Climate change

[watu05]

Will this be another case of anti-science deniers making the outcome worse than it has to be? Actually it already is. But as we've seen with the anti-vaxers, many have experience the down sides personally before they will accept the science.

A Hotter Future Is Certain, Climate Panel Warns. But How Hot Is Up to Us. (Published 2021)

Some devastating impacts of global warming are now unavoidable, a major new scientific report finds. But there is still a short window to stop things from getting even worse.

www.nytimes.com

 

[URedskin54]

 

[lawpoke87]

The hypocrisy on this subject is astounding. When will Mr. Kerry accept the science or does he accept it except when it’s inconvenient for him?

 

[aTUfan]

climate change is real. But it is a knee jerk reaction to blame it all on humans and co2, when it has happened before man arrived.

 

[watu05]

Big countries are still the worst offenders and dragging their feet. It's interesting that people claim it is too expensive to do take climate change as seriously as the science indicates, but once you reach a tipping point and it's both experientially felt and existential in outcome, people will pay anything (OK, maybe not DeSantis, but most people). As old as I am, I expect to around when the "DOH' moment hits. Prevention is cheaper than cure, especially if there is no cure because it's irreversible.

Climate Change Is a ‘Hammer Hitting Us on the Head,’ Developing Nations Say (Published 2021)

Leaders of vulnerable countries, as well as activists, said Monday’s blistering United Nations report must galvanize global action. But major emitters are dragging their heels.

www.nytimes.com

 

[lawpoke87]

Until China and India gets onboard there is zero the US or anyone else can do to prevent the world from reaching said point. We better start investing time and money to better deal with a warming climate as it appears these countries aren’t going to do sh*t.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

 

[URedskin54]

The rapid industrialization of the 3rd world, which is going to happen sooner or later, will make co2 output in the US look like nothing. Given the positive health outcomes that come with industrialization increased global co2 is not only inevitable, but also actually a *moral good*. Everything that adds to the cost of resources in these countries will slow growth and improvements and result in needless deaths over time. Those worried about the effects of a warming climate should focus on technology that mitigates effects, not doing things that artificially raise energy costs to reduce co2 here, which is already declining without legislation and at its lowest level since the early 90s. Unless you halt growth in poorer countries (which is most of the world’s population) nothing the US or Europe do will actually matter.

 

[noble cane]

It will all be OK... every body crank up the AC, open your fridges and freezers, and open all the doors and windows of your houses! We can reverse it and cool the earth if we all sacrifice and work together!

 

[noble cane]

The hypocrisy on this subject is astounding. When will Mr. Kerry accept the science or does he accept it except when it’s inconvenient for him?

View embedded media

I wonder if he had a problem with all of the propane heaters and fire pits at the party as well? I counted 20 or so in the photos.

 

[watu05]

July was Earth’s hottest month on record, NOAA says

The announcement comes four days after the United Nations issued an alarming report about the urgent threat of climate change.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[lawpoke87]

Going to get hotter. China burning more and more coal and Mr. Kerry going here and there on his private jet. Time to invest money in dealing with climate change instead of throwing all our resources and efforts at a plan which is mathematically certain to fail.

 

[astonmartin708]

Going to get hotter. China burning more and more coal and Mr. Kerry going here and there on his private jet. Time to invest money in dealing with climate change instead of throwing all our resources and efforts at a plan which is mathematically certain to fail.

Where are they getting their coal from? Our exports are down. Australia?

 

[lawpoke87]

Where are they getting their coal from? Our exports are down. Australia?

Google says over 96%

 

[GoldenCaneKC]

Mr. Kerry going here and there on his private jet.

I mean, that climate’s not going to change itself, am I right?

 

[watu05]

I mean, that climate’s not going to change itself, am I right?

The climate can definitely change all by itself, but not this fast. The changes that are now happening in decades would take many centuries or longer to occur without an exogenous force like a meteor hitting the earth, massive volcanic eruptions or carbon from industrialization affecting the climate.

 

[TUMe]

July was Earth’s hottest month on record, NOAA says

The announcement comes four days after the United Nations issued an alarming report about the urgent threat of climate change.

www.nbcnews.com

So how old is Earth compared to NOAA?

 

[aTUfan]

Methane is 20 time worse than co2.

A major source of Methane is landfills.
We have more landfills now because we dont burn our garbage
Many years ago we stopped burning garbage because it caused pollution.

we didnt change anything, just pushed it in a different direction.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Where are they getting their coal from? Our exports are down. Australia?

Google says over 96%

96% from Australia, indonesia, mongolia, and russia. Not just Australia, and list is in order of importing levels. Of that 96% aussies/40.5%, indo's/25.1%, mongo's/19%, and russkies/15.4%. So aussies lead at 38.9%(40.5 x .96) of their imports.

 

[noble cane]

The climate can definitely change all by itself, but not this fast. The changes that are now happening in decades would take many centuries or longer to occur without an exogenous force like a meteor hitting the earth, massive volcanic eruptions or carbon from industrialization affecting the climate.

Aint ever cooked a brisket before, have ya?
Or distilled whiskey.

 

[Clong83a]

There are documented incidents where a massive volcano spewing aerosols into the atmosphere caused measurable global cooling for months or even years after the event. Volcanic aerosols break down and dissipate and have a temporary effect, so things always revert back within a few years. CO2 actually is kinda the same, but it takes a lot longer to get reabsorbed by the oceans or broken down, so it piles up in the atmosphere.

So, for the doubters that claim it is hubris to assume humans could alter the climate, I ask: Is the total sum emission output of worldwide industrial production not essentially the equivalent of a massive volcano spewing gasses into the atmosphere constantly? If a volcano can have a measurable effect, then why not human emissions? We have measurably and undeniably altered the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.


There are a lot of impediments to long term solutions, as many have pointed out. Emerging economies, China, John Kerry's travel budget, etc. But none of that is an excuse to not do our part. China is not our role model for how to act internationally or domestically, and neither is John Kerry. The more we practice what we preach and pull our own weight, the more legitimate international pressure we can put on Chinese authorities. Otherwise they will keep doing what they do and (somewhat rightfully) calling out our hypocrisy.

Emerging economies are admittedly trickier, and I don't claim to have any great answers. I only wish to convince you that the problem is actually real.

Please note I am not claiming to know exactly how much warming we will face or how fast it will happen. Anyone that does is selling snakeoil. Lots of legitimate models show lots of possible outcomes due to increasing CO2 presence, some manageable, some catastrophic. The one thing they all have in common? Warming.

 

[Clong83a]

Reported that the global temp in july was the hottest ever. This is determined by recording temperature average variances at 2600 world wide locations and then averaging them together. They reported .02 degrees increase


is it really global? if 2500 were cooler by .01 degrees and 100 were warmer by
.5 degrees the average is .02

fun with math and and statistics.

Yeah, that's what an average is. And sure, it can obscure realities like the one you suggest. That's why it is important to look at all kinds of metrics beyond just the average. But in any case, that's not what is happening here.

July 2021 was 1.67 degrees above the 20th century average, not 0.02 degrees. Here's the temperature anomalies they used plotted worldwide. It's a little more "2000 points were warmer than normal and 600 were lower" than the other way around. Also note that this map is comparing against the 1980-2010 worldwide averages, not the 20th century average, which is why I am also including the Z-score maps which illustrate how statistically anomalous things really are.

And last but not least, some context with recent historical trends, lest you try to argue that it was just a fluke year:

 

[Clong83a]

Wh

fun with Average

company has 100 employees that make $50k and the owner makes $1,000,000. The total payroll is $6,000,000 so the average salary at the company is $59,400.

A variance of about 20% from the average to the actual.

Which is why it is helpful to look at the underlying data to see if there are a few bad data points skewing the whole thing. In your example, a spreadsheet of all employees and their salaries. In mine, a map of global temperature anomalies. Which I displayed. You're welcome.

There's not one flukish region on earth that is 30 degrees above normal while everything else is near or even below average.

 

[aTUfan]

after we fix global warming, what should we focus on next? eliminate earthquakes, stop volcanoes, control the tides,

 

[aTUfan]

now newsom bans non auto equipment with small gas motors. This will kill many small businesses that can't afford to change their equipment, people will lose their jobs and it will increase the cost of services that are able to convert.

so those items will be replaced with electric power; battery and corded.

New problems: The extra demand on the electrical system to run the corded items, and charge the batteries. then what to do with increase of dead batteries,

 

[aTUfan]

i saw a report that John Kerry negotiating with China to accept and adapt climate change policies. If CC, according to the left, is so obvious and eminent , why do we have to bribe any gov to get on board? Meanwhile we are spending billions and wrecking our economy.

climate change is real. so are volcanoes and earthquakes. we have no control any of them.

 

[watu05]

It interesting to see how cc deniers go from decades of denying (so nothing gets done) to suddenly giving up with no stop in between.

 

[lawpoke87]

Why what the US does has little effect on climate change going forward

Despite Pledges to Cut Emissions, China Goes on a Coal Spree

China is building large numbers of coal-fired power plants to drive its post-pandemic economy. The government has promised a CO2 emissions peak by 2030, but the new coal binge jeopardizes both China’s decarbonization plans and global efforts to tackle climate change.

e360.yale.edu

 

[URedskin54]

WATU ❤️ CCP

 

[Gmoney4WW]

It interesting to see how cc deniers go from decades of denying (so nothing gets done) to suddenly giving up with no stop in between.

Maybe because the cost of doing anything significant would require require cooperation that will never happen, and would bankrupt entire economies. When you finally admit it in the late 2010's, instead of the 80's or 90's, it happens that way.

 

[URedskin54]

I think the point is that even when you accept every catastrophic prediction as 100% accurate and accept the premise that a reduction in CO2 via government action would fix the problem, there are literally zero solutions that actually accomplish the goal without condemning the world’s poor to remain in poverty, whether it is done now or was done 30 years ago. Industrialization produces tons of CO2 and preventing industrialization has dire consequences. You can’t create infrastructure and produce power for billions in a developing country like China without producing a lot of CO2, and it would dumb to try to stop it. There is nothing we can do here or in Europe to offset what will happen elsewhere.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Technology 20 or 30 years from now, might have handled it much better if we had that technology in the 70's.(Would have been a much more efficient way of slowing down the effects of industrialization then, with immediate and near future tech.)

The majority of scientists didn't realize it as being imminent, technology or no, back then. If scientists as a mass, who were respected in the 70's, hadn't grasped it as being a solid threat back then, then why would the public.

We're a little too late to the party as a civilization. Public & political procrastination for any problem taking this long to develop is always a problem, when it takes civilization wide cooperation, and sacrifice.

 

[watu05]

Maybe because the cost of doing anything significant would require require cooperation that will never happen, and would bankrupt entire economies. When you finally admit it in the late 2010's, instead of the 80's or 90's, it happens that way.

When people finally realize that they are facing a life or death choice, whining about cost will be replaced with "do something". By then it may be too late and the costs will be staggering compared to earlier mitigation costs.

People think 'a global warming?'', "gosh I'll turn up the aircon", but we or our kids will face the costs of our largest cities being submerged, insects needing warmer climates spreading north destroying crops and spreading new diseases, hordes of people fleeing north from inhabitable climates, diminished crop yields from excessive heat, etc.

Our kids and grandkids will never refer to us as "the greatest generation". Not sure what the opposite is, but they will come up with it..

 

[astonmartin708]

I think the point is that even when you accept every catastrophic prediction as 100% accurate and accept the premise that a reduction in CO2 via government action would fix the problem, there are literally zero solutions that actually accomplish the goal without condemning the world’s poor to remain in poverty, whether it is done now or was done 30 years ago. Industrialization produces tons of CO2 and preventing industrialization has dire consequences. You can’t create infrastructure and produce power for billions in a developing country like China without producing a lot of CO2, and it would dumb to try to stop it. There is nothing we can do here or in Europe to offset what will happen elsewhere.

That’s a very deafeatist attitude. Sounds like someone trying to convince Kennedy not to fund the Space Race.

Just because you don’t believe something can be done does not excuse not trying, if what has to be done is an imperative. Yes there will be consequences that we will have to address along the way. (Like how to industrialize third world societies without using the same benefits that we had when we were industrializing)

 

[astonmartin708]

When people finally realize that they are facing a life or death choice, whining about cost will be replaced with "do something". By then it may be too late and the costs will be staggering compared to earlier mitigation costs.

People think 'a global warming?'', "gosh I'll turn up the aircon", but we or our kids will face the costs of our largest cities being submerged, insects needing warmer climates spreading north destroying crops and spreading new diseases, hordes of people fleeing north from inhabitable climates, diminished crop yields from excessive heat, etc.

Our kids and grandkids will never refer to us as "the greatest generation". Not sure what the opposite is, but they will come up with it..

I don’t frame it as life or death in terms of a knife to your throat… it’s more like a lobster being placed in a pot that’s being gradually heated. By the time you actually feel the total effect, you’re already doomed

If there is one thing I believe in, it’s the near perpetual level of human ingenuity. We have an imperative problem that we have to solve and the easiest path forward is not the one that will save us.

 

[lawpoke87]

That’s a very deafeatist attitude. Sounds like someone trying to convince Kennedy not to fund the Space Race.

Just because you don’t believe something can be done does not excuse not trying, if what has to be done is an imperative. Yes there will be consequences that we will have to address along the way. (Like how to industrialize third world societies without using the same benefits that we had when we were industrializing)

Instead of saying “nothing can be done” a better characterization might be “our current plan has no chance of success based on numbers and science”. If a plan is certain to fail it’s foolhardy to continue to devote resources into the same. Probably time to start looking at other plans and options.

 

[URedskin54]

That’s a very deafeatist attitude. Sounds like someone trying to convince Kennedy not to fund the Space Race.

If the space race involved forcing the third world to remain in poverty then sure

 

[astonmartin708]

If the space race involved forcing the third world to remain in poverty then sure

Poverty is not solved by industry alone. Many places that have massive amounts of poverty have that poverty because of societal issues more than industrial ones.

 

[watu05]

I don’t frame it as life or death in terms of a knife to your throat… it’s more like a lobster being placed in a pot that’s being gradually heated. By the time you actually feel the total effect, you’re already doomed

I think of frogs in a pot of warming water. They could jump out but don't until it is too late and they are cooked. But thinking solely in terms of 'heat' or warming is very limited. The host of problems that come with climate change ranges from flooding (Texas and Lousiana are already taking it), to mass migration, to more pandemics, to crop damage, to water scarity (check out the Colorado river these days).

If there is one thing I believe in, it’s the near perpetual level of human ingenuity. We have an imperative problem that we have to solve and the easiest path forward is not the one that will save us.

Well that's what many are counting on, but there's likely a tipping point beyond which even human ingenuity is too late. It's the siren song for doing nothing or letting someone else do it. The excuse that it's too expensive is another sad excuse; mitigation now will be vastly cheaper than correction later.

 

[URedskin54]

Yes yes every single problem in the world is climate change

 

[lawpoke87]

I’ve asked this question a thousand times and I’ve yet to receive an answer. Can someone provide me with a plan the U S can implement which will keep the world under the 2 degree drop dead line given the current path much of the rest of the world is on? Every US proposal I’ve seen leaves out one important factor….it doesn’t come close to reducing worldwide emissions to a level remotely within the necessary range.