2024 Election prediction/discussion

[lawpoke87]

The 2024 election is now a month away and this board is dead. Let’s get some predictions and discussions going. Here’s what I see on 10-7-24

Harris got a nice post convention bump and jumped out to a 4-5 point lead nationally. Trump has had a nice 2 week stretch and looks to have cut that lead to 1-3 points. Trump has also gained in the battlegrounds. Looks like a tossup as of today imo. Harris needs to win by 3 points nationally to win the electoral college due to her huge margins on the coasts. Watch the polls carefully these next two weeks. Does the Harris slide continue, stall or reverse. Will any candidate make a significant blunder?

Race comes down to Ga, NC, PA, MI, Wis, Zona and Nevada. These states will once again be very close. Which is why a 1-2 point swing nationally in these final four weeks will be the deciding factor. Watch the national numbers as well as reliable state polling.

Tulsa Mayoral Race….haven’t seen any polling here but my sense is that it’s Keith’s race to lose. Strange dynamics at play here with two Dems running. Keith is running to attract independents and Pubs while Nichols has embraced the local Dem party. Have to think in a presidential election cycle the correct strategy here is Keith’s.

 

[aTUfan]

The 2024 election is now a month away and this board is dead. Let’s get some predictions and discussions going. Here’s what I see on 10-7-24

Harris got a nice post convention bump and jumped out to a 4-5 point lead nationally. Trump has had a nice 2 week stretch and looks to have cut that lead to 1-3 points. Trump has also gained in the battlegrounds. Looks like a tossup as of today imo. Harris needs to win by 3 points nationally to win the electoral college due to her huge margins on the coasts. Watch the polls carefully these next two weeks. Does the Harris slide continue, stall or reverse. Will any candidate make a significant blunder?

Race comes down to Ga, NC, PA, MI, Wis, Zona and Nevada. These states will once again be very close. Which is why a 1-2 point swing nationally in these final four weeks will be the deciding factor. Watch the national numbers as well as reliable state polling.

Tulsa Mayoral Race….haven’t seen any polling here but my sense is that it’s Keith’s race to lose. Strange dynamics at play here with two Dems running. Keith is running to attract independents and Pubs while Nichols has embraced the local Dem party. Have to think in a presidential election cycle the correct strategy here is Keith’s.

national count is irrelevant.

 

[lawpoke87]

national count is irrelevant.

To a point. Harris +4 or above and she wins the EC. Harris +3 and the EC will be close. Harris +2 or below and Trump wins.

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

If Trump loses again does he throw a big tantrum again and try to overturn the election? Do his supporters go trash the capitol again? He doesn't have any consequences for doing it.

 

[aTUfan]

If Trump loses again does he throw a big tantrum again and try to overturn the election? Do his supporters go trash the capitol again? He doesn't have any consequences for doing it.

or do dems just stuff ballot boxes and allow illegals to vote; ie Arizona dems were caught regeresting know illegals.

 

[lawpoke87]

FBI just arrested an Afghan man who was planning a mass terrorist even on Election Day in Oklahoma.

Afghan National Arrested in Oklahoma for Alleged ISIS-Linked Election Day Attack Plot

An Afghan national residing in Oklahoma was arrested on Oct. 7 for allegedly plotting a terrorist attack on Election Day on behalf of ISIS, the Department of Justice (DOJ) said. Oklahoma City resident Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, is accused of conspiring to carry out a violent attack targeting large...

www.ntd.com

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

How does one register an illegal? It is impossible. So stupid.

or do dems just stuff ballot boxes and allow illegals to vote; ie Arizona dems were caught regeresting know illegals.

 

[TulsaRulzOSUdrools]

FBI just arrested an Afghan man who was planning a mass terrorist even on Election Day in Oklahoma.

Afghan National Arrested in Oklahoma for Alleged ISIS-Linked Election Day Attack Plot

An Afghan national residing in Oklahoma was arrested on Oct. 7 for allegedly plotting a terrorist attack on Election Day on behalf of ISIS, the Department of Justice (DOJ) said. Oklahoma City resident Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, is accused of conspiring to carry out a violent attack targeting large...

www.ntd.com

I am just glad we have Facebook marketplaces and gun shows where these kinds of homeboys can walk in and buy rifles for these affairs. It is so great.

 

[lawpoke87]

I am just glad we have Facebook marketplaces and gun shows where these kinds of homeboys can walk in and buy rifles for these affairs. It is so great.

Except Afghan homeboy was trying to buy the guns from under ground sources and not a gun show. I assume because he had previously been arrested and then released and would not pass a background check.

 

[lawpoke87]

Not sure I understand why a Pub would hold a campaign event in NY one week prior to the election ?

Trump to hold rally at New York's Madison Square Garden ahead of Election Day | Fox News

Madison Square Garden is a 19,500-seat venue

www.foxnews.com

 

[aTUfan]

How does one register an illegal? It is impossible. So stupid.

they hand them a registration card and help them fill ot out, outside the dmv. No ID required. on tape by a local TV station

 

[lawpoke87]

Both candidates going full speed ahead trying to buy votes despite out $36T debt. Harris promises “free” $25k targeted at immigrants buying their first home while Trump proposes to make interest on car loans fully deductible. Guess our $2T yearly debt service bill isn’t enough.

 

[aTUfan]

Both candidates going full speed ahead trying to buy votes despite out $36T debt. Harris promises “free” $25k targeted at immigrants buying their first home while Trump proposes to make interest on car loans fully deductible. Guess our $2T yearly debt service bill isn’t enough.

one proposes giving tax incentives, the other proposes giving tax dollars.

 

[astonmartin708]

Both candidates going full speed ahead trying to buy votes despite out $36T debt. Harris promises “free” $25k targeted at immigrants buying their first home while Trump proposes to make interest on car loans fully deductible. Guess our $2T yearly debt service bill isn’t enough.

I have not seen any mention of Harris' home loan plan targeted at immigrants (which won't happen because she won't have a congressional majority)


Now on the other hand, please tell me how it's okay for Elon Musk to get up on stage with Trump and for Trump to days later propose a welfare program for Tesla stock holders?

 

[astonmartin708]

one proposes giving tax incentives, the other proposes giving tax dollars.

There is no tangible difference in that when it comes to the national debt.

 

[aTUfan]

There is no tangible difference in that when it comes to the national debt.

tax deduction, I get to keep money I earned,
the other gives someone else money I earned

 

[astonmartin708]

tax deduction, I get to keep money I earned,
the other gives someone else money I earned

This is such a dumb comment.

You get to pay less taxes than someone who doesn't have a car loan. Why? For what reason? Why do you deserve that?

 

[aTUfan]

This is such a dumb comment.

You get to pay less taxes than someone who doesn't have a car loan. Why? For what reason? Why do you deserve that?

someone with more kids pays less.

 

[lawpoke87]

I have not seen any mention of Harris' home loan plan targeted at immigrants (which won't happen because she won't have a congressional majority)


Now on the other hand, please tell me how it's okay for Elon Musk to get up on stage with Trump and for Trump to days later propose a welfare program for Tesla stock holders?

You don’t believe a program which gives special tax credits to first generation home buyers is targeting immigrants?

Not sure making interest on car loans deductible is going to have a significant factor on vehicle sales. Lenders might see an uptick in business as some buyers go from cash to credit. I don’t see much else though.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

As of today, the polling averages are:

PA - Trump +0.1%
MI - Harris +0.1%
GA - Even

Whoever takes 2 of the 3 will win.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

tax deduction, I get to keep money I earned,
the other gives someone else money I earned

Just another thing to complain about you always being a victim. You and Trump have that in common\

 

[Gmoney4WW]

You don’t believe a program which gives special tax credits to first generation home buyers is targeting immigrants?

Those taking advantage are the underclass. So you think denying the underclass so immigrants don't get an advantage is ok? My mom got her first house because they made advantages for the underclass to buy a home in the 70's. I'd say there will be less immigrants taking advantage of this than the overall underclass.

 

[lawpoke87]

Those taking advantage are the underclass. So you think denying the underclass so immigrants don't get an advantage is ok? My mom got her first house because they made advantages for the underclass to buy a home in the 70's. I'd say there will be less immigrants taking advantage of this than the overall underclass.

I never said I wasn’t ok with the proposal. I simply stated that both candidates were proposing more spending at a time we’re running a $2T a year deficit. In fact, since I’m in the real estate business, this proposal would directly benefit me personally. Our budget deficit along with our rising debt service costs remain a concern of mine.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

I never said I wasn’t ok with the proposal. I simply stated that both candidates were proposing more spending at a time we’re running a $2T a year deficit. In fact, since I’m in the real estate business, this proposal would directly benefit me personally. Our budget deficit along with our rising debt service costs remain a concern of mine.

You said it was bent towards immigrants. I think that was considered a bonus by Harris, not the reason for the proposal. Besides, it is also meant to spur new housing being built as well, I would think.

 

[lawpoke87]

You said it was bent towards immigrants. I think that was considered a bonus by Harris, not the reason for the proposal. Besides, it is also meant to spur new housing being built as well, I would think.

New immigrants would be the group by percentage most affected by this tax credit. Housing needs a jump start. Inflation and rising interest rates have resulted in unaffordable housing for a large segment of our population. Lower interest rates would have the most significant effect in spurring new housing but I don’t see that in the foreseeable future.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

New immigrants would be the group by percentage most affected by this tax credit. Housing needs a jump start. Inflation and rising interest rates have resulted in unaffordable housing for a large segment of our population. Lower interest rates would have the most significant effect in spurring new housing but I don’t see that in the foreseeable future.

By percentage, not overall. So what, that the group most affected by percentage was immigrants. That does not mean the #er's overall are anywhere near equal. That's semantics to use that figure and say it was proposed mainly for immigrants.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

can the gov do anything without spending money?

Of course not, that's a silly question. Anything the government does costs money. Even if it is putting out messages that a certain thing is bad for your health. If a government is doing anything worthwhile, it costs money. It costs money to do the study, it costs money to put out the messages that most people see. It's that way with anything. The only way the government can do anything that even cuts costs to the taxpayer, is through having a group of people pay for it. Speeding tickets help people stay safe on the road and it cuts costs by charging those that speed. A fund that helps out victims who have had crimes committed against them, is paid for by those who have committed crimes. Those that commit crimes, help clean our highways with their mandatory labor. Legislation to stop pollution is helped by corporations committing violations, and paying fines. But somebody pays for everything the government does.

Anarchy costs the public too, and that's leaving government undone.

 

[lawpoke87]

By percentage, not overall. So what, that the group most affected by percentage was immigrants. That does not mean the #er's overall are anywhere near equal. That's semantics to use that figure and say it was proposed mainly for immigrants.

We call out laws all the time which disproportionately affect a certain minority group. Is pointing that out only permissible when said law has a negative impact ?

All three MSM networks have national polls out this am. They are:

Tie
Harris +2
Harris +2

Harris likely has to perform better than the aggregate here to win the presidency. Will late deciders break for her ? Is Trump’s ceiling 48%? Election remains very very close.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

We call out laws all the time which disproportionately affect a certain minority group. Is pointing that out only permissible when said law has a negative impact ?

All three MSM networks have national polls out this am. They are:

Tie
Harris +2
Harris +2

Harris likely has to perform better than the aggregate here to win the presidency. Will late deciders break for her ? Is Trump’s ceiling 48%? Election remains very very close.

If it has a negative impact on a minority or the majority is usually the modus operandi for mentioning that. If it is not its main intent, and it doesn't affect any one group negatively it is not usually mentioned.

 

[lawpoke87]

Looks like another attempt on Trump’s life.