ADVERTISEMENT

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Reads like you're more interested in the mechanics of elections than if the candidate you support and their policies are actually good for the United States. Conragts, you're a political operator. We get it. So was Goebbels.
I think he has been involved with politics. Too much arguing in politics. Too much trying to persuade people rather than doing real work:)

My political involvement has been in voting. My only political contribution ever was 10 bucks to John Kasich when he was running for President. That tells you what I think about politics.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

I’m not so sure. I want to see the numbers first. W “won” the Hispanic vote with 40%. But he spoke Spanish, as does his wife and a good portion of his family. And he had a Mexican-American sister-in-law helping him stump and raise money.

If Trump outperforms him, I’ll listen to arguments on a shift.

If she loses, the story will be that she didn’t have time to develop her message.

The reality is that the fundamentals didn’t favor her with inflation, the retreat from Afghanistan and real weakness in opportunities for young men in our society.

Top that off with the fact that she just wasn’t a good candidate. She’s not good at it. Appears incapable of relaxing or delivering concise answers. Refused to discuss any plans. Not really inspiring. Not as bad as Clinton, but up there. They needed a retail politician to overcome inflation. They selected maybe the worst choice for that out of the dozen or so contenders.
I’ve talked for months that Harris was simply an awful candidate. She was awful in the 2020 primary and history repeated itself as it often does. Just a bad move by the Dems. Looking forward to national vote numbers tomorrow to see if the Dem defeat tonight was due to Pubs voting above 2020 numbers or Dems just not showing up to support a bad candidate.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

I’m not so sure. I want to see the numbers first. W “won” the Hispanic vote with 40%. But he spoke Spanish, as does his wife and a good portion of his family. And he had a Mexican-American sister-in-law helping him stump and raise money.

If Trump outperforms him, I’ll listen to arguments on a shift.

If she loses, the story will be that she didn’t have time to develop her message.

The reality is that the fundamentals didn’t favor her with inflation, the retreat from Afghanistan and real weakness in opportunities for young men in our society.

Top that off with the fact that she just wasn’t a good candidate. She’s not good at it. Appears incapable of relaxing or delivering concise answers. Refused to discuss any plans. Not really inspiring. Not as bad as Clinton, but up there. They needed a retail politician to overcome inflation. They selected maybe the worst choice for that out of the dozen or so contenders.
Reads like you're more interested in the mechanics of elections than if the candidate you support and their policies are actually good for the United States. Conragts, you're a political operator. We get it. So was Goebbels.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Not that I think Trump should have been their outlet but I am glad to see minorities are finally realizing the years and years of Dem policies have failed them and voted for a change.

Harris only winning Hispanics by 8 points is a seismic political shift.
I’m not so sure. I want to see the numbers first. W “won” the Hispanic vote with 40%. But he spoke Spanish, as does his wife and a good portion of his family. And he had a Mexican-American sister-in-law helping him stump and raise money.

If Trump outperforms him, I’ll listen to arguments on a shift.

If she loses, the story will be that she didn’t have time to develop her message.

The reality is that the fundamentals didn’t favor her with inflation, the retreat from Afghanistan and real weakness in opportunities for young men in our society.

Top that off with the fact that she just wasn’t a good candidate. She’s not good at it. Appears incapable of relaxing or delivering concise answers. Refused to discuss any plans. Not really inspiring. Not as bad as Clinton, but up there. They needed a retail politician to overcome inflation. They selected maybe the worst choice for that out of the dozen or so contenders.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Just wait.

You forget that Trump is a con artist and a salesman who fundamentally doesn't understand how to run the government successfully. All sales are final. If you don't think he will manage to screw his term up, you're in for a surprise.
Minorities have decades of experience with government policies failing them. Demanding change at the voting booth is a positive imo as is holding elected officials accountable. Hopefully this can be a message sent to our elected officials.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Not that I think Trump should have been their outlet but I am glad to see minorities are finally realizing the years and years of Dem policies have failed them and voted for a change.

Harris only winning Hispanics by 8 points is a seismic political shift.
I was just thinking this lawpoke as I was tossing and turning in bed.

If there is a silver lining, perhaps it is a shift away from identity politics occurring in the electorate. Shame that Trump is the beneficiary but you take the positives where you can find them.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Not that I think Trump should have been their outlet but I am glad to see minorities are finally realizing the years and years of Dem policies have failed them and voted for a change.
Just wait.

You forget that Trump is a con artist and a salesman who fundamentally doesn't understand how to run the government successfully. All sales are final. If you don't think he will manage to screw his term up, you're in for a surprise.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Did you miss Trump sneakers? His befriending nuts like Kanye? His kissing small black children on stage?

All of it was aimed to make him look more friendly to minorities.... not of it actually meant anything, and he has no intent to actually make a positive difference in any of their lives.
Not that I think Trump should have been their outlet but I am glad to see minorities are finally realizing the years and years of Dem policies have failed them and voted for a change.

Harris only winning Hispanics by 8 points is a seismic political shift.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Did you miss Trump sneakers? His befriending nuts like Kanye? His kissing small black children on stage?

All of it was aimed to make him look more friendly to minorities.... not of it actually meant anything, and he has no intent to actually make a positive difference in any of their lives.
Well...I don't think he really cares about anyone else - minorities, Klansman, churchgoers, atheists, the AARP - none of them. He is driven by insecurity, need for power, and fear of being jailed.

He panders to everyone and it is all instrumental. He does not believe in anything IMO. It is both good and bad I guess.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

That might be the single most partisan delusional statement I’ve ever heard from you. Guess you missed all the “free giveaways” Harris promised directly to minorities?
Did you miss Trump sneakers? His befriending nuts like Kanye? His kissing small black children on stage?

All of it was aimed to make him look more friendly to minorities.... not of it actually meant anything, and he has no intent to actually make a positive difference in any of their lives.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Cool. You supported a convict who tried (in absentia) to violently overthrow the US government. I don't care if 95% of the country voted for him, it's still despicable.

You're over here spouting stats like "Mr. Putin won districts that had been +40 for Yeltsin".
I am genuinely worried about the continuation of the America that I have known in my 59 years versus slippage into an Orban style authoritarian regime.

The prior Trump administration and it's ending makes it a genuine concern. That and the broad immunity given to him by the Supreme Court and the fecklessness of our legislative branch to challenge him.

I will need to muster some confidence to avoid scaring my daughters. I tried to warn them this might happen. They are already afraid of him.
  • Like
Reactions: Clong83a and TU83

2024 Election prediction/discussion

We talked about his surprisingly strong showing across several majority Hispanic counties back in 2020. He flipped counties that were +35 Hillary to +20 Trump against Biden. So that’s not a surprise.
Cool. You supported a convict who tried (in absentia) to violently overthrow the US government. I don't care if 95% of the country voted for him, it's still despicable.

You're over here spouting stats like "Mr. Putin won districts that had been +40 for Yeltsin".

2024 Election prediction/discussion

Trump is running far ahead of his 2016 and 2020 numbers in places like New York and New Jersey. Curious to see how he runs on the west coast. He’s running double digits above his past numbers with minorities. Who would have thought ?

Login to view embedded media
We talked about his surprisingly strong showing across several majority Hispanic counties along the border back in 2020. He flipped counties that were +35 Hillary to +5 Trump against Biden. So that’s not a surprise. It’s why, in part, Biden suddenly started talking about building the wall and moving job programs supporting border security to that area of Texas last year. Which we covered here this time last year.

2024 Election prediction/discussion

He certainly put in a lot of work pandering to them. Congratulations?
I think it showd two things.

1. The power of perceptions of the economy regardless of the reality of cause and effect of who sits in the presidency.

2. The susceptibility of the human mind to distortion and manipulation.

As my profession has shown over and over, humans are not rational actors. They often do not have clear insights into cause or effect or even why they do what they do. So none of it is surprising. Just disappointing.
ADVERTISEMENT

Filter

ADVERTISEMENT