Trump's safe...

watu05

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Hard to know what to make of the FBI raid on Trump's Mara Logo house house The FBI and DOJ had to know that the Trump Republican's reactions would be exactly what they have been (threats and anger), so the FBI must have believed that 1) they had a firm knowledge of that something was there and 2) that it was significant. Otherwise the FBI just looks foolish , political and Trump comes out stronger and more aggrieved. DOJ/FBI won't be talking for a while, and they may have misjudged and found zippo. Have to wait and see.

BUT what could have been so important that the FBI would take the risk? Presumably it had to do with material taken from the White House that should have gone into the archives instead of his house. Trump's toddy Kash Patel was in charge of the archives when Trump left, so maybe it took a while to determine what was missing? But what could it have been?
1) Minutes of meetings with Jan 6 organizers? Unlikely why keep the material instead of destroying it?
2)Translations of private, official meetings with Putin. Unlikely and why keep?
3) Highly classified material. Maybe, he had access, but what good would they do him now?
4) Dirt on people he was blackmailing? Ok, the mobster approach, but what would the FBI and National Archives have to do with it?

Those ideas don't work. Anyone else?

I do suspect, however, that for the FBI to take this step, they must have had an informant who claimed the material was there. Whatever it was or was supposed to be.

Interesting to find out how all this transpired.
 

noble cane

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They will find something... even if they have to plant it..

Interesting that the raid happend almost to the day of Nixons resignation speach.... that kind of symbolism doesnt happen by accident.
 
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aTUfan

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msybr hrc's emails are there. or her stock in uranium one, or her signed check for the dossier, or hunters lap top. or pelosis non union factoty, or aoc's brain,
 

watu05

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Well, the FBI already took 15 boxes of material that should have been turned over to the archives In 2022. They took 10 more boxes away today. They went through the same procedure to get a court order they would have for anybody else and were quietly courteous about their search. So maybe it’s not a big deal.

Whatever it is Trump and Republicans will raise a sh#t load of money out of it.
 

noble cane

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Well, the FBI already took 15 boxes of material that should have been turned over to the archives In 2022. They took 10 more boxes away today. They went through the same procedure to get a court order they would have for anybody else and were quietly courteous about their search. So maybe it’s not a big deal.

Whatever it is Trump and Republicans will raise a sh#t load of money out of it.
Obama took 30 million pages with him when he left... its in a suburban warehouse in Chicago..

Then again, maybe he didnt think Sandy Berger could pull a second heist..
 

watu05

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Obama also complied with the Presidential Records act for his presidential library like other presidents. Trump already was caught sneaking classified materials out secretly to hide in his house. In 2022 he returned some but not all of the records . So the Feds went to court with their evidence, got a search warrant’ and collected the remainder.

Have to laugh at the Republican Senator from Tenn who claimed it was horrible because ‘The same thing could happen to anyone’. I sure hope so.

But Trump and his ilk will make a lot of dough out this from his offended backers.
 

watu05

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BTW Trump took the Fifth in his depositions in NY State today about his real estate practices.

“You see the mob takes the Fifth, if you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?” Donald Trump 2017.
 
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lawpoke87

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If the NY AG campaigned on putting me in jail I would take the Fifth as well…just saying.
 
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noble cane

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But Trump and his ilk will make a lot of dough out this from his offended backers.
And Pelosi, Schumer, AOC and their horde will make a lot of hay from their incensed zombies.. thats the point of the media and modern deep state politics? Isnt it?
 

Gmoney4WW

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Hopefully the center will make their own decisions, uninfluenced by hay or dough.

The center of both parties and independents will determine the next election.
 

noble cane

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Hopefully the center will make their own decisions, uninfluenced by hay or dough.

The center of both parties and independents will determine the next election.
Would be nice, but the center can't win without the base. HRC couldnt, McCain couldnt, Romney couldnt, Bush 1 couldnt.. the base gets the vote out, works the campaign and builds enthusiasm for a candidate..
 

aTUfan

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BTW Trump took the Fifth in his depositions in NY State today about his real estate practices.

“You see the mob takes the Fifth, if you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?” Donald Trump 2017.
hrc school of testifyiing
 

aTUfan

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And Pelosi, Schumer, AOC and their horde will make a lot of hay from their incensed zombies.. thats the point of the media and modern deep state politics? Isnt it?
nancy pelosi sponsered and the voted for a a bill for minimum wage and union benefits; but her husbands conpanies were exempt.
 

Gmoney4WW

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Would be nice, but the center can't win without the base. HRC couldnt, McCain couldnt, Romney couldnt, Bush 1 couldnt.. the base gets the vote out, works the campaign and builds enthusiasm for a candidate..
There is no chance that the Republican base and Democratic Base won't support their respective candidates in this next election. It's a matter of fact, that which ever way the center decides to vote in 2024 will decide the candidate. Trump has made it that way for the last and next election. The only way the center would not decide the next election, is if an independent candidate gained significant support to sway the election. Future elections are a different story. I'm assuming you already knew that though.
 

Clong83a

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Hard to know what to make of the FBI raid on Trump's Mara Logo house house The FBI and DOJ had to know that the Trump Republican's reactions would be exactly what they have been (threats and anger), so the FBI must have believed that 1) they had a firm knowledge of that something was there and 2) that it was significant. Otherwise the FBI just looks foolish , political and Trump comes out stronger and more aggrieved. DOJ/FBI won't be talking for a while, and they may have misjudged and found zippo. Have to wait and see.

BUT what could have been so important that the FBI would take the risk? Presumably it had to do with material taken from the White House that should have gone into the archives instead of his house. Trump's toddy Kash Patel was in charge of the archives when Trump left, so maybe it took a while to determine what was missing? But what could it have been?
1) Minutes of meetings with Jan 6 organizers? Unlikely why keep the material instead of destroying it?
2)Translations of private, official meetings with Putin. Unlikely and why keep?
3) Highly classified material. Maybe, he had access, but what good would they do him now?
4) Dirt on people he was blackmailing? Ok, the mobster approach, but what would the FBI and National Archives have to do with it?

Those ideas don't work. Anyone else?

I do suspect, however, that for the FBI to take this step, they must have had an informant who claimed the material was there. Whatever it was or was supposed to be.

Interesting to find out how all this transpired.
On point number three, there is plenty of utility in keeping it. If it is highly sensitive NSI for example, you could sell to the highest bidder. Plenty of people would like to get their hands on such info.

I‘m definitely not saying that is what is going on, but your comment that it didn’t seem to have any obvious advantage struck me as odd.

As for the general story, I’ll comment. I am a derivative classifier, meaning I am one of the people that reviews documents and decides whether they are classified or not, and at what level. It’s not my full time job (and I don’t even get paid extra for it) but I know a lot about this area.

Patel is right that the POTUS has special powers to declassify information, but it is a little misleading. Even if information is declassified, any document containing that info does not immediately become unclassified. Reason is so that you don’t have a bunch of people treating documents marked “Secret” as though they get to judge whether it actually is or isn’t. Legally, if a document is marked “Secret” or “Top Secret”, then that is what the document is, even if it is a misclassified Betty Crocker cookbook. Nobody would dispute that a cookbook isn’t classified, but you still can’t take a document that is marked as such and make it public without changing the markings and restamping it. He has the power to do it himself, but he still has to change the markings or legally, it was never declassified, even if it is still just a Betty Crocker cookbook. And it needs to be protected as such until the markings are changed by someone authorized to do so.

The rumors I’ve heard are that he allegedly had classified marked documents at his residence. Patel and Trump say he declared them unclassified, but legally speaking for a physical document, that is not quite enough. He could be exposed since this is the second attempt to recover documents from him which may go to an intent to deceive and hide them, but it’s just speculation. He also has a strong argument in his favor in that he was POTUS, and he has an unquestioned power to declassify anything, even if he is clueless about how that procedure actually works.

Long story short, he may be deeply exposed depending on what is in those documents, or it might be a big nothingburger. I‘m not sure even the FBI knows at this point, but I expect we will find out soon enough.
 

drboobay

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There is no chance that the Republican base and Democratic Base won't support their respective candidates in this next election. It's a matter of fact, that which ever way the center decides to vote in 2024 will decide the candidate. Trump has made it that way for the last and next election. The only way the center would not decide the next election, is if an independent candidate gained significant support to sway the election. Future elections are a different story. I'm assuming you already knew that though.
So you don't think that turnout will matter among the base? And it will be independents and near independents that will decide?
 

drboobay

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On point number three, there is plenty of utility in keeping it. If it is highly sensitive NSI for example, you could sell to the highest bidder. Plenty of people would like to get their hands on such info.

I‘m definitely not saying that is what is going on, but your comment that it didn’t seem to have any obvious advantage struck me as odd.

As for the general story, I’ll comment. I am a derivative classifier, meaning I am one of the people that reviews documents and decides whether they are classified or not, and at what level. It’s not my full time job (and I don’t even get paid extra for it) but I know a lot about this area.

Patel is right that the POTUS has special powers to declassify information, but it is a little misleading. Even if information is declassified, any document containing that info does not immediately become unclassified. Reason is so that you don’t have a bunch of people treating documents marked “Secret” as though they get to judge whether it actually is or isn’t. Legally, if a document is marked “Secret” or “Top Secret”, then that is what the document is, even if it is a misclassified Betty Crocker cookbook. Nobody would dispute that a cookbook isn’t classified, but you still can’t take a document that is marked as such and make it public without changing the markings and restamping it. He has the power to do it himself, but he still has to change the markings or legally, it was never declassified, even if it is still just a Betty Crocker cookbook. And it needs to be protected as such until the markings are changed by someone authorized to do so.

The rumors I’ve heard are that he allegedly had classified marked documents at his residence. Patel and Trump say he declared them unclassified, but legally speaking for a physical document, that is not quite enough. He could be exposed since this is the second attempt to recover documents from him which may go to an intent to deceive and hide them, but it’s just speculation. He also has a strong argument in his favor in that he was POTUS, and he has an unquestioned power to declassify anything, even if he is clueless about how that procedure actually works.

Long story short, he may be deeply exposed depending on what is in those documents, or it might be a big nothingburger. I‘m not sure even the FBI knows at this point, but I expect we will find out soon enough.
He's not President now and cannot declassify anything.
 

Clong83a

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He's not President now and cannot declassify anything.
Right, but he claims he declassified it while in office.

Edit: I do have my doubts about all this. It really depends on what is in those documents. If it’s nuclear weapons designs, that is a whole other ballgame to some mundane and possibly expired intel, for example. It also completely tosses his defense out of the water. Time will tell.
 
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drboobay

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Right, but he claims he declassified it while in office.

Edit: I do have my doubts about all this. It really depends on what is in those documents. If it’s nuclear weapons designs, that is a whole other ballgame to some mundane and possibly expired intel, for example. It also completely tosses his defense out of the water. Time will tell.
Yes it is very risky. Damned well better find something significant or this will be a huge turnout motivator for the Trumpies.
 
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Clong83a

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Yes it is very risky. Damned well better find something significant or this will be a huge turnout motivator for the Trumpies.
Personally, I wouldn’t be able to get away with any of this. And even if it is something mundane, I think he is a security risk and demonstrates a clear disregard for standard procedures on these matters. Worse even than HRC, who I also had some reservations about.

But politically, I absolutely agree with you. You probably shouldn’t go after him unless you know he has done something really unambiguously horribly malicious, and have the receipts to prove it. If it is something relatively mundane, it will come off as a witch hunt or fishing expedition and will backfire.
 

drboobay

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Personally, I wouldn’t be able to get away with any of this. And even if it is something mundane, I think he is a security risk and demonstrates a clear disregard for standard procedures on these matters. Worse even than HRC, who I also had some reservations about.

But politically, I absolutely agree with you. You probably shouldn’t go after him unless you know he has done something really unambiguously horribly malicious, and have the receipts to prove it. If it is something relatively mundane, it will come off as a witch hunt or fishing expedition and will backfire.
Garland comes across as pretty measured and meticulous. But who knows.
 

Gmoney4WW

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So you don't think that turnout will matter among the base? And it will be independents and near independents that will decide?
Yep, I think Trump acolytes will be out in spades.(presently the base of the party) Never trumpers,(the majority of the Democratic base) will show up in spades again. It won it for Biden the first time. After Biden's weak performance, we'll see what happens the second time. Hopefully the cautionary will inspire anybody but trump's delusional supporters. I just hope the Republican party gets a nominee besides trump or desantis. Desantis is an emboldened trump with a brain. Possibly much more dangerous.
 

watu05

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LOL, the justification for excessive incarceration of blacks is that they are the ones breaking the law, but when it comes to conservatives, it's because the system is rigged? Trump repeatedly publicly called for the arrest of political opponents while he was president and no Republicans said that was even unseemly. But now.....
 

watu05

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Yes it is very risky. Damned well better find something significant or this will be a huge turnout motivator for the Trumpies.
If Trump declassified the documents, there should have been a record of it and the material made available to those with a need to know and an appropriate security clearance. If he wanted to keep the material private by classifying it at a super high level there should be a record and a successor could declassify it. Or he could just pretend it never existed and hide it. Anyone abetting Trump in hiding or mishandling classified material or presidential records would be in hot water, so someone may have ratted Trump out.

Either way, if there were classified or presidential materials in Trump's possession and he didn't turn all of it over when given the opportunity last year, the Feds should go get what he held back. It appears that they followed the normal procedures to do so. The reporting is that there had been a lot of back and forth between the Feds and Trump about this issue leading up to the FBI showing up.
 
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drboobay

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We have to be careful when assuming any departure from equal outcomes in life by demographic group is equivalent to bias.

It's not.
 

watu05

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Common ground? From one of my most conservative friends in Texas who is worried about the path we are headed down. The reaction to the Trump raid seems to have triggered this. The author works for The Dispatch conservative website.

 

Clong83a

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No, not all. it just seems that dems are getting a hall pass.
Haven’t yet heard of the (formerly) high ranking Dem that allegedly has nuclear secrets at their home for no apparent reason.

That‘s the rumor on Trump. If true (and yes, it is still an if at this point), that is leagues away from anything anyone has ever done before outside of out and out espionage.

I might comment further about his ’unclassification’ powers if it comes to that and he tries to lean on it. It will depend what really was in those documents. He does have say so, but it’s not a get out of jail free card. If the stuff is obviously highly sensitive, and he never bothered to have classification guidance manuals changed to reflect his new decree on how to classify something, then the information is still classified. And if he merely ‘unclassified’ a classified document because he can, even if the information is actually still classified, then he needs to change the markings on the documents or it didn‘t happen. And intentionally misclassifying a document (deeming it unclassified when it in fact is clearly not) is also a crime, so that’s not a perfect defense either.

It would seem he didn’t do either. That said, as I said before, it is kind of an untested legal gray area when POTUS is involved. If it is something rather mundane, he probably comes out okay, even if it is still something that would get me fired and maybe thrown in prison. If not, he has real exposure here.

I will also point out that unlike what his toady said to the press, there are very few things involving nuclear secrets that are ‘no big deal’. True, you could maybe find some things out on your own with a computer, but you wouldn’t be able to verify it and there is also a lot of erroneous information out there too. So it matters. And there is a LOT more than that that you’d never find on the internet.
 

noble cane

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Haven’t yet heard of the (formerly) high ranking Dem that allegedly has nuclear secrets at their home for no apparent reason.

That‘s the rumor on Trump. If true (and yes, it is still an if at this point), that is leagues away from anything anyone has ever done before outside of out and out espionage.

I might comment further about his ’unclassification’ powers if it comes to that and he tries to lean on it. It will depend what really was in those documents. He does have say so, but it’s not a get out of jail free card. If the stuff is obviously highly sensitive, and he never bothered to have classification guidance manuals changed to reflect his new decree on how to classify something, then the information is still classified. And if he merely ‘unclassified’ a classified document because he can, even if the information is actually still classified, then he needs to change the markings on the documents or it didn‘t happen. And intentionally misclassifying a document (deeming it unclassified when it in fact is clearly not) is also a crime, so that’s not a perfect defense either.

It would seem he didn’t do either. That said, as I said before, it is kind of an untested legal gray area when POTUS is involved. If it is something rather mundane, he probably comes out okay, even if it is still something that would get me fired and maybe thrown in prison. If not, he has real exposure here.

I will also point out that unlike what his toady said to the press, there are very few things involving nuclear secrets that are ‘no big deal’. True, you could maybe find some things out on your own with a computer, but you wouldn’t be able to verify it and there is also a lot of erroneous information out there too. So it matters. And there is a LOT more than that that you’d never find on the internet.
Its a good thing that Moose and Squirrel were on the job and kept Boris and Natasha from selling nuclear secrets for golf tournaments..
 

Clong83a

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Its a good thing that Moose and Squirrel were on the job and kept Boris and Natasha from selling nuclear secrets for golf tournaments..
You’ve lost me on this one…. Selling secrets for golf tournaments?

You will note I didn’t actually accuse him of anything, and always tried to frame it in the hypothetical. I don’t know why he’d have nuclear info at his house in Mar Al Lago, but if it is true, there is no legitimate reason for it, whatever his aims were.

I am a Q cleared derivative classifier that knows a great deal about how the classifications system works for nuclear info, and I am trying to comment mostly from that vantage point. And he could be in serious trouble if some of the things I’ve heard are true. That much is still an unknown. If it’s not true, and we are quibbling about some forgotten document with some expired intel on it, then I think the FBI is going to get egg on its face, even though the same crime from me would land me in jail. As I have said, time will tell. But I don’t think you go after someone as high profile as Trump without some pretty iron clad evidence of malfeasance. I’d hope even his staunch supporters would keep an open mind if he eventually gets accused of a serious crime.
 

noble cane

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You’ve lost me on this one…. Selling secrets for golf tournaments?

.....supporters would keep an open mind if he eventually gets accused of a serious crime.
Thats the rumor that the libstream is circluating.. he sold nuke stuff to the Saudis to get LIV Tyler to hold golf tournaments at Trump courses..

I dont consider myself a Trumpist.. but i know a political hit job when I see one..

Its too bad Biden doesnt have someone with Che Gueveras balls to do his dirty work.. instead he has that mouse Garland. Che would deal with the opposition.
 

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