wager you see some legislation drafted to help ease the coming pain. I can also almost guarantee there will be some qui pro quo on investigations. Politicians are all about revenge and political show
 
Agree. We’ve punted on inflationary measures but I assume we won’t be able to ignore recessionary issues. I would wager you see some legislation drafted to help ease the coming pain. I can also almost guarantee there will be some qui pro quo on investigations. Politicians are all about revenge and political show
Benghazi Pt 2 anyone?
 
Inflation down significantly in October.

What are the Republicans gonna do in January with their mini wave on Congress. They were all ready to do battle with inflation.
 
Inflation down significantly in October.

What are the Republicans gonna do in January with their mini wave on Congress. They were all ready to do battle with inflation.
Battle the recession I assume. We will also need to address the collapse of the housing market. Unemployment is going to rise. Work with the Fed to hopefully start lowering rates. Lots of work needs to be done.
 
Battle the recession I assume. We will also need to address the collapse of the housing market. Unemployment is going to rise. Work with the Fed to hopefully start lowering rates. Lots of work needs to be done.
Yeah, those last 2nd two sentences were only meant for humor, jesting about the Republican campaign modus operandi. I realize all that. The content was in the first sentence.
 
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Yeah, those 2nd two sentences were only meant for humor, jesting about the Republican campaign modus operandi. I realize all that. The content was in the first sentence.
Hoping the Fed can now chill out. I feel they raised rates faster and more than was needed. A deeper recession will be the result.
 
A very slight respite today in the form of lower than anticipated growth rate of the CPI. I'm not ready to say we've turned a corner, but it's better than it could have been I suppose.
 
Battle the recession I assume. We will also need to address the collapse of the housing market. Unemployment is going to rise. Work with the Fed to hopefully start lowering rates. Lots of work needs to be done.
it all starts with transportation
 
Hoping the Fed can now chill out. I feel they raised rates faster and more than was needed. A deeper recession will be the result.
They said the fed had stated they would slow themselves way up, if it continued as is or if the annual rate lessened more from where it is.
 
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The Fed obviously believes inflation is not yet under control. Raised rates another half point today. Somewhat of an odd move imo considering the numbers we’re now seeing. New projections are for weak GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023 and unemployment to rise well above 4%
 
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