Record prediction
- Thread starter TULSARISING
- Start date
Yeah....I hope those Blue&Gold glasses are not blurring TULSARISING's perspective...
20 maybe, but that would require us to win big in the OOC schedule...
We will be better, and the thing that really encourages me in that regard is the fact
that not only will our starting five be improved (+scott, Jeffries), but the first five off the
bench will be significantly better (Joiner, Magnay/Igbanu, Artison/Korita, & Henderson/
Jackson, ....Given Haith's M.O. of subbing early and often in the first half, the team of
subs we had last season was sometimes lethal, if not fatal...
This team should be capable of better shooting, and fewer turnovers.....
In the meantime let's hope TR's predictions are not too far off.....
Depends on who we play. Woj would schedule 20 wins. Haith would rather play a tough RPI schedule.
I think we get Osu and oru this year, if we aren't dancing in March, I think it's time for a new coach
I predicted 20 wins in an earlier thread and I'm sticking to it. 23? That's a nice goal but the league will be tougher than ever. 20 isn't a guarantee for the dance anymore but if we can keep from losing to ECU, USF, and Tulane we should have a good enough RPI and be in the mix.
There is not any way we won't be better than last year. If we are not good enough to do better than last year's record against better competition, then there is room to complain. If we pull 17 wins(which we should surpass) then Haith is safe for next year. (but on the semi-hot seat)
We only lose Edogi.(Birt,Atson,&Battle are good losses) We will be more experienced at most spots, healthier in a couple of spots, and have better replacements/additions in most if not all spots.
How could we be worse or the same?
We only lose Edogi.(Birt,Atson,&Battle are good losses) We will be more experienced at most spots, healthier in a couple of spots, and have better replacements/additions in most if not all spots.
How could we be worse or the same?
Yes, I think so....I think the upper middle and middle (Tulsa, Memphis, UCF,
UConn, Temple) should all be improved with the exception of Memphis...
Tubby has had tons of personnel turnover, and their team is uncertain at
best....Tulsa, Temple & UConn should all be significantly improved.....
The Elites: SMU less Ojeleye but with more depth may be off a little but still
very competitive....Cincinnati's young players looked awfully good to me...
They may be the favorites in the conf (other than Wichita)..Wichita is loaded,
bringing back almost all of last year's very good team...Houston is
unpredictable, but has the personnel to be good again....
The lower three (USF, Tulane & ECU) are tough to figure, but mostly were
young.....Hard to tell which one might emerge our of the bottom spots...
With the addition of Wichita, the conf. is definitely better...If they were not
factored in, I still think the upper two-thirds of the conference (again with
the exception of Memphis) will be improved.....
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UCONN is an enigma. They have A talent but I am not sold that Ollie is a good coach
UCF- they're Tacko and that's about all and you can still beat them with him on the floor. They lost the guy that killed us.
We will need to be better in D, especially on the perimeter, and we need to be a consistently better rebounding team. The thing that killed me last year was how good we could look at times and then the same five look awful. And it was never the same problem twice in a row. It was sort of like Birt's season- things went wrong but you didn't quite know how to fix it because it was always different. I really think Jeffries brings a little Eric Coley with him, doing little things to help the team win, grinding out defensive possessions, grabbing loose balls, and fighting like mad for rebounds when we need it most. That's where games are won...win the little battles to win the war.
And I agree with whoever mentioned Cincinnati. They lose a couple of guys but the young guys they had are stellar.
UCF- they're Tacko and that's about all and you can still beat them with him on the floor. They lost the guy that killed us.
We will need to be better in D, especially on the perimeter, and we need to be a consistently better rebounding team. The thing that killed me last year was how good we could look at times and then the same five look awful. And it was never the same problem twice in a row. It was sort of like Birt's season- things went wrong but you didn't quite know how to fix it because it was always different. I really think Jeffries brings a little Eric Coley with him, doing little things to help the team win, grinding out defensive possessions, grabbing loose balls, and fighting like mad for rebounds when we need it most. That's where games are won...win the little battles to win the war.
And I agree with whoever mentioned Cincinnati. They lose a couple of guys but the young guys they had are stellar.
Yes....The thing you could most accurately say about last season's team was
that it was unpredictable....Earlier in the season, when Birt and Korita were
shooting in the 15-25% range, and Henderson and Wheeler were hemorrhaging
turnovers, you sometimes would wonder how we could win at all...
Things changed somewhat around the semester break, and we got off to a
good start in conference....Etou was rebounding and scoring, Magnay,
before his nagging injury, was a defensive force, Taplin was steady at PG,
Igbanu kept improving, and Henderson starting hitting a few threes...We
had some good wins, but we had neither the overall talent nor experience
to be much of a factor in the conference race as it progressed....The
heartbreaking loss to Cinn. at home, after apparently having the game in
hand, seemed to send us in a downward spiral...
We are hopeful that an infusion of talent at the 2 guard and wing, plus the
additional year's experience for our young 'bigs' will make a significant
difference in our performance....If things 'click', and are lucky on injuries,
we have a chance to be significantly better.....
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We better. That OOC schedule is a Doug Wojcik schedule. K State is supposed to take a big step back this season. OSU isn't exactly a powerhouse and they have the FBI and NCAA thing hanging over them. Illinois State won't be nearly at the level they were last season. ORU is under a new HC. Honestly if we lose more than one game in the OOC I'll be very disappointed.
You know, it may not help our RPI, but this kind of schedule may be exactly what this team needs to build some.confidence
T
Our conference holds Cinn, SMU, the Shockers , UConn , and Temple. We need to get a swagger about us in non conference. Beating Kansas State and Oklahoma State will be a great boost coming into conference.
This.
Our conference holds Cinn, SMU, the Shockers , UConn , and Temple. We need to get a swagger about us in non conference. Beating Kansas State and Oklahoma State will be a great boost coming into conference.
You're going to be very disappointed then. If you follow TU basketball long enough you know we have at least one "Wtf?" loss every season. Even the 2000 Elite Eight squad lost to ORU. We'll be fine.
Nathan "f-ing" Binam...and a ridiculous charge call on Heard after he caught the inbounds pass that made the Binam play possible. That (and the UNC) game were the only 2 times that entire season we looked a little lost on the offensive end.
My current expectations are 9-3 in the nonconference. League record at 10-8. 1-1 in the tourney to make it 20-12 overall. That's a 5-game improvement over last season. And we'll return 4 starters next year while adding Horne and Moore to the rotation.
And losing Wheeler, Etou, and Henderson. I don't really see the team being much better next season unless they get a player of higher caliber as the last addition to our class (or there's more attrition). Horne seems like he's going to be a Etou type when he finally gets on the court. Moore has to show more than he did at SLU. Hoping our last recruit is a diamond in the rough.
Of all college basketball cliches, I buy the freshman to sophomore jump the most.
No offense to Henderson or Wheeler, but I think the Joiner/Jackson/Horne/Moore class takes a leap that easily surpasses their production this year.
No offense to Henderson or Wheeler, but I think the Joiner/Jackson/Horne/Moore class takes a leap that easily surpasses their production this year.
We shall see. I think the sophomore jump usually has a lot more to do with increased playing time more than anything else. Especially for kids that were regulars in tough AAU leagues where they were playing against quality competition before they even got to college.
There's examples on both sides. I think Taplin went from 2.6 to 9 ppg but he also had his minutes more than tripled between his freshman and sophomore year. That's decent improvement in per minute production but it's nothing to write home about. On the other hand you have guys like Ben Uzoh who came into a bad situation and learned from it as freshman under heavy minutes and really came back their sophomore years ready to play and drastically improved. I'm hoping Moore is an Uzoh but I don't see it yet. I expect Horne to be similar to Etou but not quite as far along. I think Jackson has the biggest upside from a development standpoint.
Decided to run a query on this to back up my suspicions with some numbers. I found 30 players in all of D1 basketball last year that played 10+mpg as freshmen, then transferred and sat out a year before playing for their new team. (Comparable to our situation with Scott, Moore, and Horne)
15 of those players transferred into a better conference, 11 of them transferred down, and 4 transferred to a roughly equal conference.
On average, those players increased their scoring by 64%, steals by 33%, assists by 26%, and rebounding by 24% despite playing just 6% more minutes at their new school. The huge scoring increase was driven by an increase in overall FG% of ~3 points on 39% more shots per game.
15 of those players transferred into a better conference, 11 of them transferred down, and 4 transferred to a roughly equal conference.
On average, those players increased their scoring by 64%, steals by 33%, assists by 26%, and rebounding by 24% despite playing just 6% more minutes at their new school. The huge scoring increase was driven by an increase in overall FG% of ~3 points on 39% more shots per game.
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I'd love to see the %'s broken down by the players that transferred up, and the players that transferred down / equal. Also, there has to be more than 30 players that fit that criterion with the hundreds of transfers we see each season these days.
It could be argued we have one player in each of those categories, Horne down (B-10 to American), Scott up (CUSA to American), and Moore lateral (A-10 to American).
You might have missed his criterion of 10+ minutes per game. Most freshmen don’t play that many minutes. I’m pretty sure Scott did, I don’t know about the other two.
Around 800 players transferred that year, but only 30 of them were freshmen who played more than 10 minutes per game and transferred D1 to D1. The search did need a little manual intervention so it's possible I missed a couple. Otherwise, I would have extended it to the past 5 years or so.
The players who transferred up went from averaging 8.1/2.4/1.3 in 25 minutes per game on 49%/35%/76% to around 10/2.9/1.2 in 24 minutes per game on 48%/40%/76%. So, more efficient with similar playing time.
The players who transferred even or down went from averaging 6.6/2.4/0.7 in 19 minutes per game on 47%/32%/68% to around 9.6/3.6/1.8 in 26 minutes per game on 50%/34%/74%. So, more efficient with more playing time.
Also, ORtg went from 97 to 105 on average. Both Moore and Horne finished in that range as freshmen.
The players who transferred up went from averaging 8.1/2.4/1.3 in 25 minutes per game on 49%/35%/76% to around 10/2.9/1.2 in 24 minutes per game on 48%/40%/76%. So, more efficient with similar playing time.
The players who transferred even or down went from averaging 6.6/2.4/0.7 in 19 minutes per game on 47%/32%/68% to around 9.6/3.6/1.8 in 26 minutes per game on 50%/34%/74%. So, more efficient with more playing time.
Also, ORtg went from 97 to 105 on average. Both Moore and Horne finished in that range as freshmen.
And freshmen that play that many minutes rarely have a reason to transfer. They're usually guys like Jamel McLean or Eric McClellan.
Horne averaged 11.8mpg as a freshman
Moore averaged 20.8mpg as a freshman
Scott averaged 24.7mpg as a freshman
How dare somebody like ctt8410, throw out statistics.
Being such an expert on everything, I completely understand why Aston popped off an unresearched questioning of his statistical capabilities. It's not like Ctt's ever done it before.
Never learns from a mistake he's made before and had pointed out to him. You can't help but stepping in it over and over.
Being such an expert on everything, I completely understand why Aston popped off an unresearched questioning of his statistical capabilities. It's not like Ctt's ever done it before.
Never learns from a mistake he's made before and had pointed out to him. You can't help but stepping in it over and over.
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No one ever talks about Jeffries. That's who I am most interested in. I'd be interested to know how the new guys look from someone who has seen a practice.
I'm sure you've aiready seen it, but I.I. had him pushing for a starting spot, and said the following after watching practice...
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Thanks for tipping me off. I don't always read the free board before the season. I figure it's mostly Rivalcane/ some weird Russian bot that posts thugs for no reason. And the rest is therapy for MartinAston.
