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Why a Trump victory in Iowa is important?

Iowa is an interesting state. It is important for many reason. First, it is first. Second it is a crossroads state. Minnesota to the North is very liberal. Nebraska to the West is very conservative. [Omaha and Council Bluffs are almost one city with the Missouri River in between.] It's a farm state which traditionally was important. Missouri to the South is a swing state. Southern Ill. features "Will it play in Peoria."

New Hampshire is traditionally the most Conservative state in the Northeast.

These states should not be trivialized. On the other hand people have lost there and done well latter. The number of delegates is small. And not all are winner take all.

I definitely want my candidate to winner during each presidential election. But is still a long road. Now, Super Tuesday things start really rolling.
 
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I'm interested to see what happens if Bernie wins Iowa and NH. At what point will the DNC and Dem establishment begin to peel off Hillary? One has to think absent an FBI indictment recommendation if she wins Iowa she will be the nominee.
 
Interesting the the "establishment" types have spent so little time and effort going after Trump, and are now quickly surrendering to him in the face of a dreaded Cruz nomination. 20 out of 22 million Bush has spent recently he's spent on attacking Rubio(who is somehow establishment now).
 
lawpoke87 said:
I'm interested to see what happens if Bernie wins Iowa and NH. At what point will the DNC and Dem establishment begin to peel off Hillary? One has to think absent an FBI indictment recommendation if she wins Iowa she will be the nominee.
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Really? No interest in what Trump means to the Republicans and the US? I'm also interested in what Cruz's inability to attract establishment support means.
 
WATU2 said:
Really? No interest in what Trump means to the Republicans and the US? I'm also interested in what Cruz's inability to attract establishment support means.
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I have no interest in Trump or Cruz. Trump is a shock jock and Cruz is as far right on social issues as one can get. Neither one can win a general imo unless Hillary is indicted over the summer.
 
URedskin54 said:
Interesting the the "establishment" types have spent so little time and effort going after Trump, and are now quickly surrendering to him in the face of a dreaded Cruz nomination. 20 out of 22 million Bush has spent recently he's spent on attacking Rubio(who is somehow establishment now).
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Sounds like Bush is betting on a brokered convention and figures that Trump and Cruz are too polarizing to garner a plurality. Thus, Rubio would be his chief rival in such a scenario. Only reason I can think of too attack someone hovering around 10%.
 
Not my first choice, but like Trump just because he drives everyone crazy and he can beat hrc or bs.

Hope he picks Carly for vp.
 
lawpoke87 said:
Sounds like Bush is betting on a brokered convention and figures that Trump and Cruz are too polarizing to garner a plurality. Thus, Rubio would be his chief rival in such a scenario. Only reason I can think of too attack someone hovering around 10%.
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Brokered convention would be very interesting; can't imagine the TP supporting that. Bloomberg is an interesting possibility.
 
Both conventions may be brokered affairs. I still think Biden will be the democrat nominee.
 
If Trump wins the nomination I'd like to see one of the R candidates run an independent bid and set up a Trump v _______ v Sanders v Bloomberg election. Might as well go full cluster****
 
aTUfan said:
Not my first choice, but like Trump just because he drives everyone crazy and he can beat hrc or bs.

Hope he picks Carly for vp.
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I do too, Carly is such a warm,.loving human being, what a charmer.
 
TU 1978 said:
Both conventions may be brokered affairs. I still think Biden will be the democrat nominee.
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What do you people read, listen to, because I get a real sense of an alternative reality that I'm not privy too.
 
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Can the parties even execute a brokered convention under their rules? Voters in states with primaries would likely call the whole process a fraud.
 
I pretty sure Trump would call fraud, if he didn't get the nomination, whether he had any legal justification or not.
 
They can't broker a convention on the first ballot. It's unlikely as all get out but if it goes to a second ballot pledges...I think...go away. Has not happen since the 1920's or so but this year is crazy.
 
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Cruz jiujitsu about Trump getting more establishment funding? Could a Jew, Catholic, or Muslim state what Cruz did and get away with it? Keeping in mind the word "God" does not appear in the Constitution.


Cruz: 'Washington establishment' backs Trump, has abandoned Rubio
By KATIE GLUECK

01/20/16 06:45 PM EST

HOLLIS, N.H. — Texas Sen. Ted Cruz on Wednesday charged that the GOP establishment is “abandoning” Sen. Marco Rubio and coalescing around Donald Trump, though he did not provide any names of who in the Washington establishment is doing so.....

...Pressed on who in that category was actually backing Trump, Cruz would only say, “We are seeing more and more of the establishment calling out their support for Donald Trump,” before going on to note Trump’s past record of donating to Democrats and more moderate Republicans.

....“I’m a Christian first, American second, conservative third and Republican fourth,” said Cruz, who is currently a distant second place, behind Trump, for the GOP nomination in several national polls. “I’ll tell ya, there are a whole lot of people in this country that feel exactly the same way.”
 
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WATU2 said:
Cruz jiujitsu about Trump getting more establishment funding? Could a Jew, Catholic, or Muslim state what Cruz did and get away with it? Keeping in mind the word "God" does not appear in the Constitution.


Cruz: 'Washington establishment' backs Trump, has abandoned Rubio
By KATIE GLUECK

01/20/16 06:45 PM EST

HOLLIS, N.H. — Texas Sen. Ted Cruz on Wednesday charged that the GOP establishment is “abandoning” Sen. Marco Rubio and coalescing around Donald Trump, though he did not provide any names of who in the Washington establishment is doing so.....

...Pressed on who in that category was actually backing Trump, Cruz would only say, “We are seeing more and more of the establishment calling out their support for Donald Trump,” before going on to note Trump’s past record of donating to Democrats and more moderate Republicans.

....“I’m a Christian first, American second, conservative third and Republican fourth,” said Cruz, who is currently a distant second place, behind Trump, for the GOP nomination in several national polls. “I’ll tell ya, there are a whole lot of people in this country that feel exactly the same way.”
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Jew-Yes. Catholic-Yes. Muslim-probably not, partly from prejudice, partly from people rightly being weary of political Islam.
 
URedskin54 said:
Jew-Yes. Catholic-Yes. Muslim-probably not, partly from prejudice, partly from people rightly being weary of political Islam.
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But does it fit with our Constitutional principles which so many claim Trumps everything?

OK OK Today's bad joke.
 
As I understand it, Iowa is the unique "primary" in that they do things the old fashioned way with a caucus. A caucus allows people to meet in their neighborhoods and encourages people to give their views on the candidates publicly. That is powerful since it encourages the best informed individuals to express their politics to those not so well informed. That hurts Trump, since many of his backers will be at a disadvantage not able to just personally criticize the opposition.

The caucus (as I understand it) is more a public vote where people meet and vote openly, not in the anonymity of a voting booth. That means they may be swayed at the last moment if they aren't totally committed to a candidate. Its a very interesting process.

The Trumpless debate last night was a breath of fresh air and IMO, my candidate Marco won it hands down. The quote of the night was his reference to Bernie Sanders and that he'd make a great president ---- of Sweden. :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
 
Trump is the winner, it is over GOP. Over. Trump wins the first three, topping them off with an overwhelming win in South Carolina. A brokered convention destroys the GOP, breaks it completely apart, so that will not happen. Plus, the eventual winner would have no chance, if Trump has his nomination stole by the GOP establishment, there will be true hell to pay.
 
It is true that the GOP is in a double bind. However, there are many states that Trump will not take. Many have more delegates than Iowa and New Hampshire.
 
I want anyone that can defeat hrc;
Trump, bloomberg, carly, and maybe christe
Maybe bs will beat her in the nonination.
 
So it will all be over if Trump wins? So in 2008 Huckabee was the Republican nominee and in 2012 it was Santorum. I understand why the first states are important it's not bad to be the first horse out of the gate, especially in a short race. But this is the Belmont Stakes, the longest leg of the Triple Crown. Cruz will do in New York. Will Trump do well in California there are a few Hispanic voters there. Will he beat Cruz in Texas...that one could happen. Will he beat Rubio in Florida? Each of these states have way more delegates than IA and NH.

Next question is will America tolerate a "brokered Convention?" No and Yes. No, if the Convention comes in loaded against Trump by the establishment. But if he doesn't have enough to win on the first ballot, then the purpose of the second ballot is not to repeat the first one. Many of the States split the delegates proportionally. And by districts as well as at large.

Having so many candidates has helped Trump. 40% looks large when the next one is 20%. But add all of the others together and it is not large. Not many have dropped out so far and it is not beyond belief that 4 or at least three could hang in to the convention.

Eastcane calls Rubio a punk yet most national polls show Rubio beats Clinton. And as an extra benefit, he is not being investigated by the FBI. Maybe some of the young voters listen to Punk Rock?
 
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Hooray for Hollywood. Now the race is really on. Huckabee is the first dead fly. The candidates are about to drop like flies between now and South Carolina, thank God.
 
Honest socialist and criminal socialist are tied on the dem side
 
Best sound bite of the night. MSNBC was covering the Sanders watch party live when Hillary starts here speech. They break out the "she's a liar" chant in unison. After fifteen seconds or so the network cuts away.
 
If Christie, Bush, and Kasich drop out, most of those votes go to Rubio. Not a huge number but probably enough to put in no worse than second. Rubio is now where Obama was.
 
The Carson votes goes mostly to Cruz. The rest mostly to Rubio. Would have put Cruz and Rubio in a neck and neck race I'm thinking something like 37% Rubio. 36%, Cruz. & Trump 27%.(or vice versa on Cruz & Rubio.)
 
TUMe said:
If Christie, Bush, and Kasich drop out, most of those votes go to Rubio. Not a huge number but probably enough to put in no worse than second. Rubio is now where Obama was.
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I doubt Bush drops out at this point because his war chest is so immense. But if he were a real conservative republican and not a political opportunist (as I think he probably is), he should drop out and support his one time friend and understudy, Marco. Some of these candidates that can't get double figure support, need to start looking to support whom can really win the general election and stop the partisan bickering.

The democrats have a huge problem and they are coming to that realization. Hillary may be inidicted as a criminal (emails) and Bernie is the "honest" socialist who promises to raise every ones taxes. i can't think of too many independents out there that would vote for either of them if the republicans run Rubio. All the dems have left is the victim card and the idea they can buy voters with more giveaways and more debt.

IMO
 
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