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2024 Election prediction/discussion

Chris Harmon
astonmartin708 said:
You only analyze the very surface of an issue.
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It is completely clear that what I'm analyzing are the statements that were made...the words that were used....and that the audience can take those words in a number of ways...some rational and some irrational. Obviously, candidates should be very careful about what they say, and I think both campaigns did a poor job in that area this time around. That was my point from the beginning. And it cannot be okay for one party to use certain phrases, regardless of tone or situation, yet completely wrong for another party to use those phrases.

If a person feels that something is good when their preferred party does it, but also feels the same thing is bad when the opposing party does it, I'm not sure what other term to use than bias.

IMO, it's these types of conversations that keep moderates from speaking up. Topics always get tied up with semantics, and then it goes in circles forever. It's why I rarely post in Crossfire. I'll check back in about 6 months.
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Unintelligent voting precinct procedures!

HuffyCane
Gmoney4WW said:
(Responses correspond to paragraphs above and below.)

1) They are digitally signed. I don't know if public inspection happens regularly, and/or upon request, but IIRC it does happen.

2) Yeah hand counted ballots and machine counted ballots both have their weaknesses. Both weaknesses can be addressed by putting stop gap measures in, that catch them in most instances.

3) I have problems about anybody being involved in someone who is mentally unable to process thought on a basic level necessary to make a decision on a candidate. There is 2 voters in my precinct, who appear unable to do that, and they come in with their relative, who casts their '2nd vote' in the election. I am fairly certain that their votes don't vary in who they both voted for, ever. One is senile, the other is mentally handicapped. So political operatives of either party going into nursing homes would bother me as well. Even if their motives were good, which they usually aren't, there is too much room for voter influence or direct voter control in unsupervised situations like that. If anybody goes into a nursing home it should be a panel of precinct officials from both parties similar to those found at a local polling location.

4) I was thinking the same thing about you.
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Well, everybody has a right to an absentee ballot, right? So the absentee ballots go to one address in the hospital. So the ballots go to the social director, head nurse, business manager, etc. Who sometimes just fills them out for the comatose patients. And he/she “helps” color in the oval for the others. So the local party machine just places their operatives in those positions to achieve the desired yield without being to sloppy or obvious about it. Of course when they bus everybody over to the casino once a month but can’t bus everyone to the polls, because problems, it gets a little too obvious.

Meanwhile Elder Home Village pushes to social media photos of grandma with her new friends in the cafeteria wearing red white and blue “casting” her last ballot. Huge problems with this, from both parties, in AZ, TX and FL.

The mail in ballot, absentee ballot scams go into the thousands. It would take a dozen threads to list just the best ones.
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Fire him TOMORROW!

C
drboobay said:
I never want to lose. To me, the best outcome is four consecutive wins to close the season. Not holding my breath for that.
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Montgomery did that in 2021. He did benefit from the Tulane kicker missing a chip shot field goal that would have dropped TU to 3-7. But that team had more fight in them than this year's squad. They need to play like they did in the second half vs. UTSA.
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Mo State game thread

TU_BLA
lawpoke87 said:
Disappointed in the loss but not the effort. The ladies took Valley preseason #5 team to the final buzzer on the road. The ladies look capable of making some noise in the AAC this season.
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They need to ID some additional scorers to pull some pressure off of Crawford. Cartwright needs to do more and be more consistent. Hill needs to be one of those options and maybe Clack. Right now there's a lot of inconsistency.
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USMNT New Era

TU_BLA
An interesting question was posed after Brad Guzan stood on his head for Atlanta United against Inter Miami in the MLS playoffs to send Messi, Busquets, Jordi Alba, and Luis Suarez to the golf course this weekend. Should Guzan be getting some USMNT call ups? He's better than any current players in the pool in distribution and with his feet. He makes more A+ saves than most of the other GKs in the pool with the possible exception of Turner.

The only thing hampering Guzan is his age, at nearly 40. But his play is still pretty exemplary and high level.
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Unintelligent voting precinct procedures!

astonmartin708
lawpoke87 said:
This latest conspiracy theory seems to be pertinent to this discussion

www.newsweek.com

Left-wing "Starlink" election conspiracy theory spreads online

Conspiracy theorists allege that Starlink, a satellite constellation developed by Elon Musk's SpaceX, was connected to voting machines.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
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Would be nearly impossible to prove even if it were true.

Sick some journalists and statisticians on it for the next two years... maybe it turns into Watergate but in all likelihood not. I don't want the Dems to sink to the level of the Pubs in calling fouls.
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Fire him TOMORROW!

G
PiKA1000 said:
If you are talking about Guerrieri who jumped from TU to Indiana after 3 days on the job (yes, I know it was longer) he’s not even on the staff at Indiana this season. Cignetti brought his DC from JMU with him.

Are you talking about Tom Allen (Penn St DC)?
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Wow, I never even looked at the Indiana staff for this year to check if Guerrieri was still on it. I just assumed he was. So he left us for one year of failing to coach at the level Cignetti desired!
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2024 Election prediction/discussion

D
astonmartin708 said:
To not acknowledge key differences in the tones, the surrounding messages (a concession speech vs a non-concession speech), the events leading up to the speeches (multiple weeks of telling people the election was rigged) show immaturity. You only analyze the very surface of an issue.
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I agree that context matters in comparing the statements. But name calling is pointless. Maybe it makes YOU feel better or superior for a little while but accomplishes little else IMO.
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Unintelligent voting precinct procedures!

G
HuffyCane said:
1) You gave a more lengthy statement of airgapping, which is what I was describing. It’s good to know that OK uses memory card/thumb drives locally, so long as they are digitally signed to prevent duplication and there’s public inspection available of those signatures. And assuming that isn’t the only air gap that occurs, as I glossed over above.

2) Least favorite: local election chief who turned a blind eye to subordinates who used spare ballot bags and old seals to cover up a strategy of slow counting a multi jurisdictional race so they didn’t report their totals until they knew the margin they needed to make up to ensure their candidate won and using very cleverly disguised unauthorized copies of ballots. She knew but we couldn’t prove she knew. And it was a classic case of why all the hubbub about hand counts are always better than electronic tabulators is flawed argument, especially in underfunded counties and off presidential elections.

3) Most troubling: the number of known political operatives, of both parties, volunteering in nursing homes to collect absentee ballots.

4) You may be too eager to disagree with me.
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(Responses correspond to paragraphs above and below.)

1) They are digitally signed. I don't know if public inspection happens regularly, and/or upon request, but IIRC it does happen.

2) Yeah hand counted ballots and machine counted ballots both have their weaknesses. Both weaknesses can be addressed by putting stop gap measures in, that catch them in most instances.

3) I have problems about anybody being involved in someone who is mentally unable to process thought on a basic level necessary to make a decision on a candidate. There is 2 voters in my precinct, who appear unable to do that, and they come in with their relative, who casts their '2nd vote' in the election. I am fairly certain that their votes don't vary in who they both voted for, ever. One is senile, the other is mentally handicapped. So political operatives of either party going into nursing homes would bother me as well. Even if their motives were good, which they usually aren't, there is too much room for voter influence or direct voter control in unsupervised situations like that. If anybody goes into a nursing home it should be a panel of precinct officials from both parties similar to those found at a local polling location.

4) I was thinking the same thing about you.
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2024 Election prediction/discussion

astonmartin708
lawpoke87 said:
Agee. I am in no way defending J6. It was a disgraceful act which can never again occur. My only contention is with the notion that these idiots almost overthrew the US government.
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Hypothetical hat happens if they seize Pence, or Pelosi, or other heads of state? Have you ever stopped to consider that maybe Trump didn't act in a timely manner because he was waiting for a certain outcome?

There was a distinct possibility that day that Trump could have further supported the rioters (like he soon will by pardoning them).
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2024 Election prediction/discussion

astonmartin708
Chris Harmon said:
In certain circles, I'm known for my third-grade level analysis. In all seriousness though, I think even a third-grader can recognize that the rules should be applied the same to both sides with no nuance needed.

But I'll go ahead and add some nuance. When Trump said ‘we have to fight’, there were bad actors either in the crowd or listening to him. Just as I’m positive there were bad actors in the crowd or listening to Harris say ‘the fight must continue’, and there have already been attempts on Trump’s life. So, again, if Trump was irresponsible for saying it, then so was Harris. To say otherwise is just showing a bias, IMO.
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To not acknowledge key differences in the tones, the surrounding messages (a concession speech vs a non-concession speech), the events leading up to the speeches (multiple weeks of telling people the election was rigged) show immaturity. You only analyze the very surface of an issue.
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This is the Democratic Party.

astonmartin708
lawpoke87 said:
I’ll certainly wait until more information is revealed. That said…I can’t think of many things worse than government employees not giving aid to those in need during an emergency based on who they support for President. Hopefully not many workers followed their supervisor’s directions.
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Is it worse for a low level official try and deny aid, or for a senior elected official to do so by denying (or delaying) funding? It seems like every time a hurricane happens in Virginia, or a fire in California, we get a diatribe from Fox News talking heads about needing to approve the current conservative hinge issue (immigration reform, police funding, etc...) before the Democratic states can get help.

Both seem equally bad to me, and I denounce them both (including this particular individual)
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