Some positive news on the treatment front

[lawpoke87]

I absolutely believe Stitt has done a superb job. His ability to acquire over 1000 vents as well as other supplies and develop a distribution network was among the best in the country imo. Bynum lost me when he said he was still relying on the moron who predicted 1000-3000 Tulsa county deaths by Aug 1. Stupid statement.

This is a complicated situation. Our young people are likely sacrificing their standard of living at best and ability to feed their family and put a roof over their head at worst in a scenario which poses much less to them than driving to and from work. In the end we owe them thanks.

I’ve been disappointed with the lack of reporting on what lies ahead as far as jobs, housing, food, etc... and how keeping things shut down for “x” long effects those numbers. This situation is will eventually change from a health issue to an humanitarian and social service issue. One which we are woefully ill-prepared for. Millions upon millions of people are going to be in for a shock...when they shouldn’t be. It will be ugly. The only question is “how” ugly.

 

[TU_BLA]

There’s probably people on here much more knowledgeable than me on this but i haven’t heard any epidemiologists discuss a way to eliminate it without a vaccine. Short of that, I don’t think eliminating it is a realistic goal. If it is, I’m happy to be educated on it

Here a good article fromForbes. It specifically refers to R0 (R-Naught) as the best indicator to where we are and where we’re headed.

Lawpoke, if someone comes to work and their temp is checked and it’s high and they’ve been sent home, it’s too late. It is very likely they’ve had it for a week and potentially spread it around the office.

I’ve got a close friend who is on the back end of recovering from COVID-19. She got it from her cousin he was staying with her family. He had been in NYC right before the lockdown began. Her symptoms showed up and the main portion of the illness took about 7-10 days to wind down for her. She said it felt like a cat sitting in her ches along with your typical flu-like symptoms.She is now a week past that and she says she is just now starting to feel a bit better and regaining strength although she has a bit of a lingering cough. It’s nothing to mess with.

 

[TU_BLA]

URedskin54 said:

↑



There’s probably people on here much more knowledgeable than me on this but i haven’t heard any epidemiologists discuss a way to eliminate it without a vaccine. Short of that, I don’t think eliminating it is a realistic goal. If it is, I’m happy to be educated on it

That’s fair. The issue is really rate of transmission. It needs to be less than .8. Do we have any idea publicly available information about what it is in Oklahoma? I can’t find it and I’m pretty good at that.

We have to get this low enough that schools, day care, and camps can function. That to me is the only way to make the system functional. There’s a number of “R” that makes that an acceptable risk. The government gets to decide that. But what is the R here?

My hunch is that it’s going to turn out that certain lobbyists pushed for the re-opening based on junk data and long rejected economic philosophy (Lochner).
[/quote]
I just posted a link to an article from Forbes by an MD who covers the R figure. Less than 1 is a pretty good place to be where you can resume but be wary. Anything over 1.0 and it can spike again.

 

[lawpoke87]

Here a good article fromForbes. It specifically refers to R0 (R-Naught) as the best indicator to where we are and where we’re headed.

Lawpoke, if someone comes to work and their temp is checked and it’s high and they’ve been sent home, it’s too late. It is very likely they’ve had it for a week and potentially spread it around the office.

I’ve got a close friend who is on the back end of recovering from COVID-19. She got it from her cousin he was staying with her family. He had been in NYC right before the lockdown began. Her symptoms showed up and the main portion of the illness took about 7-10 days to wind down for her. She said it felt like a cat sitting in her ches along with your typical flu-like symptoms.She is now a week past that and she says she is just now starting to feel a bit better and regaining strength although she has a bit of a lingering cough. It’s nothing to mess with.

I understand the dynamics. However, as an employer we need to take all precautions we can to protect our employees. This virus isn’t going away. I fully expect it to be around through next spring with peaks and valleys. You do the best you can. Thankfully, the fatality rate for a healthy non-senior is very low. This could have been so much worse

Unfortunately, R is not a constant and will depend on a variety of factors many of which aren’t constant. I do agree of the importance of keeping that number below 1.

 

[TUMU]

Interesting story on 60 minutes tonight about this company in Toronto. Using human and artificial intelligence.

https://bluedot.global/

 

[Gold*]

Interesting story on 60 minutes tonight about this company in Toronto. Using human and artificial intelligence.

https://bluedot.global/

Watching it now. Fascinating.

 

[Gmoney4WW]

Interesting story on 60 minutes tonight about this company in Toronto. Using human and artificial intelligence.

https://bluedot.global/

'While diseases spread fast, knowledge can spread even faster.'

'Cept when China hides it.

Will watch later, time for bed.

 

[lawpoke87]

Based on today’s numbers:

Total new cases

4-20 to 4-27 600
4-13 to 4-20 611

Total new hospitalizations

4-20 to 4-27 95
4-13 to 4-20 104

The drop in new cases tie into a drop in hospitalizations. Which provides further support for the validity of that number. Considering the ramp up in testing these are very good numbers imo and further indicate an R of below 1.

Weekend reporting is still crap but it’s consistent crap which is why the comparison works.

 

[Gold*]

Based on today’s numbers:

Total new cases

4-20 to 4-27 600
4-13 to 4-20 611

Total new hospitalizations

4-20 to 4-27 95
4-13 to 4-20 104

The drop in new cases tie into a drop in hospitalizations. Which provides further support for the validity of that number. Considering the ramp up in testing these are very good numbers imo and further indicate an R of below 1.

Weekend reporting is still crap but it’s consistent crap which is why the comparison works.

I thought, based on years of complaints about officiating on this message board, that it was now accepted law that when you add crap to more crap, all you get is a bunch of crap.

I did a deep dive yesterday. I don’t think we have any clue what “R” is here and aren’t looking at that.

I don’t see much of a meaningful drop. What was the drop the week before?

 

[lawpoke87]

I thought, based on years of complaints about officiating on this message board, that it was now accepted law that when you add crap to more crap, all you get is a bunch of crap.

I did a deep dive yesterday. I don’t think we have any clue what “R” is here and aren’t looking at that.

I don’t see much of a meaningful drop. What was the drop the week before?

4-6 to 4-13 742 new cases. That’s a drop of 142 weekly cases over the last three weeks with large increases in the number of tests being given.

Question...how can R be over one when we see an decrease of new cases of 20% from two weeks ago with large increases in testing ?

Hospitalizations have dropped from 117 per week to the current 95. Which supports the drop we’re seeing from the new case test results.

 

[Gold*]

That’s a drop, but are you saying this makes you feel safe to go out in water? 22 fewer hospitalizations in a state with 4 million seems small. One idiot who thinks it’s allergies could take out an office of that size while waiting on test results, assuming they got the test.

I just don’t think there’s enough data because not enough people are getting tested, particularly those with potential asymptomatic cases and those who may have had it but couldn’t a test until the past couple of weeks.

 

[Clong83a]

Based on today’s numbers:

Total new cases

4-20 to 4-27 600
4-13 to 4-20 611

Total new hospitalizations

4-20 to 4-27 95
4-13 to 4-20 104

The drop in new cases tie into a drop in hospitalizations. Which provides further support for the validity of that number. Considering the ramp up in testing these are very good numbers imo and further indicate an R of below 1.

Weekend reporting is still crap but it’s consistent crap which is why the comparison works.

I don't know what the "R" is, but just looking at case numbers isn't quite enough since the testing rate fluctuates, as you say. That is, 4-13-420 may be artificially high is testing was being ramped up in that time, catching a few backlogged illnesses that should have been reported earlier.

That said, hospitalizations are an okay thing to go by, I think. While 104 to 95 is a decrease and a good sign and points to the R value likely being (currently) below 1, I would call it essentially flat. That means the number of people walking around and catching it today is similar to what it was two weeks ago. Releasing restrictions means that number will go up, and the question is by how much. I'd say it is probably wise to wait until the numbers go down more significantly so you have some buffer room to prevent things from getting out of control if the reopening schedule backfires and causes it to spread again, but that it just my $0.02.

Don't get me wrong, I think it is possible to reopen some businesses in limited fashions. I bought a new pair of running shoes last week. The owner of a local running store is a friend of mine. I called in my order to him, despite them being "closed". I drove down there, called him again to let them know I was there. He came outside, put the shoes on the patio of the store, and went back inside. I went and picked them up, no contact, and I never went in the store. That kind of stuff can probably start happening on a somewhat broader scale. The fact that the public is now very well educated on social distancing helps, as we can keep transmission lower than it would be in a "control" group of no social distancing, even with some more things open. But it is a gamble, and nobody knows where the line is that makes the "R" value go up over 1 again. And there is the human factor to consider. As things reopen, people may get more cavalier with the social distancing and what worked in weeks 1 and 2 of reopening may stop working if people stop wearing masks or stop standing 6 feet apart.

And some industries, like casinos, will be closed for a long time (sorry, mayor crazy lady). How are you going to disinfect poker chips after every exchange? Disinfect slot machine buttons every time someone switched machines? Impractical at best. Office buildings are in a similar situation.

EDIT:

Hopefully this permanently kills the stupid "Open Office" floorplan fad. I hate that.

 

[URedskin54]

Looks like I was a ways off on the NYC infection rate. As of today it's ~25%. That would put the current death rate at about .8% using their confirmed + probable death numbers and .55% using only confirmed covid deaths. So between 5 and 8 times as deadly as the flu? (assuming that few of the indeterminate tests are actually positive)

 

[lawpoke87]

I don't know what the "R" is, but just looking at case numbers isn't quite enough since the testing rate fluctuates, as you say. That is, 4-13-420 may be artificially high is testing was being ramped up in that time, catching a few backlogged illnesses that should have been reported earlier.

That said, hospitalizations are an okay thing to go by, I think. While 104 to 95 is a decrease and a good sign and points to the R value likely being (currently) below 1, I would call it essentially flat. That means the number of people walking around and catching it today is similar to what it was two weeks ago. Releasing restrictions means that number will go up, and the question is by how much. I'd say it is probably wise to wait until the numbers go down more significantly so you have some buffer room to prevent things from getting out of control if the reopening schedule backfires and causes it to spread again, but that it just my $0.02.

Don't get me wrong, I think it is possible to reopen some businesses in limited fashions. I bought a new pair of running shoes last week. The owner of a local running store is a friend of mine. I called in my order to him, despite them being "closed". I drove down there, called him again to let them know I was there. He came outside, put the shoes on the patio of the store, and went back inside. I went and picked them up, no contact, and I never went in the store. That kind of stuff can probably start happening on a somewhat broader scale. The fact that the public is now very well educated on social distancing helps, as we can keep transmission lower than it would be in a "control" group of no social distancing, even with some more things open. But it is a gamble, and nobody knows where the line is that makes the "R" value go up over 1 again. And there is the human factor to consider. As things reopen, people may get more cavalier with the social distancing and what worked in weeks 1 and 2 of reopening may stop working if people stop wearing masks or stop standing 6 feet apart.

And some industries, like casinos, will be closed for a long time (sorry, mayor crazy lady). How are you going to disinfect poker chips after every exchange? Disinfect slot machine buttons every time someone switched machines? Impractical at best. Office buildings are in a similar situation.

EDIT:

Hopefully this permanently kills the stupid "Open Office" floorplan fad. I hate that.

Going back to practically the beginning of the outbreak, weekly hospitalizations are as follows:

152
163
117
104
95

I have a hard time picturing an R over 1 with those numbers.

 

[Clong83a]

Looks like I was a ways off on the NYC infection rate. As of today it's ~25%. That would put the current death rate at about .8% using their confirmed + probable death numbers and .55% using only confirmed covid deaths. So between 5 and 8 times as deadly as the flu? (assuming that few of the indeterminate tests are actually positive)

Depends on the flu year too, but thereabouts. I think the error bars on the infection rate make the range a bit bigger than that. I'd say anywhere from 5-15x deadlier. There is some question as to the antibody test putting out a lot of false positives, which would make the IFR go up. If they aren't having that problem in NYC, then somewhere around 8x is probably accurate.

 

[Clong83a]

Going back to practically the beginning of the outbreak, weekly hospitalizations are as follows:

152
163
117
104
95

I have a hard time picturing an R over 1 with those numbers.

Like I said, it is likely less than 1 (currently).

I was going on only the two weeks of data you reported as I don't otherwise keep up on Oklahoma's numbers. But that looks like a pretty good trend. I think I'd still wait another week or two to begin some sort of phased reopening, but as I said, it's a calculated risk that the governor and mayors are going to have to make.

 

[lawpoke87]

That’s a drop, but are you saying this makes you feel safe to go out in water? 22 fewer hospitalizations in a state with 4 million seems small. One idiot who thinks it’s allergies could take out an office of that size while waiting on test results, assuming they got the test.

I just don’t think there’s enough data because not enough people are getting tested, particularly those with potential asymptomatic cases and those who may have had it but couldn’t a test until the past couple of weeks.

I wouldn’t go swimming but I might put my toe in the water while wearing a life vest. I believe the current Plan is too fast. I would like to see Phase 1 only include the salons, barber shops, etc and extend to May 15th. If numbers continue to decline then start the restaurants w 6’ between tables, etc... My fear is too much too fast but I also want to know what we can and cannot do. Thus, I would propose a more cautious approach which does include some loosening of restrictions.

Our office will remain closed to non-employees until at least June 1 fwiw.

 

[astonmartin708]

Why the hell do people care about salons and barber shops so much. The one thing we should care about the least lol. A bunch old ladies complaining about not getting their greys taken care of.

 

[Clong83a]

Why the hell do people care about salons and barber shops so much. The one thing we should care about the least lol. A bunch old ladies complaining about not getting their greys taken care of.

Up close and personal, and something that is not exactly 'necessary'. Yeah, I'd say it should be later on the list. Retail ought to come first, and I think some provision allowing elective procedures for hospitals that have no current COVID cases would be great too. Rural hospitals make most of their money on that, and a lot of them are just sitting empty.

 

[maverickfp]

Why the hell do people care about salons and barber shops so much. The one thing we should care about the least lol. A bunch old ladies complaining about not getting their greys taken care of.

Huh something i agree with aston about.

 

[URedskin54]

Well there are the people who own/work at the salons and barber shops who are now behind on their rent and mortgage payments.

 

[Gold*]

I wouldn’t go swimming but I might put my toe in the water while wearing a life vest. I believe the current Plan is too fast. I would like to see Phase 1 only include the salons, barber shops, etc and extend to May 15th. If numbers continue to decline then start the restaurants w 6’ between tables, etc... My fear is too much too fast but I also want to know what we can and cannot do. Thus, I would propose a more cautious approach which does include some loosening of restrictions.

Our office will remain closed to non-employees until at least June 1 fwiw.

But you still say Stitt has done a superb job. This is totally his plan. I would love to know if King Trump speaks on this today. If it fails, Stitt should go back to the corporate world.

One significant detail is that Tulsa is not compliant in any way with CDC guidelines I’m terms of decreased cases, per Bynum. But the state as a whole is. That goes back to rural areas with limited exposure and limited health care resources.

But the wrong nursing home worker goes on a bender in BA and a lot of people get sick. Too much risk, Governor.

 

[Clong83a]

Well there are the people who own/work at the salons and barber shops who are now behind on their rent and mortgage payments.

I agree. But no matter who goes first or last, that will always be the case. Until everything is opened, some people will be on unemployment or be at risk of going out of business. See: Casinos. They employ people and have mortgages to pay too. And they provide important income to tribes, who are really hurting right now. But it would be incredibly stupid to allow those to open up anytime soon because it would be impossible to run a casino safely. How would you disinfect chips and cards after every hand? Even limited to video slots, you'd have to go around and wipe down a machine every time someone moved chairs. It'd just be dumb to take the risks involved with that.

I feel the same way about hair salons, and I don't see how they are "essential". I say that as someone who desperately needs a haircut in a town with one barber that I really don't want to go out of business.

If you can get some places opened up, the list of places that cannot function is smaller, and future recovery bills can be more carefully targeted at industries that have to sit out longer. Like hair salons and casinos.

 

[Clong83a]

Well there are the people who own/work at the salons and barber shops who are now behind on their rent and mortgage payments.

There's also the cynical interpretation of opening up things like this. See this guys facebook post, he's from Georgia:

Kemp mandates restaurants reopen, whether I reopen dining rooms or not. If I file for business interruption insurance, it does not go through since I am "allowed" to operate full capacity. My landlord can demand all their money, since I am allowed to fully operate. Furloughed staff that is collecting unemployment insurance have to come back to work or I have to let them go. Their unemployment insurance then goes on my tab. If things blow up again, they are still on my tab, not on the state's, since they are no longer employed. Guys, this is about screwing the working class and small business, not about helping us.

You can agree with him or not, but the point remains that by allowing businesses to reopen, you put many people in an awkward position if the public isn't ready to frequent your business yet. And it might actually make things worse for some businesses if they can't fly on their own right away.

 

[Gold*]

“Judge, I was just trying to comply with the guidelines. Someone had to launder this here money.”

Honestly, any sort of sanitation at the Oklahoma casinos would cause a major disruption in the space/ time continuum. What are people going to blow their Social Security checks on now? Food? Ha.

 

[lawpoke87]

But you still say Stitt has done a superb job. This is totally his plan. I would love to know if King Trump speaks on this today. If it fails, Stitt should go back to the corporate world.

One significant detail is that Tulsa is not compliant in any way with CDC guidelines I’m terms of decreased cases, per Bynum. But the state as a whole is. That goes back to rural areas with limited exposure and limited health care resources.

But the wrong nursing home worker goes on a bender in BA and a lot of people get sick. Too much risk, Governor.

Would could be like New York and mandate nursing homes take covid-19 positive patients. Look no further than those clowns on how not to manage a pandemic.

Yes, I do still believe Stitt has done a superb job in acquiring resources for the state and creating a supply chain for the same. Just because I would be more cautious doesn’t take away from his work in that important area. If a mayor believes his city doesn’t comply with the CDC guidelines then it is within that mayors authority to maintain the status quo. I assume it will be some time in most states before every city is compliant. We will see cities remain quarantined while other areas of states begin to relax restrictions imo. I expect this to be the norm. There are areas in Oklahoma were we should remain cautious and other areas where more lenient measure would be appropriate.

 

[Gold*]

I don’t believe the mayors can override the governor on this. There’s a weird law on that.

Regardless, as Bynum said, it’s futile to continue because everyone nearby is open. And judging on traffic, business is kind of normalish today. The governor could have lead on this.

I see you trying to qualify your comments to me supply chain, which is one issue among many.

 

[lawpoke87]

If you go back and look at the context which I said the Gov was doing a superb job you will see I was specifically talking about equipment and supply chain. I’m not qualifying anything at this point. It is what I said.

Im not sure keeping Tulsa closed would be futile but it would obviously be less effective since the burbs are open. However, one would believe the more service places you keep closed in a county the less overall risk of spread would apply.

No clue about what authority a mayor has in this situation. I know if a Gov executed and EO to open the state up then said order would override a Mayor’s decision. I’m not sure if Stitt issued an EO.

 

[URedskin54]

I agree. But no matter who goes first or last, that will always be the case. Until everything is opened, some people will be on unemployment or be at risk of going out of business. See: Casinos. They employ people and have mortgages to pay too. And they provide important income to tribes, who are really hurting right now. But it would be incredibly stupid to allow those to open up anytime soon because it would be impossible to run a casino safely. How would you disinfect chips and cards after every hand? Even limited to video slots, you'd have to go around and wipe down a machine every time someone moved chairs. It'd just be dumb to take the risks involved with that.

I feel the same way about hair salons, and I don't see how they are "essential". I say that as someone who desperately needs a haircut in a town with one barber that I really don't want to go out of business.

If you can get some places opened up, the list of places that cannot function is smaller, and future recovery bills can be more carefully targeted at industries that have to sit out longer. Like hair salons and casinos.

I'm not really a fan of the arbitrary nature of how a lot of things have been determined "essential" and "non-essential" and I'm sympathetic to people sitting there wondering why their retail businesses are shut down while a few giant retailers are allowed to keep on going not just selling food. And I don't blame salon owners or anyone else raising hell about being shutdown either honestly. If I were the one staring at bankruptcy, long-term unemployment, and potentially not being able to feed my kids I'd probably be acting like a nutjob right now.

 

[Clong83a]

I'm not really a fan of the arbitrary nature of how a lot of things have been determined "essential" and "non-essential" and I'm sympathetic to people sitting there wondering why their retail businesses are shut down while a few giant retailers are allowed to keep on going not just selling food. And I don't blame salon owners or anyone else raising hell about being shutdown either honestly. If I were the one staring at bankruptcy, long-term unemployment, and potentially not being able to feed my kids I'd probably be acting like a nutjob right now.

Yeah, I hear all of that.

And I agree it is really really unfair to shut down clothing stores and bike stores, but allow Wal-Mart to stay open and sell clothing and bikes in addition to food and other essentials. I don't think every state is allowing big box marts to sell non-essential items, but it seems like most are.

The governor here specifically shut down plant nurseries, but didn't force Lowe's or Home Depot to shut down their greenhouses. It's their money time of year, and a bunch of local nurseries raised hell. I don't blame them. But then the governor actually listened and allowed them to reopen for curbside service. And honestly, given how the Home Depot always looks ridiculously crowded, it's probably actually safer that way.

 

[Rippin]

There is very little meaningful difference between most of the states where governors have issued stay at home orders and most states where they have not. Schools and businesses are closed and most major cities have done their own thing anyway. I'm in El Paso now and my life changed exactly 0% after a stay at home order was issued. Most people in this town don't seem to be listening to it anyway.

We shall see in 6-8 weeks when conservative states with Democrat governors like Illinois or Kentucky or Michigan are not opening up their economy while other conservative states with conservative governors have already passed multiple phases of the re-opening guidelines without noticeable/real increases in the rate of cases/deaths (numbers which we already know are inflated). Actually, we should just look at total deaths by state. That eliminates the trickery of cause of deaths being attributed to covid when if should be counted as being a different cause of death or anything else. There were 15% fewer deaths in March than the average of the previous 4 years (also a 5 year low.)

Those Dem governors, other politicians on the state, local & federal level will have to face the prospect of not being re-elected.

 

[Rippin]

By the way, Kevin, Antron, Raymond, Korey & Yusef ARE GUILTY.

“This was my first rape.” Tf kind of bs?! YOU’RE NOT SUPPOSED TO RAPE! YOU DO NOT GET A PASS BECAUSE IT WAS YOUR FIRST! BLOODY HELL! WHERE TF IS LIAM NEESON?!

 

[Clong83a]

By the way, Kevin, Antron, Raymond, Korey & Yusef ARE GUILTY.

“This was my first rape.” Tf kind of bs?! YOU’RE NOT SUPPOSED TO RAPE! YOU DO NOT GET A PASS BECAUSE IT WAS YOUR FIRST! BLOODY HELL! WHERE TF IS LIAM NEESON?!

View embedded media

I'll grant you that the subject of this thread has drifted some from its original intent. But seriously, WTF? Get help.

 

[URedskin54]

I don't know why this was the one that finally made me hit ignore, but dropping more racial stuff into a pretty civil corona thread was it

 

[Rippin]

By the way, not that I need to counter ANYTHING Gold says BUT I WILL. FOR FUN!

You can make up all types of groups of society. One of such groups could be, idk, straight, gay & trans. They are least likely to be mentally ill, more likely to be mentally ill & most likely to be mentally ill IN THAT ORDER, respectively. That’s just a face. You could break it down to men & women (which is confusing when it comes to trans which means you have to reverse it?)

You can also break it down to political ideology (props to Pew research for demonstrating this one, the world is better for it) - you have very liberal, which is by far most likely to be diagnosed with mental illness. Can you guess which political affiliation is second most likely to be diagnosed with mental illness? It’s liberal. After that it’s moderate/centrist. Then at second least likely to be diagnosed with mental illness is conservative. The LEAST likely group to be diagnosed with a mental illness is very conservative. Yeah.

I can go further. Do you know of which political ideology people are most likely to project? It’s liberals.

Heres another one: I’ll let y’all guess - which political ideology carries the most deceitful people?

Guess.

Im serious, please guess.


Guess who!

Knock knock. Who’s there?

Guess!

Guess who?

IT IS THE LIBERALS AGAIN! Lmao

 

[Gold*]

The Tulsa County Courthouse is supposed to open on May 6. I suppose I had never really thought of this, but the commissioners make the decisions on the building (makes sense). Right now, it sounds like they oppose putting restrictions on who can enter or requiring masks. The staff wants masks.

It’s not clear if filing will be available on May 6 or when the electronic filing will end (I did that and they called about 20 minutes later asking for my credit card info).

Right now, they are planning on having the judges come back May 18. It sounds like hearings will be set after that (although I know some are already set). They are going to encourage people not to be there. It’s also hopefully to cut down on some of the backwater shenanigans that go on, but that’s not bad, either. There are some people who just hang out there and wait until everyone is gone to try to talk to the judge.

No jury trials until August.

The OK Supreme Court is supposed to issue an order on Friday explaining some of these things and they are apparently subject to change.

There is going to be a boilerplate continuance order. I’m sure attorneys will have heart burn.

 

[lawpoke87]

Assuming everything goes well these next several weeks I anticipate May 18th will see a significant amount openings across the state. We’ve been e filing everything with the larger county clerks’ offices for the past year so this hasn’t been much of a change. The Hee Haw counties remain a challenge. No idea what’s being done with our mail in filings in those.

 

[HuffyCane]

If you go back and look at the context which I said the Gov was doing a superb job you will see I was specifically talking about equipment and supply chain. I’m not qualifying anything at this point. It is what I said.

Im not sure keeping Tulsa closed would be futile but it would obviously be less effective since the burbs are open. However, one would believe the more service places you keep closed in a county the less overall risk of spread would apply.

No clue about what authority a mayor has in this situation. I know if a Gov executed and EO to open the state up then said order would override a Mayor’s decision. I’m not sure if Stitt issued an EO.

Here you go ...

https://www.sos.ok.gov/documents/executive/1919.pdf

BTW Bynum basically only has the power Stitt lets him have and the feds can pre-empt it all under Title 42. That’s all I can say here.

 

[ctt8410]

After spending several hours on this, I think the “best data available” is pretty poor. I would love to know what @ctt8410 thinks, but understand he may not want to venture into this.

The quality of the data has improved tremendously since this all started with the exception of some systematic quirks (the weekend lag, city vs state reporting, state-to-state differences) and it will continue to steadily improve. There will also be a significant amount of work to retroactively fill gaps which may take years. We still don't have a firm grasp on the scope and impact of asymptomatic carriers. There will be PhDs earned from working through all of this data.

Contrary to others here, I also believe the publicly available modeling has been very good and it's been extremely helpful in informing the decision-making around this issue, publicly and privately. It's very easy to complain that a model missed without recognizing the huge difference a single day or single change in behavior makes or acknowledging how probabilistic Bayesian logic is the best approach to these scenarios.

None of that means that the decisions around how and when to re-open are easy. But it's encouraging that those conversations are starting to happen in earnest this past week. It's obvious now that this thing spreads as quickly as we initially feared, but it doesn't appear to be as deadly as we initially feared. That's information that we didn't have a month ago.

All of us want to be done with this mess (Except maybe Rippin. That dude's long gone.) and I actually think collectively we've done a good job. It's easy to point out some of the bad actors and some of the morons in charge, but it's easy because they're the exception. This was a disaster and it's gonna take a long time to get back, but hopefully we're headed in the right direction now.

Now I'm gonna go open a beer and listen to some Townes van Zandt. Because I gave up whiskey when I had a second kid and Dylan hasn't been the same for me since I paid a not insignificant portion of my grad student stipend to watch him sleepwalk through a live show in 2007.

 

[Gold*]

The quality of the data has improved tremendously since this all started with the exception of some systematic quirks (the weekend lag, city vs state reporting, state-to-state differences) and it will continue to steadily improve. There will also be a significant amount of work to retroactively fill gaps which may take years. We still don't have a firm grasp on the scope and impact of asymptomatic carriers. There will be PhDs earned from working through all of this data.

Contrary to others here, I also believe the publicly available modeling has been very good and it's been extremely helpful in informing the decision-making around this issue, publicly and privately. It's very easy to complain that a model missed without recognizing the huge difference a single day or single change in behavior makes or acknowledging how probabilistic Bayesian logic is the best approach to these scenarios.

None of that means that the decisions around how and when to re-open are easy. But it's encouraging that those conversations are starting to happen in earnest this past week. It's obvious now that this thing spreads as quickly as we initially feared, but it doesn't appear to be as deadly as we initially feared. That's information that we didn't have a month ago.

All of us want to be done with this mess (Except maybe Rippin. That dude's long gone.) and I actually think collectively we've done a good job. It's easy to point out some of the bad actors and some of the morons in charge, but it's easy because they're the exception. This was a disaster and it's gonna take a long time to get back, but hopefully we're headed in the right direction now.

Now I'm gonna go open a beer and listen to some Townes van Zandt. Because I gave up whiskey when I had a second kid and Dylan hasn't been the same for me since I paid a not insignificant portion of my grad student stipend to watch him sleepwalk through a live show in 2007.

That wasn’t the one at Cain’s? I was so excited and it blew chunks.

Townes sounds good, too.

Thanks for your input. I still think Oklahoma is setting itself up for a second wave. Maybe it’s bad and maybe not.

About 70% of the people on my video call today were 65ish or over. I worry about them.

Have you looked the Oklahoma information? It reminds me of some sorority girl resumes. Thin and intentionally not telling you things. I guess that’s a lot of sorority girls I knew at TU.