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Inflation and a recession are now here :(

Since when is a Nurse worth more per hour than a computer engineer? lol
Since when is a football coach worth more than all of them?

But, i would like to think that someone thats in charge of someones health is worth more than a keyboard jockey..
 
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Well.. when 1 union gets a big raise.. then other unions will want a big raise.. so.. costs will go up... many unions have wage increase tied to the minimum wage, so they love those increases.. and well if the teamsters get an increase then the cost of raw materials shipped to manufacturers will go up and thus costs overall will go up..
That's due the shipping costs increasing, not other labor costs going up for the production of a product. Yes it will have a direct trickle down effect, but not for production costs.
 
I’ve been talking about this for years mainly to crickets from our posters. It’s now becoming a reality


Cost of Debt – Not a New Story….But a Scary Chart The cost of the US debt is now running at a near $1tn annualised pace. In June alone 18% of total US spending accounted for just interest expenses Ht: Valerie Noel LinkedIn
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10:23 AM · Jul 20, 2023
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Awful.
 
No chance the average computer salary in Tulsa is anywhere near $175k. Consultants maybe.
In Cali they’re getting closer to 250. It all balances out. I think my company they probably get North of 100 starting. Closer to 130-150 in mid to senior level gigs, and we don’t pay particularly well for the industry and operate in some low COL areas.

Also it differs based on their specialty. Networking, Cyber Security, Data Engineering, Data Analysis Dayabase Design, Application Mgmt, Front End UI/UX…. etc…
 
In Cali they’re getting closer to 250. It all balances out. I think my company they probably get North of 100 starting. Closer to 130-150 in mid to senior level gigs, and we don’t pay particularly well for the industry and operate in some low COL areas.

Also it differs based on their specialty. Networking, Cyber Security, Data Engineering, Data Analysis Dayabase Design, Application Mgmt, Front End UI/UX…. etc…
This is the industry I'm in and aston is right specialty makes a massive difference.

For example, an IT help desk person (what many people think of when they say "keyboard jockey") makes around 60-80k. A software/data engineer with experience makes about $115k - $175k in the Tulsa area. Software architects, a specialization most outside of IT are unfamiliar with, are often paid in the $150k-$250k range. Yes, even in Tulsa.
 
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That's due the shipping costs increasing, not other labor costs going up for the production of a product. Yes it will have a direct trickle down effect, but not for production costs.
Materials costs are cost of production...
 
From CNBC:

WASHINGTON — Morgan Stanley is crediting President Joe Biden’s economic policies with driving an unexpected surge in the U.S. economy that is so significant that the bank was forced to make a “sizable upward revision” to its estimates for U.S. gross domestic product.
Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is “driving a boom in large-scale infrastructure,” wrote Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley, in a research note released Thursday. In addition to infrastructure, “manufacturing construction has shown broad strength,” she wrote.
As a result of these unexpected swells, Morgan Stanley now projects 1.9% GDP growth for the first half of this year. That’s nearly four times higher than the bank’s previous forecast of 0.5%.


Nothing particularly extraordinary about 1.9 GDP, but it's better than some might have thought last year, and considering there's a global shadow conflict going on due to Ukraine.
 
From CNBC:

WASHINGTON — Morgan Stanley is crediting President Joe Biden’s economic policies with driving an unexpected surge in the U.S. economy that is so significant that the bank was forced to make a “sizable upward revision” to its estimates for U.S. gross domestic product.
Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is “driving a boom in large-scale infrastructure,” wrote Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley, in a research note released Thursday. In addition to infrastructure, “manufacturing construction has shown broad strength,” she wrote.
As a result of these unexpected swells, Morgan Stanley now projects 1.9% GDP growth for the first half of this year. That’s nearly four times higher than the bank’s previous forecast of 0.5%.


Nothing particularly extraordinary about 1.9 GDP, but it's better than some might have thought last year, and considering there's a global shadow conflict going on due to Ukraine.
1.9 is a very good number imo. Unfortunately, I see rather strong headwinds in the second half of 2023. As such, I expect GDP to turn negative in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Inflation will remain above the 2% target for at least the next year. Hoping I’m wrong.
 
Biden's presidency has been marked by boredom (no daily Trumped up drama and grievances), accomplishments (The infrastructure bill that Trump promised but couldn’t deliver), quietly resolving the debt limit curfuffle with Maga House Pubs (no ranting or name calling), revitalizing our relations with allies and NATO, and steering the US through the inflation resulting from Trump's borrowed Chinese trillions. Compared to what might have been, it's been restful, almost crickets. Not perfect, but a pleasant change.
 
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Biden's presidency has been marked by boredom (no daily Trumped up drama and grievances), accomplishments (The infrastructure bill that Trump promised by couldn't deliver), quietly resolving the debt limit curfuffle with Mega House Pubs (no ranting or name calling), revitalizing our relations with allies and NATO, and steering the US through the inflation resulting from Trump's borrowed Chinese trillions. Compared to what might have been, it's been restful, almost crickets. Not perfect, but a pleasant change.
Keep your head down... Charlie's in the trees..
 
Fitch downgrades US long term debt. Far too many people lack the basic understanding of what’s occurring on the economic front and choose instead to focus on political nonsense. The following paints a pretty bleak picture of where we are and where we’re going. Zero leadership by anyone on DC


Rising General Government Deficits: We expect the general government (GG) deficit to rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022, reflecting cyclically weaker federal revenues, new spending initiatives and a higher interest burden. Additionally, state and local governments are expected to run an overall deficit of 0.6% of GDP this year after running a small surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2022. Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook, with cumulative savings of USD1.5 trillion (3.9% of GDP) by 2033 according to the Congressional Budget Office. The near-term impact of the Act is estimated at USD70 billion (0.3% of GDP) in 2024 and USD112 billion (0.4% of GDP) in 2025. Fitch does not expect any further substantive fiscal consolidation measures ahead of the November 2024 elections.

Fitch forecasts a GG deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and a further widening to 6.9% of GDP in 2025. The larger deficits will be driven by weak 2024 GDP growth, a higher interest burden and wider state and local government deficits of 1.2% of GDP in 2024-2025 (in line with the historical 20-year average). The interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to reach 10% by 2025 (compared to 2.8% for the 'AA' median and 1% for the 'AAA' median) due to the higher debt level as well as sustained higher interest rates compared with pre-pandemic levels.
 
Fitch downgrades US long term debt. Far too many people lack the basic understanding of what’s occurring on the economic front and choose instead to focus on political nonsense. The following paints a pretty bleak picture of where we are and where we’re going. Zero leadership by anyone on DC


Rising General Government Deficits: We expect the general government (GG) deficit to rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022, reflecting cyclically weaker federal revenues, new spending initiatives and a higher interest burden. Additionally, state and local governments are expected to run an overall deficit of 0.6% of GDP this year after running a small surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2022. Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook, with cumulative savings of USD1.5 trillion (3.9% of GDP) by 2033 according to the Congressional Budget Office. The near-term impact of the Act is estimated at USD70 billion (0.3% of GDP) in 2024 and USD112 billion (0.4% of GDP) in 2025. Fitch does not expect any further substantive fiscal consolidation measures ahead of the November 2024 elections.

Fitch forecasts a GG deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and a further widening to 6.9% of GDP in 2025. The larger deficits will be driven by weak 2024 GDP growth, a higher interest burden and wider state and local government deficits of 1.2% of GDP in 2024-2025 (in line with the historical 20-year average). The interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to reach 10% by 2025 (compared to 2.8% for the 'AA' median and 1% for the 'AAA' median) due to the higher debt level as well as sustained higher interest rates compared with pre-pandemic levels.
They also mention the constant game of chicken when it comes to raising the debt ceiling. The last time we were downgraded was after the debt ceiling fight in 2011.
 
They also mention the constant game of chicken when it comes to raising the debt ceiling. The last time we were downgraded was after the debt ceiling fight in 2011.
Debt ceiling game is easy to fix. The rest is not and won’t be anytime soon. We’re digging ourselves a hole and no one seems to care because it doesn’t fit into a sixty second sound bite. Hell….even our leadership isn’t addressing this growing problem. Why…because it’s not viewed as politically advantageous.

Project deficit for 2024 now up to $1.6T and will grow to almost $3T by 2033. Medicare and SS outlooks are daunting. Our political leaders certainly don’t want to talk about it and the media is more than happy to ignore the approaching cliff as well. No one will care until it’s too late and then our two beloved political parties will simply point their fingers at each other.
 
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Debt ceiling game is easy to fix. The rest is not and won’t be anytime soon. We’re digging ourselves a hole and no one seems to care because it doesn’t fit into a sixty second sound bite. Hell….even our leadership isn’t addressing this growing problem. Why…because it’s not viewed as politically advantageous.
By either party. Won't change unless a new party line is adopted by either party.
 
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By either party. Won't change unless a new party line is adopted by either party.
I’m not optimistic. The two parties are two busy playing gotcha with Hunter Biden, Joe Biden and Donald Trump than having constructive hearings on how we’re going to deal with the skyrocketing deficits in the coming years. Not to mention our rising debt service costs and growing outlays for SS and Medicare. Something will have to give.
 
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I’m not optimistic. The two parties are two busy playing gotcha with Hunter Biden, Joe Biden and Donald Trump than having constructive hearings on how we’re going to deal with the skyrocketing deficits in the coming years. Not to mention our rising debt service costs and growing outlays for SS and Medicare. Something will have to give.
As a whole the Republican party pretended to care but didn't really do anything about it. The Democrats hardly ever acted like they cared, unless it was easy. Like when Clinton had the Tech bubble make a surplus easy to achieve.
 
I’m not optimistic. The two parties are two busy playing gotcha with Hunter Biden, Joe Biden and Donald Trump than having constructive hearings on how we’re going to deal with the skyrocketing deficits in the coming years. Not to mention our rising debt service costs and growing outlays for SS and Medicare. Something will have to give.
It’s not gotcha with Hunter Biden. No one gives a crap if Hunter Biden goes to jail.
 
Just crickets. Both parties know this doesn’t get fixed quickly. No political gain for some pain today which pays off ten years down the road. So we just continue to kick the can down the road until the can breaks.

 
Sadly, neither party cares. The DC thinking, aside from it being career suicide, is that it isn’t a big deal while the dollar is the reserve currency. It is flawed thinking, at some point that’ll change.

I don’t really know what a realistic solution is either. We need leaders that are truly servant leaders who are not focused on re-election and extending their political career. And we need better financial literacy in the general population.
 
Along this theme is the consistent reporting that in private congressmen from both parties are more centrist and are appalled by our political divisions, especiallyTrump's disregard for democratic norms. But in public those same congressmen and women toe a party line. As result poll after poll shows that voters, especially younger voters, do not believe our system of government still works. If everyone believes that, who will protect democracy?


 
Along this theme is the consistent reporting that in private congressmen from both parties are more centrist and are appalled by our political divisions, especiallyTrump's disregard for democratic norms. But in public those same congressmen and women toe a party line. As result poll after poll shows that voters, especially younger voters, do not believe our system of government still works. If everyone believes that, who will protect democracy?


Trump huh

Trust in the presidency dropped to 23%, down 15% from 2021, reflecting a declining approval rate for President Joe Biden.
 
Trump huh

Trust in the presidency dropped to 23%, down 15% from 2021, reflecting a declining approval rate for President Joe Biden.
Joe Biden is Vanilla Ice Cream. No one votes for vanilla ice cream unless the other option is your grandma’s fruit cake.
 
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Apparently no one trusts vanilla ice cream either.
Would you trust someone who said their favorite ice cream flavor was vanilla? I sure as heck wouldn’t. Even if they were telling the truth… the mundanity is suspicious lol.
 
Would you trust someone who said their favorite ice cream flavor was vanilla? I sure as heck wouldn’t. Even if they were telling the truth… the mundanity is suspicious lol.
After 4 years of being forced to eat my mother in laws fruit cake, vanilla is a satisfying change.
 
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